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Everything posted by David Marsh
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Can the Ducks Peak? How Many Losses for Oregon in the SEC?
Kinda... the reality is that there are a whole lot of teams that don't stand a chance at the National Championship. Would ensuring four or five Big 12 teams in the playoff increase their chance of winning the National Championship? Not really, they'd all probably lose to superior teams. The SEC probably only has two maybe three true contenders for the National Championship. But no one in the SEC looks especially dominant and adding more to the mix just seems like giving opporunties to teams that will be competitive to the other mediocre teams in the playoff but not be true contenders. I'd say the B1G has two in Oregon and Ohio State, outside of those two I don't see Penn State getting it done.
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Public Apology to JabbaNoBargain (From Original Post of CFB Playoff Committee to HOSE Oregon?)
It certainly needs to be changed. I'm ok with automatic bids for conference champions, even though the reality of it is that a conference champion worthy of an invite should probably be default be in the top 12 teams. Though access is important for this format so auto bids are important to give the illusion that any team that makes the playoff could win it all. But lets just assume conference champs get auto bids. The real baffling thing with this format is why do conference champs get an automatic bye? They should get a bid and then with all bids they should be given a rank and those ranks should be slotted in. That's probably where the playoff is headed.
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WSU's Dickert Speaks Reality vs OSU
Seriously... They really should have bought their way into the Big 12 with their pillaged cash. Pay a good sized entry fee and as a part of that package don't take a media cut for x-years and ride their I'll gotten gains. Their scrap 12 rebuild is horrible and embarrassing and puts them behind in the long run.
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Public Apology to JabbaNoBargain (From Original Post of CFB Playoff Committee to HOSE Oregon?)
If Ohio State loses to us again they may drop to number 3 overall. Sure, they say they won't punish a conference championship loser but they will... It just won't be an elimination game for the B1G or SEC loser. The Big 12 and ACC loser is highly unlikely to make the playoffs at all. But they might drop the B1G loser slightly more and put them at 4 or 5 overall which might sort out the problem. Highly unlikely though. Unless... We blow out Ohio State which might do it. But look at it this way... If Oregon beats Ohio State three times in one season that puts the history of the series at 4-8 Ohio State. In almost one year we'd cut their lead in the series in half and probably outright break their fanbase at the same time.
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Colorado is Going to Win the Big 12
Well... Theoretically it is possible for an undefeated Army to get in over the Big 12 Champion. After all the guaranteed auto bids are for the 5 highest ranked conference champions. So if Army is a conference champion and higher ranked than the Big 12 Conference Champion then Army would get in and the Big 12 Champion may not. We've just assumed that only one G5 team would get in because historically speaking getting two G5 teams in the Top 25 is rather rare. So the top 5 conference champions getting an auto bid does not guarantee the P4 get in but it does assume they do get a bid. Is it likely that Army snubs the Big 12 Champ? No... is it possible? Yes. But using a very broad definition of possible.
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Colorado is Going to Win the Big 12
Notre Dame doesn't get in if Army beats them. Period. Army is probably on the outside looking in and another SEC team gets an invite.
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Colorado is Going to Win the Big 12
But they'll still have to play 2 games and that does expose them to more injuries and less rest time. I know many are thinking the 5 seed is easier and it might be on paper but exposing players to more hits and an extra game is also quite difficult. Also.... Boise State is slated to be the 12 spot but there is a chance they come in at number 11 or 10 and throw everything else off in current projections. Not saying it will happen, as I think it's unlikely but it is possible. Or... Complete chaos and Boise State gets the auto bye over Colorado!
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Justin Herbert is Turning Heads
It doesn't hurt that Herbert is genuinely a very nice guy.
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Colorado is Going to Win the Big 12
He's a good coach. I think if you buy I to his culture you'll do well but if you don't then it'll go poorly. I think that restricts his recruiting pool because many don't want to deal with his ego. We'll see how he does when he loses some of his all star players around him.
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So...Lanning's Wins Officially Passed Chip as HC at Oregon?
I could be completely off base... But Harmon was called for a hold in Wisconsin's first series of the second half that extended the drive. And in the ready Harmon was getting double teamed and just didn't get pushed back but it didn't look like a hold.
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Kirby is Smart and He Has a Point
The reality is that the 12 team playoff will include more teams but not more true contenders. Would Indiana win a game against Boise State, the Big 12 or an ACC champ? Probably... Would they beat one of the SEC mediocres? Good chance of it but maybe not. The format guarantees the Big 12, ACC, and G5 get one team in. That does mean that other teams that could just as deserving get left out. Should Indiana be punished for playing the schedule they're given? They might be if they get blown out by Ohio State.
