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Everything posted by Jon Joseph
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Whoa! A Recruiting Vacuum from the Departure of Saban and Harbaugh is Filled by Lanning?
Now rumored that former UW and Bama OC Ryan Grubb will be leaving Bama to be the Seahawks OC. This move would not surprise me. With the chaos in CFB today it was not surprising to see the BC head coach leave for the pros. Roster management in CFB today is coach crazy-making. And not everyone is like Dan, Kirby Smart, and other great recruiters who go at it 24/7 every day of the year.
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The B1G Portal and the 'New' SEC
Every NFL team has a Salary Cap expert. A person(s) who knows exactly how much room the team has in cap space. Don't need a collective as the team is the employer. I don't think multi-billionaire NFL owners need help coming up with the money. This is true even for publically owned Green Bay.
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Hapless Husky Recruiting Descends Further...
My bad. Punic and a Freudian slip on my part. 😒
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Expanded Playoffs Down to 11 Teams, or So Says Deion
Yet, in one season Sanders took a moribund CU to one of the most watched CFB teams. At Nebraska will be a B1G game to see if the Buffs team can beat the Cornhuskers back-to-back. CU plays Baylor, K State, Cincinnati, OK State, and Utah in Boulder. At Arizona will be an interesting game. Ditto at UCF. His kid is back at QB as is preseason AA Travis Hunter. The OL can't be worse. I think that in the B12 the Buffs could be a player for a conference title.
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Hapless Husky Recruiting Descends Further...
Friend, Duckley. Michigan has a rebuild on O, not so much on D. Michigan in 2024 will, perhaps barely, be a Blue Chip Roster Team. UW will not. Rebuilding Washington? See Carthage post-Rome Or, perhaps Chapter 1 of Genesis with 'days' turned into 'years?' 10/5/24 - the proof will be in the pudding when the Wolverines trip to Seattle. Early LIne? Give me 5! Michigan -5. O/U 55.5.
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Hapless Husky Recruiting Descends Further...
One thing for certain is that I refuse to recognize the JCC, John Canzano Conference (a/k/a The Pac-2) as being a Power Conference. To my knowledge, the only 2 'football guys' who recognize the JCC, P-4 or not, are the Oregon and UW athletic directors.
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ESPN+ Reranks The 2024 Transfer Classes Top 10
ESPN+ - Paywall - No. 2 - OREGON - The Ducks made the Biggest move going from a No. 9 ranking to being ranked 2nd and just above Ohio State. The battle of the O's is on! 1. Ole Miss - Strong additions on the D-side of the ball where the Rebels (52 points surrendered to UGA in 2023) needed the help. 3. Ohio State - Few additions but all are likely to have an immediate impact but for 5* QB Justin Sayin. 4. A+M - Unlike Jimbo, will new HC Mike Elko be able to coach up a talented Aggies roster. The opening game vs. Notre Dame will be interesting. 5. Florida State - A good haul but lots of losses from the 2023 undefeated team. OOC vs. Florida and Notre Dame in South Bend could be tough. Clemson trips to FSU. 6. Louisville - Tyler Shough is a nice pickup at QB but will he stay upright? 6 home games in 2024 instead of last season's 8 and Notre Dame will be looking for revenge in South Bend. 7. Colorado - Will moving to an easier conference help? Bringing in a lot of OL guys but will they work together and block? 8. NC State - Signing QB Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolins makes the Wolfpack a contender for the ACC title. Versus Stanford and Cal in Berkeley. Very strange. 9. Texas - Silas Bolden from the Beavers is one of the great WR transfer gets. 2023 PO No. 3 at PO No. 1 Michigan opening week, Heck Yes! 10. Missouri - SEC SOS is ranked the easiest; 16 out of 16. 8 home games. 4 OOC cupcakes, especially with the BC coach leaving for the pros. At Bama and A+M but no Ole Miss, no UGA, and OK in CoMo. HMMMMM? Go Ducks! Vandalize the Vandals!
