Canzano Confirms Our Suspicions About Conference Priority...

[Charles Fischer]

Below is what Canzano wrote in a column today, and it confirms what the No. 1 priority for which conference Oregon will be in...

"The Ducks hired a high-profile consulting firm and charged it with conducting an assessment of its options. It quickly determined that access to the College Football Playoff mattered more to the Ducks than just about anything. 

Booster Phil Knight is the great equalizer, after all. Having top-notch facilities, the branding power of Nike, and the wealthiest donor collective in the conference positions Oregon to matter regularly in a 12-team postseason. That the Ducks don’t have to deal with Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State to get there is an advantage. 

 

As UO athletic director Rob Mullens told me in a 1-on-1 interview: “If you win your league you’re in.”

 

For that reason, Oregon remains on board with the Pac-12."

 

[Jon Joseph]

Now, let's cement the new media deal with teams making the CFB and CBB playoffs receiving a bigger share of the post-season money. Teams that invest more in CFB and CBB and make the money-ball playoffs deserve a better ROI than teams that do not. 

 

If the Pac finds it financially viable to stay with 10 teams that's fine with me as would be a round-robin schedule in football with the top 2 meeting in the conference champ game. What will be more accretive? Adding the San Diego and DFW markets or splitting media revenue and playoff revenue 10 and not 12 ways. With Larry's Comcast debacle, we need the dues! But it is the media partners that will dictate any decision regarding expansion. 

 

(BTW, please, please cross-claim against Larry in the wrongful termination suit brought by the 2 fired Pac-12 Network media executives who claim that Larry was well aware of the Comcast situation.)

[Pennsylvania Duck]

Canzano: Meet the new guy... again and again and again

 

John Karl Scholz officially started his new job at the president of the University of Oregon on July 1. That makes him the newest member of the Pac-12 CEO Group.

 

In fact, I’m told by a UO source that Scholz’s first duty was to start the job early and attend the conference’s board meeting on June 30. During that event, the remaining nine Pac-12 presidents and chancellors opened the fire hydrant and got the new guy up to speed.

 

Media rights negotiations.

 

Expansion decisions.

 

All that.

 

It appears more and more of Cazano's articles are behind a paywall, however today's article is free...

 

Canzano: Meet the new guy... again and again and again

WWW.JOHNCANZANO.COM

---

Pac-12 CEO Group gets a new board member.

[Charles Fischer]

To me, this news is huge because it states the priority of making the Playoffs is more important than a large media contract.  Obviously they have access to metrics/numbers that we do not that enter into their decision-making process.  It is evident that making the Playoff benefits more for Oregon in terms of the Brand, visibility, recruiting, and ultimately...money.

 

To be clear--I am not saying that beating Washington, Utah, Oregon State, etc. is an easy task.  But it is not as daunting as Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, and someone else on a given year, such as Wisconsin or Iowa.  If the Playoff is the goal--then the Pac-12 is the clear choice, and again--they must have calculated the massive B1G contract into the comparison.

 

Yet...this could also be a massive lift for Oregon over the next five years to build our audience so large that we can name our price to any conference later.  We will have leverage no matter where we end up.

 

It is a good day to be a Duck!

 

[Jon Joseph]

I love that President Schulz attended the Duck spring game and was then off to watch other on-campus sporting events. I believe this man understands the value of college athletics and the donations that come with excellence on the field and on the court. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[David Marsh]

Uncle Phil is the great equalizer... For the ducks anyways. 

 

Oregon will have the money to stay competitive and without the added travel. 

[HDuck]

Win, you're in.  In the Pac-12.

 

Finish second or third in the SEC or BigTen, and you still have a high probability.  Plus, the extra money from media shares.

 

Lose, you're out.  In the Pac-12.

 

Win, you're in, Pac-12.  At least in the initial eligibility/qualifications when the 12 begins.  But, in the future?

[Charles Fischer]

On 7/6/2023 at 8:46 AM, HDuck said:

Win, you're in.  In the Pac-12.

 

Finish second or third in the SEC or BigTen, and you still have a high probability.  Plus, the extra money from media shares.

 

Lose, you're out.  In the Pac-12.

 

Win, you're in, Pac-12.  At least in the initial eligibility/qualifications when the 12 begins.  But, in the future?

If Oregon becomes as powerful as we believe under Dan Lanning, and wins the conference a time or two, and gets into the Playoffs--we will have additional credibility built in that can enable us to still make a 12 team playoff when another Pac-12 team has a great year and wins the conference.

