Texas Tech - Don't Nap on this B-12 Sleeper

[Jon Joseph]

Tyler Shough, 8-0 in games he has started and finished at TT and is now in his 6th season of CFB, and the fans in Lubbock will be super fired up for the Ducks flying into Lubbock. Especially, after not so long ago being given a stiff arm by the Pac-12, having been found unworthy to receive an invite from the 'Elite Club.' Hubris is a witch.

 

TT finished the 2022 season with 4 straight wins including a decisive defeat of Ole Miss in its bowl game. The Red Raiders opening game trip to Wyoming could be tricky with Oregon visiting the following week but TT should be 5-0 in its last 5 games when Oregon like a rubber ball, bounces into the land of Buddy Holly. TT defeated both Oklahoma and Texas last season in the process of running the most plays from scrimmage in CFB. The clock not stopping after 1st downs as was going to be the case in 2023 before the D3 objected should help TT's hectic, fast-paced O. In 2023 in a one-off 14-team B12, TT misses both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State

 

Here's hoping that TT will be ranked in the top 25 of the AP and Coaches polls which will give Oregon a scheduling boost. The game originally scheduled to be shown on FS1 will now be broadcast on Fox. 

 

 

 

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/why-texas-tech-is-the-big-12s-top-sleeper-title-contender-2023

[HappyToBeADuck]

TT will give the Ducks all they can handle in Lubbock. On the other hand the Ducks will give TT all they can handle, too.

 

Should be a great game and draw more than 4 million viewers. The bench mark of baloney shoveled by self serving networks to determine who has value or not for their interests.

 

The Duck D will need to gel very early this fall. A Duck victory may very well depend on a critical stop or turnover by the D. TS's experience will allow him to exploit any missed assignments or blown coverages.

 

TS is not a quick, mobile QB and should be running and scrambling all day away from the Duck front 7.

 

Many on the national scene dont see this as a big time matchup. Just more shoveled baloney. This is a critical game for the Ducks. A loss would narrow the Ducks path to the CFP. The margin of error will be reduced to ZERO.

 

I expect the D to rise to the level of the 2019 squad and throttle TT. This is a statement game for both teams and offers BN a national audience in his march toward the Heisman.

 

Lets play some ball ......

 

GO DUCKS!

[kirklandduck]

This one's a trap game for OBD. TT is sneaky good. The biggest factor working in their favor is a ton of returning experience. Much easier to start off the season on the right foot not having to coach up so much and get a jump on teams in transition. 

 

The offense will need to get situated quickly with Will Stein running things, otherwise the game will go sideways in a hurry.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/24/2023 at 12:55 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

TT will give the Ducks all they can handle in Lubbock. On the other hand the Ducks will give TT all they can handle, too.

 

Should be a great game and draw more than 4 million viewers. The bench mark of baloney shoveled by self serving networks to determine who has value or not for their interests.

 

The Duck D will need to gel very early this fall. A Duck victory may very well depend on a critical stop or turnover by the D. TS's experience will allow him to exploit any missed assignments or blown coverages.

 

TS is not a quick, mobile QB and should be running and scrambling all day away from the Duck front 7.

 

Many on the national scene dont see this as a big time matchup. Just more shoveled baloney. This is a critical game for the Ducks. A loss would narrow the Ducks path to the CFP. The margin of error will be reduced to ZERO.

 

I expect the D to rise to the level of the 2019 squad and throttle TT. This is a statement game for both teams and offers BN a national audience in his march toward the Heisman.

 

Lets play some ball ......

 

GO DUCKS!

Happy, love the comment but 4M will be very hard to draw; especially, with the game going against Texas at Bama on ESPN. I think 2M would be great.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Yeah JJ, you are probably correct on that number. Depends what the kick off/broadcast window is......

 

Bama vs Texas game could be a blow out.  Texas cant even win the BIG 12 so they may find the Tide a bit tougher to handle.

