Okay, This Is Just Scary!

[30Duck]

Make sure you're sitting down before you read this article from 247sports.com

[UtahDuck]

Reading that article is hard... mostly because it is bad. 

Like they give concessions away that USC has a horrid offensive line(True) but then pretend that because ASU returns so much talent they will be good. ASU had a horrible offensive line. and while it was technically improved in 20 over 19, they didn't play anyone. they allowed 6 sacks playing the number 12, 10, 6 and 4 defenses in the conference...

It's Like when people talked about Cal returning the most on offense, Mediocre is still mediocre. ASU will consistently be a pac south middling team. They don't have the coaching staff, they don't have the resources and they can't win the in state recruiting(no one in AZ wants to keep living in Phoenix when LA is offering).

[Trevor]

Not scary to me. Oregon "could" do what happened last year... have those What??? Huh?? What just happened games. There is likely always one game (based on a fair amount history) where that could or even will happen, yet again. I just don't think so this year. Oregon is bringing in the consensus best WRs and TEs, and almost best RBs as well as great O-Line additions.

They were already loaded on defense, perhaps a little wet on depth. What they added makes them scary good with talent (on paper) with respect to Defensive

Combined with Covid, lack of practice, a new O-Line, a sketchy QB, no time to for Moorehead to implement the new offense, and Avalos doing weird changes (like the d-line backing way off)... I just think there are too many reasons why they will actually improve this year.  Seeing how Shough just left... I take that as positive news. Clearly, he doubted he would win out. Saw the writing on the wall. Same with Cyrus. He struggled for time with last year's RBs. Oregon just added two top 20 RBs that seem like near perfect additions. 

On paper, Oregon D is really scary good. Looking at Deruyters' record of first year improvement. I suspect they start looking like their talent level. I will be shocked if there isn't noticable improvement. Especially with QB pressure, sacks and blitzes. He aggressive and the talent matches his schemes very well.

Yes, it "could" happen. Washington could win the north and Arizona State the south. I actually think Arizona State, or even UCLA (if they actually step up again like last year) could win the south. Of course Utah is always looming too.

I'm not high on USC for this reason: been saying for years that too many players pick USC for the wrong reasons (Wanna do a lot of partying and playing in the area). Covid closed down the social places they go to distract them. That was a big benefit last year. Predicted it would help them. If social activities open up for USC, I expect a significant dip in performance. If it opens right near the start of the season... see yah! Nothing will stop many of them from letting loose. When I look at how many of the games they "won" don't really reflect on game performance (should have lost at least three of those games). I'm going to be surprised if they win the south. In my book, they are more likely to flounder than excel.

If I were to pick/guess... it will be Oregon versus the Sun Devils. If USC manages to make it through.. so be it. If Utah or UCLA.. so be it. 

[Trevor]

2 minutes ago, UtahDuck said:

Reading that article is hard... mostly because it is bad. 

Like they give concessions away that USC has a horrid offensive line(True) but then pretend that because ASU returns so much talent they will be good. ASU had a horrible offensive line. and while it was technically improved in 20 over 19, they didn't play anyone. they allowed 6 sacks playing the number 12, 10, 6 and 4 defenses in the conference...

It's Like when people talked about Cal returning the most on offense, Mediocre is still mediocre. ASU will consistently be a pac south middling team. They don't have the coaching staff, they don't have the resources and they can't win the in state recruiting(no one in AZ wants to keep living in Phoenix when LA is offering).

Disagree. I think ASU is hampered by recruiting. What Herm is doing should not be overlooked. I am certainly not wagering money on them., but USC just got lucky (IMHO). See my other post on why I really think USC will take a dip down.

[FishIceCream]

Bottom line is don't sleep on any team in the Pac 12 or you will get beat. Pride comes before the etc. etc.

[UtahDuck]

4 minutes ago, Trevor said:

 What Herm is doing should not be overlooked. 

what is Herm doing? in three season's herm is barely above 50% in wins(56%) and has a 50% record in conference neither statistic is significantly better than what they did under Graham. 19 of ASU's games have been decided by 1 TD or less and ASU does and he is sitting just sub 50% in that statistic as well.

I think people confuse him being a likeable and understanding guy to meaning he will be a good coach. but they don't recognize their recruiting this season fell off a cliff because he fired both coordinators in the same offseason(Something small schools just can't get away with.) He has had 2 first round WR's in his tenure yet he hasn't had a top pac offense. He has had great RB's Benjamin and Rachaad white. ASU has potential I just don't think Herm will improve anymore than what happened under graham.

[30Duck]

5 minutes ago, UtahDuck said:

what is Herm doing?

This, and the rest of your post is what I thought when Herm got the job, the success he has had at ASU have exceeded my expectations. 

[UtahDuck]

32 minutes ago, 30Duck said:

the success he has had at ASU have exceeded my expectations. 

I absolutely believe he has succeeded my expectations as well, I thought he has a big flop of a hire... but just exceeding the bare minimum of expectations doesn't mean ASU is the best team in the south or even on a path to excellence. 

In the south I'd put USC, UCLA and UTAH above ASU. just my opinion though.

[30Duck]

1 hour ago, UtahDuck said:

In the south I'd put USC, UCLA and UTAH above ASU. just my opinion though.

