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AnotherOD
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Post Boise State Game Discussion!
Who are currently the highest ranked G5 teams right now? Boise State, Liberty, Appalachian State, Tulane? If Boise State ends up getting that G5 spot, this is a win against a playoff team, I'm just saying... Idaho beat Wyoming, at Wyoming, 17-13, holding Wyoming to 270 yards of total offense, just saying ... Narrowly resisted the temptation to buy a month of Peacock and found a way to watch the game anyway, so this new, greedy college football tv set-up, wasn't able to hold me hostage and get that $8 for a month of Peacock I otherwise did not want, so there is that too ...
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General Thoughts About The Game
Interesting angle that hadn't really occurred to me regarding the outcome of the game. Jabbar Muhammad, who experienced fall camps at Oklahoma State and Washington prior to Oregon, answered an Athlon reporter's question about Oregon's fall camp this way: "One thing I wanted to get better at was my physicality and you have no choice but to do that here, so it was a perfect match for me." When further asked about the difference in environments between Oregon and his other stops he said: "It's way different, you are hitting and rat-a-tat-tatting every single day, so it's much different. It's a tough schedule. It's legit all day. I know you see the Tik-Toks and everything, but our camp is really all day. It's lenient in some other programs, but this one is kinda tough."
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Look at the Bright Side With This Game...
Erik Skopil from DuckTerritory reported Bedford was in full uniform and participated in warm-ups (despite not ultimately playing), so there is that. Lots of late camp OL shuffling and a guy in his first career start and a guy in his second career start. I know, I know, different team different times but I recall a near panic in 2009 after a poor performance by the Duck OL in a 19-8 opening season loss to Boise State. Further recall it took a few games to get it together. Thran, York, Holmes, Asper, Kaiser, not an NFL guy in the bunch, but helped take a team to the Rose Bowl. Not to suggest some serious concerns about the OL in regards to playoff contention aren't fair. If the Ducks don't blow the second game to UW, they make the 4 team playoff with 3/5 of this returning OL. I have to see a couple more games (but I do appreciate somebody willing to call their shot).
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Look at the Bright Side With This Game...
Yes, the article mentions Stein throwing deep 8 times a game at UTSA (I think most Duck fans liked hearing that kind of talk). Read in a post-game discussion someone (who said they charted the game) that Oregon attempted just one pass that traveled 20+ yards through the air. PFF's premium stats for Nix showed his average depth of target (post bowl game) last year was 6.9 yards. That number was near the bottom among starting FBS QBs, ahead of I guess only 2 regular starters (one being Clemson's Klubnik). 67 percent of his total passes on the year were behind the LOS or 9 yards or less. Nix's 6.9 yard ADOT compares to: Milroe 13.9, Penix 11.3, Maye 11.0, Daniels 10.5, Williams 9.2, Beck 8.5, Sanders 8.5, and Ewers 8.5. Bo actually did very well on throws of 10+ yards, just relatively there were not a lot of them. PFF awarded Bo 18 "big time throws" last season which are something like well placed completions thrown into a tight window further down field (which is about 1.3 per game). To compare that ADOT of 6.9 to his Auburn seasons his averages were 9.4, 8.4, and 9.0. Absolutely not trying to get into a Bo Nix debate, he was great. Also not trying to be the one to make the "check down syndrome" argument. Only recognizing it seems to be out there. Might we be seeing offensively largely what is being designed? * I guess I should add (which I guess would be) operating in the high percentage range of taking the easy money throws, not putting the ball at risk, getting the ball out to playmakers on the edge and to the RBs and TEs and let them do the work, paired with a productive powerish run game. Maybe there just isn't a design to push the ball down field with the pass beyond a few well timed shots? I am beginning to think maybe I have been expecting to see an offensive adjustment to some of our opponent's defense that isn't a part of the current core philosophy? *
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Look at the Bright Side With This Game...
The question already does seem to be out there, "Does Will Stein's offense lead to chronic check down syndrome?"
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Look at the Bright Side With This Game...
