Does Georgia Need Oregon?

[Mic]

Tomorrow the CFP standings come out.  Rankings now have Georgia (1), Ohio State and Tennessee (tied for 2), Michigan (4), Clemson (5) 1-loss Alabama (6) and unbeaten TCU (7) 1-loss Oregon (8). OK.

 

Now, what happens to Georgia IF Tennessee upsets (?) them next Saturday?  And what then happens after the Michigan/Ohio St game when one has to lose?  And what happens to Clemson if they stumble against ND?

 

In other words, what if Georgia ends the season with one loss, identical to Alabama, a 1-loss Michigan or Ohio State and/or Clemson and an unbeaten TCU?  Does Georgia need Oregon to finish 12-1 with a Conference crown to make the final 4 in the CFB Playoffs?  (And then, what about Oregon?)

 

If I'm a Bulldog fan I'm rooting my little heart out for Oregon to roar to the finish line so that my 49-3 'ace-up-my-sleeve' brings me over the finish line - just in case Tennessee spoils the party next Saturday.

[HappyToBeADuck]

IMHO, Oregon needs Georgia more than Georgia needs Oregon. 

 

It would be very difficult for the CFP committee to ever place a one loss Oregon over a one loss defending National Champion. Especially after a 7 touchdown beatdown, head to head, on the field.

 

The best result for Oregon is for Georgia to win out and then hand Bama or Ole Miss its 2nd loss of the season. Then a Clemson and TCU loss along the way to open up a spot or 2 for a Duck invite.

 

However, lets not get too far ahead of the next game.....

 

GO DUCKS! Beat Colorado....

[noDucknewby]

In short, no.

 

The defending national champs from the SEC will get a pass for pretty much any one loss with or without an SEC championship.  Remember Alabama not even winning their division and still going to the CFP as a 1-loss team?

 

For Georgia, undefeated they're in, one loss they're in, two losses they're out.  Whatever Oregon does from here on out is irrelevant.

[Tandaian]

Way too much football to play.  No power 5 12-1 conference champion has missed the CFP, except tOSU in 2018.  See what I did there with the Big 12 in 2014?  Neither team was 12-1, TCU and Baylor were both 11-1.

 

tOSU lost to 6-6 @ Purdue 49-20 and missed out to Oklahoma who lost to 9-3 Texas @ Texas 45-48.  Then came back and beat them 39-27 in the Big 12 championship game.

 

CFP says they will hold up conference championships, so if that is to remain true, Michigan/tOSU winner, Tennesse/UGA winner, Clemson and TCU are all in the CFP.  Once, there are not 4 undefeated P5 champions, then it starts to get murky.

[David Marsh]

On 10/31/2022 at 10:26 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

IMHO, Oregon needs Georgia more than Georgia needs Oregon. 

I would agree with this... I am hoping that the CFP Comittee has more forgiveness in them than the national media that can't seem to forget that the embarrassing Georgia loss came from a team with a first year head coach in his first game with a brand new staff against a Georgia program that had some coaching turnover but nothing compared to what Oregon underwent. 

[Mic]

On 10/31/2022 at 10:26 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

IMHO, Oregon needs Georgia more than Georgia needs Oregon. 

GO DUCKS! Beat Colorado....

I think you misunderstand what I did a bad job of asking.  I think Georgia (IF they lose to Tennessee) will absolutely need Oregon to win out to give them a nod over other 1-loss teams like Michigan (if they lose to Ohio St) and Ohio State (if they lose to Michigan) and an unbeaten TCU & Clemson.

 

How do you keep two unbeaten teams like Clemson & TCU (assuming they go unbeaten) out of the CFP and how do you give Georgia the nod over either Ohio State or Michigan (assuming those teams finish with 1 loss)?  The SEC Champion will go and if it's Alabama in a rematch then Georgia would have to have a reason to  get the nod for one of the remaining 3 spots over a 1-loss Ohio St or Michigan (one will beat the other) and two possibly unbeaten teams in TCU & Clemson.

 

It's still confusing because I can't expostulate it clearly.  But I think the Bulldogs may need Oregon at least as much as Oregon needs them.  Oh ... the quirks of collegiate football, esp with this silly 4-team playoff system.

[noDucknewby]

Oh yeah it's a ridiculous system alright.

 

Imagine this scenario:

 

   1.  Tennessee beats Georgia next weekend and wins the SEC East.  Georgia then runs the table and finishes 11-1.

   2.  A 1-loss Alabama beats Tennessee in the SEC Championship game.

   3.  Either tOSU or Michigan goes undefeated as conference champ.  The other finishes 11-1.

   4.  Oregon or USC runs the table so we have a 1-loss Pac-12 champ.

   5.  Clemson goes undefeated winning the ACC.

   6.  TCU goes undefeated and wins the Big-12.

 

OK that's a lot of ifs, and pretty unlikely to happen but  in this scenario you would have to seed the 3 unbeaten conference teams and the SEC champs Alabama.  That leaves Tennessee out even though they went 1-1 with Alabama and beat Georgia.  