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Kirby is Smart and He Has a Point
I agree. The way college football is set up there can't be a true system for this playoff. The B1G is top heavy with at least three teams certainly worthy of a spot in the playoff. Indiana gets to prove themselves against Ohio State and if they lose that one by 3 or less (or win it) I think it's difficult to leave them out. Not impossible but difficult. Penn State has been good but not great but probably playoff worthy. The SEC doesn't have he juggernaut team this year... They have a bunch of mediocre teams that are good-mediocre but I don't think they'll make deep playoff runs. Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss look like the three ready for the playoff... Depending on which version shows up. The ACC is awful and the only reason why Miami has one loss is because they're in the ACC. Right now I think SMU wins the ACC but we'll see. I doubt the ACC champ is much better if at all than the good-mediocres of the SEC. The Big 12 is entertaining but just as weak as the ACC. Colorado can win it and Colorado was demolished by Nebraska. I don't think Colorado could beat any of the teams coming from the Power 2. Then the G5... Well Boise is a good team and they could probably knock out the Big 12 and ACC Champs. How is anyone supposed to create a formula for any of this. Furthermore, the SEC only plays 8 conference games. A good chunk of this chaos would be resolved if they played 9 conference games because we'd see a lot of these 2 loss teams with 3. Here's the actual formula... How many losses? Have you beat any highly ranked teams? If you have losses who were they to and how bad? Do you have a strong national brand? Have you beaten any strong national brands? That's about it. This is why Indiana will drop out of the playoff if they lose by a touchdown or more against Ohio State and why Georgia just needs to win out to get in.
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Are NBC Games Cursed for Oregon?
So Oregon has been on NBC or an NBC service for three games..Boise State, Ohio State and nle Wisconsin. All three games have been determined by a field goal or less. Are games on NBC just bad news for our Ducks? I mean if you're super suspicious then maybe. I just think it's an interesting coincidence.
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Oregon vs Wisconsin Post Game Discussion Thread
Eight weeks without a bye is showing. But that defense is legit.
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Let's Discuss! CFB College Football GameDay (All Other Games Today)
Could we call the USC v Nebraska the has been bowl?
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Let's Discuss! CFB College Football GameDay (All Other Games Today)
I mean I guess we can watch the Beavers find a way to lose to Air Force...
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Let's Discuss! CFB College Football GameDay (All Other Games Today)
Anyone else finding today's slate of games to be a bit boring? Nothing major in terms of upsets at the moment.
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UCLA at Washington Discussion Thread
Is it just me or does that UCLA I formation for their run plays feel super far back for the runningback? It feels like there is a solid couple seconds before the handoff and more than enough time for the defense to break the offensive line.
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UCLA at Washington Discussion Thread
Huskies are letting the Bruins hang around. That's what UCLA wants and needs.
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Injury Report for Wisconsin Game
The Tez and Harper injuries are the only two I have concerns about. Both are long term injuries and I don't expect either to play soon. The loss of both hurts but I think our receivers pick it up a bit better this weekend having another week to settle into some expanded roles.
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Ewe Dub's Latest Promotion . . . They Better Win or the Turd Will be in Their Punch(less) Bowl.
I played world of Warcraft for quite a few years when I was younger. It was a fun game and certainly the game I've put the most hours in out of every other game I've ever played. But let me be honest.... This promotion is about 15 years too late. Sure WoW is still around and has an ardent following but it isn't the juggernaut of video games it was back around 2008ish. Microsoft (roughly Seattle based) just acquired Activision-Blizzard (so cal based) so so its probably Microsoft wanting to show off their new IP.
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Injury Report for Wisconsin Game
In the case of Bedford I am sure they want him to medical redshirt and to do that he needs to sit the rest of the season. He has already used his redshirt so he can't play at this point. Other players vary but for Kasper and Fields I think they have also both used a redshirt so they might be in line for a medical redshirt as well.
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Injury Report for Wisconsin Game
I wouldn't be surprised to see James and Burch play but with a snap count to ensure they aren't put too much at risk. If Harper plays it would probably only be in the first half and on a snap count. Last week's offensive line changes weren't horrible but it was a step down. However, I believe coaches would deem it good enough, especially with Iuli getting another week of reps with the 1s, to probably keep Harper on the bench the entire game if they can manage it. As for Tez... he won't play vs UW and I doubt he'll play against the other UW (can we start referring to the Huskies as the "other UW" just to insult them?) We'll need him for the CCG but probably not against either UW. Especially since Washington has a horrible rushing defense but a good passing defense so I suspect we'll want a healthy James for that game more than a healthy Tez.
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Finebaum Goes After CFP Committee and B1G Teams
But it gives us something to talk about... Indiana, like Texas, will get their shot at a highly ranked team. If they win they're in. If they lose close, they're probably in... if they lose badly then they're out. It will sort itself out soon enough.
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Finebaum Goes After CFP Committee and B1G Teams
The reality is that the SEC, like most conferences, mediocre in the middle. The SEC has had a dominant team or two for what feels like forever now that is a national championship contender yearly but this year Georgia isn't that team and Texas had their shot at a top team and lost and don't appear to be that team either. However, what really irks SEC honks like Finebaum is that the mediocre middle isn't getting the same respect as the traditional top of their conference. Guess what, the middle sections of conferences tend not to be very good. I would argue this year that the B1G's middle is downright weak, so Finebaum and I would probably agree on that front. But I don't think the SEC's middle is all that remarkable this year.