Lots to work on for sure. I appear to be pretty alone on the island that it wasn't great, but wasn't that bad. 487 yards to 217 yards 31 first downs to 10 first downs Didn't really like the 3rd quarter choice to go for it on 4th down at their own 36. I understand DL probably was having a "let's take control of this game and get a yard" moment; but, up 14-0 stay patient and punt the ball away. Idaho hadn't showed the ability to drive the length of the field all game. No reason to really risk it there? Something crazy happens like your RB tripping on one of his own guys, Idaho unnecessarily grabs momentum, calls a nice trick play, one play, 36 yards and bam, it's a game again. Concerns? Certainly. 37 rushes for 2.9 ypc 3 sacks and 1 forced fumble allowed Really wonder about where the OL is at. Jackson-Powers was the inside mauler and didn't see the same push from the interior, the Bedford injury, and the late camp shuffle on the OL, maybe led to an uncharacteristically poor night? I think (well hope) the OTs will be fine but worry about the interior. I'm not sure what exactly this offense looks like if the Ducks aren't going to be able to run the ball much better. Also some hard to describe not finishing drives. I'd have to rewatch but there was a lot of: good play, bad play, good play, good play, bad play, bad play. Also if Oregon is gonna have a season, they are going to need to be a bit more explosive. I think there were only 7 plays over 15 yards and only one over 20. Of the 7, 4 were to TEs and RB (from a casual look at the box score). Idaho seemed to have a lot of defenders around the LOS, a lot of check down and guys making a few plays otherwise didn't seem like there was much attack the heavy box. Better team will likely blueprint that until the offense makes them pay. Maybe this was a game where they didn't want DG to run; but, I think you are going to see at least the threat of the QB taking off (Gabriel has shown the ability). That one play late showed DG step up and a huge running lane open up and he instead forces a pass. There had to be 10-12 untouched yards open to him.
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Whoops! Ty Thompson...
Tulane beats SE Louisiana 52-0. TT goes 2-4 passing for 17 yards and rushes 4 times for 23 yards and two TDs. Looks like TT got some 2nd half run but didn't throw the ball much (Tulane only attempted 17 passes all game, 8 in the first half and 9 in the second half). Former Oklahoma and former USC WR Mario Williams had 4 catches for 124 yards in his first game for Tulane.
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Oregon Goes UNDEFEATED??
For fun, how about Oregon beats Ohio State in the regular season, beats them in the Conference Championship, and then Ohio State still makes the playoffs with two losses; and ... Oregon and Ohio State make it to the final and Ohio State wins? How does anyone feel especially good crowning Ohio State national champion as they still are 1-2 against Oregon and have 2 losses while Oregon is 2-1 against Ohio State and finishes with only 1 loss? The obvious answer is the bracket gets cooked so Oregon and Ohio State don't meet in the final ... Which just about guarantees a third match-up in the same year, games 2 and 3 being played very close together.
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Oregon's Recruiting Quality is Unheard Of.....
In other (possibly tangentially related) recruiting news, did anyone else catch this little bit of news this week: "The University of Miami has certainly taken advantage of the NIL era, and rightfully so, but it appears they might need a new mega-booster going forward to continue that trend. Once claimed to be the Hurricanes' "NIL King", there is "substantial doubt" that John Ruiz's LifeWallet company can remain in business after the large-scale claims company made $7.7 million in revenue last year but suffered a net loss of $211 million in 2023, according to an SEC filing." I believe the company was valued at over $20 billion as little as about 2.5 years ago (and were expected to reach close to $1 billion in revenue in 2023 and have realized less than $10 million of that). Ultimately, Miami may be required to pivot a bit but likely would find its way forward; but, wonder if Mario's seat gets any warmer as I believe Ruiz was considered instrumental in a small group of Miami boosters who pushed to bring him in? With skill talent the likes of Ward, Martinez, and Restrepro, what most lists appear to be top 10 ranked OLs and DLs, and a reasonable appearing schedule (no Clemson, FSU at home), this should be a year, if Mario's going to get one, to silence some of his detractors? In recent years obviously the Oregon staff has been active in Florida; but, I believe OL Gernorris Wilson (Lakeland) is Oregon's only current recruit from Florida (Traeshon Holden is from Kissimmee but was more via an Alabama transfer). (I think Oregon has two Florida commits for 2025, so there is that to consider as well)
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4-Star Oregon WR Isaiah Mozee Flips Commitment
