Hate It, New Rumor re AZ and CU Leaving

[Steven A]

College football expansion: Big 12 set to add two teams, per report

WWW.MSN.COM

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With speculation that college football expansion and conference realignment is set to pick up again soon, it appears that the Big 12 will be the conference that makes the next move, with insiders...

 

So, let's see, if we don't like the new media deal were gone . . .  but if we do, we staying.

 

Seems reasonable since everyone wants their cake and eat it too.

 

With the "eat their own" attitude of college sports now adays, every team could take this avenue and not sign off on the grant of rights and enter the conference realignment portal.

[2002duck]

No new news in that article. The way I see it is that it is probably best for everyone in the Pac to stay for another TV deal until Oregon and Washington leave, but that if the TV deal isn't very good, teams bordering BIG-12 territory might as well leave now. 

 

I would not begrudge CU & UA if they got it over with and left. I guess The Pac would have to invite SDSU ASAP if that happened. 

[Jon Joseph]

SSDD. 

 

According to the learned pundits OR ST and WA ST are already in the Mountain West. The 4 Corners schools are in the B12 (what media entity is going to pay for this,) OR and UW are in the B1G, and Stanford and Cal are in the Ivy League

 

No Pac-10 team is leaving before the bottom line on the new media deal is finalized and revealed. 

 

These folks are terrific at spending other people's money. Not only do media companies have to come up with the cash but they then have to sell the media rights to 3rd party advertisers at a 15% markup to make a profit. 

 

SMH.

[RedRaider]

As someone who follows Big12 media and knows who to believe and who to disregard, I'm here to tell you to ignore anything Swaim says. He just makes stuff up for clicks sometimes they turn out to be true but not because he actually knows something or has a real source.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/5/2023 at 4:43 PM, WoadBlue said:

I agree about Swaim.

 

Aren't Arizona and Colorado now at the bottom of the Pac in terms of TV viewers for football? If you are below Wazzou and Oregon St, then you are not much. I assume then that the Big 12 would want that pair only to entice Utah and Arizona St. 

 

If that goes down, then I do expect the ACC to try to woo Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Utah and Arizona State. 

Great post. But CU is about to get a Prime lift-off. 

 

1st game at TCU and 2nd game vs Nebraska are scheduled for prime-time TV.

 

I hope the Buffs game at Oregon will receive national attention and I am close to certain that SC at CU will be a prime-time broadcast.

[RedRaider]

On 6/5/2023 at 4:50 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Great post. But CU is about to get a Prime lift-off. 

 

1st game at TCU and 2nd game vs Nebraska are scheduled for prime-time TV.

 

I hope the Buffs game at Oregon will receive national attention and I am close to certain that SC at CU will be a prime-time broadcast.

Arizona and CU are attractive on their own without ASU or Utah but I'll admit I think they want the set of 4. The mountain time zone is complimentary to the Big12's current teams and would help them fill late night slots. Plus both football teams seem to be on the way up and Arizona basketball is elite.

 

Can the ACC woo anybody? Seems to me they are in a stale mate where adding any teams would require a new grant of rights to be signed. If they have to scrap the old grant of rights to sign a new one they will lose FSU, Miami, etc.

[JDuck]

I saw Bigfoot tracks...in the Siskiyous.  In 1984

[HDuck]

I read somewhere that Denver would be the third biggest market in the Big12 if Yormark can convince them to switch.   Along with publicity that would be attached to Coach Prime, I assume that is why Yormark is interested.   Dallas (TCU) and Houston (Houston) would be the top two.  But, TCU has to be down a couple pegs in Dallas below UT and A&M.

[1Funduck]

I'm probably blind and clueless. I don't see CU leaving. 

 

Colorado is about to get an incredible CASH infusion with in game attendance. Donations to the Colorado Athletic Fund thru individual tix should see an instant impact. Every seat will be a paying seat and not a give away. Now you got to believe that all the Buffalo Chip faithful have to have a Bowl Game in their Starry eyed futures come December? 

 

I know they have history in the Big12, but Nebraska isn't there anymore. Oklahoma and Texas are gone. The heavy hitters have left the B12. Whats the draw for the B12? Is it really only money? OK, whats the difference in pay outs? 