Utah and Whittingham is the opposite of ASU and Herm, and I think the success of the two programs bear that out. Utah has over-exceeded expectations since they joined the Pac-12, Utah is THE team you look past at your peril. Whittingham is a great fit there, and I don't think that Utah ever needed to worry about him leaving for another job. 

[Charles Fischer]

The point about both ASU and Washington being experienced--is a very good one and quite valid.  But Oregon returns a ton of experience as well and will make a good run for it.  If the Ducks can answer the questions that most of us have on our minds....(most of which is about the coaches than the players)....then....

        So we lose our home game with the Huskies....that's fair!

[Aix11]

Well, the discussion and speculation about Pac-12 rivalry is always interesting but how about some thoughts on our second non-conference game next year? Will our lines be ready to take on the Buckeyes?

[C J]

3 hours ago, Aix11 said:

Well, the discussion and speculation about Pac-12 rivalry is always interesting but how about some thoughts on our second non-conference game next year? Will our lines be ready to take on the Buckeyes?

No....highly improbable to very unlikely.

Not much to talk about, I think we get taken to the wood shed @ tOSU next September. The sooner we come to terms with that fact the easier it will be when it's happening.

[ChicoDuck]

18 hours ago, 30Duck said:

Make sure you're sitting down before you read this article from 247sports.com

Here are where Washington and Arizona State finished in the Recruiting Rankings the last four years from 2021, 2020, 2019 and 2018. These recruiting classes will form the backbone of this coming seasons rosters. 

Washington: 35,  17, 16, 16

Arizona State: 53, 23, 28, 36

Now look at Oregon and USC...

Oregon: 6, 11, 7, 13

USC: 8, 64, 20, 4

USC had a couple of down years, but they still have a decided talent advantage over ASU. 

And the "Match Up" between Oregon and Washington? It's not even close, and the gulf in talent is widening.

Talent matters.

 

[1Funduck]

"No conference promises to be more competitive than the Pac-12 in 2021. "

That statement stood out to me. UW, UO, Cal, Utah, USC, UCLA, ASU, all look like more than capable teams. To win the PAC? Thats probably down to 5-6 teams. Every team is capable. I have questions with Cal but can see all the other teams putting up fights and capable of winning. Its going to be a healthy year for the PAC IMO.

[Haywarduck]

When the article stated, "The Ducks reached the Pac-12 title only because Washington couldn’t play" I about choked on my coffee. The dogs could claim they might have won the Pac-12 title because they didn't come to Eugene to play the Ducks, end of story.

Washington only played games at home, and lost to Stanford at home. I love it when the pundits pick the dogs preseason, but they didn't reach the Pac-12 title game because they didn't play an away game, and didn't play our beloved Ducks. 

I am just glad they may have a Huard lining up at center again. Every time he throws the ball it and I hear, 'Huard steps back to throw the ball,' great memories will poor over me.

[1Funduck]

21 minutes ago, ChicoDuck said:

 

Washington: 35,  17, 16, 16

Arizona State: 53, 23, 28, 36

Now look at Oregon and USC...

Oregon: 6, 11, 7, 13

USC: 8, 64, 20, 4

USC had a couple of down years, but they still have a decided talent advantage over ASU. 

And the "Match Up" between Oregon and Washington? It's not even close, and the gulf in talent is widening.

Talent matters.

 

Average over the last 4 years?

UW     21

ASU   35

USC   24

UO       9.25

To be fair USC only brought in a few players and thats totally uncharacteristic of USC. Take out that outlier and your average is closer 10-12. Basically the same as Oregon. Make no mistake, the recruits from USC and Oregon are on par with each other. The other schools are average to good hauls. It just takes a bit of scheming and developing to bring those Kids up to D-1 par. Coaching matters when you are the middle of the PAC if you want to win the PAC.

[30Duck]

12 minutes ago, Haywarduck said:

I am just glad they may have a Huard lining up at center again. Every time he throws the ball it and I hear, 'Huard steps back to throw the ball,' great memories will poor over me.

Absolutely, their top recruit was a legacy, two other highly ranked in-state players went elsewhere, JTT will. But yes, the Dogs have their Huard, and will have to play road games in 2021. Bow Wow. 

[UtahDuck]

On 2/13/2021 at 9:49 AM, 1Funduck said:

 

Average over the last 4 years?

UW     21

ASU   35

USC   24

UO       9.25

I think a better approach to take vs class rank is average recruit rank. In the last four classes USC leads the way followed by oregon then Washington. out of the four ASU is in fourth and a distant fourth at that.

USC .9076

UO .9057

UW .8933

ASU .8695

Now a few key points, technically all three(USC,OU and UW) are averaging a 4* class, USC is averaging a top 250 player, OU - 270 player and UW a top 350. Another key point is UW surged in recruiting classes in 18 and 19 and have dropped off to what they were doing before(classes with averages around .87) If lake doesn't pick up recruiting he won't have a Huard to 'Save' his class next year. 

Meanwhile Oregon has been on a steady increase over the four classes with this last class being the pinnacle so far. I'll also note Oregon had the highest number of signee's in these 4 years which inevitably helps as many players transfer out. 

Last point is USC's best class by far(18-21 classes) was in 18(Average .9423). The top 4 players have either declared fro the draft or transfered(JT Daniels, Gaoteote) and another 2 in the top 10 have left(Declared Talanoa Hufanga, Transferred to OU Devon Williams). If you could calculate that into the averages USC would probably be a hair below Oregon.