AnotherOD

I tend to look at it like this. Forget "five stars" and "four stars" counts and let's just say between the states of Oregon, California, Idaho, Arizona, and Washington there are just 12 kids everybody wants. Do we want Oregon, USC, and UW to all be pretty good and have 4 go to Oregon, 4 to USC, and 4 to the UW? Or do we want those other programs to be on a bit of a slide and have 9 go to Oregon, 2 to USC, and 1 to the UW? I like the idea of 9.

I'm a Duck fan just waiting to see Stewart being used. I took a look and the NYT stats suggest Stewart is #2 in targets behind only Tez. I have no reason to suggest it's wrong and I'd further suggest it is probably on point. It's just, when we actually get an endnzone view, it really, really looks like Stewart is pulling away from his man. The check down, in this instance probably is pushed by the staff. No one really to blame unless it's on the OL, for not holding for another half a second, where the OC might approve a different decision. I'm just wondering, Oregon may have a guy in Dante Moore which may may take those shots and light up the board and will Lanning and Stein let him? I'm a huge fan of Gabriel and want to see where it goes; but, I think Moore may be the one guy ... So far, I'd put Gabriel more in the line of Nix and Brown than in with Herbert or Adams. When I look at those guys, despite where one might fall on the outcome, Herbert and Adams were big play game changing guys when they saw it, rather than what we mostly are seeing now... Not bad but not not necessarily game changing.

Never really understood those who pulled for USC and the UW to improve. Is the argument: if Oregon isn't so good, maybe they look better if other conference teams are good? Oregon won all its games and made the national championship. I want Oregon to do well and things always work themselves out if you win your games. The main thing I can see the UW and USC being better means, is they get a greater share of the better players, which makes it harder for Oregon to win all its games. It is more difficult to get the best recruits (especially West Coast kids) to Oregon so Oregon isn't as good, and it now must beat competition that has more good players. Oregon need 4 more points in 2011 and 4 more points in 2012 and probably would have made the National Championship game. That would have been 3 trips in a row. If USC and the UW each were good enough to attract 2-3 top target recruits Oregon really wanted, who instead went elsewhere because those programs were on the upswing, those top target recruits in a Duck uniform aren't enough for 4 more points? Talent wins games. When USC and the UW are down, it helps Oregon look like the place for kids, especially West Coast kids, to go if they want a shot at being in the National Championship mix (and all that goes along with that). My thought has always been: Having as much talent as possible >> getting some kind of "bump" in perception when you are losing games due to other teams being slightly more well thought of. You say beating them if they are better helps? Well, Oregon went to the National Championship in 2010 by winning all its games. Stanford was the only win on its schedule that was better than 8-5. Stanford had a great run for sure, however, when Oregon beat them their prior four seasons were 1-11, 4-8, 5-7, and 8-5. They really were not yet viewed as a "top tier" sort of opponent nationally. 8 of its 12 wins were 0.500 or worse. Didn't matter. Win the games. Pile up the talent. Having the most of the best players is a time tested recipe for college football success. USC or UW being good makes that more difficult.

(Where is the sarcasm font?) Who would have thought, all it took to turn around two decades of struggles for Miami was getting last year's fifth best QB and third best RB from two teams that finished a combined 13-12 in that incapable old Pac-12?