 

One would think that Coach Prime is building a powerful team in Colorado. A team that has iys eyes set for a playoff. Which way is easier? Which conference is more aligned with its students needs and paying fans desires? You know, the ones who drive/fly to the games?

 

I've got this sickening feeling that the middling teams in the PAC just might regret a hasty decision founded on the difference in paychecks of a couple million dollars.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/5/2023 at 5:55 PM, RedRaider said:

Arizona and CU are attractive on their own without ASU or Utah but I'll admit I think they want the set of 4. The mountain time zone is complimentary to the Big12's current teams and would help them fill late night slots. Plus both football teams seem to be on the way up and Arizona basketball is elite.

 

Can the ACC woo anybody? Seems to me they are in a stale mate where adding any teams would require a new grant of rights to be signed. If they have to scrap the old grant of rights to sign a new one they will lose FSU, Miami, etc.

Great thoughts. But again I have to question where the money is coming from.

 

Yarmack's piggy bank is not that fat.

[RedRaider]

On 6/5/2023 at 7:32 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Great thoughts. But again I have to question where the money is coming from.

 

Yarmack's piggy bank is not that fat.

Yeah idk that’s the question. I’m not saying they will or won’t lure CO away. Just saying why they would be attractive to the Big12. 
it’s all gonna come down to the dollars and visibility that GK negotiates. Right now the Big12 has secured a deal for good money and that’s what makes it attractive. 

[2002duck]

On 6/5/2023 at 4:16 PM, 1Funduck said:

One would think that Coach Prime is building a powerful team in Colorado. A team that has iys eyes set for a playoff. Which way is easier?

Deion Sanders apparently said he would like to go to the BIG-12 and make Texas its main recruiting ground. This would be as opposed to staying in the PAC and trying to build upon recruiting in Socal, etc.

 

Nothing stopping him from recruiting in Texas now, but it might be easier to get recruits to commit if the kids can play more games in the Texas area. As of now, Colorado will be playing no games in Texas and no games in Socal (like the rest of us after USC/UCLA leave). 

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/5/2023 at 6:10 PM, 2002duck said:

Deion Sanders apparently said he would like to go to the BIG-12 and make Texas its main recruiting ground.

Sounds like a smoke-screen to me, because, as you pointed out--Prime can recruit there now.  Oregon has EIGHT recruits from Texas between the 2023 class, and 2024 thus far.

[NJDuck]

I agree with Jon.  I would be completely surprised if Fox/ESPN are willing to up the ante to keep it at 31.7M per school no matter how many schools are added?

 

Let’s just say no more money from the media giants.  Every time a school gets added will knock the amount down a few million per school per year.

 

Why would the existing schools agree to this?  CU, Arizona and the likes need to have the Big 12 show them the money, backing it up with the contract agreement in hand.

 

From what I’ve read, not much substance behind these storylines.

[curtisd316]

ESPN and FOX will pay full shares for P5 schools added

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/5/2023 at 9:10 PM, 2002duck said:

Deion Sanders apparently said he would like to go to the BIG-12 and make Texas its main recruiting ground. This would be as opposed to staying in the PAC and trying to build upon recruiting in Socal, etc.

 

Nothing stopping him from recruiting in Texas now, but it might be easier to get recruits to commit if the kids can play more games in the Texas area. As of now, Colorado will be playing no games in Texas and no games in Socal (like the rest of us after USC/UCLA leave). 

Not doubting you but questioning the source of Deion's comment.

 

As it so happens CU does play in Texas this season, opening at TCU on prime time TV.   

 

I expect that games will be played in San Diego at Snap Dragon Stadium and that the conference could schedule neutral-site conference games in LA.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/5/2023 at 9:50 PM, curtisd316 said:

ESPN and FOX will pay full shares for P5 schools added

Curtis, ESPN is not flush with money and has to come up with $140M for OK/TX a year earlier than expected.

 

Fox has LA tied up. Why would Fox pay even half of $31.7 million, $15.85M x 6 years of the new B12 media deal = $95.1M for more B12 inventory in the Mountain time zone?

