AnotherOD

I point I don't see discussed too much, it appears through cable packages A LOT of people who aren't college football (or even really big sports) fans and still pushing in a portion of their monthly bill that ends up at places like ESPN. Like, all the people with cable in NYC likely are throwing in a fee for the B12 Network; and, likely a lot of them would likely opt out if given a choice by their cable If cable eventually disappears, what impact do these "lost" dollars mean to the ever growing college football bottom line?

Interesting to run into this morsel of info, as just the other day I did a (short) internet dive into this topic when I saw somewhere UCF was reported to have 70,000 on campus in-person students. Holy cow, 70,000 students attending on campus and in-person? I didn't see any 2024 numbers (but the list I saw was 2023 US Department of Education 21-day enrollment figures based on the "Common Data Set Program"): 1. Texas A&M 74.8 2. UCF 68.4 3. Rutgers 67.6 4. Florida 61.1 5. tOSU 60.5 6. ASU 57.6 7. Illinois 56.6 8. Florida Int. 55.7 9. Minnesota 55.0 10. Texas 52.4 UW was just behind at 52.3. I didn't realize it was so big either, nearly top ten. The UO? 23.2. UCF seemed crazy big then I saw Indira Gandhi National University (New Delhi) reporting an enrollment of 7,140,000 (and it was time to step away from digging).

Saw this out there on the WildWestSports Football board, for what it is worth (from Ohio State guy):

Absolutely agree. The need to launch an app, find your program, and launch it, makes jumping around much, much more difficult. I think that jumping around actually is a "thing" for college football fans, and it will continue, except WITHOUT a lot of jumping into an app, back to linear TV, back to the app, etc. Mostly it will be in between linear programming games. And I have to simply wonder, if streaming is the thing, why isn't everyone else jumping in at this time? A game here and there (like I guess UW and MSU on Peacock)? Sure. Most to potentially nearly all your games? Doesn't seem to interest the SEC, Big 12, Big 10, ACC, etc. Maybe I'm missing something? We are supposed to believe on one hand they need to be applauded for their lucrative media contracts; but, then to need to be criticized for not being heavily streaming? Seems off.

If it is 20 million AND mostly streaming? Ugh.

Isn't the list just Power 5 teams listed in order of the record their 2023 opponents had in 2022? I don't think it is a particularly good method to do this; but, it's hard to get on PFF, they are just doing the math and putting up a list, not expressing an opinion. I haven't done the math; and, I would say it's pretty silly not to list the winning percentages of the future opponents, if that is what your list is based on. But, I imagine Oregon makes the list because Portland State only won 4, Hawaii only won 3, Stanford only won 3, Cal only won 4, Arizona State only won 3, and Colorado only won 1, that's seems to be all.

I'm optimistic as well; but, wow is it likely the Ducks will be breaking in a lot of new players this season? On paper, it could be argued, the Ducks might be expected to only return 11 starters (6 offense/5 defense). Now there are a bunch of new guys who either transfer in with plenty of talent/experience or were young last year and should be expected to be even better this year. Many names like: Tez Johnson, Holden, Bryant Jr., Conerly, Powers-Johnson, Angilau, Cornelius, Strother, Popo (injury), Burch, Jacobs, Soelle, Tysheem Johnson, Khyree Jackson, Evan Williams, Nikko Reed, Florence, Uiagalelei and others. All of which probably could be argued push to start or at least be penciled in to have a big role this year, and that's a pretty big list of names. How fast does it come together; and, do all the new pieces being added bite the team at least once in the first 7-8 games of the year before they settle in? If the OL comes together, Nix stays healthy, and Stein continues his ascension as a play caller and OC (Dave Bartoo of College Football Matrix had him as a top 5 first year OC at UTSA last year), it's hard to not see a top 20 offense (very possibly better). Bartoo points to a possible Nix Effect with Dillingham last season (not having a top 50 offense the previous two years at FSU then having a huge first year at Oregon, Stein very well may have a similar second season at Oregon with a talented and healthy veteran QB to plan around). On defense, no where to go but up? While a few of the advanced statistics aren't absolutely horrible, simply hard to suggest much past the simple "eyeball test" (and it seemed to me some of the much discussed late game choices to "go for it" on offense could be argued were less about the young staff gambling and more just about a lack of confidence in the other side of the ball). I like the additions on all three levels on defense and while it is always not good to not read too much into the spring game, it was encouraging. With hopefully a bump going from year one to year two with the new defensive staff, I would have to think anything much higher than 50 would be a bit disappointing.