I would agree and has been part of, and to some degree, shaped the outcome of college football for as long as I've been watching (1992). I'll further suggest the Pac-12's lack of following along with this standard operating procedure (after the Pete Carroll USC run), may have played a roll in the ultimate demise of the conference. The top teams in the SEC, Big10, and Big12, teams routinely in the NC hunt and at the top of the polls, I'd argue get a degree of "benefit of the doubt" or "protection with the whistles" to keep them in their spots, especially at home and in tight games. Not going anywhere near suggesting a "fix", just if you were going to beat an Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, especially at their place, you better really beat them, and not expect to get anything close to a 50/50 split with the calls as a factor in pulling out a close game. You had to win without the whistles (so you better not leave it close enough to need to be decided by them). In 2012, Oregon has ridden several years of success to perhaps it's best team yet, 10-0 and #2 in the polls, two games away from a spot in the National Championship game against a Notre Dame team that many, many people felt Oregon would handle as Alabama did. Oregon is beating Stanford late in the game 14-7 and Stanford TE Zac Ertz goes up for a jump ball in the corner of the end zone blanketed by a Duck defender, who forces a clear bobble of the football into the air which Ertz comes down with on top of a Duck defender, pulls in and rolls over on the defender with his shoulder, the first part of his body to touch down, landing on the white out-of-bounds line. He is ruled out of bounds. No clear evidence the call was wrong. Oregon ranked #2 and heading to a National Championship game, if was Alabama in the SEC, Ohio State in the B10, or Oklahoma in the B12 playing at home likely get a quick review and the play stands as called. What does the Pac-12 do? Its replay official decides to re-officiate the whole play himself from the booth and Stanford is given a TD forcing OT, where Oregon is knocked out of the National Championship game. The Pac-12 goes on for the next decade mostly being an afterthought by most of the college football when it came to the BCS/Playoff conversation. Does the Pac-12 have that same lackluster perception if instead it wins the 2013 BCS National Championship? I would think it would have helped. Not even mentioning on the key 4th and 1 from the Duck 11 with 2:17 seconds where the officials swallow the whistle when the right side of the Stanford OL jumps early (that Herbstreit and Musburger both mention in the broadcast) that would have made that 4th and 1 a 4th and 6 instead of a first down. Shoot, the 2021 Oregon team, which didn't turn out to be so great, did start 4-0 and beat #3 Ohio State on the road to climb to #3 in the nation themselves, got hosed on about 3 calls (two personal fouls and a horrible defensive holding) which allowed eventual 3-9 Stanford to improbably drive from their own 4 yard line with 1:44 left the length of the field for a game tying TD with 0:01 on the clock, which led to an Oregon loss in OT. Watching the last 1:44 of the game you would have thought the conference actively wanted all of its teams out of National Championship contention by the first week of October.

Oklahoma sitting at 3 points and 93 yards of total offense with 4 minutes left in the 3rd.

"Tennessee is taking it to OU in Norman" Some interesting thoughts from fans about Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold. OU reportedly encourage DG to find a new home, at least in part, to five star Arnold's not willing to sit a second year (and keep happy): "Alright guys time to quit messing around and put in our Heisman caliber QBs" "Jackson Arnold is the worst qb I’ve ever seen touch a football and I just watched Payton Thorne and Hank Brown play" "Bench Arnold" "Who's the next QB on the depth chart? Arnold ain't it" "Arnold shouldn’t see the field until next week." "Saying JA is in way over his head is like saying 9/11 was a tragedy" "I think when Arnold gets over to the OU bench, all the OU players and coaches should come over, circle around him and just spit on him like a medieval witch ceremony" "Arnold better not start the second half" "That may have been it for JA" "We 100% lose with Arnold. We need to see Hawkins to have a chance." "Seriously who ever is keeping Arnold in the game needs to sit down off of the headset for a bit." Young QB, early in his career most likely eventually figures it out; but, sounds a bit like they are missing DG tonight. Just checked back at the start of the second half, and indeed the backup QB is in the game.

Who are currently the highest ranked G5 teams right now? Boise State, Liberty, Appalachian State, Tulane? If Boise State ends up getting that G5 spot, this is a win against a playoff team, I'm just saying... Idaho beat Wyoming, at Wyoming, 17-13, holding Wyoming to 270 yards of total offense, just saying ... Narrowly resisted the temptation to buy a month of Peacock and found a way to watch the game anyway, so this new, greedy college football tv set-up, wasn't able to hold me hostage and get that $8 for a month of Peacock I otherwise did not want, so there is that too ...

Interesting angle that hadn't really occurred to me regarding the outcome of the game. Jabbar Muhammad, who experienced fall camps at Oklahoma State and Washington prior to Oregon, answered an Athlon reporter's question about Oregon's fall camp this way: "One thing I wanted to get better at was my physicality and you have no choice but to do that here, so it was a perfect match for me." When further asked about the difference in environments between Oregon and his other stops he said: "It's way different, you are hitting and rat-a-tat-tatting every single day, so it's much different. It's a tough schedule. It's legit all day. I know you see the Tik-Toks and everything, but our camp is really all day. It's lenient in some other programs, but this one is kinda tough."

