Oregon Taking Portal Transfers is VERY Risky Business

[FishDuck Article]

As I start to dig into some of the fine-points of the transfer portal–I realize I’ve been looking at it primarily from the angle of the player, and not the program. Portal transfers can change a team remarkably, and thus my betting takes me to sites that focus on the sport, such as Nostrabet and that brings me back to ...

 

Oregon Taking Portal Transfers is VERY Risky Business

FISHDUCK.COM

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As I start to dig into some of the fine-points of the transfer portal–I realize I've been looking at it primarily from the angle of the player...

[Haywarduck]

I would think the qb position would create the opposite argument.

 

Both of our back-ups have done nothing for 2-3 years. Our transfer came in, started, and likely will leave after a productive year.

 

Has giving a full scholarship to a 5* and 4* done anything for the program. The 4* took up massive training time 3 years of scholarship and now has transferred.

 

The 5* has been on scholarship for 2 years may hang on for another, with little to show for his time here. He may go on to another program after all our training.

 

The college game is different from the high school game, and there is no position which shows the risks of committing to a high school kid like the qb position. I would think being able to evaluate a year or two of college ball can be incredibly helpful when committing to the time, and effort it takes to develop, and know if a kid has the college game.

 

I do agree coaches should be careful, but if you can see that a player has hit his peak in high school while on another team, why wouldn't you. Stay away from the time and money needed to get a player ready.

 

Use the transfer portal like triple A in baseball. Call up the players who have proven they can play at the lower levels. You don't bring in high school kids, sit them on the bench and then hope they can play. Make players earn their playing time at other schools. Just like in baseball, there are plenty of kids who look amazing in high school. Once they hit triple A it is evident who was faking it, or couldn't hit the curve.

 

It is going to take a lot of effort to figure who can help a program. The transfer portal just gives you even more data to evaluate.

 

 

[HappyToBeADuck]

After completion of the 2021 football season, the Ducks, trojans and huskies were a combined 18-20.

 

LR and the trojans brought the most portal players in, overhauled the roster with future NFL players and turned the program around. The Ducks and huskies brought in less players via the portal than the trojans. Both schools filled immediate needs with those portal players and had good seasons. Currently the 3 PAC schools are a combined 30-7. 

 

All 3 schools landed top, elite QB's. Heisman talk, on a national level, swirled around the PAC. How often will that happen? How often will lightning in a bottle strike? Oregon is not 9-3 without Bo, Gonzo and others.

 

Beavus, Utah and the bruins were dominated by long term players. Players developed in a system by great coaches. I am certain that those 3 schools utilized the portal where needed. Those 3 schools represent the tradition of building a long term program.

 

On the other side of the coin, TA&M (ATM Cash Machine University) poured untold millions into high school recruits. What a flop that was.......

 

Charles, i agree that heavy use of the portal is risky. Due diligence and caution should be applied. But that route is no more risky than the high school recruiting trail. 

 

As a coach you sre rolling the dice either way. Do i want potential high level yet unproven talent that can maybe be developed? Or...... Players with developed potential, game film and their man bodies already developed? Players with skills to fill in needs? Win now or 3 years from now......

 

Every school risks losing developed talent via the portal. Even Bama.

 

Well, I guess I want both routes, coupled with great coaching. Based upon the players currently on the roster, without the portal we will not be able to replace Gonzo or Bo. Nor does there appear to be a top 5 edge rusher on the current roster.

 

Those are positions of immediate need that need filling by experienced players. Thank goodness for the portal and the opportunities presented.

 

As a Duck fan i want a PAC title and a CFP appearance in 2023. 2024 and beyond mean nothing to me. In 2023, we have Beavus, wazzou and uscsuck in are backyard and the utes and huskies on the road. Darn it, i would like to win those games... Bring in the best players who can get that done, no matter the route.

