EastBayDuckDad

Idontroll, got any spare Kingsford? I was doing OK until this morning but now I'm thinking I could flatulize fountains of flawless faceted fractal floes. Might as well do something constructive while I wait for kickoff.

While I dislike the quality of Pac-12 officiating as much as every other OBD fan, I would be pretty shocked to see that kind of disparity in calls. It seems to me that the soon to be conferenceless refs would want to go out as something other than the laughing stock of CFB if they ever hope to be employable again. The truly odious and incompetent refs have declared themselves time and again on the televised games. We all know who they are. I'll be watching with a jaundiced eye as the crew is introduced hoping to not see the worst of the lot. Oregon has been penalized far too much this year due largely to unforced errors and some undisciplined play. The zebras have done them no favors, but if you want to keep the refs out of the game, don't let them into it.

That story disappeared in a gnat's heartbeat. So no confirmation as yet. What a stupid bit of info to leak hours before this game if it is indeed true as it serves no useful purpose in the Oregon locker room. If Ward does indeed ultimately transfer to Oregon, great. It means that the staff sees the best way forward in 2024 is with another veteran QB. Cross that bridge when they come to it, hopefully after a Duck win tonight.

It is actually the TE #37 Westover, that I'd be a bit concerned about. He has caught a few passes in important settings the last couple of games, finding gaps in and behind the LB zone coverage to move the chains. He provides Penix a short throw safety valve and has picked up some of the slack created by Polk and McMillan being less productive. I wouldn't be surprised to see his role expand today, particularly if their run game sputters and if the Ducks have Bassa and Jacobs pin their ears back to come after Penix. #37 is no TFerg and he isn't the greatest run blocker, but he could present an unpleasant surprise or two if left uncovered. I'm assuming DL and Tosh are going to be on top of that.

I would agree that the mutts have relied more on their ground game since 10/14, but not convinced it is that much better. It is not terribly balanced as it has depended on Johnson for >75% of the carries. If you take that insane performance against a horrid U$C run defense out of the equation, the numbers settle down quite a bit, particularly in the last two games. Fuskys O-line is pretty decent in pass protect but less so when running the ball. OSU held them to 110 yds on the ground with Johnson getting most of those touches. Ditto WSU at 102 yds. Oregon played to par against the Beavs since Bo lit them up so bad through the air but Bucky and Co. rolled up 248 on the Cougs. If Johnson is a bit dinged up those numbers won't even be that good against the Duck run defense. Then their offense goes back to depending on how well Penix's arm works. DeBoer and crew have been leaning away from that previously successful strategy since the Oct 14 game and probably will need the run to keep Oregon's safeties honest. If #33 and Co. can stay back in Cover 1 or even 2, while the front seven takes care of business, those Odunze daggers get harder to accomplish.

JJ, thanks for the in depth look.The before and après OBD stats are significantly different for the Fusky offense. Much of that falls on Penix, but some on their revamped O-line and lack of production from any WR not named Odunze. Hythloday1 over at ADQ has done his usual fine job of reviewing the opponent. His insights on why the mutts have underperformed on offense since Oct 14 warrant a look. Duck Tape: Film Analysis Update of Washington 2023 WWW.ADDICTEDTOQUACK.COM A preview of Oregon’s Pac-12 Championship opponent in Las Vegas While Penix seems to be dealing with some issue(s) that has him at less than peak performance, watch the clip that shows him throwing a dime to #1's back shoulder for a TD against WSU. Injury or no, that is a lethal and undefendable pass that he is still capable of making. The Ducks front seven will need to put enough pressure on Penix to make that throw tough to complete.

Perfect ending. Even Pac-12 refs would be hard pressed to throw a flag when OBD are being such gentlemen.

Keep the hits clean, no emotional, late or stupid hits. No targeting, dammit! 15 yards for roughing the passer on a bang bang play will happen periodically but think about losing Dorlus or Burch to a targeting call in the 2nd quarter. That is the kind of bad that could flip this game to Fusky. Yeah, hit the guy early and often. He rapidly loses his throwing platform and gets inaccurate when he's about to get smacked. Let him constantly hear the pitter-patter of size 15 webbed feet. Make him have gametime single digit nightmares where the numbers #0, #1, #2, #3, #4, #5 and #9 float around his brain like little tweety birds. Keep him skittish and not setting his feet as he understands he won't see the next pressure that's coming. Keep it clean, smart and legit. And after every hit, sack and awkward landing, quietly reintroduce yourself saying "Hi Michael Jr, I'm Jordan, Brandon, Jeffrey, Tysheem, Jamal, etc. and I thought about you all week. Wanted to let you know that #33 is coming by next. Oh yeah and Bo for Heisman"

Watched that play a couple of times and I agree that the zebs swallowed their whistles on that push off on the final play. Consistent with how SEC refs 'let'em play'. While Bama was the beneficiary of that missed call, Auburn hurt themselves by taking a defender out of the play, sitting him 5 yds behind the LOS. He appeared to be a 'spy' on Milroe, but If he rushes maybe the Bama QB doesn't have an hour of time to find his receiver. Auburn killed themselves and in doing so made Oregon's path to the CFP more difficult. So Auburn does it again. War Eagle my fanny. And Dyer's knee was down, dammit!