Erik Skopil from DuckTerritory reported Bedford was in full uniform and participated in warm-ups (despite not ultimately playing), so there is that. Lots of late camp OL shuffling and a guy in his first career start and a guy in his second career start. I know, I know, different team different times but I recall a near panic in 2009 after a poor performance by the Duck OL in a 19-8 opening season loss to Boise State. Further recall it took a few games to get it together. Thran, York, Holmes, Asper, Kaiser, not an NFL guy in the bunch, but helped take a team to the Rose Bowl. Not to suggest some serious concerns about the OL in regards to playoff contention aren't fair. If the Ducks don't blow the second game to UW, they make the 4 team playoff with 3/5 of this returning OL. I have to see a couple more games (but I do appreciate somebody willing to call their shot).

Yes, the article mentions Stein throwing deep 8 times a game at UTSA (I think most Duck fans liked hearing that kind of talk). Read in a post-game discussion someone (who said they charted the game) that Oregon attempted just one pass that traveled 20+ yards through the air. PFF's premium stats for Nix showed his average depth of target (post bowl game) last year was 6.9 yards. That number was near the bottom among starting FBS QBs, ahead of I guess only 2 regular starters (one being Clemson's Klubnik). 67 percent of his total passes on the year were behind the LOS or 9 yards or less. Nix's 6.9 yard ADOT compares to: Milroe 13.9, Penix 11.3, Maye 11.0, Daniels 10.5, Williams 9.2, Beck 8.5, Sanders 8.5, and Ewers 8.5. Bo actually did very well on throws of 10+ yards, just relatively there were not a lot of them. PFF awarded Bo 18 "big time throws" last season which are something like well placed completions thrown into a tight window further down field (which is about 1.3 per game). To compare that ADOT of 6.9 to his Auburn seasons his averages were 9.4, 8.4, and 9.0. Absolutely not trying to get into a Bo Nix debate, he was great. Also not trying to be the one to make the "check down syndrome" argument. Only recognizing it seems to be out there. Might we be seeing offensively largely what is being designed? * I guess I should add (which I guess would be) operating in the high percentage range of taking the easy money throws, not putting the ball at risk, getting the ball out to playmakers on the edge and to the RBs and TEs and let them do the work, paired with a productive powerish run game. Maybe there just isn't a design to push the ball down field with the pass beyond a few well timed shots? I am beginning to think maybe I have been expecting to see an offensive adjustment to some of our opponent's defense that isn't a part of the current core philosophy? *

The question already does seem to be out there, "Does Will Stein's offense lead to chronic check down syndrome?"

Lots to work on for sure. I appear to be pretty alone on the island that it wasn't great, but wasn't that bad. 487 yards to 217 yards 31 first downs to 10 first downs Didn't really like the 3rd quarter choice to go for it on 4th down at their own 36. I understand DL probably was having a "let's take control of this game and get a yard" moment; but, up 14-0 stay patient and punt the ball away. Idaho hadn't showed the ability to drive the length of the field all game. No reason to really risk it there? Something crazy happens like your RB tripping on one of his own guys, Idaho unnecessarily grabs momentum, calls a nice trick play, one play, 36 yards and bam, it's a game again. Concerns? Certainly. 37 rushes for 2.9 ypc 3 sacks and 1 forced fumble allowed Really wonder about where the OL is at. Jackson-Powers was the inside mauler and didn't see the same push from the interior, the Bedford injury, and the late camp shuffle on the OL, maybe led to an uncharacteristically poor night? I think (well hope) the OTs will be fine but worry about the interior. I'm not sure what exactly this offense looks like if the Ducks aren't going to be able to run the ball much better. Also some hard to describe not finishing drives. I'd have to rewatch but there was a lot of: good play, bad play, good play, good play, bad play, bad play. Also if Oregon is gonna have a season, they are going to need to be a bit more explosive. I think there were only 7 plays over 15 yards and only one over 20. Of the 7, 4 were to TEs and RB (from a casual look at the box score). Idaho seemed to have a lot of defenders around the LOS, a lot of check down and guys making a few plays otherwise didn't seem like there was much attack the heavy box. Better team will likely blueprint that until the offense makes them pay. Maybe this was a game where they didn't want DG to run; but, I think you are going to see at least the threat of the QB taking off (Gabriel has shown the ability). That one play late showed DG step up and a huge running lane open up and he instead forces a pass. There had to be 10-12 untouched yards open to him.

