Triphibius

Bo Nix. Many of our plays are his audibles, anyway. This way we get to keep him another year, and save some money on the OC's salary (Just kidding)

Duck Tape: Statistical Review of Week 13, 2022 at Oregon State WWW.ADDICTEDTOQUACK.COM There is a stark dividing line in this game for both teams’ statistical performances. It happens with about 8 and a half minutes left in the 3rd quarter, when Oregon State fumbled the ball for... I am recommending Hythloday's analysis of the game for those of you who bear thinking about this for another ten minutes. His method is to score plays as successes and failures (both on offense and defense) then tabulate the percentages. He concludes that Oregon was doing well on both sides of the ball until the fumble. After that point, Oregon was unable to run the ball or stop the run. Hytholoday admits to some puzzlement about this reversal, which does not seem to be related to any personnel or schematic changes. My explanation: the special teams errors, especially the kickoff returns, handcuffed an offense that had been rolling, which gave the Beavers hope. OSU played hard most of the game, and once their emotions were engaged again, emotion was the big equalizer. I have to give the opponent some credit, but the door was left open by our failed kickoff returns. I understand players who try and are beaten by better or luckier athletes. I am less sympathetic regarding mental mistakes that provide opportunites to opponents who down by several touchdowns. Although I am still in Lanning's corner, I do wonder why a better decision makers (such as Bucky Irving) was not fielding those kicks. Thank you for your patience. I expect many are sick of the topic.

After the OSU debacle, the coach who ought to be on the "hot seat" is the special teams coach. Also, as I believe Fishduck may have said, it is not clear that the decision to rely so heavily on the Cover 2/prevent defense was made by Lupoi.

I have a proposal. I say this as someone who has been in the Butterfield camp in the ongoing backup discussion. Think of the situation like a world series game in which you are down 3 games to 2. Your goal is to win the series, but you must win the first game to get to the second. How can this be done? If the staff prefers Ty to Jay, then consider starting Ty and staying with him as long as the offense is performing well enough to achieve a victory. I estimate that Oregon will need about 28 points to win. This is assuming that the defense plays almost as well as against Utah, but that a few breaks go against us. The advantages of the approach: 1) the threat of QB runs (only of the prudent sort, Mr. Fishduck) restores dynamism to the run game; 2) if the run game is working, Ty is set up for success in the passing game via play action; 3) if successful, Bo can rest for the USC game; 4) if initially unsuccessful, Bo can be brought in from the “bullpen.” I am not entirely convinced about the wisdom of this, but I am concerned about our ability to move the football consistently if OSU can stop the run as Utah did. This plan would be more appealing if is Alex Forsyth is available.

Good points have been made by all. In addition, let me add or elaborate on these, in so doing comparing not only to last week but last year: 1. Oregon matched up much better with Utah than Washington. Oregon is fairly good run defense team led by a capable run-stuffing linebacker, that can struggle against the pass. Utah is a power running team that does not the wideouts Washington and USC have, and relies on the run to set up the pass. 2. Last year, Oregon's staff inexplicably failed to match personnel groups when Utah went with "jumbo packages" with additional linemen or tight ends. This gave the appearnace the Utah was better at the line of scrimmage, but was a schematic not a personnel advantage. I assumed that Lanning would not let the gain such an edge. 3. Casey Rogers looked like an all conference player last night, and his teammates, even if they could not get to the QB, got their hands up. Rogers credited their position coach for teaching different and more effective techniques than Oregon was using last year.

Hats off to the players and coaches for a gritty win. That said, words can barely express my disapproval of that gadget play. The one thing you cannot do up 17-3 is make some bonehead play that lets the opponent get back in the game. Oregon looked like the better team at that point. If you are the better squad, trust your players and your scheme, and offer your opponent no gifts. This is not complicated.

Let me restate my point. I think Oregon's defense matches up much better with Utah than Washington. This is based primarily on the belief that Noah Sewell can closer to matching Tavian Thomas's power than anyone the Utes will face. I also think that Gonzalez may be able to neutralize their top wideout, and Rising does not throw often to the others. Yes, I am concerned about their tight end, but hopeful that Bassa will rise to the occasion, assuming that he has primary responsiblity. Regarding last week, two points. First, Washington had the number 1 passing offense in college football. No one was complaining when De Ruyter's defense gave up vast chunks of real estate to the OSU last year. Wasington was also good. Second, regardless of their struggles, the defense did make some stops in the red zone and get a takeaway. The game would have been won were it not for some bad officating, an errant snap by an outstanding player, and an injury. Sorry, that was old business, but I wanted to get it off my chest.

Sorry, I hit a key inadvertently, and would like to complete the thought. Rising tends to throws to 2 or 3 receivers and neglects the others. Hence, if Gonzalez can lock down or control Vele, the main issue is dealing with their tight end and sometimes their pass receiving running back. Bassa's play will be critical. If our linebackers play well in run defense and pass coverage, the defense may have a pretty good day.