 

Gonna be a fun day of football for us fans. A UT and TT loss could set the BIG12 perception back on a national level. Victories by UT and TT and their conference will be in the thick of the CFP conversation going forward.

[Jon Joseph]

I hear you Happy, but last season even with putting Quinn Ewers on the ground and the bench in the first half Bama needed all of the Bryce Young magic to get into position for a walk-off FG.

 

Ewers is back and the Bama QB situation is iffy. And will the new OC from ND, Tommy Rees, be at the level of Bama's last 3 OCs including Sark? But Tuscaloosa is an extremely difficult place to walk out of with a W. 

 

I'm fairly certain that as of today's date the UT at Bama game will be going against the TT game on ESPN. And you can bet that Gameday will be in Tuscaloosa. It would be an 11 AM Central start but it would be nice if the game at TT was the Fox Big Noon game. The last time Oregon kicked off on the road at 9 AM Eastern things worked out well, with Oregon saying Goodbye Columbus with a win.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Bama vs,Texas kickoff at 6:00 pm on ESPN. Big time game, prime time kickoff.

 

This provides FOX good windows to broadcast the Oregon vs TT game and not butt up against the blue blood matchup.

 

Just the thought of actual football is so exciting. GO DUCKS!

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/24/2023 at 4:01 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Bama vs,Texas kickoff at 6:00 pm on ESPN. Big time game, prime time kickoff.

 

This provides FOX good windows to broadcast the Oregon vs TT game and not butt up against the blue blood matchup.

 

Just the thought of actual football is so exciting. GO DUCKS!

The kickoff time for the TT game is 7 PM Eastern. Most of the 4th quarter should not be going against UT/Bama.  Hope a lot of the viewers watching the game of the week will switch over. 

[Santa Rosa Duck]

Yesterday evening at dinner in Ashland prior to getting our fill of Shakespeare, we are sitting next to a young man with his young son and they are both decked out in Texas Tech jackets and hats. We had a friendly discussion but I certainly did not wish him well on September 9th! I will say that he was knowledgeable and confident about their chances.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/24/2023 at 6:37 PM, Santa Rosa Duck said:

Yesterday evening at dinner in Ashland prior to getting our fill of Shakespeare, we are sitting next to a young man with his young son and they are both decked out in Texas Tech jackets and hats. We had a friendly discussion but I certainly did not wish him well on September 9th! I will say that he was knowledgeable and confident about their chances.

In regard to Red Raider dreams: True, I talk of dreams, which are the children of an idle brain, born from nothing except frivolous imaginations. Mercutio, Romeo and Juliet

[Santa Rosa Duck]

Thank you Jon, it is indeed Romeo and Juliet tonight. Last night was Twelfth Night. I wish I could understand Elizabethan English a bit better.

[OceaniaDuck]

Yup, this game should be a nail-biter - Texas Tech is no joke. I wouldn't be surprised if OBD escape Lubbock by a winning margin of a FG or less if indeed they are victorious.

The possibility is very real that this could be a trap game for the Ducks if they don't play their hearts out. That said, I'm confident OBD will do well in this match-up. Go Ducks!

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/24/2023 at 7:26 PM, Santa Rosa Duck said:

Thank you Jon, it is indeed Romeo and Juliet tonight. Last night was Twelfth Night. I wish I could understand Elizabethan English a bit better.

Enjoy the poetry if not the words per se. And watch out for bare bodkins!

[Haywarduck]

Texas Tech has to replace the talent and leadership of one of the best defenders in college football, Tyree Wilson.  Oregon has to continue to build its' defense.  Will TT replace, and will Oregon build, that is the question I have for this game.

[David Marsh]

On 6/24/2023 at 8:43 PM, Haywarduck said:

Texas Tech has to replace the talent and leadership of one of the best defenders in college football, Tyree Wilson.  Oregon has to continue to build its' defense.  Will TT replace, and will Oregon build, that is the question I have for this game.

If Oregon's defense looks like it did during the spring game I feel pretty good. The coverage was pretty tight and there was consistent pass rush. 