Tulane beats SE Louisiana 52-0. TT goes 2-4 passing for 17 yards and rushes 4 times for 23 yards and two TDs. Looks like TT got some 2nd half run but didn't throw the ball much (Tulane only attempted 17 passes all game, 8 in the first half and 9 in the second half). Former Oklahoma and former USC WR Mario Williams had 4 catches for 124 yards in his first game for Tulane.

For fun, how about Oregon beats Ohio State in the regular season, beats them in the Conference Championship, and then Ohio State still makes the playoffs with two losses; and ... Oregon and Ohio State make it to the final and Ohio State wins? How does anyone feel especially good crowning Ohio State national champion as they still are 1-2 against Oregon and have 2 losses while Oregon is 2-1 against Ohio State and finishes with only 1 loss? The obvious answer is the bracket gets cooked so Oregon and Ohio State don't meet in the final ... Which just about guarantees a third match-up in the same year, games 2 and 3 being played very close together.

In other (possibly tangentially related) recruiting news, did anyone else catch this little bit of news this week: "The University of Miami has certainly taken advantage of the NIL era, and rightfully so, but it appears they might need a new mega-booster going forward to continue that trend. Once claimed to be the Hurricanes' "NIL King", there is "substantial doubt" that John Ruiz's LifeWallet company can remain in business after the large-scale claims company made $7.7 million in revenue last year but suffered a net loss of $211 million in 2023, according to an SEC filing." I believe the company was valued at over $20 billion as little as about 2.5 years ago (and were expected to reach close to $1 billion in revenue in 2023 and have realized less than $10 million of that). Ultimately, Miami may be required to pivot a bit but likely would find its way forward; but, wonder if Mario's seat gets any warmer as I believe Ruiz was considered instrumental in a small group of Miami boosters who pushed to bring him in? With skill talent the likes of Ward, Martinez, and Restrepro, what most lists appear to be top 10 ranked OLs and DLs, and a reasonable appearing schedule (no Clemson, FSU at home), this should be a year, if Mario's going to get one, to silence some of his detractors? In recent years obviously the Oregon staff has been active in Florida; but, I believe OL Gernorris Wilson (Lakeland) is Oregon's only current recruit from Florida (Traeshon Holden is from Kissimmee but was more via an Alabama transfer). (I think Oregon has two Florida commits for 2025, so there is that to consider as well)

And you maybe a tiny bit wonder? The kid committed to Oregon on April 17, and Dakorien Moore commits on July 4th (national #3, WR #1)? With Dallas Wilson also on board (nationally #40, WR #8), if the WR room isn't looking slightly crowded? I know top kids don't always worry too much about such things, especially when talking about the Georgia's, Alabama's, and Ohio State's of the world, but, there are only so many spots open, and it's not crazy to consider the climb, if you feel those other guys are good as well. In my personal calculus, it makes some sense. From most all reports, 2024 #1 WR Jeremiah Smith is tearing it up early on at tOSU, not crazy to suggest he may be locking a spot down for 3-4 years. tOSU, often called "WR U" has commits from WR #12 (#90 nationally) and WR #28 (#228 nationally so far). Not exactly a "lock" but possibly arguably kids in the top 10 at WR do consider such things? I see Monzee rated by 247 currently as #27 WR and #227 nationally. It may be nothing but the last time tOSU's highest rated WR commit (#14 WR, #140 nationally) was outside the top 10 at WR? I believe was around 2015.