 

[EastBayDuckDad]

Charles gives us a very interesting perspective on the portal. There is little argument that U$C would have improved and been less of a dumpster fire just with Riley at the helm. But you add Williams and Addison and you have a team that came close to the CFP and may still (hoping not) have a Heisman winner.

 

I hold that you don't need near 100% success on transfers to make it worthwhile. 75% will do. I think most would consider Bo, Bucky, Noah, Cota, Gonzo and maybe Rogers home runs/extra base hits. Riley and Taki singles. Chapman, Bales and Boyle strike outs. Some of that underperformance is due to injury.

 

If you anticipate that half of the HS recruits you give a scholarship to never pan out, then the downside of taking a kid in the portal (takes a scholly, doesn't see the field, bad influence, you're stuck with him) is offset by the right fit and proven performance at another program.

 

Oregon would not have had the good season it had without the home run transfers. The main disappointments were players Oregon (Cristobal) recruited, primarily on defense. Maybe it was scheme, injuries, coachability or whatever, but without Gonzo the DBs would have been a greater weakness than they were. 

 

I think Lanning and the asst. coaches on very short notice did a remarkable job cobbling together a group of quality transfers in 2022. Most of the home runs were players known to the staff and were thought to be good fits. They were proven right for the most part. I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt going forward.

 

 

[Mudslide]

Good ponder points, Charles.  Thank you.  I would add a thought that could reduce the risk to a team.  The risk that you pose in portal players is that a school must honor the scholarship as long as the player stays...injured, under-performing, or for whatever reason for as long as the (non)player stays. 
 

An easy way to place the risk-reward factor in the school's favor is to take players with ONLY one year of eligibility remaining.  I realize that such a strategy would limit a school's field of potential transfers, but targeting some such players would reduce the overall risk of damaging that 85 scholarship limit.

 

[jrw]

The length-of-scholarship rule is significant. We are in the wild west days of the portal; it will probably take a few years until it becomes clear how it really works for both players and programs. Just a guess, but it probably will calm down as both sides start to see the downsides.

[Just Ducky]

 Lots of good points here. I feel sorry for the coaches having to broaden their focus on two different elements like never before. Although I think less research is required on portal players because the track record is already there for the upper class kids.

 

 I was expecting this to smooth out a little when the Covid players are gone and also the first time transfer numbers trend downward because of the second time rule.

 

 The coaches that get it correct the first time will be the most successful in my mind.

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/10/2022 at 7:13 AM, Haywarduck said:

I would think the qb position would create the opposite argument

I did not say that we do NOT take ANY portal transfers, but plug some holes where recruiting has not worked out.  (I believe that was in the article?)

 

On 12/10/2022 at 7:13 AM, Haywarduck said:

he transfer portal just gives you even more data to evaluate.

The majority of the Oregon players transferring out played very little, hence very little data on them.  Even worse is a very small window of time to get acquainted with players who are putting their best foot forward and behaving for a while as schools court them.  The "Bad-Attitude" players are going to be harder to sift out.

 

Meanwhile you have had reams of conversations with HS players over a couple of years.  IMHO, there is much more data going that direction.

 

Keep in mind that we had TONS of data on Bo Nix coming here, but there were still quite a few doubts and concerns about him--even after the Spring Game.

 

Bo Nix's Picks: Can You Live With Them?

FISHDUCK.COM

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Right now Oregon fans are almost swooning in a classic "honeymoon" phase with new head coach Dan Lanning before any games are played. To a degree...

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/10/2022 at 8:02 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

But that route is no more risky than the high school recruiting trail. 

Then we will disagree--no sweat.

 

The difference is the nature of the scholarship as I wrote at the beginning of the article.  A HS scholarship is not tied up, and can be quickly recycled if things don't work out.  Not so with a portal scholarship.... as you are stuck with the player regardless of results.

 

That, to me, is a lot more risk.