 

But you already knew that.  You just wanted to take our happy moment and...

 

 

You will not be seeing Rufus for a couple of months

as I've placed him a "time-out" for excessive negative

and needling.  (If you are having trouble taking the hint....PM me)

[David Marsh]

On 7/6/2023 at 9:25 AM, WoadBlue said:

The logic makes sense to me. But I do think the Pac needs to focus on OOC games vs. EST teams, because that will be a big help in securing more people who know the quality of the league's teams. 

This has been a long standing problem. 

 

The SEC does not like to travel west of Texas, so playing them doesn't always come with home and home benefits. 

 

I do think more scheduling with the ACC would be good.

[fred flintstone]

I believe that when all is said and done if 12 teams make the playoffs......the SEC and Big 10 get three slots each. The other conferences one slot each. With some special deal for Notre Dame. 

Maybe not in writing...but unofficially. 

Is the committee going to take a second place team in the pac 12 like, Utah, Arizona, Wa St or Washington over Auburn, Alabama, Penn St, Michigan, USC, UCLA, Michigan, Texas, Oklahoma.  

So, staying in the PAC 12 is about the same as going to the Big 10 for opportunity to make the playoffs.  

[Mudslide]

Right or wrong, keep in mind that JC is not reporting.  He is speculating ... my least favorite activity.

[HDuck]

In the Pac-12 era, since 2011, only once has the conference had two teams with no more than 2 losses, and within one game of each other.

2012:  12-2 Stanford (Rose), 12-1 Oregon (Fiesta)

 

As rare as that has been, and given the politics of team selection for the Playoff, I think two teams from the Pac would be rare too.

 

The Pac will not have the media value that accrues to other conferences, nor as large a share of Playoff revenue.  From a strictly money standpoint, membership in the BigTen would have value...and likely a third team from B1G will be more likely in the Playoff than a second from the Pac.

 

Earlier

2010:  12-1 Oregon, Stanford

 

2005:  12-1 USC, 10-2 Oregon, UCLA

 

2001:  11-1 Oregon, 10-2 WSU

 

2000:  11-1 UW, OSU; 10-2 Oregon

 

On another topic, given Oregon's leadership in W-L in the Pac-12 conference games since 2011, it is more than a bit frustrating to have so many B1G pundits throwing shade on the Ducks.

75-30 - Oregon

72-33 - USC

65-40 - Stanford

62-41 - UW

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/6/2023 at 11:46 AM, HDuck said:

Win, you're in.  In the Pac-12.

 

Finish second or third in the SEC or BigTen, and you still have a high probability.  Plus, the extra money from media shares.

 

Lose, you're out.  In the Pac-12.

 

Win, you're in, Pac-12.  At least in the initial eligibility/qualifications when the 12 begins.  But, in the future?

I think come 2024 the Pac will have a very good shot at sending its champ and one more team to the playoff. A 13-0/12-1 Pac champ is obviously in and I think a Pac 10 team with an 11-2 record will have a very good shot of making the field if it has a representative OOC schedule. Any team in the Pac with a 12-0 or 11-1 regular season record will be highly ranked going into the conference champ game. Ohio State and Michigan will not play Penn State every season but will play one another every season. Perhaps twice in a season if both make the champ game. And 9 conference games in the B1G will take its toll. It will not be easy for 3 B1G teams to finish 13-0/12-1, 11-1, and 11-1. I don't see a 10-2 B1G team ipso facto beating out an 11-1 Pac team. Same with the SEC. 

 

The scams that need to end, as should be voted on by 8 playoff representatives, are the ACC and the SEC playing 8 conference games and Notre Dame playing 12 games. It's outrageous in 2023 that only 2 SEC teams have 10 games versus P5 teams.  

 

If the 6 AL spots all go to B1G and SEC teams then come 2026 will we continue to have a playoff? Because of the money, I say yes but I also believe that come 2026 we will see a playoff with a 16-team field. And we will see less influence from ESPN which will no longer be the sole broadcaster of the playoff. I expect streaming entities to be in the mix when the 2026 media rights are put out to bid.

 

Also, come 2026 I think the 6 highest ranked conference champs will be in but there will be no 1st round byes and seeding will not be based on winning a conference title. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/6/2023 at 2:08 PM, David Marsh said:

This has been a long standing problem. 

 

The SEC does not like to travel west of Texas, so playing them doesn't always come with home and home benefits. 

 

I do think more scheduling with the ACC would be good.