 

Defending national champ Georgia at 11-1 is out.

 

The 1-loss Pac-12 champ is out.

 

A 1-loss Big-10 runner up is out.

 

What a mess.  The expanded playoff can't happen soon enough.

 

[Mic]

On 10/31/2022 at 2:01 PM, noDucknewby said:

What a mess.  The expanded playoff can't happen soon enough.

All those things could (and are even likely) to happen.  

 

I actually think the 4-team Playoff did little, if anything, to solve the National Championship dilemma but only underscored the absurdity of it.  What it's going to take to get things changed is for a few of these SEC & ACC "powerhouses" to get left out for a couple teams they feel are inferior to themselves. And they tend to feel everyone is inferior to them.

[GangGreen2]

On 10/31/2022 at 2:01 PM, noDucknewby said:

Oh yeah it's a ridiculous system alright.

 

Imagine this scenario:

 

   1.  Tennessee beats Georgia next weekend and wins the SEC East.  Georgia then runs the table and finishes 11-1.

   2.  A 1-loss Alabama beats Tennessee in the SEC Championship game.

   3.  Either tOSU or Michigan goes undefeated as conference champ.  The other finishes 11-1.

   4.  Oregon or USC runs the table so we have a 1-loss Pac-12 champ.

   5.  Clemson goes undefeated winning the ACC.

   6.  TCU goes undefeated and wins the Big-12.

 

OK that's a lot of ifs, and pretty unlikely to happen but  in this scenario you would have to seed the 3 unbeaten conference teams and the SEC champs Alabama.  That leaves Tennessee out even though they went 1-1 with Alabama and beat Georgia.  

 

Defending national champ Georgia at 11-1 is out.

 

The 1-loss Pac-12 champ is out.

 

A 1-loss Big-10 runner up is out.

 

What a mess.  The expanded playoff can't happen soon enough.

 

Ugh!  That scenario would absolutely suck.  It would be horrible for the Pac 12 (and there would be a huge outcry from Tennessee, Georgia, and many BIG 10 fans).  You're right . . . it is past time for an expanded playoff format.

[Mic]

Adding to the CHAOS:

 

Six teams that could cause CFP chaos

WWW.YARDBARKER.COM

---

LSU, North Carolina, Kansas State and North Carolina walk into the College Football Playoff... No, that isn't the start of a joke.

Right now, a 12-team Playoff is beginning to look like it's the only possibility going forward if the NCAA wants to keep the egg from running off it's own face.

[Charles Fischer]

Ducks only have a 13% chance of winning the rest of our schedule and the Pac-12 Championship?  (Article above) I would like to think our odds are higher than that!

 

[Dufur]

My contribution here may do little to further this discussion, but here are my three comments:

 

1. Huskies 11/12

2. Utes 11/19

3. Beavs 11/26

 

Just a little reality check. Huskies know how to pass the ball. Utes have had our number. Beavers are always up for OBD. Take care of biz!

[noDucknewby]

Three tough games to finish the regular season, two at home, all winnable and all losable.  Then maybe the conference championship game against USC or UCLA.  Plenty of season still left, it's crunch time.

 

We have no margin for error to reach the playoff and even if we win out we would still probably need a little help.  It's looking like there may be several 1-loss teams when the dust settles.

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/1/2022 at 2:37 PM, Dufur said:

My contribution here may do little to further this discussion, but here are my three comments:

 

1. Huskies 11/12

2. Utes 11/19

3. Beavs 11/26

 

Just a little reality check. Huskies know how to pass the ball. Utes have had our number. Beavers are always up for OBD. Take care of biz!

Dufur!  You go way back to commenting under FishDuck articles...WELCOME!

[Mic]

On 11/1/2022 at 1:21 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Ducks only have a 13% chance of winning the rest of our schedule and the Pac-12 Championship?  (Article above) I would like to think our odds are higher than that!

I have NO idea how the writer came up with that one!  -31 over Colorado, they're home against UW & Utah in a place they seldom lose and on the road against the Beavers.  I'd say their chances are 50-50 at the least, including the Championship game - if they make it there.  Sounds more like wishful thinking to me than thoughtful analysis.

[Nevada Dawg]

On 11/1/2022 at 1:21 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Ducks only have a 13% chance of winning the rest of our schedule and the Pac-12 Championship?  (Article above) I would like to think our odds are higher than that!

 

Yeah the mathematical laws of  cumulative probabilities make almost any outcome seem highly improbable when aggregated over 4 or 5 events/games still to come.

[Mic]

So let's turn this around just a bit:

 

Saturday College Game Day broadcasts from Athens, Ga. for the Tennessee - Georgia game. 1 vs. 3.  Who helps Oregon the most by winning?  Probably Georgia, right?  Who do we root for; Georgia, right?  Who do you think will win?