Shough has had his share of injuries since arriving at TT (not counting one game he was knocked out very, very early) has only played in 10 of 26 possible TT games in 2021 and 2022. While it seems like he has been around college football forever, he has only attempted 10 or more passes in a game in his college career 16 times (for comparison Nix in the same number of career seasons has done it 47 times). Of those 10 games, only 2 have been starts against power 5 opponents that finished the season with a winning record, and in those games had NCAA passing efficiency ratings were 78.9 and 117.0 (1-1). While likely the default starter at TT, and while having overall a good winning percentage in games he has started and played significant snaps in (8-2), he really hasn't "wowed" too many TT fans over the last two years (if checking out fans opinions in a couple TT forums is a fair representation). He's a guy who brought a lot of optimism with him to TT, who seems to generally been the QB who just has been a tiny bit better on paper and gotten the nod. TT fans appear to be somewhat split on how much the injuries should be weighted in their QB debates. On paper, Oregon would have to appear to have a pretty big advantage at QB. One little bit I found interesting was that TS in his one starting season at Oregon (COVID year) was pretty solid with his legs, in 7 games rushing 66 times for 271 yards. In his first 7 games at TT, he rushed 28 times for 19 yards. However, in his last 4 games where TT went 4-0, he (again) rushed 60 times for 264 yards (maybe his game opens up a bit when allowed more opportunities to run, rather than sit in the pocket?) Might be something to keep an eye on?

Should we look at this as there may be some concern about the (projected) health of the kid from Texas? Is that off base? Absolutely excited when he joined the UO and was disappointed to read he mostly was on the shelf (due to injury) this spring. Interesting to see if the staff had maybe 3 rides leaving spring they appear to have gone CB, OG, and WR. Jones, Harper, and Angilau already appeared on paper to be 3 starters for two spots with the 3rd guy being rotational. Looking to a potential 4th guy with the remaining spots? Interesting? Jones maybe though to perhaps be penciled in to play some OT this year?

Even though it was only since 2020, I count only 17 players remaining on the team who played with Shough -- and of course no Mario or his coaching staff. I could be wrong but I wonder if a lot of the water behind a "revenge game" has went under the bridge? I imagine it will be a big game for TS; but, more because it would be a huge win for their program early in their season. Maybe I'm wrong but I'd guess TS would more like circle Miami (Mario) or possibly Akron (Moorhead) than Oregon? Steve Stevens Dontae Manning Trikweze Bridges Kris Huston Jamal Hill JJ Greenfield Bryan Addison Mase Funa Steven Jones Camden Lewis Popo Aumavae Marcus Harper Patrick Herbert Jake Shipley Keyon Ware-Hudson Brandon Dorlus Josh Delgado

"The last great Duck receiver to go on to a solid pro career?" JJ Burden ? 1990-1996? 7 seasons. 93 games. 62 games started. 244 catches for 3,341 yards and 17 TDs for Kansas City and Atlanta? Best year: (1993) 51 catches for 721 yards (14.1) and 2 TDs. Patrick Johnson? 70 games. 23 games started. 7 seasons. 84 catches for 1,286 yards and 10 TDs for Baltimore, JAX, and Washington? Best year (1999) 29 catches for 526 yards (18.1) and 3 TDs? It's been a pretty long 40 years since Ahmad Rashad. Has to be the least productive spot coming out of Oregon for several decades. With guys like Franklin and Dickey? I think the "law of averages" might finally be coming around.