 

Why would CU agree to take a lesser revenue share than BYU? The Pac deal if it falls short of the B12 deal will be short by a couple of million if that.

 

I'm reasonably certain that Fox will spend money on expanding the B1G and not the B12. What would be CU's biggest game draw in the B12?  At TCU?

 

I'll be surprised if CU's game at TCU this season, even though broadcast as Fox's Big Noon game, will draw 4M plus eyeballs.

 

Oregon or UW versus Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska will draw 4M plus viewers. CU does not have the market cachet of OR/UW. Definitely not that of Notre Dame and likely not more than UNC if the B1G looks East.

 

Fox has to re-sell the media rights at an @15% markup to cover broadcast costs and make a profit. I don't think Fox can promise any advertiser that CU games in the B12 would draw enough eyeballs to make their investment worthwhile.

 

This is not the media market today that existed even 12 months ago.

 

And ESPN/Fox did not blindly commit to stepping up with the money for 1 to 4 P5 teams the B12 wants to add without doing their own vetting. The B12 has nowhere near that kind of negotiating leverage. 

 

Hang in. All this rumor-mongering will pass. Most likely sometime in July. And in 2024, at least one Pac team will be in the playoff, likely with a 1st round bye.

[2002duck]

On 6/5/2023 at 6:52 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Not doubting you but questioning the source of Deion's comment.

Well, I did say "apparently" because the source was Dennis Dodd! 

 

 

[curtisd316]

Its been reported by multiple sources

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/5/2023 at 8:47 PM, RedRaider said:

Yeah idk that’s the question. I’m not saying they will or won’t lure CO away. Just saying why they would be attractive to the Big12. 
it’s all gonna come down to the dollars and visibility that GK negotiates. Right now the Big12 has secured a deal for good money and that’s what makes it attractive. 

Great take. But I'd say decent and not good money. The Pac will come close to or exceed this number but it's still a race for the Bronze between the ACC, B12, and Pac.

 

The ACC receives $20M a team directly from ESPN but also received $20M for each team from Network distribution in 2022. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/5/2023 at 10:12 PM, 2002duck said:

Well, I did say "apparently" because the source was Dennis Dodd! 

 

 

Gobbly-gook. "I'm told?" Who is doing the telling? 

 

My sarcasm is directed at Dodd and most certainly not at you, 2002.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[2002duck]

On 6/5/2023 at 7:10 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Curtis, ESPN is not flush with money and has to come up with $140M for OK/TX a year earlier than expected.

"The (Big-12) conference’s new TV contract calls for a pro-rata share for any Power 5 expansion members. Additions from the Group of 5 could mean splitting the television revenue by however many programs are added—a potential issue for some officials."- Sports Illustrated May 2023. 

 

I guess the issue here is how bad the Pac media deal will be. If Colorado can make a similar amount, or even less in the Big-12, it might be worth it for them to get it over with.

 

I'm in the camp that thinks the Pac is essentially dead, and we are merely being kept alive on life support until someone pulls the plug. The question is, will Colorado be the one to end the misery? 

[Jon Joseph]

'The report of my death has been greatly exaggerated.' Mark Twain

 

Even without LA, the Pac-10 has better markets than the B12. Oregon was the 7th most watched team in the country last season.

 

Take out Texas and Oklahoma and a TCU team that made the playoff and a K-State team that won the conference title did not draw close to the eyeballs that watched Oregon play.

 

The Pac-10 media deal will come close to or exceed that of the B12 deal. I don't see any Pac-10 team leaving for the B12 for a few million dollars more a year. What Pac-10 teams want to travel to Orlando and West Virginia for close to the same money?

 

After the deal is announced and the conference's short-term future is solidified the Pac will add the San Diego and Dallas markets at a discount from what the Pac-10 teams will be receiving from the new media deal.

 

I'm sorry, there is No Way that ESPN/Fox has committed to paying $31,7M a year for any 4 P5 teams the B12 decides to invite to the conference. And there is no way any of the 4 Corners schools will take a lesser share than BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. The B12 without Texas and Oklahoma is not financially powered with this kind of negotiating leverage.