Oregon 41-31 1 TO 2 Sacks 365 yds passing Penix may only get dropped twice but he will be harassed, pressured and smacked a dozen times. One errant pass gets picked off. Bo gets 3 TDs thru the air and one on the ground. His Heisman will grace the other one in the display case.

Glancing at the Fusky sites this week has been educational, particularly if you read between the lines a bit. I saw the poll that ABNMoose cited on how many points Fusky Fan thinks Oregon will score tomorrow. 78% thought it would be at least 29, 37% thought 36 or more and 10% at least 43 points In the six games since Oct 14, UW has averaged 32 pts/game. Oregon has averaged 42 against essentially the same competition and had higher margins of victory because of how well the defense is playing. Given the tendency to minimize the prowess of the opponent in any rabid fan base, an admission by Fusky Fan that the Ducks could score more than the mutts average is telling. I get the distinct impression from their fan sites that they are bravely spouting the party line of a UW victory, but are privately conceding that the numbers don't support it.

Idontroll, I have a business proposition for you.

Funny that Bama is still in the conversation only because of a Hail Mary delivered against a team that lost to New Mexico State the previous week. While I don't think it will come down to a last second Vegas miracle for a Duck victory, I'll gladly bow my head, bend my knee and genuflect for a Hail Mary finale if that puts OBD in the playoff.

This scenario reminds me of 2014 where an unranked Arizona beat #2 Oregon at home. In the stunning loss at Autzen, Oregon made mistakes, allowed long drives and had too many penalties, including a critical roughing the passer on a sack that allowed Arizona to continue the final drive that won them the game. Oregon then went on a 7-0 tear to finish, outscoring teams by 288-163. The CG was a dominant 51-13 Oregon beatdown that was led by the defense shutting down #8 Arizona's 500+yd per game offense (granted with their backup QB) allowing only 25yds total in the first half. That was then and this is now. This 2023 Oregon team has a better defense and a comparable offense to the 2014 version. But as in 2014, the lessons learned from a loss resulted in an epic run to the Pac-12 CG. Fusky has provided the Ducks with hours of game film against common opponents where they survived by the skin of their canines. Opponents that Oregon blew out decisively. Since that first match up in Seattle the mutts have had every potential weakness exposed. DL and staff will have both sides of the ball prepared. Oregon must play smart and error free football, limiting the advantages that UW has at the WR position. The 9.5 line sounds about right given what these two teams have done since the last meeting. The Ducks are the more talented and deeper team overall but cannot underestimate an underDOG but still dangerous Fusky squad that is being told by the pundits and Vegas that they will lose. I'm hoping for a 2014 replay where the Oregon defense controls the LOS and OBD jumps out to a lead that Fusky can't overcome. Don't let them back in with inopportune penalties, iffy coaching decisions and mistakes. And please, oh please, don't let the outcome rest on a kick as time expires. My bet is they won't and the Ducks punch their ticket to the CFP.

Dang. Don't tell me that I now have to root for Alabama. I like Oregon to win the whole thing with that lineup. Nope, I rather the Ducks not face the Dawgs but too much risk that they'd let two SEC teams in. So.... Go Dawgs!

Spot on, Charles. Really interesting that TFerg was so well positioned on the motion making me think that the play had a probability baked in that the LB/Edge would bite on the inside RB fake. The meld on the fake was so fast that it looked to me like Bucky knew he wasn't getting the ball. Masterful play call. While I don't want to see Bo run if he doesn't have to, those zone reads and three pronged RPOs keep a defense guessing about if and when Bo will take off. Justin's runs the last two games of 2019-20 were something DCs hadn't planned on and they were very successful. They put Oregon in the Rose Bowl and then carried them to victory. So if the read is there, Go, Bo, Go!