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2024 CFB Playoff and Some Ducks Scheduling 'Quirks'
One question CFB fans are waiting to be answered come the final PO Committee ranking on December 8, 2024, is whether strength of schedule (SOS) will matter. Or, will PO rankings continue to be a simple matter of wins and losses regardless of the quality of the teams your team played? In his latest Athletic Mailbag, Stewart Mandel provided the following example using his preseason top-25 and noting that with conference's growing in size, schedules within the conferences will have a significant difference in difficulty. SP+ has ranked Florida's 2024 schedule the toughest in the land. Utah's schedule is not as yet ranked by SP+ but is outside of the top 15. Florida Scheule - No. 1 Georgia, No. 3 Texas, No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 14 FSU, No. 17 Tennessee, No. 20 LSU, No. 21 TX A+M, and No. 25 Miami. Eight games vs Stewart's top-25. Six games versus the top 20. (Oregon plays 2 such games, Michigan and Ohio State.) Utah Schedule - No. 10 Oklahoma State, No. 13 Arizona, and No. 24 Iowa State. Three games in Stewart's top 25, two games versus the top 20. Florida finishes 9-3. Utah plays for but does not win the B12 title and finishes 11-2. There's one PO opening left, Which team do you put into the PO assuming that the Committee's final ranking matches Stewart's preseason rankings (which, of course, it will not.) W/Ls only? Slam dunk for the Utes. But if the difficulty of your schedule matters, the Gators would have a heck of an argument. In 2024 and 2025, before the PO is likely restructured comes 2026, you can bet the B1G Commissioner Tony Petitti and SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey will be paying close attention to how the Committee answers the SOS question. ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... OBD - Behind the 8 Ball in 2024. It has already been noted that Oregon is the only Power 4 team in 2024 that will play eight games in a row vs. Power 4 opponents (all B1G teams) without an idle week. 9/21 - In addition to the time off, Oregon should benefit from its first Off Week falling on Week 4, the week before Oregon opens B1G play in LA vs. UCLA. Why? Because in Week 4 the Bruins will be battling the LSU Bayou Bengals in Baton Rogue. Tough trip before drawing the Ducks. In 29 days in 2024, Oregon will travel a total of 13,444 miles, including the return trips, to W. Lafayette, Indiana to play Purdue, Ann Arbor, Michigan to play Michigan, and Madison, Wisconsin, to play the Wisconsin Badgers. 10/19 - At Purdue - This game that has 'Trap' written all over it. Why? Because it's the game after Oregon plays Ohio State in Autzen. The week before this game find the Boilermakers playing the nearby Illinois Illini. OK, this is just the 'rub of the green.' 11/2 - At Michigan - Game No. 6 in the 8-game gauntlet finds Oregon coming off a home game vs. Illinois with Michigan playing Michigan State in Ann Arbor. Nothing amiss here, Michigan will be up to play Oregon after any game except perhaps, vs. Ohio State. 11/9 - Maryland - Game No. 7 in the 8-game gauntlet. Puddles gets to fly home which is nice. The rub? Maryland has the week off before playing an Oregon team that may find it difficult to focus on Maryland after playing Michigan in the B1G House in one of the biggest games of the season. 11/16 - At Wisconsin - Game No. 8 in the 8-game gauntlet finds Oregon turning around and heading back East for a game on what is likely to be a cold day in Madison vs. the Badgers. Fine, eh? This is what Oregon signed up for. However, like opponent Maryland, Wisconsin has the Week Off before playing the Ducks. Two opponents in a row napping the week before they play Oregon? One might think that Oregon is The New Kid on the Block trying to make it with the In Crowd. Right? Behind the 8-Ball 2? Oregon will play seven home games in 2024. Chief rivals for the B1G Prize, Michigan, and Ohio State, play eight home games. Thank you B1G Powers-That-Be for an Off Week the penultimate week of the regular season. Ditto for UW before the rivalry game. Bring It On!