It's interesting. Franklin had just about the best season Duck fans who go back that far have seen in 40 years, at least back until the late 1980s ( and that includes a lot of guys like Patrick Johnson, Demetrius Williams, Kennan Howry, and Josh Huff). Stewart on paper is expected to be at least matching Franklin, if not, even in a solid season, perhaps even better. Whoa. I'll admit, I may have had a couple Kool-Aids but wow. The sky appears to be the limit and I'm as of yet not willing to bet against Lanning, Stein, and Gabriel. Stewart is a name to watch.

Well, it appears the current #2 RB in the country (Tradarian Ball) for 2026 (Texarkana, TX) just committed. Long way to signing day but that's now two commits and two top 50 kids. (247 Composite) Tony Cumberland: #3 DL #38 overall Tradarian Bell: #2 RB #33 overall

Enjoyed this one (Burnt Orange/TXFF): "Sark lets these kids sort themselves out based on their personal priorities. If it's all about NIL, he's ok with letting them go so he can maintain his culture that's about education, development, and winning. In the long run, Sark's kids will be more stable and more coachable and less likely to hit the portal when someone else flashes a shiny object at them. He knows exactly what he's doing and I'm good with it." Sark really must have figured something out the rest of college football coaches haven't ever considered: winning, development, and education. Whoa! Guy needs to do some coaching clinics and share these crazy ideas with the rest of college football!

I would guess there will be more than a few of us Duck fans who will keep an eye out on how Ty does at Tulane, probably for a number of different reasons, but one at least being what this next chapter contributes to the long Ty Thompson debate. Both TT and Horton are three years into their career, Horton with 124 career passing attempts (52%, 6 TDs, 5 Ints, 118.4 rating) and TT 66 career passing attempts (64%, 6 TDs, 4 Ints, 140 rating). So, neither very much on the field play to this point. I don't know a thing about Tulane football other than reading a few bits here and there, it just seems like there has to be a lot of momentum towards Ty getting the spot. According to 247, Tulane's only gotten 3 four star recruits in program history. This fall they are bringing in 3 offensive former 4 star transfers (247 rankings) which would probably seem like a big step to fans: Thompson (#81 nationally #9 QB - from Oregon), Shazz Preston (#120 nationally #20 WR - from Alabama), and Mario Williams (#122 nationally #15 WR - from Oklahoma/USC). Former near 5 star transfers QB throwing to former Alabama and Oklahoma receiver (that sort of thing). This spring Tulane went offense versus defense and I guess the highlights were last year's #2 QB (Horton) throwing a 79 yard and 50 yard pair of TDs to a third WR transfer Dontae Flemming (Louisiana). Interesting but from the local paper (WGNO): "Head coach Jon Sumrall said Horton got better this spring, taking care of the football. "He (Horton) really got better in last week and a half, about really the five practices, of playing within the structure of the offense and playing within the confines of the system,” said Tulane head football coach Jon Sumrall. Sumrall said his advice to Oregon transfer Ty Thompson was to just relax and play, and Thompson, both throwing and running had his moments in the spring game. So did redshirt freshman, Darian Mensah from California. "Mensah is going to be a dude, he’s got a lot to learn,” said Sumrall ... There will not be a started named anytime real soon,” Said Sumrall. Sumrall said previously that Tulane’s ongoing quarterback competition is a three-man race. One that will be decided in the fall."

When I read those comments about Oregon/USC and "developing" players, I immediately think about two recent highly rated edge rushers from the state of California. In 2019, Kayvon Thibodeaux was the #1 player in the state of California and the #2 overall WDE. Came to Oregon and was Pac-12 Freshman defensive player of the year, won the Morris Trophy as a sophomore, and was a unanimous All-American as a junior. He went #5 in the first round, signed a 4 year $32 million dollar contract, and was a PFWA Rookie 1st-team. He followed that up with 11.5 sacks last year. In 2021, Korey Foreman was the #1 player in the state of California and the #2 overall Edge. Went to USC where he spent his first two years as primarily a backup (11 and 13 tackles) and decided after 3 games into his third year to redshirt and now will be continuing his career at Fresno State. I guess the comment mentions "at his position" well, Oregon DBs either drafted or otherwise having NFL careers over about the last 15 years: Jairus Byrd Patrick Chung Walter Thurmond III TJ Ward John Boyett Terrance Mitchell Troy Hill Ifo Ekpre-Olomu Ugo Amadi Thomas Graham Brady Breeze Deommodore Lenoir Jevon Holland Verone McKinley Christian Gonzalez Evan Williams Included in this group are an 11 year career with three Super Bowl wins (Chung), a 9 year career with 3 Pro Bowls (Byrd), an 8 year career with a Super Bowl (Ward), a 6 year career with a Super Bowl (Thurmond III), an 8 year career (Mitchell), an 8 year career (Hill), and several guys still playing including Amadi (6 years), Holland (40 starts), Lenoir (28 starts), and a rookie last year picked #17 in the 1st round (Gonzalez).