Fine article. My compliments. Pertinent comment also by Happy. Regarding the defense, I want to report some conclusions from Hythoday's analysis, if that is permitted: 1. Tavian Thomas is a load, but if anyone has the personnel match up with him, it if Oregon: Noah Sewell. 2. Rising focuses on 2 or 3 receivers.

My apologies for not reading the entire threat, but I agree with Freddy's conclusion. If not for the bad snap, Oregon would have scored a touchdown, attained a two score and left little time on the clock. Lanning's approach in the fourth quarter was sound, whatever one says about his gambles at the end of the first half. The officials also did us few favors. Conclusion: Lanning was mostly unlucky.

I agree with you all. I made a similar observation right after the game. Jackson Powers-Johnson was given a penalty for touching an opponents helmet, an action that had no impact on the play, as the ball carrier had already run through the hole. The penalty was in effect a 35 yard penalty, which cost Oregon 4 points and provided the margin of victory. I am not saying that was the wrong call, but if the officials are going to punish contact to the helmet that severely, then spearing another player ought to be taken seriously, also, especially when it clearly affected the course of the game. This is the third instance that I can recall where a dirty hit cost Oregon the game. The others were, ironically, the hit on Justin Herbert in the game where Bo was Auburn's QB, and a hit on Masoli by Boise State's safety probably in Bellotti's last year. Frustrating.

I agree with Fishduck, except that I am a little angry. Dillingham has deserved the praise he has received, and I am grateful for his coaching. However, the quarterback run out of the spread formation was too predictable. It was his worst play call of the season, at the worst possible time. Nix left the game at a pivotal moment when the Washington tackler hit him on the knee or the thigh with his helmet. After all of the suspensions of Oregon players for targeting, the Huskies win the game with a dirty hit. That bothers me more than the questionable sideline call. A team ought not to gain an advantage by deliberately or recklessly endangering another player. Washington played well, but Oregon was the better team, especially at the line of scrimmage.

However, I would like to point out that Forsyth played an outstanding game. Oregon was in a position to win in large part because of the play of our offensive line, to which he contributed a great deal. He was playing with a bad shoulder, and I am sure that it was bothering him. I suspect it was the main cause of the bad snap. Oregon could have won despite that, but that is for another thread.

This is my best guess: Ty can make the runs in the RPO and passing games but cannot reliably make the reads in Dillingham's offense; and Jay can probably make most of the reads, but cannot make the runs. Ty's reads might improve; Jay cannot alter his body type (beyond a point). Jay was skinny when he arrived, and is still slight of built for a QB. He has displayed some mobility, but not enough to turn a routine keep on a read option into an explosion play, unlike Bo Nix. Jay may not be able to take or avoid the hits that come from running the football. Like like many of you, I would like to see more of Jay. Darren Thomas was not Lamar Jackson, either, but ran Chip's system very well. It is hard to tell whether Ty is just disengaged and has checked out already, or whether he just has a Dennis Dixon-type personality, and will never by able to lead expect by performance. We do not have much information, and I have confidence in these conclusions.

I am not. Pink stinks.

Four quick observations on this continuing topic: 1. Thompson is being asked to run an offense in garbage time whose main purpose is to avoid running up the score on opponents. I admire Coach Lanning's sportsmanship, but it is hard for Thompson and his teammates to make much of an impression doing this. 2. Carm25 is right to caution us drawing conclusions about Thompson's demeanor from a distance. Dennis Dixon looked confused (but not dazed!) for several years, then began playing at a high or even Heisman level as a senior before his injury. Not everyone needs to be Tim Tebow. Introverts can succeed, if they can play the position. 3. An article I read about six months ago (perhaps linked here) stated that the star grades given to high school QBs are based almost entirely on "measurables" such as arm strength and foot speed. What is not assessed, at least not with much precision, are factors such as the ability to read defenses and to throw accurately. Given the importance of these abilities in QB performance, I suspect that the Oregon fans' expectations about Ty Thompson may have been somewhat unrealistic. 4. Of course, I do not watch the practices. That said, Butterfield looked very good during the spring game. He was a four star recruit, with respectable arm strength and some mobility in the pocket, whose father was a coach. He also seems to have an excellent rapport with Bo Nix.

Perhaps my eyesight was affected by the late hour in the eastern time zone, but the team I saw yesterday on television did not look like a playoff caliber team. However, I expect their concentration and execution will improve when facing more challenging opponents, such as UCLA.

Not disagreeing with the other contributors to the thread, but some things concern me: 1. The puzzling ineptitude in the red zone in the first half. Some credit is due to the Cougars, of course, but the playcalling did not seem inspired. Moving the ball between the twenties accumulates pretty statistics, but does not with games unless the drives are completed with TDs. It appeared to me that Oregon's OC was outcoached by WSU's DC in the first half. 2. The disappointing lack of discipline on the part of experienced players that nearly lost the Ducks the game. 3. The often porous pass defense. This could be serious issue against teams like Washington, OSU, Arizona, Utah and USC if the Ducks eventually face them.