Slight correction might be: Carrington actually spent five years in college. Redshirted in 2013 then played 3 seasons at Oregon (playing in 29 games and catching 112 passes for 1919 yards and 15 TDs) before getting dismissed from the team by Taggert after (famously) getting a DUI after smashing into a pole at a McDonalds drive through at 3 am. If memory serves, it was sort of viewed as a "third strike" sort of deal, rather than getting run for one incident (however to some degree it may also have been influenced by Taggert's early calls to restore more discipline to the program after MH's departure). Carrington went on to catch 70 passes for 980 yards and 6 TDs for Utah, before signing an unrestricted FA contract with Dallas (got cut towards the end of camp and signed with the Canadian Football League -- but can find any evidence of him catching any passes up there). I think he is scheduled to play his third season of indoor football this year for the Massachusetts Pirates (but don't quote me on that one). It ended up being sort of unfortunate as the Duck offense spent most of the 2017 season a bit inexperienced at WR beyond senior Charles Nelson (relying upon three youngsters in Dillon Mitchell, Johnny Johnson lll, and Brendon Schooler).

I have wondered if the new portal rules might benefit Oregon in a way not often mentioned (at least as I have seen). Before, if a recruit loved Oregon, but it was deemed "too far away" (often for family), the old transfer rules made returning home a more difficult decision. Now, with one essentially free transfer, a recruit could try Oregon and if it doesn't "fit" can return closer to home without the same year penalty. It would seem, if a recruit LOVES Oregon, but the rest of the family isn't sure, one free transfer sort of makes letting the kid give it a shot a bit easier to decide, or no?

I can see what KD at ASU is seeing - but man does this recruit have "coach killer" written all over him? Overall? Have a positive feeling about KD and hope he gets far away from this mess as possible. I understand for a young coach it has to be tempting. I guess I may be wrong but yeah .........

One thing about the "star system" appears to be -- you best get high up into the rankings -- prior to your senior year. I'm sure somebody knows the stories here better than I do; but, didn't Herbert famously break a leg as a junior then ignored all the camps and 7-on-7s before his senior year? Didn't MM sit behind another kid who was an FBS level prospect himself until taking over as a senior? It does appear, if you aren't a top 300 kid prior to kicking off your senior season it just is not very easy to climb that deeply into the top 300 (especially if you aren't playing at Mater Dei, Westlake, Lakeland, or IMG). A great senior year is a mover; but, it likely remains a bigger mover for college coaches than ranking dudes (start as a sophomore at St. John's Bosco? You probably are top 400 and probably top 200 before your junior year, play in Oregon, or Idaho, or outside the Phoenix area in Arizona? Don't count on it - and moving and advancing 40-50 spots might not be so hard but jumping 250-300 spots? A different story). JH and MM appear to more be cases of kids not playing the camp/7-on-7 circuit (for the network rating analysis) and not getting huge attention prior to their senior year, rather than somewhat crazy recruiting stories of somebody coming from nowhere and excelling. Somebody correct that if it is in error.

A bit from Arizona Sports: "Soelle, the brother of graduating leading tackler Kyle, had 30 tackles and one pass defensed in a limited defensive role this year, mainly contributing on special teams. Dillingham has done well in acquiring talent at linebacker, putting Soelle in a difficult position to expect legitimate playing time for 2023. Krew Jackson (Kansas State), Tate Romney (BYU) and Travion Brown (Washington State) are all Tempe bound."

Didn't see this one posted, from Sports Illustrated's "2023 NFL Draft Risers and Fallers" (12/12/22): "Going into this season, Sewell was considered the top inside linebacker prospect after a 100-tackle season in 2021. Still, in retrospect, he was judged off of one season, and he never proved he deserved the high ranking. However, this year was extremely disappointing and a complete dud for him, only getting 55 tackles. Sewell only had that one big season, but he was so impressive his sophomore year that it was no surprise he garnered so much praise. It didn’t seem that Sewell improved any part of his game and maybe took a step back in some areas. He struggles to get off blocks, and opponents knew that because they attacked him in the run game, which derailed his entire season. Sewell also lacks coverage ability, and in today’s NFL, that is huge because most linebackers will be in coverage for a good amount of plays. The drop-off in his play this year was so extreme that it could be very difficult for him to get drafted. It was especially startling because Oregon was still a very talented team, so you would expect to see him pick up where he left off. If Sewell declares for this year’s draft, he will have the huge task of proving to teams that he has the will to be great and is a draftable player. "