 

2 B12 teams have made the playoff and one, OK, is leaving after this season. The B12's playoff record is 1-5.

 

2 Pac-12 teams have made the 4 team playoff field, Oregon and UW. Combined record, 1-2. 

 

By any and every metric the 'new B12' is not superior to the Pac-10 when it comes to football, the straw that stirs the drink.

 

Do not underestimate the financial impact that streaming on Apple or Amazon will have. Both tech companies have millions and millions more household contacts than the Pac-12 Network with 13M subscribers. 

 

The B12 sans Dallas, where TCU is well behind Texas and A+M in viewership, and the same with Houston in the Houston market, is more of a 'truck-stop' league than the B1G.

 

Don't let the click-bait chicken littles get you down. 

 

GK is selling college sports to tech companies that have never broadcast college sports. Fox has laid off key players at its news subsidiary, ESPN has terminated many employees and cut back on the salary of many others. Many B1G games will be streamed on NBC's Peacock which only has 20M subscribers.

 

This is simply the toughest media market to do a deal in the last decade. But a deal will get done and it will not be distant from that of the B12 deal and it will run for at least 1 fewer season giving the conference the opportunity to do a new deal ahead of the B1G and the B12.

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/6/2023 at 9:10 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Don't let the click-bait chicken littles get you down. 

Epic post.  Copy and save it, as you can certainly use it again many times in the future!

[HappyToBeADuck]

Well we could consider a couple of factors into all this social media chatter......

 

1. The PAC and its fans should not be suprised by the animosity aimed ay thrm from the BIG 12. The PAC tried to poach UT and OU and that failed. Then when the BIG 12 needed a lifeline the PAC spurned them. How do feel when you are rejected.

 

2. CU may have been opposed to the conference approving GK to see if CSU was a good fit. Maybe some feelongs of not being valued?

 

3. The road to the CFP will be easier thru the BIG 12. UO, Utes, little puppies and Beavers will be difficult to get thru.

 

Just a few thoughts....

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/6/2023 at 12:30 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Well we could consider a couple of factors into all this social media chatter......

 

1. The PAC and its fans should not be suprised by the animosity aimed ay thrm from the BIG 12. The PAC tried to poach UT and OU and that failed. Then when the BIG 12 needed a lifeline the PAC spurned them. How do feel when you are rejected.

 

2. CU may have been opposed to the conference approving GK to see if CSU was a good fit. Maybe some feelongs of not being valued?

 

3. The road to the CFP will be easier thru the BIG 12. UO, Utes, little puppies and Beavers will be difficult to get thru.

 

Just a few thoughts....

Spot on. We should be living in a Power 4 world with the B12 having been buried.

 

It was not enough to reject B12 'orphans' the Pac had to brag that these schools were not worthy of being members of the 'Elite Club.' SMH!

 

This is another reason I would like to see the OK ST and Baylor series bought out. These 2 and TX Tech as you so noted Happy are going to be fired up against every Pac team on the schedule.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

In these uncertain times, everyone is making a plan B.  Reports of someones plan B should be placed in the of course file. The media landscape is undergoing drastic changes right before our eyes. Chord cutting is a real thing and network layoffs reflect that. Streaming is the future but not the present but do you sign a media deal for the present if the present will soon become the distant past?

 

When this is all said and done, I'd expect the Pac to be in a position to be on the cutting edge of the streaming wave with a contract that rewards view shares. The Ducks just may become the Pac's leader in international visibility as an Amazon or Apple or whatever becomes an international leader in streaming sports content. I feel like we are in a classic darkest before the dawn moment.

[Rufus]

Big 12 expansion: Colorado could leave Pac-12; Buffaloes call executive meeting

247SPORTS.COM

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/6/2023 at 1:32 PM, Rufus said:

Big 12 expansion: Colorado could leave Pac-12; Buffaloes call executive meeting

247SPORTS.COM

 

Another original, well-sourced take. 

 

How about 15 yards for piling on? 

[Jon Joseph]

See todays' takes by Dennis Dodd (!) and John Canzano that both pour oil on the Pac-10's demise.

 

The B12 is nowhere close to poaching any Pac-10 team and the Pac-10 appears to be close to adding SDSU and shutting the B12 out of the San Diego market.