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2024/25 12-Team College Football Playoff Musings
No one should be writing off Kirby and his Dawgs in 2024. Not only does Georgia have many great players back, UGA finished #1 in recruiting in 2024, and filled the very few holes it did have from the portal. Tough road games but Georgia put up 52 points on Ole Miss in 2023 and surrendered 17 points. Tailgating in The Grove in Oxford is going to change this? Saint Nick has left the building. Texas lost last season to OK and UW and a lot of quality players have gone pro. I'll take Carson Beck over Ewers. UGA will be preseason AP Poll ranked #1 and for good reason.
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Unforeseen Consequences: Will the Student-Athlete Become a “Worker”?
Some needed clarification on the AGs vs NCAA lawsuits. These folks want wide-open 'free agency' in CFB. And they have a point. If there is no union to bargain with than any restriction on a player's ability to transfer can be viewed as a restraint on trade. BRUTAL! NCAA sued over NIL rules after Tennessee football investigation - ESPN WWW.ESPN.COM The attorneys general of Tennessee and Virginia filed a lawsuit against the NCAA over NIL-related recruiting rules.
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Unforeseen Consequences: Will the Student-Athlete Become a “Worker”?
Mandel: NCAA takes on Tennessee, but it's likely a case of too little, too late THEATHLETIC.COM Much more so than the Florida State or Florida cases, this Tennessee case feels like a bigger-picture referendum on NIL collectives. What a Mess! And no one is around to clean IT up.
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Tasty Tidbits for Devoted Ducks...
Oregon adds quality QBs, Arizona keeps dynamic duo: West Coast winners, losers in the portal THEATHLETIC.COM Washington suffers heavy losses after a coaching change. Cal keeps its most important weapon. USC bolsters back seven.
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Tasty Tidbits for Devoted Ducks...
Please, keep bits of tid like the above coming!
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Unforeseen Consequences: Will the Student-Athlete Become a “Worker”?
Terrific take, Mike. Thank you. Not only Worker's Comp will be affected by athletes being determined to be 'employees,' but also FICA, FUTA, and State Retirement Funds, and will you be able to drop a player-employee from 1st to 2nd string without allowing him the benefit of an administrative hearing as has been negotiated between the workers union and the employer? IMO, it's inevitable that government action including that by the NLRB and State AGs, private litigation, and the liability that could attach to a university over such long-term injuries as CTE, will cause a split of at least big-time college football from their respective schools. All "indicia" of a football program will be assigned to a 3rd party, such as a private equity fund or the NFL, with the assignor indemnified and receiving an agreed-upon fixed payment. An arrangement with a private equity fund has already been looked into by FSU. Title 9? Tell the men's and women's swim teams that they are free to bargain for whatever deal the market will bear. Will this fly? The only 'remedy' that might work for a university employer will be to simply drop school-funded athletics. To my knowledge, no public school charter requires 'after school' sports. I can see the baby being tossed with the proverbial bath water. And a school like Alabama, for example, will have far fewer out-of-state full tuition dollar applicants. Lawyers private and representing and employed by the government are involved. what could possibly go wrong? Thanks again.
