Forecast: Herbert a Pro-Bowler; Tua the Next Mariota

[FishDuck Article]

Piggybacking off of my previous post about Mario Cristobal costing Justin Herbert being the No. 1 draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, I wanted to explore what’s to come for Herbert and his draft day “rival” Tua Tagovailoa. But first, I must come clean. I must admit my “sin” of wishing a fellow human being to not succeed. While ...

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[BigDucksFan]

As you point out in your article, QB's from top college teams go higher in the NFL Draft then those from lesser college teams, but that doesn't mean they are actually better QB's. Time will tell about Tua Tagovailoa but I'm glad Justin plays for the Chargers. 

[Darren Perkins]

6 hours ago, BigDucksFan said:

As you point out in your article, QB's from top college teams go higher in the NFL Draft then those from lesser college teams, but that doesn't mean they are actually better QB's. Time will tell about Tua Tagovailoa but I'm glad Justin plays for the Chargers. 

Thanks. It still blows me away how he stepped in with so very little learning curve. 

[Charles Fischer]

Great article, great insights and gives us much to ponder and watch for in the coming seasons Darren.  It is no surprise, but the NFL has shut down the video you inserted...

[Darren Perkins]

2 minutes ago, Charles Fischer said:

Great article, great insights and gives us much to ponder and watch for in the coming seasons Darren.  It is no surprise, but the NFL has shut down the video you inserted...

 

Ha! The No Fun League at it again. At least, from what I can see, the image is still there.....

[Drake]

I think Herbert’s interviews make him even more lovable as a fan. This guy just had the best NFL rookie QB season that we have ever seen, and he steers all the questions about his success towards his surrounding teammates abilities. 

I think Herbert’s struggles to win games as a freshman while at Oregon, and his teams subsequent success afterward, better prepare him mentally for the tough losses in the NFL. My guess is that Herbert’s success in the NFL has a much higher ceiling than Tua, and many other young QBs. 
 

If you look at rookie highlights, Herbert’s last for over 30 minutes...Tua, maybe 3 minutes...lol

Edited February 19, 2021 by Drake

[Mudslide]

I'm still trying to process how MC could develop JH as you said... "Herbert came into the league as a ready-made NFL quarterback"  while also "costing Justin Herbert being the No. 1 draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft".  I'd say that mistake should should be laid at the feet of the NFL scouts and coaches, and not MC.  Or maybe I misread the articles?

[Darren Perkins]

7 minutes ago, Drake said:

I think Herbert’s interviews make him even more lovable as a fan. This guy just had the best NFL rookie QB season that we have ever seen, and he steers all the questions about his success towards his surrounding teammates abilities. 

I think Herbert’s struggles to win games as a freshman while at Oregon, and his teams subsequent success afterward, better prepare him mentally for the tough losses in the NFL. My guess is that Herbert’s success in the NFL has a much higher ceiling than Tua, and many other young QBs. 

Yeah, he's not a natural in interviews so he sticks to safe answers, which at this stage in his career is smart. I'm sure he'll open up and show more personality as he gets older..... and very true, there are good lessons to be taught in losing games. 

[Darren Perkins]

9 minutes ago, Mudslide said:

I'm still trying to process how MC could develop JH as you said... "Herbert came into the league as a ready-made NFL quarterback"  while also "costing Justin Herbert being the No. 1 draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft".  I'd say that mistake should should be laid at the feet of the NFL scouts and coaches, and not MC.  Or maybe I misread the articles?

No doubt about it, MC did NOT make Herbert ready-made, he was ready-made in spite of the offensive coaching at Oregon that did not unleash his full potential, which in my opinion, is what cost him the No. 1 pick.....

And I don't know, I think the media and scouts were biased towards Tua because he was the media darling and was the golden boy at Alabama, while Herbert was perceived as quiet (like Mariota) and there was a sense of "here we go again, with another soft-spoken Oregon quarterback." In fact, I recall one pundit saying just that. 

[Ed O]

6 minutes ago, Darren Perkins said:

No doubt about it, MC did NOT make Herbert ready-made, he was ready-made in spite of the offensive coaching at Oregon that did not unleash his full potential, which in my opinion, is what cost him the No. 1 pick.....

So how does that happen? A guy is ready for the NFL in spite of the lack of coaching in college?

It makes no sense to me, especially at a position like QB.

It's possible that the work the coaches did prepared him and held him back from the number one pick (since his production wasn't as good as it might have been), but (as stated above) that's a failure of scouting and the NFL, not his coaches.

[Darren Perkins]

18 minutes ago, Ed O said:

So how does that happen? A guy is ready for the NFL in spite of the lack of coaching in college?

It makes no sense to me, especially at a position like QB.

It's possible that the work the coaches did prepared him and held him back from the number one pick (since his production wasn't as good as it might have been), but (as stated above) that's a failure of scouting and the NFL, not his coaches.

I see your point and that makes sense,  yes,  he received coaching and developed as a player with the Ducks. But, God-given ability can take a person far, and Herbert has plenty. As well as a work ethic, intelligence, and drive to get better  (He also stepped in as skinny true freshman and played at a much more mature level, with little college coaching to that point) So, when but when you look at the inconsistent and underperforming offense  it just seems to me that, yes, his success has been in spite of the offense scheming and coaching with the Ducks. 