And you maybe a tiny bit wonder? The kid committed to Oregon on April 17, and Dakorien Moore commits on July 4th (national #3, WR #1)? With Dallas Wilson also on board (nationally #40, WR #8), if the WR room isn't looking slightly crowded? I know top kids don't always worry too much about such things, especially when talking about the Georgia's, Alabama's, and Ohio State's of the world, but, there are only so many spots open, and it's not crazy to consider the climb, if you feel those other guys are good as well. In my personal calculus, it makes some sense. From most all reports, 2024 #1 WR Jeremiah Smith is tearing it up early on at tOSU, not crazy to suggest he may be locking a spot down for 3-4 years. tOSU, often called "WR U" has commits from WR #12 (#90 nationally) and WR #28 (#228 nationally so far). Not exactly a "lock" but possibly arguably kids in the top 10 at WR do consider such things? I see Monzee rated by 247 currently as #27 WR and #227 nationally. It may be nothing but the last time tOSU's highest rated WR commit (#14 WR, #140 nationally) was outside the top 10 at WR? I believe was around 2015.
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Who's Makin Bank, NIL $$$
It's interesting. Franklin had just about the best season Duck fans who go back that far have seen in 40 years, at least back until the late 1980s ( and that includes a lot of guys like Patrick Johnson, Demetrius Williams, Kennan Howry, and Josh Huff). Stewart on paper is expected to be at least matching Franklin, if not, even in a solid season, perhaps even better. Whoa. I'll admit, I may have had a couple Kool-Aids but wow. The sky appears to be the limit and I'm as of yet not willing to bet against Lanning, Stein, and Gabriel. Stewart is a name to watch.
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Why Dan Lanning Will Have a No. 1 Recruiting Class...
Well, it appears the current #2 RB in the country (Tradarian Ball) for 2026 (Texarkana, TX) just committed. Long way to signing day but that's now two commits and two top 50 kids. (247 Composite) Tony Cumberland: #3 DL #38 overall Tradarian Bell: #2 RB #33 overall
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QUAACK! Ducks Land Rivals 5-Star 2025 WR Dakorien Moore
Enjoyed this one (Burnt Orange/TXFF): "Sark lets these kids sort themselves out based on their personal priorities. If it's all about NIL, he's ok with letting them go so he can maintain his culture that's about education, development, and winning. In the long run, Sark's kids will be more stable and more coachable and less likely to hit the portal when someone else flashes a shiny object at them. He knows exactly what he's doing and I'm good with it." Sark really must have figured something out the rest of college football coaches haven't ever considered: winning, development, and education. Whoa! Guy needs to do some coaching clinics and share these crazy ideas with the rest of college football!
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Yikes! Looking at the Success of Rivals 5-Stars at Oregon...
I would guess there will be more than a few of us Duck fans who will keep an eye out on how Ty does at Tulane, probably for a number of different reasons, but one at least being what this next chapter contributes to the long Ty Thompson debate. Both TT and Horton are three years into their career, Horton with 124 career passing attempts (52%, 6 TDs, 5 Ints, 118.4 rating) and TT 66 career passing attempts (64%, 6 TDs, 4 Ints, 140 rating). So, neither very much on the field play to this point. I don't know a thing about Tulane football other than reading a few bits here and there, it just seems like there has to be a lot of momentum towards Ty getting the spot. According to 247, Tulane's only gotten 3 four star recruits in program history. This fall they are bringing in 3 offensive former 4 star transfers (247 rankings) which would probably seem like a big step to fans: Thompson (#81 nationally #9 QB - from Oregon), Shazz Preston (#120 nationally #20 WR - from Alabama), and Mario Williams (#122 nationally #15 WR - from Oklahoma/USC). Former near 5 star transfers QB throwing to former Alabama and Oklahoma receiver (that sort of thing). This spring Tulane went offense versus defense and I guess the highlights were last year's #2 QB (Horton) throwing a 79 yard and 50 yard pair of TDs to a third WR transfer Dontae Flemming (Louisiana). Interesting but from the local paper (WGNO): "Head coach Jon Sumrall said Horton got better this spring, taking care of the football. "He (Horton) really got better in last week and a half, about really the five practices, of playing within the structure of the offense and playing within the confines of the system,” said Tulane head football coach Jon Sumrall. Sumrall said his advice to Oregon transfer Ty Thompson was to just relax and play, and Thompson, both throwing and running had his moments in the spring game. So did redshirt freshman, Darian Mensah from California. "Mensah is going to be a dude, he’s got a lot to learn,” said Sumrall ... There will not be a started named anytime real soon,” Said Sumrall. Sumrall said previously that Tulane’s ongoing quarterback competition is a three-man race. One that will be decided in the fall."
