Jon Joseph

Please let us all recall that what was once a recruiting violation is allowable today and compared with 2012 , the NCAA is a toothless tiger. Have you been to College Station, TX.? I have. Don't go. How do you think Jimbo rounded up the best recruiting class in the country? A+M last won a title in the 1930's and Jimbo has a title because he recruited Jameis to FSU. A+M is one of the 4 AAU member schools in the SEC, but I doubt these recruits focused on educational opportunities when committing to Aggie land. Every OL guy who now signs and plays with Texas is paid $50,000 a season. Every guy on the roster at Miami is 'paid' $6,000 a year. Every walk-on at BYU has his tuition and cost of attendance paid for. And these are the deals that we know about. I don't think many the fan out west 'gets this?' There are less than a handful, if that, of schools in the Pac-12 that have the money to recruit at championship level. The Pac-12 is not playing playoff quality football and is not sending guys to the pros like the SEC and the B1G. So, if you have offers in a better conference, why play in the Pac-12? SMH that a number of fans think that a new commish playing a dead hand is going to turn things around for the Pac-12 in CFB? USC will be in the playoff in 2024? Media is going to pay big money because SC might come back? I don't see it. And BTW when Pete Carroll was at SC, for the most part he was not competing against the LA Rams and the LA Chargers. And the SEC had yet to cement its spot as the It Conference. Let's compare Pac-12 champion Utah with South Carolina. Utah set a school record with 52,000 fans attending to watch the Utes/Ducks regular season game. As Stewart Mandel recently noted the Utes are generally unknown nationally because of the location in the mountain time zone, bad starting times and having to play on the Pac-12 network. South Carolina, a team that has never won an SEC title routinely draws 85.000+ fans to every home game. Routinely draws more eyeballs to media broadcasts of its game than do 10 of the Pac-12 member schools. For Oregon to have a chance in this recruiting environment it has to play the pay for play game. Has to. Oregon has the money to do so. USC has the money to do so. UW has the money to do so. SC and Oregon spend far more on football than the other Pac-12 teams. Yet SC and Oregon get the same share of the proceeds as their 'partners' investing far less? Why? Why remain in a partnership like this? Remaining would not happen in the 'real world.' Big boy CFB is real world business and should not be treated differently by the top partners in the Pac-12 enterprise. CFB is no longer collegial. No longer regional. It is a big time nationwide big business and the 'leaders' of the Pac-12 not seeing this should not blind Oregon to seeing this.

And I don't know how without a move into the central time zone these late KO times can be fixed. Youngsters not watching and not becoming involved today will most likely not be fans down the road.

ACC's position was confirmed yesterday by Brent McMurphy. Dabo and Mack Brown among other ACC coaches do not want more than an 8 team field. Of course Dabo and Brown have both won NCs.

Yes, teams are allowed 92 scholarship players in 2022.

Great take DM. In 2022 you are allowed to go 7 players over the 85 limit so I hope this experienced crew of assistants will properly pluck from the portal. I think Nix is a pretty good start in this direction.

Thanks Charles. CFB is not about the X's and the O's, it's about the Jimmies and the Joes. Round up the best recruits season after season and artfully pluck the portal and in the vast majority of games the team with the more talented roster will win. I am not a huge fan of the Committee in concert with ESPN, releasing weekly rankings but these do provide fodder for conversation and debate and as noted in the article, for the most part the Committee gets the final rankings right. The Committee does not release an after post season ranking but the final AP vote accurately reflects what I believe the Committee would come up with. One thing for certain if the Pac-12 wants to get back into playoff contention it has to keep the talented west coast high school recruits at home. It will be very interesting to see in 2022 how Bo Nix a talented but somewhat erratic QB in the SEC does in Eugene in 2022. It is unfortunate for the conference that Oklahoma flipped talented QB Dillon Gabriel from UCLA. But with Indiana QB Penix transferring to UW and playing for his former OC DeBoer, Purdue QB Plummer transferring to CAL, the aforementioned Nix to Oregon, Rising back at Utah and Dart playing for Lincoln Riley at SC, the QB play in the conference should improve over the average at best QB play in 2021.