David, look out for a decade and many SEC teams have home-and-home series scheduled with Pac-10 teams. This season Florida visits Utah, Auburn visits Cal and Arizona plays the back end of an H+H series against Mississippi State on the road. 

 

Teams are stepping up OOC across the country including Michigan which played no team with a heartbeat OOC in 2022 and will do the same in 2023, beginning a home-and-home series versus Texas in 2024. Bama trips to Wisconsin in 2024 and has a H+H scheduled with Arizona.

 

It still is not the norm for SEC teams to head west but it is improving. Hopefully, SOS will finally matter when the field expands in 204 and OOC scheduling will continue to improve. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/6/2023 at 2:29 PM, Mudslide said:

Right or wrong, keep in mind that JC is not reporting.  He is speculating ... my least favorite activity.

Correct but reporting not using unidentified 'sources.' Wilner is also in this camp.

[David Marsh]

On 7/6/2023 at 11:42 AM, Jon Joseph said:

David, look out for a decade and many SEC teams have home-and-home series scheduled with Pac-10 teams. This season Florida visits Utah, Auburn visits Cal and Arizona plays the back end of an H+H series against Mississippi State on the road. 

 

Teams are stepping up OOC across the country including Michigan which played no team with a heartbeat OOC in 2022 and will do the same in 2023, beginning a home-and-home series versus Texas in 2024. Bama trips to Wisconsin in 2024 and has a H+H scheduled with Arizona.

 

It still is not the norm for SEC teams to head west but it is improving. Hopefully, SOS will finally matter when the field expands in 204 and OOC scheduling will continue to improve. 

I'd say that is a changing pattern. 

 

But I'd also say that Florida scheduling with Utah has a lot less precieved risk of a loss for Florida. At least on paper at the time of scheduling. 

 

I think Oregon probably has a real struggle because traveling to Autzen can definitely come with a loss. I mean even Oregon traveling can be scary... Look at Ohio State. 

[HDuck]

As noted above, it is a rare season when the Pac12 champ had 1 loss (or zero) and the 2nd place team was within one game of that record.  I won't suggest a 13-0 champ and a 12-1 runnerup wouldn't both make it, but statistically those records have been rare.

 

Comparing a 3 loss B1G or SEC team to a two loss (11-2) Pac12 will historically be a preference to the B1G or SEC.   And, if they are comparing Pac's 11-2's with the ACC and Big12?

 

The perception of a weaker Pac will endure for years.  And, Playoff media rights holders will finger point at the diminished value of the Pac in comparison to viewership they could attract for participants from other conferences.

[David Marsh]

On 7/6/2023 at 12:25 PM, HDuck said:

As noted above, it is a rare season when the Pac12 champ had 1 loss (or zero) and the 2nd place team was within one game of that record.  I won't suggest a 13-0 champ and a 12-1 runnerup wouldn't both make it, but statistically those records have been rare.

 

Comparing a 3 loss B1G or SEC team to a two loss (11-2) Pac12 will historically be a preference to the B1G or SEC.   And, if they are comparing Pac's 11-2's with the ACC and Big12?

 

The perception of a weaker Pac will endure for years.  And, Playoff media rights holders will finger point at the diminished value of the Pac in comparison to viewership they could attract for participants from other conferences.

I would agree that getting a second PAC team into a 12 team playoff would be very difficult. The PAC has been the best conference at canabalizing itself for some time now. 

 

However, there is still talk about changing the number of conference games to 8. The ACC and SEC are at 8 so we wouldn't be alone at 8 conference games. 

 

Also... We are losing two teams that have been in the middle to upper conference fairly regularly. USC and UCLA haven't been good in the last ten years outside of a couple seasons but they have alwaysade the schedule more difficult for the eventual conference champion. 

 

Replacing USC and UCLA with SDSU and SMU would ease the schedule a bit for at least the next five years (5 years being roughly the time for these programs to adjust to a bigger conference). 

 

I could see a pac-12 champ and a runner up making the playoff in the right circumstances. 

 

2019 being the most recent example where this would have happened in a 12 team field. 

 

Oregon won the conference and Utah was runner up and both were ranked in the top 10. Utah was a near lock for the playoff that year if they won the conference, which they didn't. 

 

Neither were anywhere near good enough that year to sniff at the national championship game. Oregon's prevent offense saw to that even though we had a fantastic defense. 