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Ruh-Roh! USC Fans Unhappy With Oregon Recruiting....AGAIN
When I read those comments about Oregon/USC and "developing" players, I immediately think about two recent highly rated edge rushers from the state of California. In 2019, Kayvon Thibodeaux was the #1 player in the state of California and the #2 overall WDE. Came to Oregon and was Pac-12 Freshman defensive player of the year, won the Morris Trophy as a sophomore, and was a unanimous All-American as a junior. He went #5 in the first round, signed a 4 year $32 million dollar contract, and was a PFWA Rookie 1st-team. He followed that up with 11.5 sacks last year. In 2021, Korey Foreman was the #1 player in the state of California and the #2 overall Edge. Went to USC where he spent his first two years as primarily a backup (11 and 13 tackles) and decided after 3 games into his third year to redshirt and now will be continuing his career at Fresno State. I guess the comment mentions "at his position" well, Oregon DBs either drafted or otherwise having NFL careers over about the last 15 years: Jairus Byrd Patrick Chung Walter Thurmond III TJ Ward John Boyett Terrance Mitchell Troy Hill Ifo Ekpre-Olomu Ugo Amadi Thomas Graham Brady Breeze Deommodore Lenoir Jevon Holland Verone McKinley Christian Gonzalez Evan Williams Included in this group are an 11 year career with three Super Bowl wins (Chung), a 9 year career with 3 Pro Bowls (Byrd), an 8 year career with a Super Bowl (Ward), a 6 year career with a Super Bowl (Thurmond III), an 8 year career (Mitchell), an 8 year career (Hill), and several guys still playing including Amadi (6 years), Holland (40 starts), Lenoir (28 starts), and a rookie last year picked #17 in the 1st round (Gonzalez).
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Yikes! Looking at the Success of Rivals 5-Stars at Oregon...
Interestingly enough, word around Tulane was that Ty probably left spring practice for their open QB spot in the #2 slot behind Tulane's 2023 back-up Kai Horton (slightly ahead of the young QB in the program Darian Mensah). Now, it sounded like the QB competition will continue into fall camp, with Ty not being way behind (more that if Tulane had to name a starter for game one out of spring camp, it would probably be Horton).
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2024 Puddles Perilous Playoff Flight Path for Puddles.
I think I read the current college football playoff contract expires after 2024 and 2025: 2024-2025: Quarterfinals: Fiesta (Phoenix), Peach (Atlanta), Rose (LA), Sugar (New Orleans) Semifinals: Orange (Miami), Cotton (Dallas) Final: Mercedes-Benz (Atlanta) 2025-2026: Quarterfinals: Cotton (Dallas), Orange (Miami), Rose (LA), Sugar (New Orleans) Semifinals: Fiesta (Phoenix), Peach (Atlanta) Finals: Hard Rock (Miami) After that, the whole thing is to be renegotiated. Many minor bowl games have contracts up after 2025-2026 as well. It will be interesting if after 2025 locations such as SoFi (LA), Allegiant (Las Vegas), Lucas Oil (Indianapolis), or even Levi (SF) attempt to break into the rotation, not just for the final but also for playoff games (Action Network reported Allegiant is thought to be the heavy favorite for 2026-2027 Championship game already). With college football trending toward "NFL-light", I wonder if college football will be able to ignore these destinations ready made with the stadiums, infrastructure, flights, hotel, weather and entertainment, and people all in place (not to mention the dollars). Just adding SoFi, Allegiant, and Lucas Oil would certainly help level the (playoff) geographic playing field for Oregon. On the less favorable front, both NRG Stadium (Houston) and Raymond James Stadium (Tampa) have also been mentioned as sites of possible future interest to college football playoff execs (though they conflict more closely with established sites in Dallas and Miami). All that said, I don't think anyone at the top of college football is overly concerned if Oregon has to play all its playoff games in Miami, Atlanta, New Orleans, or Dallas (or even Tampa or Houston). It will be the dollars that ultimately help level the playing field (not much of a real concern over travel fairness).