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The B1G Portal and the 'New' SEC
The NFL does not have an NIL salary cap. It does have a cap on what teams can spend overall on the players' salaries but no cap on what an individual can earn off of his NIL. I can see a salary cap coming when CFB morphs into NFL Lite as agreed to between the teams and the Players Union but no cap on NIL. Coaches' contracts have built-in liquidated damages, the cost of a buy-out. In the USA, contracts may provide for penalties and non-compete clauses but cannot be used to tie someone down to a job they do not want. In sports, players are locked into their team for a given time because, again, this is what the Union has collectively (the players being the collective) bargained for. That the NFL deal with the Union deal penalizes rookies and young players in favor of experienced players should come as no surprise. Your take is spot on. I read today, forwarded to me by friend, Notalot, that the AGs of Tennessee and Florida have filed anti-trust litigation against the NCAA. Tennessee because of the NCAA accusing the Vols of improper use of NIL and Florida to help FSU escape the ACC. This along with litigation percolating in state and federal courts will lead to a break of the 'biggest boys' in CFB and agreements with a players' union including restraints on free agency, a salary cap, and quite possibly a high school draft. All of this will drop CFB coaches' salaries closer to the realm of reason. The impetus for consolidation is not only coming from the outside. It's coming from within with FSU being the most dramatic example. FSU wants to be paid according to its market value, investment in football in particular, and on-field success and not share conference revenues equally with Wake Forest. In this regard, FSU is far from unique. It will be a new world for "college" football but whether 'brave' or not remains to be seen.
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2024 Duck Commits (Thread No. 2)
Here's a 2024 updated top 10 recruiting ranking before the 2nd signing day with average NIL payment included. At $82K per player, Oregon appears to be negotiating better than Texas at $225K a player and with better results. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/updated-college-football-recruiting-rankings-ahead-of-national-signing-day-on3-sports#gid=ci02d4bc46600025fb&pid=1-georgia
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Quaaack! Washington CB Jabbar Muhammad Is a Duck
Jabbar Muhammad explains decision to transfer from Washington to Oregon SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM Jabbar Muhammad explains what led him to transfer from Washington to Oregon.
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If You Ain't Cheatin' You Ain't Tryin'!
USC for 1 guy being paid by a 3rd party and with the HC absolved almost received the Death Penalty from the NCAA. Tennessee ran a widespread pay-for-play program with the HC the focal point of the scam and paid $8M to kind of 'Get Out of Jail' for 'free.' Ohio State went undefeated and missed a bowl game because players traded gear for tattoos. UNC ran a decades-long academic scam that benefited its athletes but got off the hook because 'regular students' were also cheating. It's nice to play your ball in Dixie. Tennessee under NCAA investigation related to potential NIL violations across multiple sports - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM The Volunteers wrapped up a separate major infractions case less than a year ago
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2024 BIG Info, Predictions, Etc
Have you seen Stewart Mandel at work? Of all of the 'experts' over the years Stewart has often been the most in error with his preseason rankings. 1. UGA - Roster-wise? Yes. But the 6th most difficult schedule in the SEC with games at Bama, Ole Miss, and TX and OOC games vs Clemson and an improved Georgia Tech. 2. Ohio State. This appears to be the consensus but is Howard a step up at QB from McCord? 2 terrific RBs but someone has to block for these guys. The center from Bama is the guy who kept rolling ground balls in the Rose Bowl. But the OPPS - Ohio State Playoff Protection Schedule does help the cause as does playing 3 lightweights OOC, Harbaugh heading to the NFL, and Michigan playing in Columbus. Based on the schedule, I think there is a good case for tOSU to be No. 1. 3. Texas - 14th easiest schedule in the SEC. No Bama, no Ole Miss, no Mizzou, UGA in Autzen, Ewers vs an RS frosh at QB in the RR Rivalry game. The trip to Ann Arbor was made easier by Michigan's wholesale losses on O and Harbaugh leaving town. 8 conference games means 3 OOC cupcakes. I think a very good argument can be made for Texas to be ranked above Georgia. I do not think the UGA roster will be all that much better than the TX roster. 4. Oregon - This is fine. The Ducks would either get the first-round bye if they came in ahead of OH ST or host the G5 team in a 1st round game in Autzen. But was OH St's portal picking better than OR's? At the most critical position, QB, the Ducks scored the better player. 5. Ole Miss - SEC SOS = 13. No Bama. No TX. UGA and OK trip to Oxford. A 4-0 OOC slate. No. 1 ranked in portal pickings. with an experienced QB back. The toughest away game is at LSU, a team Ole Miss defeated in a shootout in 2023 with the Heisman winner playing QB for Ole Miss. The schedules favor both TX and Ole Miss over UGA in 2024. 6. Michigan? Texas, USC, Oregon, and UW and tOSU away. Ranking Michigan in 2024 is a shot in the dark. 7. Notre Dame - The schedule lightens up but Marcus Freeman? 8. Bama - 4th hardest SEC SOS but all the tougher games, save OK, are at home. Saban is gone but one heck of a roster is left and a very good QB returns. 9. OK St/ 10. Utah? 2 B12 teams in the top 10? Huh? Utah trips to OK St. and will Rising stay healthy? The team I believe will win the B12, K St, is not in Stewart's top 25. And 11. Louisville over Clemson and FSU? Louis trips to Clemson and Notre Dame. Louisville does not beat Kentucky. Unlike last season when Louis had 8 home games in 2024, Louis has 6. Always fun to look at these forecasts but Stewart's reasoning behind these picks especially when looking at the schedules, is not all that logical.