Well, ok. I can't help but thinking about a young Patrick Johnson. Ran 10.26 and a 20.39 in a college track and field meet (he also famously beat Carl Lewis Lewis in a 100m race at the Drake Relays). As a high school senior, he led the nation at 100m and 200m for much of his senior year (wiki); and, heading into his college soph season at Oregon was the preseason NCAA favorite at 400m. He famously considered redshirting and sitting out the 1996 football season to prepare for the Olympics. I believe he had some injury trouble that sophomore year and never stepped on the track again. It doesn't change the point this kid has got serious speed; but, had to give Patrick Johnson a mention.

Checked in and it seems Texas fans aren't too upset. I kind of agree the TV guy was a bit more "handsy" than was necessary. And, if Sark was in line for a club, bar, or restaurant in his personal life I could see it -- if that is how he decides he wants to handle the situation. However as a high profile representative of a public university -- while performing his duties in public as people have said the encounter was visible from the stands (and as far as Sark new within camera's eye) -- I think a reasonable to expect coach to dial it back at least a little.

Ugh. As much as I don't want to type it. As much as I dislike typing it. I don't see how the UW isn't the Pac-12 favorite next year. I think they are waiting on one WR, otherwise returning just about everyone of significance and have already added a CB from Oklahoma State (who looks like an impact guy). Included there are their 3 edge rushers who compliment their down field passing offense very well; and, there are plenty of good/returning pieces to a very good pass blocking OL. It's early and we are going to go over this a number of times before the start of the year; but, I would be happy to hear arguments it's not the UW as a pretty clear favorite.

With his injury this season, I think Steven Jones probably returns for 2023? Prior to his injury, I think he started 22-23 straight games for Oregon; and, once he came back from his injury, started the final three. I think he must be someplace in that starting group (and I think actually consistently has graded out very well PFF-style when he has been at guard).

To the same point, I would imagine that some of the guys brought in as "CBs" may eventually fit into safety rolls (especially if you are going to basically playing three safeties all game). I can see as many as 5 safeties among the high school group.

I think that was the consensus among Oregon fans as well. However I think many Duck fans also came to the conclusion Mario may be incapable of doing so, that he is head coach and needs to have his fingerprints all over everything (maybe to the thought he really needs to be heavily involved in order to feel he really is part of the success?). If you check in on a couple of the Miami boards, it is also sort of interesting. They really were all over Mario nearly the whole season. Now, with Miami sitting at #3 in the recruiting rankings, it seems like a large portion of them are already back on board. Something about the magic of those recruiting stars.

From what little I can gather, Mario seems to have at least one, if not a few, wealthy boosters who pushed very hard to get Mario to Miami. After that first season, it appears they don't want to look bad and are willing to throw more $ at it -- rather than see it fail. Guys who have 5, 10, 15 million lying around willing to throw it into Miami football each year. Funny thing is Phil probably has 5, 10, 15 billion in his couch cushions -- I just don't think he is too crazy handing it over to 17 year old high school kids -- and I don't really blame him if that happens to be his stance. Throw some $ into the Duck collective? Sure as that is how the game is being played. $30-$40 million dollar Duck football recruiting classes? I could be completely wrong -- but I will be surprised. My guess is a decent portion of the NIL $ is being focused on key portal guys rather than being the highest bidder for top 20 high school kids. Just a hunch (and if so it seems a solid strategy).

It's kind of the rarely mention topics in recruiting rankings discussions. Oregon State and Utah win with "three stars" and yet as soon as they have a shot with higher ranked players, they chase them like everyone else. Rarely see a sign either program finds a top 250 kid who is interested who they ignore. Not to say there isn't something to finding gems who are willing to work and be developed; and, these staffs may be more willing to chase players seen as "projects" who they feel they can win with; but, Utah fans are loving their two top 170 OL commits (Fano and Lomu) and OSU is loving their two top 300 commits (QB Chiles and DL Howard).