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Stunning Recruiting Info Has Me Shaking My Head Again...
What is a small class anymore? I'd guess a class of at least 24-25. A look at a post spring two-deep shows 23 seniors (Holden, Johnson, Harper, Bedford, Cornelius, Ferguson, Gabriel, Burch, Caldwell, Harmon, Bassa, Jacobs, Muhammad, Alexander, Tysheem J., Brandon J., Savage, Manning, Reed, Ware-Hudson, Herbert, Strother, Silva) plus Soelle (unless he is on a NIL deal) and Boettcher (who has to be on football scholarship if he returns and is still listed post spring on the GoDucks roster). In addition, one spot that just has to be considered uncertain due to legal concerns. There have to be at least 3 more guys who, with expected big seasons, could test the NFL waters in Conerly, Stewart, and James. Given the huge number of seniors expected to start this fall, one might expect the Duck staff to be working the portal pretty heavily for 2025 (and possibly holding extra spots open); but, that isn't necessarily required as transfers in can always be balanced with transfers out. I guess one could suggest among the young guys, there isn't a ton the staff isn't going to try and hang onto; but, I'd probably argue it is equally hard to say no and stop at 18 or 19 recruits when there are 5-6 more blue-chippers ready to sign (a good problem to have for sure).
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Dan Lanning Not Done Yet With the Portal?
Looks like he ended up at Kansas.
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Dan Lanning Not Done Yet With the Portal?
I was thinking a little about this thread and what point exactly I was after? I guess the point was an interesting thought about, who do you trust more, your young guys who haven't shown (much of) anything yet; or, guys who have put a lot on film and deserve that praise, yet, have had an injury to the degree it appears the fans of that program aren't exactly devastated they moved on? And here I mean, not the programs didn't feel bad about the injury and the player ultimately departing; but, rather them accepting it at least in part happened because the injury places the future of the player somewhat in the air. Angilau (I got that right finally) and to a lesser extent Strother both were commits expected to possibly start, if not at least being rotational kind of players. I had at least one of two at least cracking rotation, and both guys essentially were only seen in mop up duty. Neither broke into the rotation and I believe Angilau at least had the chance to patition for another year and has chosen not to. Poncho stepped in instead and played more than a couple of guys with very solid resumes (some of that might have been center but the impression I've gotten is that if the need was at OG, the situation would have played out similarly). What exactly is the line between trusting your young guys and instead bring in a guy to compete with injury questions? Obviously all things being equal both are ok; but, NIL dollars too need to be budgeted (and I have no problem here suggesting those hurt guys need to make their best plays if they are offered). Thoughts? Maybe it was just me wondering?
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Dan Lanning Not Done Yet With the Portal?
Yes, my bad. I should edit that but probably the tread won't make sense if I do. Cornelius has been possibly even better than advertised. I was bit pumped way back when I read about Foster but; the injury situation just called for a bit of a pause. Not the kid's fault getting beat up, just what I've read in regards to the player. I think it's interesting (for those familiar), Duck hardcore fanatic (Hyolyth), while absolutely not down on the kid from Indiana, I believe placed both Angilau and Strother ahead of Bedford in tape review. Once again, interesting.
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Dan Lanning Not Done Yet With the Portal?
