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How UCLA’s Win Streak Will End in Autzen

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Our Oregon Ducks Football program gets another chance to make a big, national splash by beating the Bruins tomorrow in Autzen. However, a win’s not going to come easily. This season has been unlike anything we’ve seen from the Bruins in the better part of a decade. UCLA’s been hot from the jump, and it comes as a bit of ...

 
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Our Oregon Ducks Football program has a chance to make a big, national splash by beating the Bruins tomorrow in Autzen. Here's how...
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Alex, thanks for the article. Your thoughts and analysis create a great recipe for a Duck victory over the Bruins. All the ingredients you spelled out are in place for the Ducks to bring the Bruins win streak to a close.

 

I would only add that the Ducks D needs to step up and defend the home turf. Defend it with smart play and violence. Get the home crowd involved early and often. Yes, the Bruins are good but their record and stats are built on a strength of schedule in the 100's. This is their first and biggest road test game of 2022.

 

The rain could be a factor but i do not expect this to be a close game. The Bruins lalaland fantasy will come to an end. GO DUCKS.......

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I enjoyed the read, thank you.  I too believe pressuring DTR is the key.  
 

I don’t know if it has been discussed much, but I watched the Utah game several times. 

Chips team is in shape.  Like the old Oregon teams. I do not want to be in a close game the second half 
 

Take away the garbage 14 points in fourth quarter, and UCLA held Utah to 18 points. 

 

It’s going to be raining, so it may come down to which D can stop the run, and who’s offense can hang onto a wet football.  
 

I always enjoy your writing.  

 

Go Ducks 

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Run the ball, stop the run, pressure the QB.
 

Those three usually produce victory. Ducks are awfully good at two. 
 

Making DTR uncomfortable and even putting him on the turf early is the difference maker. If he can escape the pocket or get time it might be a track meet. 

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The same team that put up 31 pts on the Bruins in Pasadena and narrowly lost that game by 1 pt, also lost at home yesterday to Troy.  The final score being 10 - 6.  I didn’t watch the game, so I don’t know all the details.  
 

I don’t know if there is anything to take away from South Alabama’s loss or if we should treat it like the Ducks’ Georgia game and give the Bruins a pass for an unimpressive escape. 

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Of the five factors Oregon will need to win at (in the above article) the one that jumps out to me is #4: 'WILL THIS  DUCK DEFENSE KEEP DTR UNDER PRESSURE ?'  It jumped out because, so far this season, the Ducks have not really been able to do this consistently with any team, other than perhaps EWU and even there they didn't get many sacks.

 

Kelly will have his offense playing fast with DTR making quick, high-percentage throws to prevent the defense from disrupting the flow.  If it was a challenge for Oregon to get to the QB before , it will be a mountain of a challenge this weekend.  The defense will have to shutdown Charbonett (< 75 yds.+-) and put UCLA in longer 3rd downs forcing the Bruins to throw more to get pressure on DTR...  leading right  into #3: CAN THE DUCKS GET THE BRUINS OFF THE FIELD ON 3RD DOWN?

 

All 5 are important, I see this one as the hardest of the five for them to accomplish and therefore the most important.  If the Ducks can't get the bruins off the field on 3rd down, it's going to be a long day for Oregon and a lot of points are going up on that scoreboard, imo.  A lot on the wrong side.

 

 

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Last year, after seeing UCLA run through LSU, we were worried about Charbonnet. The Ducks however would shut down his running game and hold him to a mere 35 yds.  
 

I am not so confident that this defense will be able to deliver similar results tomorrow.  We don’t have KT anymore to disrupt their offense and put a beating on DTR which forced him to leave the game early.  
 

Also, Sewell hasn’t been the stout, instinctual, RB stopper that he was, a season ago. His size and strength made it possible for him to topple the bigger downhill RBs like Charbonnet. 
 

I am not so concerned with the offense being able to generate points as I am about the defense getting stops. I fully expect this to be a shootout, if the weather permits.  So it will be paramount for the defense to win the turnover battle and get stops. 

 

DTR looks lethal this season, making plays and protecting the ball.  The defense has to apply pressure early and rattle him. But other than the obvious, Dorlus, where does the pass rush come from?  

 

If it is not pouring, DL needs to unleash his repertoire of blitz packages in this game. I liked what he did the last game, with Williams rushing off the edge. It paid off big time!  I want to see more of that with new wrinkles.  