Thanks for joining us, OST8. I am leaning towards what I would term a merger with the Big 12. In addition to revenue, my concerns with this are two: 1) respecting the lives of student-athletes in all sports, which means not imposing travel schedules on them appropriate only for pro athletes; 2) bringing into the new league or organization our long-time rivals and partners: WSU, Cal and our local OSU. Some issues I foresee: 1) What to do with UCF and West Virgina, which are quite distant from Eugene, Oregon; 2) What to do about the total number, which would be 22 I believe if everyone now or soon to be affiliated with each league remained. Others no doubt know the revenue numbers better, but that is what I want. I am very much open to persuasion at this point, not that Messieurs Kliavkoff and Mullen are likely to consult me.

From Jon Wilner, cited IN Duck Territory: Source: “I’d be stunned if Washington and Oregon go to the Big Ten. The Big Ten will sit back for two years, then try to get Notre Dame” Growing reality is the Ducks and Huskies have to 1) make it work in the #Pac12 or 2) join the Big 12. My guess: 1) is their preference. What are your thoughts?

Thank you both for your responses. I am not as informed about the financial issues as others on this site, so bear with me. I assume that from the TV networks perspective, the point is to get as many eyeballs staring at the screen on Saturday afternoon as possible. With that in mind, what incentive would people in Houston have to tune into a WSU versus OSU game? Would there not have to be some inter-divisional play to interest folks in the Big 12 Land in the games involving west coast teams? The best system for me is one in which you play everyone in your division and a few teams from the other division, as we have done recently in the Pac 12. Again, that would be unwieldy if some of the current 22 teams were not removed. Happy Fourth to all.

I am going to approach this by stating first the criteria or principles according to which the conference restructuring ought to be done. Criteria: 1. To enable the U of O to be competitive nationally, to maintain and if possible, elevate the programs’ competitiveness. 2. To maintain traditional rivalries and partnerships, especially with the northwest and Bay Area universities. 3. To treat the student-athletes and fans of all collegiate sports with respect, not burdening them with a travel schedule appropriate only for professional athletes. Alternatives: 1. Enter the former Big 10, possibly forming a Western pod with former PCC schools. 2. Some sort of merger with the former and soon to become Big 12. 3. Expand the former Pac 12 to return to 12 teams, possibly with SDSU and Boise State. Discussion: 1. I view the Big 10 as morally discredited, too distant, and probably not favorable to our competitiveness. If most of the games are within our pod, this may not be as bad as I feared initially. It certainly means throwing Cal, WSU, and Beavers under the bus. 2. The current membership of the Pac 12 is ten, and the membership of the Big 12 is to return to 12 with the addition of the new members. This would be cumbersome if all 22 are admitted to the league. In a game of musical chairs, someone is not going to get a seat, possibly the same trio I mentioned above. Moreover, traveling to Morgantown and Orlando violates the third criterion. This might be acceptable as a “hostile takeover” in which we can dictate the terms. This would mean creaming off the most attractive programs from the Big 12 and casting the others adrift. I don’t know if we have that kind of bargaining leverage, and I do not feel great about it, although UCF does not belong in the league traditionally or geographically. 3. Meets the second and third criteria, possibly not the first. The implicit standard might be that Oregon has to run the table in what would be deemed the weakest conference to be considered for a four-team playoff. I am still cogitating. This is presented simply for the purposes of discussion.

If the B1G wants the U of O, I would be reluctant to join. The best option seems to me to merge with the some or all of the Big-12. It could be a better league than the ACC, if needed the ACC survives. The Greedy Ten's detachment of Nebraska accelerated the disintegration of the Big-12 and all the traditional regional leagues. USC may have initiated contact, but they accepted, which is in my view the most odious, treacherous act of villainy in the whole sorry history. Finally, does no one feel any regret about leaving behind longtime competitors and colleagues such as Oregon State, California, and Washington State? If Mrs. Bowerman had not owned a waffle iron, the U of O might now be the same position. There but for the grace of God go we. I suppose that I will turn the television on come fall, but I am repelled by the uncontrolled greed that is destroying traditional college football.

I thought Butterfield looked better than Thompson in the spring game. Thompson was not consistently impressive during the season. No disrespect to the former staff, but I am not assuming that they evaluated talent at QB accurately.

I am deeply grateful as a fan for all that Kelly accomplished at the U of O. However.... 1. He, too, left for greener pastures. 2. He left a mess, by cutting corners with recruiting. 3. He is arrogant, and annoys the press and boosters. 4. He is not a dedicated recruiter. 5. The system that he used here (not only scheme but nutrition and training) is no longer a novelty. Why would we expect better results than he achieved in Westwood?