[Haywarduck]

I think the Herbert, Tua question is, does it makes sense to draft a college qb, who has NFL receivers, higher than a qb with little support? Tua, Burrow and Johnny Football all had guys who would catch anything and get open against anyone. This seems to be missed by the scouts every time.

This also can answer the question about how important it is to recruit elite talent at WR. A qb can be made with top talent at TE and WR. A qb can also look questionable without support. 

We still don't have an unquestionable elite receiver on our active roster. Who is going to develop into one, or who is the freshman phenom? We need elite talent to help our new qb. Maybe JTT can be the go to guy for our next qb? The whole Brady to Gronk thing, in my opinion, is underrated. Every qb needs a go to receiver to help them, and make everyone else look better.

In the NFL it always seems like the elite qb has an amazing TE. This position, in my opinion, is underrated in the college game. Most college teams, Oregon a perfect example, look at the TE as a blocking guy, who might catch a few. We need a guy who is a threat and that will change our O for the better.

Great topic to ponder, thanks!

[Mudslide]

2 hours ago, Darren Perkins said:

No doubt about it, MC did NOT make Herbert ready-made, he was ready-made in spite of the offensive coaching at Oregon that did not unleash his full potential, which in my opinion, is what cost him the No. 1 pick.....

As we all well know, football is a team sport.  MC would never change an offense for the benefit of a single player's stats or proof of performance.  The idea is to win games, not get #1 draft picks.  Also keep in mind that JH's receivers were nothing like what the Chargers have.

[Southern Duck]

If you gave Justin Bama talented WR's at Oregon, he wins the Heisman!   I'd also add Justin's arm strength is Elway live and that plus great size and a good brain has made the NFL take notice in a hurry. The bonus is Justin actually has some DUDES that can catch his natural speed now.  I wonder how much zip he had to take off his ball at Oregon to make catchable balls for lesser WR's?  

What I think is VERY impressive, Justin accomplished all of this with one of the worst statistical O line's in the NFL.   Just imagine what he'll be able to do with a Penei Sewell helping him again or a talent of similar production? 

If the Chargers O line can keep Justin clean, he'll  destroy NFL  secondary's with that cannon. 

[Darren Perkins]

6 hours ago, Haywarduck said:

I think the Herbert, Tua question is, does it makes sense to draft a college qb, who has NFL receivers, higher than a qb with little support? Tua, Burrow and Johnny Football all had guys who would catch anything and get open against anyone. This seems to be missed by the scouts every time.

Yeah it would be nice to see the Ducks expand the tight end role. But with the O-line being Mario's pet position, he's more inclined to have tight ends focus on his favorite thing, blocking!

[Darren Perkins]

6 hours ago, Mudslide said:

As we all well know, football is a team sport.  MC would never change an offense for the benefit of a single player's stats or proof of performance.  The idea is to win games, not get #1 draft picks.  Also keep in mind that JH's receivers were nothing like what the Chargers have.

Agreed. Of course he wouldn't to benefit a single player's stats or try to produce a #1 pick, but he should have changed the offense to score more points and win more games. Scheming in a way that would have maximized Herbert's talent would have done this and the by product would have been greater stats for Herbert and a better shot at the top pick. 

[Darren Perkins]

6 hours ago, Southern Duck said:

If you gave Justin Bama talented WR's at Oregon, he wins the Heisman!   I'd also add Justin's arm strength is Elway live and that plus great size and a good brain has made the NFL take notice in a hurry. The bonus is Justin actually has some DUDES that can catch his natural speed now.  I wonder how much zip he had to take off his ball at Oregon to make catchable balls for lesser WR's?  

What I think is VERY impressive, Justin accomplished all of this with one of the worst statistical O line's in the NFL.   Just imagine what he'll be able to do with a Penei Sewell helping him again or a talent of similar production? 

If the Chargers O line can keep Justin clean, he'll  destroy NFL  secondary's with that cannon. 

Agree, the WR talent was lacking but I maintain that was only part of the story. The play calling and scheming was lacking. .... The highlight reel fastball he threw to Keenan Allen was amazing! Thanks

[FishIceCream]

I say there is NO PROBLEM with you being biased towards Herbert, considering that this is the FishDuck forum haha. More power to you.

How I see it is like this. Herbert is the prototypical "NFL quarterback" - 6'6" so tall enough to see over the line, 240 so big enough to withstand some hits. As we saw in his first series when he put some poor LB on the bench after a hard hit.

Tua is a dynamic playmaker in the mold of Russell Wilson. Wilson - 5'11", 215; Tua 6'0" 217.

Everyone would love to have another Russell Wilson, but there is a reason why he is exceptional. Not only are you playing at the very top level as a quarterback, but you are also giving up 4-6 inches of height in the game. It makes a difference! Those linemen are some tall dudes.

I think Mariota has struggled due to injury and circumstance, but he does have the size and athleticism to make it work. Tua I am not so sure about. He has the "it factor" but not the size. Maybe athleticism? Not sure.