My friend, 4 power league teams competing for media dollars would likely be better than 5 power league teams competing for same? I think if the Pac-12 had added 6 teams, forget Iowa State, FOX to block ESPN would have made a move to control Pac-18 media rights and possibly saved the network and the so far wasted investment Pac-12 teams have in the network? Other than for SC and Oregon, both Baylor, OK ST, TX Tech draw more eyeballs than the rest of the Pac-12. I see no reason why Baylor and OK St should suffer a decline in CFB and CBB with OK and TX leaving for the SEC. BYU went 5-0 against the Pac-12 and lost at Baylor. Baylor and OK State both won NY6 games and scored the $ as a result in playing in these games. Cache? What cache do OR St, WA St, Arizona, add to the Pac-12 in CFB?

To date, Alliance members B1G and Pac-12 conferences have indicated that both would be fine with an 8 or 12 team expanded Playoff field. However, the ACC is insisting on an 8 team field with all P5 champs in, the top G5 team in, with two at large teams completing the field. An 8 team field is a no go for the SEC, Notre Dame and G5. One out of 11 members of the Playoff Committee appears to be vetoing an expanded Playoff field. What would an 8 team field per the ACC formula have looked like in 2021? 1. Alabama - SEC - No. 1 in the Playoff Committee's (PC) final ranking. 2. Michigan - B1G - No. 2 in the PC. 3. Georgia - At Large - No. 3 in the PC 4. Cincinnati - G5 - No. 4 in the PC 5. Notre Dame -At Large - No. 5 in the PC 6. Baylor - B12 - No. 7 in the PC 7. Utah - Pac-12 - No. 11 in the PC 8. Pittsburgh - ACC - No. 12 in the PC Now, let's assume the NY6 bowls were used to host the quarter final and semifinal games. Cotton Bowl - 1. Alabama vs 8. Pittsburgh - Heisman finalist Pitt QB Pickett would likely not have opted out, along with 3 other starters on the Pitt roster. Orange Bowl - 4. Cincinnati vs 5 Notre Dame - The Irish top RB and its best player on D would likely have not opted out. Semifinal - Played in the Sugar Bowl Fiesta Bowl - 2. Michigan vs 7 Utah - Utah did not suffer from drop outs but from injury to DBs. No Michigan player dropped out. Peach Bowl - 3. Georgia vs 6. Baylor - Neither team had a 2021 opt out. Semifinal - Played in the Rose Bowl. To make this work calendar-wise all conferences and Notre Dame begin the season in Week Zero. Quarterfinals are played in December with the semifinal games played on New Year's Day. All NY6 bowls 'matter.' Playoff teams do not sit idle for 30 plus days. So, the ACC proposal at least to me, seems to be reasonable. And no conference needs playoff field expansion more than the Pac-12. But as noted above an 8 team field will not be approved by 8 of the 11 Playoff Committee members. Interestingly, in 2021, using the ACC formula Notre Dame would have been in. Cincinnati would have been in. And the SEC would have comprised 25% of the playoff field. I do not disagree with the ACC's formula but I do disagree with an Alliance member frustrating Playoff expansion before 2026. An Alliance member that thanks mainly to Clemson, has appeared in 7 of 8 Playoff final 4s. The Playoff powers-that-be meet again in March to discuss Playoff expansion. IMO and with ESPN, the exclusive Playoff broadcaster, agreeing to sweeten the pot prior to the existing deal expiring after the 2025 season, I hope expansion will not be stymied by the ACC? Is the ACC 'in' the Alliance or is it not?

I'm very, very interested to see what happens in the Bama/UGA rematch this coming Monday? Bill O'Brien schooled Smart and Lanning in the SEC champ game. Of course Bama did have more to play for but the Bama O exposed the UGA pass D. If UGA cannot get pressure on Young, zero sacks in the SEC champ game and very few hurried passes, Bama wins. I don't believe that Stetson Bennett has the 'moxie' to beat Bama.

But the end game for Utah? How about let Ohio State score without letting the approximately 10 minutes being chewed up before tOSU kicked the close to walk-off winning FG? At least this decision should have been made when Ohio State got into FG territory. The Oregon D was absolutely gassed and the Utes back up QB had put up a TD on an Ohio State D that played better in the 2nd half but was still vulnerable. There is reason why Ryan Day has hired the OK ST DC, who did a great job this season, as the new DC at tOSU.