Interestingly enough, word around Tulane was that Ty probably left spring practice for their open QB spot in the #2 slot behind Tulane's 2023 back-up Kai Horton (slightly ahead of the young QB in the program Darian Mensah). Now, it sounded like the QB competition will continue into fall camp, with Ty not being way behind (more that if Tulane had to name a starter for game one out of spring camp, it would probably be Horton).

I think I read the current college football playoff contract expires after 2024 and 2025: 2024-2025: Quarterfinals: Fiesta (Phoenix), Peach (Atlanta), Rose (LA), Sugar (New Orleans) Semifinals: Orange (Miami), Cotton (Dallas) Final: Mercedes-Benz (Atlanta) 2025-2026: Quarterfinals: Cotton (Dallas), Orange (Miami), Rose (LA), Sugar (New Orleans) Semifinals: Fiesta (Phoenix), Peach (Atlanta) Finals: Hard Rock (Miami) After that, the whole thing is to be renegotiated. Many minor bowl games have contracts up after 2025-2026 as well. It will be interesting if after 2025 locations such as SoFi (LA), Allegiant (Las Vegas), Lucas Oil (Indianapolis), or even Levi (SF) attempt to break into the rotation, not just for the final but also for playoff games (Action Network reported Allegiant is thought to be the heavy favorite for 2026-2027 Championship game already). With college football trending toward "NFL-light", I wonder if college football will be able to ignore these destinations ready made with the stadiums, infrastructure, flights, hotel, weather and entertainment, and people all in place (not to mention the dollars). Just adding SoFi, Allegiant, and Lucas Oil would certainly help level the (playoff) geographic playing field for Oregon. On the less favorable front, both NRG Stadium (Houston) and Raymond James Stadium (Tampa) have also been mentioned as sites of possible future interest to college football playoff execs (though they conflict more closely with established sites in Dallas and Miami). All that said, I don't think anyone at the top of college football is overly concerned if Oregon has to play all its playoff games in Miami, Atlanta, New Orleans, or Dallas (or even Tampa or Houston). It will be the dollars that ultimately help level the playing field (not much of a real concern over travel fairness).

What is a small class anymore? I'd guess a class of at least 24-25. A look at a post spring two-deep shows 23 seniors (Holden, Johnson, Harper, Bedford, Cornelius, Ferguson, Gabriel, Burch, Caldwell, Harmon, Bassa, Jacobs, Muhammad, Alexander, Tysheem J., Brandon J., Savage, Manning, Reed, Ware-Hudson, Herbert, Strother, Silva) plus Soelle (unless he is on a NIL deal) and Boettcher (who has to be on football scholarship if he returns and is still listed post spring on the GoDucks roster). In addition, one spot that just has to be considered uncertain due to legal concerns. There have to be at least 3 more guys who, with expected big seasons, could test the NFL waters in Conerly, Stewart, and James. Given the huge number of seniors expected to start this fall, one might expect the Duck staff to be working the portal pretty heavily for 2025 (and possibly holding extra spots open); but, that isn't necessarily required as transfers in can always be balanced with transfers out. I guess one could suggest among the young guys, there isn't a ton the staff isn't going to try and hang onto; but, I'd probably argue it is equally hard to say no and stop at 18 or 19 recruits when there are 5-6 more blue-chippers ready to sign (a good problem to have for sure).