 

Granted I want to see it taken up a level because it would be Oregon's starters all playing with a full fall camp under their belts. But after the spring game I do feel the Oregon defense has taken some much needed steps towards improvement.

 

Has Lanning Fixed the Duck Defense's Soft Underbelly?

FISHDUCK.COM

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The Oregon Ducks' defense has maintained one major problem for the last three years. Simply put, it has a...

 

Ensuring the defense can get off the field will be of the utmost importance against Texas Tech. 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

Seeing as how TX Tech ran the most plays from scrimmage in 2022 was any team more benefitted than TT with the clock continuing to stop (thank you D3) after 1st downs for at least 1 more season. D best have its roller skates in hand. This O will test the skill and depth of the Ducks D. I expect TT will run at least 80 plays from the LOS. The run game also better show up for Oregon.

 

An under the radar stat from 2022 that I love. Last season 2 RBs in G5/P5 football carried the ball 150 times or more at better than 6.5 yards per carry. UCLA's Charbonnet and Oregon's Mar'Keise (Bucky) Irving. (SEC fans, insert snarky Pac-12 D comment here.)

[Charles Fischer]

With Burch on one side, Matayo on the other and Dorlus rushing from the middle…we have weapons on defense unavailable last year!

 

Throw in tighter coverage from the secondary, and the result will be a pass defense that is much, much better than 2022.

[David Marsh]

On 6/25/2023 at 10:03 AM, Charles Fischer said:

With Burch on one side, Matayo on the other and Dorlus rushing from the middle…we have weapons on defense unavailable last year!

 

Throw in tighter coverage from the secondary, and the result will be a pass defense that is much, much better than 2022.

And linebackers that look to be flexible and able to defend the run and cover in space! 

 

The secondary should give the front seven the time they need to get consistent pressure. Especially with some beasts on the dline. 

[HappyToBeADuck]

Last year, under Dilly, the Ducks offense sustained multiple play drives to take time off the clock. This pattern reduced the number of plays left for the Ducks opponents.

 

I remember, during the ucla game, the network showed a worried Chip Kelley on the sidelines. It was past the mid point in the 4th quarter. The analyst commented that CK was realizing the Ducks had reduced his offenses opportunities to run enough plays to catch up.

 

The Ducks best defense in 2022 was the Duck offense of 2022 being on the field. I dont feel that will be the case in 2023.

 

However, time consuming, 14 play drives through out the TT game can reduce the number of plays the TT offense can run. Keeping TT under 65 plays and the Duck D getting off the field on 3rd down should go a long way toward victory.

 

Of course thats how Dilly ran the 2022 offense.  Stein may not.......

 

GO DUCKS........

[David Marsh]

On 6/25/2023 at 11:39 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Of course thats how Dilly ran the 2022 offense.  Stein may not.......

I see it part of a greater Lanning offensive philosophy. If you watch the pacing of Duck games last year there were really three phases to the game. 

 

Phase 1 - getting comfortable and getting early points. 

 

Phase 2 - the crazy middle 8.

 

Phase 3 - burn the clock and win the game. 

 

Here's my article on the middle eight. 

 

Dan Lanning is Embracing the Middle Eight Theory

FISHDUCK.COM

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Football is a sport of bizarre statistics that mostly seem irrelevant, but if you dive into them, they tell a greater...

 

and here is Charles' article on Lanning burning clock. 

 

Is Lanning's New Game-Plan...Chip Kelly 2.0?

FISHDUCK.COM

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Oregon just beat the master, and his offense. How can you say the Ducks are CK 2.0? This is a natural...

 

[Charles Fischer]

Thank you for posting that David, as I was going to. In my article, is a screenshot of the worried expression on Chip Kelly’s face, as he knew he was screwed. There was not enough time for him to score enough to win…

[HappyToBeADuck]

David, thank you for reposting yours and Charles articles. Great analysis and breakdowns by both of you.

 

Thanks to all of the writers and posters. You all make this site so special.......

 

GO DUCKS.... GO OBDF......