The Alliance. So far what we have from the Alliance is a home OOC game versus a B1G or ACC team every other year. I don't think that Arizona playing at Duke for example is going to incent the networks to come with more money? Look at the future OOC games and many impactful OOC games vs P5 teams, including the SEC, have already been scheduled. As GK noted the Pac-12 is flexible on playoff expansion. Fine with 8 or 12 teams while the ACC is insisting on 8 teams only. In addition to the points I made earlier regarding B12 expansion, a P5 competitor would have been eliminated and the Network possibly could have moved into the black? With Bob Bowlsby making the astute additions to the B12, where is the Pac-12 going to go in Texas? SMU, Rice, UTSA, UTEP. I respect your POV and others who agree with you, of course. But not striking when the iron was hot IMO was a terrible, extremely short-sighted business decision. We'll see when the new TV deals are negotiated but my guess is that the 'New B12' will score more money than the Pac-12 and the Network is not going to be saved by continuing to serve the exact same market place. The Pac-12 could have expanded at a time when it would have been viewed as 'the good guy' coming to the rescue of remaining B12 teams. The 'New B12' just sent a team to the playoff and Baylor and OK ST both won NY6 bowls. When do you see this happening with the Pac-12 standing pat?

DM, great post. But it begs the question? Should this guy have been Oregon's HC in the Alamo Bowl. Even if he is the only guy to follow Mario to Miami?

With Gabriel Dillon dropping UCLA for Oklahoma I'm pretty sure Williams ends up at Georgia.

I'm shocked! Mullens let THIS GUY be the HC for the Alamo Bowl? I liked the suggestion a poster had to match Bellotti vs Bob Stoops. Letting this guy coach was letting the fox into the hen house. Will Robby Ashford among others follow?

Disagree on B12 expansion or lack thereof. Market share follows market size. Most acquisitions do not immediately add to the acquiring company's bottom line. But over time synergies and new markets add positive results. Baylor just won the Sugar Bowl. OK ST won the Fiesta Bowl. Houston defeated Auburn. Texas Tech destroyed Mississippi State. Kansas State and Iowa State both were bowl eligible. TCU happens to be in the huge Dallas marketplace. In the other money ball sport, CBB, the B12 teams including Kansas are very competitive, including NCAA titles in 2 of the last 3 seasons. THIS would not have given GK more to sell? Quality? In both CFB and CBB adding Baylor, Houston, OK ST, KS, K ST, TX Tech and Iowa State would have added quality and market places where CFB matters. BTW - Dillon Gabriel dropped UCLA in favor of Oklahoma and it's odds on that Williams is headed to Georgia.

Terrific article Darren, thank you. But I disagree that the Pac-12 is on the rise. Strongly disagree. Please see my response to Woodbuther's excellent take: Organized Turmoil. I vented enough there without piling on here. If Oregon and USC were a stock I'd advise, BUY. But the conference as a whole, I advise, SELL.