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On 10/21/2022 at 5:54 AM, DuckIt said:

The same team that put up 31 pts on the Bruins in Pasadena and narrowly lost that game by 1 pt, also lost at home yesterday to Troy.  The final score being 10 - 6.  I didn’t watch the game, so I don’t know all the details.  
 

I don’t know if there is anything to take away from South Alabama’s loss or if we should treat it like the Ducks’ Georgia game and give the Bruins a pass for an unimpressive escape. 

Interesting Question.  If South Alabama were to play UCLA today would it be a 1 point game? 
 

IF Oregon played Georgia today would there be a different outcome? 
 

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On 10/21/2022 at 7:17 AM, debbieduck said:

Interesting Question.  If South Alabama were to play UCLA today would it be a 1 point game? 
 

IF Oregon played Georgia today would there be a different outcome? 
 

I don't know about the 1st question but I could make a reasonable guess about your 2nd: Yes.  In fact, bring them to Oregon and it would be a lot different, imo.

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On 10/21/2022 at 5:46 AM, Vandownbytheriverduck said:

Run the ball, stop the run, pressure the QB.
 

Those three usually produce victory. Ducks are awfully good at two. 
 

Making DTR uncomfortable and even putting him on the turf early is the difference maker. If he can escape the pocket or get time it might be a track meet. 

Let's hope we can stick to those fundamentals you touched on and keep the LA kid out of his element in Autzen. Especially since it never rains. The worries I touched on about Nix in a track meet is if he'll rely too heavily on his legs instead of his arm, but we'll see if we can brew up enough success early on defense to avoid a track meet. 

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On 10/21/2022 at 3:37 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Alex, thanks for the article. Your thoughts and analysis create a great recipe for a Duck victory over the Bruins. All the ingredients you spelled out are in place for the Ducks to bring the Bruins win streak to a close.

 

I would only add that the Ducks D needs to step up and defend the home turf. Defend it with smart play and violence. Get the home crowd involved early and often. Yes, the Bruins are good but their record and stats are built on a strength of schedule in the 100's. This is their first and biggest road test game of 2022.

 

The rain could be a factor but i do not expect this to be a close game. The Bruins lalaland fantasy will come to an end. GO DUCKS.......

You are right: home crowd needs to be a piece of the team tomorrow. And since it never rains in Autzen, it should only be a factor for those LA boys. For a first test as you said with their strength of schedule, Oregon's a tough straw to draw. I imagine if they can't handle the rain and the atmosphere, we'll pound the rock until the Bruins call it quits.

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On 10/21/2022 at 5:25 AM, debbieduck said:

I enjoyed the read, thank you.  I too believe pressuring DTR is the key.  
 

I don’t know if it has been discussed much, but I watched the Utah game several times. 

Chips team is in shape.  Like the old Oregon teams. I do not want to be in a close game the second half 
 

Take away the garbage 14 points in fourth quarter, and UCLA held Utah to 18 points. 

 

It’s going to be raining, so it may come down to which D can stop the run, and who’s offense can hang onto a wet football.  
 

I always enjoy your writing.  

 

Go Ducks 

Thank you, Debbie!

 

Hope you enjoy the game.

 

Yes! Utah looked pretty inept against the Bruins, and without that late-game pick-6, it'd look even worse. I love what DTR has been doing for them. Now, it's time for the Ducks to give them a bit of a reality check in Autzen.

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Chip's had an extra week to prepare too...Autzen will definitely help us.  This will be the best offense sUCLA has seen, I expect our D to step up too.  Their toughest game of the season by far so far...we've experienced Georgia.  We win.

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On 10/21/2022 at 10:33 AM, JDuck said:

Chip's had an extra week to prepare too...Autzen will definitely help us.  This will be the best offense sUCLA has seen, I expect our D to step up too.  Their toughest game of the season by far so far...we've experienced Georgia.  We win.

Playing Georgia makes playing UCLA look like a cakewalk. Let's fire on all cylinders and knock the Bruins off.

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All I know is I won’t be watching the game because I can’t handle the stress and anxiety.  I believe the Ducks can most certainly beat UCLA but my biggest fear is DTR’s ability to carve up the secondary a la UGA.  Maybe I’m living in the pre-Lanning world (e.g., @ Stanford PTSD)
 

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