[AnotherOD]

Shough has had his share of injuries since arriving at TT (not counting one game he was knocked out very, very early) has only played in 10 of 26 possible TT games in 2021 and 2022.

 

While it seems like he has been around college football forever, he has only attempted 10 or more passes in a game in his college career 16 times (for comparison Nix in the same number of career seasons has done it 47 times).

 

Of those 10 games, only 2 have been starts against power 5 opponents that finished the season with a winning record, and in those games had NCAA passing efficiency ratings were 78.9 and 117.0 (1-1).

 

While likely the default starter at TT, and while having overall a good winning percentage in games he has started and played significant snaps in (8-2), he really hasn't "wowed" too many TT fans over the last two years (if checking out fans opinions in a couple TT forums is a fair representation). He's a guy who brought a lot of optimism with him to TT, who seems to generally been the QB who just has been a tiny bit better on paper and gotten the nod. TT fans appear to be somewhat split on how much the injuries should be weighted in their QB debates.

 

On paper, Oregon would have to appear to have a pretty big advantage at QB.

 

One little bit I found interesting was that TS in his one starting season at Oregon (COVID year) was pretty solid with his legs, in 7 games rushing 66 times for 271 yards.

 

In his first 7 games at TT, he rushed 28 times for 19 yards. However, in his last 4 games where TT went 4-0, he (again) rushed 60 times for 264 yards (maybe his game opens up a bit when allowed more opportunities to run, rather than sit in the pocket?) Might be something to keep an eye on?

 

[RedRaider]

On 6/25/2023 at 9:25 PM, AnotherOD said:

Shough has had his share of injuries since arriving at TT (not counting one game he was knocked out very, very early) has only played in 10 of 26 possible TT games in 2021 and 2022.

 

While it seems like he has been around college football forever, he has only attempted 10 or more passes in a game in his college career 16 times (for comparison Nix in the same number of career seasons has done it 47 times).

 

Of those 10 games, only 2 have been starts against power 5 opponents that finished the season with a winning record, and in those games had NCAA passing efficiency ratings were 78.9 and 117.0 (1-1).

 

While likely the default starter at TT, and while having overall a good winning percentage in games he has started and played significant snaps in (8-2), he really hasn't "wowed" too many TT fans over the last two years (if checking out fans opinions in a couple TT forums is a fair representation). He's a guy who brought a lot of optimism with him to TT, who seems to generally been the QB who just has been a tiny bit better on paper and gotten the nod. TT fans appear to be somewhat split on how much the injuries should be weighted in their QB debates.

 

On paper, Oregon would have to appear to have a pretty big advantage at QB.

 

One little bit I found interesting was that TS in his one starting season at Oregon (COVID year) was pretty solid with his legs, in 7 games rushing 66 times for 271 yards.

 

In his first 7 games at TT, he rushed 28 times for 19 yards. However, in his last 4 games where TT went 4-0, he (again) rushed 60 times for 264 yards (maybe his game opens up a bit when allowed more opportunities to run, rather than sit in the pocket?) Might be something to keep an eye on?

 

Shough was officially named the starter a couple of weeks ago over backup Behren Morton who many believe is an amazing talent. There was some controversy among the fans as to who should be the starter in 2023 prior to the bowl game against Ole Miss but Shough had his best game as a Red Raider and controlled the game from start to finish over a really good Ole Miss team. After that game the fan base really rallied around Shough and pretty much all agree he should be the starter. The thing that has made Shough good for Tech is is mental ability. He has done a great job of identifying what the defense is giving him and taking it. Kittley's offense gives the QB a lot of responsibility and requires a QB that can identify defenses and make adjustments. Shough did that extremely well last year in his limited time as the starter and I think he will be even better in year two in the offense.

 

Tech fans expect this to be a very competitive game and we believe we have a real chance to walk away with the victory and are excited to play a national brand like Oregon early in the season. I will be shocked if this isn't a top 25 matchup and I personally expect Tech to be ranked somewhere between 18-20.