Thanks for the great post. But Playoffs? Playoffs! Since George Kliavkoff (GK) replaced Larry Scott the spin has stopped. No more spin, thank goodness GK tells the truth and talks the talk. GK knows how important it is for the Conference of Champions to win titles that matter: CFB and CBB titles. As GK says, 'the Pac-12 is in a valley.' 2017 -2021, the conference is 8-22 in postseason CFB play. 1-5 in NY6 bowls. Zero Playoff invites. In 2021 vs FBS opponents out-of-conference the Pac-12 went 9-18. The Pac-12 went 0-5 in its 2021 bowls including the first loss to a MAC school in 18 years. Pac-12 recruiting is simply bad. The Orange bowl between Georgia and Michigan featured starting QBs from Reno and 'LA.' The Heisman winner, Bryce Young from 'LA" is the QB at Bama. The Rose Bowl winning QB, Ohio State's Stroud, is from LA. Insult to injury, QB Dillon Gabriel just flipped his commitment from UCLA to Oklahoma. Understandable with the Bruins having a lame duck (sorry Puddles) head coach. And it appears that Oklahoma QB Caleb Williams will not be following Lincoln Riley to SC but will instead be signing with Georgia. From 2014-2018 participation in high school football in California dropped 11.7% During this same period participation dropped 3.2% in Georgia and 0.6% in Florida. The Pac-12 average head coach and assistant coach salaries are the lowest in the G5. Washington State lost a winning head coach to a bottom feeder SEC program. CU could not come close to matching Michigan State's offer to Mel Tucker. USC opened the wallet for Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley and the assistants he brought with him. SC has also significantly upped its recruiting budget including hiring additional staff to help with recruiting. Oregon is paying 'market value' for a new coach without head coaching experience and for his staff. Yet, Oregon spends approximately $1.3M per annum on recruiting. One third of what Georgia spends on recruiting. Only Vandy in the SEC spends less than Oregon on recruiting. Many the Pac-12 stadia are 'empty' and silent on game day. One has to ask if all 12 conference teams and their respective administrators are all-in in being competitive in CFB and CBB? And, even if all-in do they have the money to spend that is required to be competitive in the money ball sports? The Pac-12 under the current media agreement is stuck with lousy, late kick off times. The Pac-12 Network is a functionally insolvent albatross. Having decided not to expand into the central time zone by adding Sugar Bowl winner Baylor, Fiesta Bowl winner Oklahoma State, a Houston team that defeated Auburn, a Texas Tech squad that blew out Mississippi State, bowl eligible Iowa State and Kansas State and basketball power Kansas, along with top to bottom strong CBB programs, what does GK have to sell come media renegotiation time other than what Larry Scott had to sell? Oregon and USC are spending the money necessary to compete at the highest level. Yet, the Ducks and Trojans get the same revenue share as do schools that do not come close to spending the same amount of money. ROI wise, SC and Oregon are taking it in the financial shorts. Go 13-0 and as a P5 champ and you will be in the Playoff. But 13-0 is a big ask when you go 'on the road' versus Georgia, play BYU out-of-conference and then play 5 conference road games. Since the Pac-12 added CU and Utah, no Pac-12 team has gone 13-0. As weak as the conference is, 12-1 does not by any means guarantee a Playoff spot. Oregon is in a tough position. I fervently hope that before Oregon pledges its media rights to the new Pac-12 media deal that it will consider other alternatives? Alternatives where there will be an opportunity to make more money and to play with partners willing and able to spend the money required to be competitive. Again, thanks for the terrific comment.

OK fans are predicting he goes to UGA. Love it if he decided on the Ducks but I don't see it. If he signed at Oregon and other guys not as talented left; well, that's the nature of today's game and the portal. No one in the QB room in 2021 was good enough to beat out Brown. Speaks for itself.

Fortune Favors The Bold. The 'new' B12 won the Sugar and Fiesta Bowl and had a final 4 team. Houston defeated an SEC team as did UCF. BYU lost its bowl game without its starting QB.

Moved up from the opening -2.5. Will Oregon open 2022 vs the defending champ or the runner up?

Plus, the schedule is a witch. "At" Georgia and versus BYU OOC and 5 conference road games.

Thank you. Now that B12 is reestablished where could the conference if it wanted to, expand? It's a question of $. SC and OR spend the $ necessary to be competitive and its partners do not. Partners that get an equal piece of the pie. The Pac-12 conference today makes no business sense for Oregon and SC. The Alliance is good protection for GK's job and that's about it. I don't expect the B1G to start sharing $ with the Pac-12 anytime soon.

OK. But that was an Ohio State team missing 2 AA WRs and 6 starters on D. Utah scored 10 points in the 2nd half and the Utah DL was stymied by the Buckeyes OL. 80/20 Utah fans and Utah was incredibly geeked and the Buckeyes were not. Utah gave up over 500 yards through the air and Smith-Ngata set an all time bowl receiving record.

$?

Or, play all playoff games on campus except for the champ game played in the Rose Bowl on 1/1. CFB is tied to the bowls by tradition and nothing else. Expand the field and incent teams to get home games via better seeding as a result of better strength of schedule.