Fun exercise but I don't believe for a microsecond the CFP committee ices out a one loss SEC champ Alabama if Michigan, FSU, Texas and Oregon all win. That probability was set at 22% and the UGA v Bama spread is only 5 pts, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. Would Bama leapfrog a Texas team they lost to at home (unlikely) or could Texas and Alabama get in with Pac-12 champion Oregon left out? The new CFP rankings coming out tomorrow should clarify this and tell us how much cred Oregon has, but nothing is a lock. Personally I believe Oregon wins and they're in but this is the one scenario that makes me uncomfortable.

Looks like he'll be available...

If: Oregon beats Fusky in Vegas. Dawgs beat Bama in Altanta Michigan beats Iowa in Indy. FSU limps home against Louisville in Charlotte IMHO, the CFP Final Four: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. FSU 4. OBD IMO the only thing that can screw this up (aside from an Oregon loss) is Georgia falling to Alabama and SEC bias putting both of them in and pushing Oregon out.

Charles, thanks for the eye popping 2023 OBD stats. Championship strength on both sides of the ball and in half of the kicking game. If Oregon can minimize the risk from that Achilles Heel (pun intended, sadly) other half of the kicking game, the Pac-12 CG will be a win followed with a highly likely CFP berth.

Coaches Poll. No real bearing on CFP ranking but if reinforced by the AP it'll be a trend that's hard to ignore. 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Fusky 4. FSU 5. OBD 6. tOSU 7. Texas 8. Alabama

All of the 'broken Penix' off color joking aside, Triphib's observation is not only the funniest of the day but IMO pretty darn accurate. He is not the same QB technically (maybe emotionally too) that sqeaked out a win against OBD six weeks ago. Almost all of the Fusky tight wins since the Oregon game have involved someone other than Penix rising (sorry) to the occasion and pulling them to a victory. While I believe that he will play a better game against Oregon than he has the last several opponents, Penix has shown weaknesses that DL, Tosh and crew will be able to exploit. The Ducks are at least one offensive TD and one defensive stop better than UW going into Vegas. Probably more if OBD can play four quarters of complete football. If Oregon's defense can: Pressure Penix into quick decisions and throws with smart blitzing and a double dose of Dorlus and Burch; Keep Odunze from going off with strategic situational double teams and deep safety help as needed; Bottle up the UW run game with sound D-line gap integrity; Keep the short passing game in check with disciplined ILB play; ...then Oregon will win. The major concern I have with the Fusky defense is that they have played well in the 4th qtr. Trice has been effective on the edge and Muhammad has been close to a lock down DB in coverage. But if Oregon runs it's offense like it has the past 6 weeks, gets Bucky and James going (they should as UW is suspect against the run) and Bo distributes the ball, they are two scores better than the Purple Poodles. And please, oh please don't let this game be a three point affair in the 4th. The only place where Fusky has a relative advantage is with their kicker. Oregon's main vulnerability is a potential replay of October 14 and needs to be up by those two scores late in the game.

Congrats, Abūelo Pato! Welcome to the flock. You nailed the defense's ability to hold the Beav's to under two TDs.

No one on the OBD site should delude themselves about Penix being 'broken'. His play has not been as stellar in the last several games as it was before the Fuskys got their skin of the teeth win over Oregon. Maybe he is nursing an injury but don't count him out. They have still managed to win every game even if Penix has not looked great. The Petulant Purple Poodle Piddlers have won on solid defense and their skill players like Odunze continuing to play at a high level even if Penix hasn't. Oregon, particularly the defense, needs to operate next Friday at the level we have seen in the last several games. Like U$C earlier in the year, UW has been just barely getting by, eking out wins over teams they should beat by at least two scores. They nearly got beat at home by a WSU team they should have buried. That doesn't mean they won't play their best against the Ducks. A focused, disciplined Oregon team will expose those weaknesses, but the defense will need to play even better than how they played yesterday. Without Florence it will be a taller task. Manning had a good Civil War with a nice pick, but he was inconsistent and got a stupid PF penalty. The Fusky receivers are at a different level than OSU's and won't suffer fool's lightly. If the front seven can get pressure on Penix and the DBs can keep Odunze and Polk from big explosive plays, it'll be a long day for the Fuskys and a fun one for OBDs. Oregon is the better team, peaking at the right time and should win by two scores. But they've gotta play lights out.

I would maintain it is less the 'yips' and more a technical issue with either his left foot plant or the angle his right foot is hitting the ball. Lewis is consistently pushing the ball right on his FG attempts and even on his PATs. Like a golfer that is struggling with a slice because of club head position at the strike. I'm sure his confidence to hit the ball square is shaken, but if he can correct the mechanics, he'll improve. Maybe it's because there isn't a good alternative but Lanning seems to be willing to stay with him for now. We fans will have to as well.