Not trying to stir anything up but his situation sounds a lot like Anjani Cornelius, the Transfer to Oregon Texas (not trying to bang on anyone as I've been a bit surprised this hasn't appeared to this point to be discussed here). Texas loved Cornelius prior to his injury and Foster similar at A&M but both appeared to have major injuries and eventually both programs appeared comfortable rolling the dice letting those guys go. Foster could step in at C and a Poncho and the kid from Indiana could compete for that spot at guard; but, the tea leaves suggest both the injuries to Cornelius and Foster represent a different sort of stumbling block. I recall, way back when, Foster having some interest in Oregon and the HC Cristobal considering it a big recruiting priority. Perhaps a positive, Foster, I believe a very good T&F athlete, was able to complete a season at A&M, prior to hitting the portal. His numbers were a bit off but injury did not stop him from competing. I read the new Texas A&M coach, actually didn't renew Foster's scholarship when he decided to focus on track. Interesting!
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Will This Forever Haunt You as an Oregon Fan?
That is the one that stuck with me too rather than the refs. I mean, it was an SEC team, going in I think you expect to lose the battle of the calls (maybe not as bad in key spots but even then I never really expected a balanced game). Just going off memory Auburn was something like 9th nationally against the run (and something like 5th or 6th amongst P5 teams) allowing about 109 ypg at 3.4 ypc. (I did look that up). Against the pass they ranked 109th, allowing 259 ypg (something like 53rd out of about 60 P5 teams). Oregon, not exactly known in 2010 as a pass heavy team, does complete 28 passes for 374 yards and 2 TDs against them. At the time, the layoff between the teams ending the season and the Championship I believe was one, if not the longest in modern college football history. Loved just about everything coach Alliotti did game planning. They trusted their back guys and got after Newton and I will suggest to a debatable degree just beat him up (22-19 being being their second lowest output among their 14 games). On offense? It just appeared Kelly doubled down on running against a very good UA defense intent upon selling out taking away James and Barner. Much was left on DT's legs (which to that point in the year had primarily been a "if you don't respect it I will hurt you" versus "now it's in my lap and I need to ** suddenly ** have the wheels to make an elite run defense pay). I would suggest if asked the UA coaches say they watched tape for a month and were willing to take the gamble. Looked this up too, prior to about 1:40 left in the first half, when Oregon opened up to pressing the UA passing defense, Oregon ran 30 offensive plays. Two picks and an incomplete, so basically 27 other plays. 16 rushes for 32 yards and 5 passes to RBs out of the backfield for about 45. That is 21 out of 27 either rushes or drops to the RBs. Only 6 passes to WR and TEs for about 128 yards. Now, a big chunk of that was a pass to Maehl for 81; but, isn't that why to take shots down field? You target 4-5 and get at least one big play out of 5-6? The offense had another successful target to Tuinei out of those 6 throws for 19 yards. Maybe not so bad. What is possibly hard to put into the calculus is how much the early picks by DT effected play calling. Certainly after about 1:40 left in the first half Oregon went ahead and trusted DT to throw the ball. And from an Auburn perspective why not? They stuffed the run and played hit-or-miss all season with their secondary and were in the National Championship game with a lead. Just perhaps seems like the strategy didn't trust a passing game that, if prepared earlier and a bigger part of the plan, might have changed the dynamic (here read, press them with the pass to then open the run). When watching the second half of that game when it got close -- having a the lead in a game that ends up 22-19 looms perhaps larger than a game that turns into a shootout. Jump on them challenging their 109th rated pass defense against a game plan selling out to stop the run? I don't know. When I think of the game my first recollections are Nick Farely beating us up and taking our lunch money (the UA front four all pretty much had a good season). Was the Ducks best option betting against them when their secondary showed through 13 games that regularly susceptible to giving up plays? (And yes this is over a decade later after the fact backseat analysis so I accept that very valid criticism)
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Oregon Ducks Football: Biggest Position of Need
