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Charles Fischer

The Domino the Pac-12 Was Waiting For: Big Ten Reaches its Media Deal

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From the FishDuck Feed, thanks to everyone placing articles in it!  The deal worth 1.2 Billion per year?  Whew!  Good gosh, look at the numbers per school...and I do not see a streaming deal in there with anyone, let alone the biggies.  Between them and ESPN...the Pac-12 has options, and the B1G has established the pricing.  But...

 

"It's P2 [Power Two] and everybody else," said an FBS source familiar with TV negotiations. "I don't know why anybody is using P5 [Power Five] anymore."

 

Thoughts?  

 

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WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM

Marquee Big Ten football games will be showcased across three broadcast windows on Saturdays

 

Mr. FishDuck

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This seems like huge news for the Ducks and Pac 12, no? ESPN won't have a Power 5 team in the Pacific or Mountain time zones. Doesn't this open the door for the Pac 12? ESPN will have holes in its schedule. Let's see what the new Pac 12 commissioner can do. My hunch is that conference expansion possibilities were also on hold to see what happened with ESPN and Big 10. If ESPN wants Southern California back in the mix, San Diego State is definitely in play. 

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On 8/18/2022 at 9:39 AM, Drex Heikes said:

This seems like huge news for the Ducks and Pac 12, no? ESPN won't have a Power 5 team in the Pacific or Mountain time zones. Doesn't this open the door for the Pac 12? ESPN will have holes in its schedule. Let's see what the new Pac 12 commissioner can do. My hunch is that conference expansion possibilities were also on hold to see what happened with ESPN and Big 10. If ESPN wants Southern California back in the mix, San Diego State is definitely in play. 

Yeah but ESPN could be the only bidder, so that doesn't give the Pac much leverage unless GK figures out a way to get other entities involved (which he has stated as a goal).  Not sure who though, streaming is a possibility for sure, maybe CBS since they're losing all their SEC games?

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On 8/18/2022 at 12:39 PM, Drex Heikes said:

This seems like huge news for the Ducks and Pac 12, no? ESPN won't have a Power 5 team in the Pacific or Mountain time zones. Doesn't this open the door for the Pac 12? ESPN will have holes in its schedule.

Funny you ask, Drex. The following article just posted to the FishDuck Feed answers many of your questions. Now that the Big 10 Media Deal is done, this leaves the futures of the PAC-12 and Big 12 hanging in the balance. ESPN now has a chance to become somewhat of a "kingmaker" regarding these leagues.

 

This is a good detailed article about where things stand regarding media and future realignment. The first part deals with how Big 10 expansion could open the door for additional revenue and broadcast partners. Though conference realignment has slowed, it could certainly open up in short order (more PAC-12 schools?)

 

As you read further into the article, it gets into the particulars regarding the PAC-12. Highly recommended read.

 

 

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Though conference realignment has slowed, it could certainly pick back up in short order

 

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I expect Utah and Colrado and both Arizona Schools to join BIG 12.  Or just the Arizona Schools.  But I believe we lose at least two more schools fairly soon.  I'm beginning to think were the weakest "power 5" conference money wise.  I just hope we get an invite to the BIG now. 

 

 

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Could this lead to a "BigPac"... ?

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A great article Pennsylvania Duck, and thanks from everyone for being a major player in the launch of the FishDuck Feed!

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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The crazy part is the B1G Ten signing on with NBC for the prime time slot.  If they really wanted ND, they wouldn't have signed with NBC.  All the talk about NBC and ND was as a stand alone, ND isn't as valuable.  Now that NBC can have ND as the 3/3:30 game, before the B1G Ten game, ND became that much more valuable.

 

Big 12 TV deal wasn't better than Pac 12s.  Losing Texas and Oklahoma is as bad as losing USC/UCLA.  I don't see any Pac 12 school moving to the Big 12, unless more Pac 12 schools get invited to the B1G Ten.

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From Canzano on this subject and his thoughts on UCLA situation.

 

Pac-12 certainly will need to make concessions with Oregon and Washington as well as an easy out clause, it seems to me, 'when' not if the Big 10 comes knocking.  That clause will include Stanford and Cal.

 

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Conference must play defense with Oregon, Washington, and others.

 

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$1.2 billion annually is a big number but let's put it in context.  I assume that figure is for the final year of the contract, seven years from now.  ESPN reports "The Big Ten is projected to eventually distribute $80 million to $100 million per year to each of its 16 members.", the key word being 'eventually'.  The $80 million figure and 16 teams is the 1.2 billion, but that may not be happening until the end of the decade.

 

What will be the purchasing power of the $1.2 billion and $80 million per school in 2029-30 after seven years inflation? The US Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator indicates if won't be as dramatic increase as it appears.

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There are reports that the payout will increase if the BIG10 adds more schools and is not done expanding. If true we all know what that means. The Ducks and the 3 other schools probably jump. They have to, no other choice. When that happens the 4 corner schools will jump towards the BIG12 and what I and a lot of other folks have been saying will happen. The PAC 12 will either fold or become G5.

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For the PAC to survive, it seems that they will have to embrace the Friday night and Saturday night 7:00 pm Pacific game times.  The obvious downside is that no one east of Denver be watching.   This will provide inventory for the television carriers.  I1t will also come at a much reduced price compared to the Big 10 and the SEC.

 

We have all read and commented on the various missteps of the Pac-12 the past few years.  Lots of blame to go around.  However, the biggest obstacle, and perhaps the ultimate downfall of the conference, is being primarily located in the Pacific Time Zone.  Television now drives everything. 

 

With all that in mind I still believe the best choice moving forward is a merger with the Big 12.  I know many and perhaps most will disagree.  Being born and raised in Oregon, and now living in Texas, I have a perspective that may be different from most on this board. 

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This is good news for Oregon. It makes it much more likely that the Ducks and the Huskies get an invite to the B1G, or would suggest uneven distribution in Oregon's favor for however long the Pac 10 exists. The door being left open for ESPN if the B1G expands would be the cause of that uplifting news.

 

Oregon would be sitting shotgun or driving the current Pac, but I'd rather sit in the middle seat of the B1G, or even the trunk! 

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