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2024/25 12-Team College Football Playoff Musings
Great take and thoughts. A team will have to be deep, lucky, and good to go all the way. With additional PO games, I believe we will see fewer opt-outs. At least I hope so. It will be important to rotate as many players as possible during the season but this strategy will have to be judged against doing all that is possible to be a top 8 seed with either a 1st Round Bye (a true 'BYE' as you will move ahead in a tournament without playing an opponent; not an Idle or Off Week) or a 1st Round home game. This is NFL Lite, no doubt. I expect the PO will be more NFL-like in 2026 with a 16-team field, no 1st round byes, injury insurance provided by the PO puhbahs, and players sharing in the PO revenues. I also think we will see all teams playing on what is now 'Week 0', one idle week, half the teams on week 6 and the other half on week 7 of the regular season, and the champ game built into the final regular season games with other conference opponents matching up according to where they stand after the season's regular penultimate weekend. I also believe we will see uniformity in the number of conference games played by each conference. One thing I am very interested to see in 2024/25 is how moving deeper into the NFL playoffs and playing the semifinals and final on weeknights will affect viewership. Ditto, playing a quarter-final game on New Year's Eve. Great comment, thank you. When CFB went from 2 to 4, you knew it was a matter of when and not if for further PO expansion.
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Quaaack! Washington CB Jabbar Muhammad Is a Duck
Zack Neal of Ducks Wire take on starting DBs in 2024. CB Jabbar Muhammad and Kam Alexander - UW and UTSA Nickle - Brandon Johson - Duke S - Tyreem Johnson and Kobe Savage - Ole Miss 2022 and Kansas State. So, yes, I believe DL has used the portal to beef up the DBs. Now, how about 1 more big body on the DL? Spring ball, 3 OOC opponents, and a Off Week before playing the first B1G game at UCLA should help the starters mold into a cohesive unit.
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CBS Sports Take on the 'New Big 10'
Greg McElroy believes Ohio State is a lock to make the College Football Playoff in 2024 SATURDAYTRADITION.COM Greg McElroy is going all in on the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2024. Edge JT to date is coming back to tOSU. Another guy from the state of Washington who did not go to UW.
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CBS Sports Take on the 'New Big 10'
Sherrone Moore might be the guy, but Michigan is taking a huge risk with the hire SATURDAYTRADITION.COM Sherrone Moore is ready for a head coaching job and earned the title at Michigan, but that doesn't change the risks associated with the decision. The S+C coach who was making $1M a year at Michigan is also following JH to LA.
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Hapless Husky Recruiting Descends Further...
But how bad can it be for Deion and fils when his sons can afford to buy him a home in uber-expensive Boulder?
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The B1G Portal and the 'New' SEC
https://athlonsports.com/college-football/paul-finebaum-analyzes-sec-teams-that-are-under-most-pressure-in-2024