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/10/2022 at 8:07 AM, EastBayDuckDad said:

Oregon would not have had the good season it had without the home run transfers. The main disappointments were players Oregon (Cristobal) recruited, primarily on defense. Maybe it was scheme, injuries, coachability or whatever, but without Gonzo the DBs would have been a greater weakness than they were. 

No disagreement...as I wrote in the article.  I would like a few portal transfers this year to plug some holes, but they gotta work out.  Otherwise we are screwed; we have not solved the problem and we have tied up a scholarship.

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/10/2022 at 8:07 AM, EastBayDuckDad said:

I think Lanning and the asst. coaches on very short notice did a remarkable job cobbling together a group of quality transfers in 2022. Most of the home runs were players known to the staff and were thought to be good fits. They were proven right for the most part. I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt going forward.

Me too.  I thought they did superb last year with the portal, in fact I wrote how they WON the portal game in previous articles.  One former OBD member gnashed his teeth several times a day at how the portal was another nail in the coffin of college football, and how Oregon would be hurt by it.  Nope...we won the portal battle in 2022.

 

I never stated I did not have confidence in the staff, but simply stating what I believe is the obvious; a scholarship that is tied up via a portal transfer is inherently more risky than a HS scholarship.

[Haywarduck]

I don't disagree with the risk you highlight, but I think there are two kinds of transfers. You have the disgruntled player and the player who wants the better stage to show his skills. It isn't easy to shift out who is in each category, but a Gonzo was, pretty much, a no brainer. 

 

I think we have to compete hard in the Gonzo category, and be careful about the Nix category. I will say I think we should bring in a senior type, experienced qb transfer until we have somebody step on the field and show they are ready to lead. The qb position is just too critical.

 

Wasting a scholarship because Moore is ready day one is a risk I would take. That transfer would probably take off the next season anyway, and we would have a reliable back-up for the season.

 

You make a great point about the risks I think few of us considered, thanks.

[EastBayDuckDad]

In the business world when you consider hiring someone from another company, you want to dig under the visible performance and learn something about character and work ethic. As long as everything is out in the open, a simple phone call can help read between the lines of a resume'.

 

I wonder how often coaches communicate with each other on potential transfers in the portal. I have to believe some similar form of due diligence goes on.

 

If you have direct input on those important intangibles, like Dilly did on Bo, Locklyn on Noah and Coach Meat on Gonzo, you can make an intelligent call. Cota was a known entity at Oregon, but did DL maybe contact CK for more detail? Do coaches ever give a private negative review that could make a team fishing the portal have second thoughts on signing that former 4-5☆?

 

Perhaps in-conference rivals would be tight lipped about negative issues (Let so-and-so player become his headache). Then again, maybe problem players are more common knowledge than we think and even if it's 'good riddance', a coach would rather not have to face the fallout in their own conference.

 

I'd like to believe coaches prioritize the well being of the student athlete as much as possible (he's a great kid that didn't really fit or develop in our system, but he might in yours) and want them to land in a good spot.

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/10/2022 at 10:03 AM, EastBayDuckDad said:

In the business world when you consider hiring someone from another company, you want to dig under the visible performance and learn something about character and work ethic.

Usually with the business world...we are dealing with older adults.  Not so here, and especially in this new culture?

 

On 12/10/2022 at 10:03 AM, EastBayDuckDad said:

Do coaches ever give a private negative review that could make a team fishing the portal have second thoughts on signing that former 4-5☆?

In the business world today, if you give a negative referral for someone--they can turn and sue you.  I have to imagine those same risks exist for football programs, and then there are privacy laws...

 

Not trying to argue, but bring up other points.  I thought the same--just call the other coach...but can he really tell you anything?  Will he?

 

In my view, it adds to the risk factors of portal transfers.

[GeotechDuck]

Whoa!  This is a huge factor.  I had no idea.  You can’t afford to miss much. 
 

“Once you sign a portal transfer–you must honor his scholarship for his entire duration at your university, whether he contributes or not.”