Not a starting group but biggest position of need? Back-ups on the OL. Extremely good fortune with the injury bug on the OL and really a pretty tight rotation the whole season. Strother came to the UO with a lot of snaps under his belt but never gained much traction, playing 55 snaps last year, almost half of them in the ASU game. I think he might be the first call at either guard position (but didn't hear much buzz tied to Nishad this spring). I guess the backups at LT and RT are Kawika Rogers who played 96 snaps at RT and George Silva 51 snaps at LT. Charlie Pickard probably is one the two deep at center with 68 snaps and 53 at center (the only other non-starting OL name I can really recalling hearing this spring other than Pickard was Lipe Moala). With 14 games (and at least 7 that were pretty comfortable) that's not a lot of guys getting snaps. Stay healthy guys. It will be interesting to see if anyone breaks into the OL rotation. Gonna be a big portal priority next year as it isn't outside the possibility Poncho is the only returning OL starter. Maybe not the time to think about such things really; but, this will be be a pretty veteran team. It's not entirely crazy to suggest Oregon might return the fewest amount of starters in 2025 I can recall in 30+ years (especially if a couple guys like Stewart and James break out and Conerly decides to test the NFL waters). Maybe something as small as 4 or 5 and even possibly as few as 2 or 3. WR: senior WR: senior WR: junior (but could possibly declare) TE: senior QB: senior RB: junior (but could possibly declare) OL: senior OL: senior OL: sophomore OL: senior OL: junior (but very possibly could declare) DE: senior DT: senior NT: senior EG: sophomore LB: senior LB: senior CB: senior CB: senior* FS: senior SS: senior NB: senior (* Not counting Florence as it sounds like he may not be recovered until into the season)
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Comparing the Ceiling of Our Offense: Bo Nix vs. Dillon Gabriel
I got myself in a bit of trouble in a thread a while back and I certainly will own it, I didn't express my thoughts too well. Bo Nix was great at Oregon and when I dabbled in a bit of perhaps criticism, it didn't go well. I've had time to reformulate the thought, so here it goes. When Nix transferred to Oregon, he was borderland out of the draft. He came to Oregon to right the ship. Was he going all of a sudden to make a bunch of NFL throws, dropping balls into windows and throwing guys open. I think that is fair to say unlikely. Ok, but that isn't exactly the only consideration. It's ok I think to suggest Bo arrived at Oregon with both team and personal goals. I've heard the jokes about "Bo Pix"; but, even at Auburn he wasn't a guy who put the ball up in a lot of danger back then, and his interception numbers prior to Oregon weren't that bad. Nix came to Oregon to rehabilitate himself and do what he does well with a fresh start. His path to the NFL was really turning some heads, putting up a huge QBR, a high completion percentage, and not turning the ball over. Minus Washington it was fabulous. Here is where I got in trouble. I think Bo was just programmed to mostly avoid risks. Which worked most of the time; but, to make that final step, occasionally a guy needs to drop a ball in a window or otherwise accept the risk and feel he can make a big throw. To look down field and gamble to make a play. 50-50? Ok. Maybe even 40-60? Ok. But one gives you a chance and the other "what on the world happened?, this never had a decent chance." I do think that was not something mostly on the Nix program. And I respect that; but, I think that was a bit of the difference between the seasons Nix had and the season Penix had. Penix got into those situations and was remarkably successful most of the way. Could Bo have done the same? Absolutely; but, I don't exactly feel he felt free to trust **everything** involved in making such throws and generally didn't decided to roll the dice. There always in such situations a **safer** percentage options that, if it fails, people tend to understand "It's the best odds that was left so it makes sense". Which is ok unless the moment ultimately requires a bit of a play. Akili had it, Joey had it, I think DT and really even Masoli had it, I'm not sure MM really was in that spot to much; but, Justin had it. Justin walked in as a true freshman and felt all day he had the arm to put the ball into windows and risk making a play because he had confidence he could make the throw. Was that Bo? Looking back years from now I certainly feel I may be mistaken. In Gabriel, a different player, where embracing those throws and willing to make them is the calculus different than what was programmed into Nix? I think maybe because the "cost to benefit" ratio is just different. Is a huge NFL throw will be more of a benefit DG than it ever would have been for BN? I will suggest accepting the gamble, maybe be different than Nix. Where here did it get Penix? Obviously well; but, where did it get Nix? Not to bad either. Quite possibly this doesn't make a lot of sense. Go Ducks.