 

So I believe it is possible to get 2 PAC teams into the playoff but it wouldn't be an every year occurrence at this time. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by David Marsh

[Haywarduck]

On 7/6/2023 at 8:26 AM, Charles Fischer said:

 

To be clear--I am not saying that beating Washington, Utah, Oregon State, etc. is an easy task.  But it is not as daunting as Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, and someone else on a given year, such as Wisconsin or Iowa.  If the Playoff is the goal--then the Pac-12 is the clear choice, and again--they must have calculated the massive B1G contract into the comparison.

 

Yet...this could also be a massive lift for Oregon over the next five years to build our audience so large that we can name our price to any conference later.  We will have leverage no matter where we end up.

 

It is a good day to be a Duck!

 

The problem with Penn State, is it is almost 3,000 miles away. The other programs are also too far. I think the biggest problem with playing a tough schedule is travel.

 

The other element the SEC has down, having more patsy opponents midseason. 

 

These are college kids who are away from home, have academic demands, and travel is extremely disruptive. This also may be why a senior qb, like Nix, may have a monster year. He probably has just a couple fun classes, and can completely focus on football. Freshman on up to 4th year seniors have a lot on their plate to deal with.

 

Against the spoiled children we have a winning record over the last decades, not afraid of them, or others, just the travel.

 

Agree after Lanning gets done building the program we can write our own ticket with the revenue angle taken care of in the Pac.

 

The Oregon Football Program is playing the long game, the LA schools the short game. I have a feeling their short game is going to fail, gonna miss the putt, when traveling.

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/6/2023 at 3:25 PM, HDuck said:

As noted above, it is a rare season when the Pac12 champ had 1 loss (or zero) and the 2nd place team was within one game of that record.  I won't suggest a 13-0 champ and a 12-1 runnerup wouldn't both make it, but statistically those records have been rare.

 

Comparing a 3 loss B1G or SEC team to a two loss (11-2) Pac12 will historically be a preference to the B1G or SEC.   And, if they are comparing Pac's 11-2's with the ACC and Big12?

 

The perception of a weaker Pac will endure for years.  And, Playoff media rights holders will finger point at the diminished value of the Pac in comparison to viewership they could attract for participants from other conferences.

HDuck, You are so correct, since the Pac added CU and Utah no team has gone 10-0.

 

I'm hoping that with the playoff field expanding that new history will be written. A 3L B1G is not a lock to get in over an 11-2 Pac conference runner-up or even a 10-3 Pac team IF the Pac team has scheduled up OOC, at least 1 P5 opponent. Unlike the SEC and Clemson, the B1G has not come through in the playoff with 1 title but an overall record of 3-7 including blowout losses by Michigan State and Ohio State. And come 2024 ESPN has no reason to push for the inclusion of B1G teams as it will no longer be broadcasting B1G games. Even with all things not being equal I don't see the SEC often placing 4 teams in the field. My biggest concern is Notre Dame stealing a playoff spot from a conference runner-up that played 13 games. 

 

Make no mistake, I lean in your direction when it comes to bias but I am holding out hope that a more objective day is coming with playoff expansion. The Pac-10 will have at least one representative on the playoff committee. But the Pac has to win or at least show up in non-conference games.

[Charles Fischer]

On 7/6/2023 at 12:25 PM, HDuck said:

As noted above, it is a rare season when the Pac12 champ had 1 loss (or zero) and the 2nd place team was within one game of that record.  I won't suggest a 13-0 champ and a 12-1 runnerup wouldn't both make it, but statistically those records have been rare.

 

Comparing a 3 loss B1G or SEC team to a two loss (11-2) Pac12 will historically be a preference to the B1G or SEC.   And, if they are comparing Pac's 11-2's with the ACC and Big12?

 

The perception of a weaker Pac will endure for years.  And, Playoff media rights holders will finger point at the diminished value of the Pac in comparison to viewership they could attract for participants from other conferences.

You are working very hard to support your "anti-Pac12" narrative with a 12 team Playoff, but that is not surprising considering your other posts in the last month.

 

The bottom line remains as stated before: if Oregon stacks top-ten recruiting classes as it is--we will dominate the conference, win the league the majority of time and be a welcome addition to the Playoffs.

[Notalot]

If indeed the strategy is an easier path to the playoffs in the near term that's good. It is very likely a safe spot for a holding pattern as the universe of college football evolves.

 

The Pac won't make it in the end, and Oregon will end up in an enviable conference or group when the frenzy slows, and the top 40 or 50 teams compete for the ultimate crown.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Notalot

[mrspenney]

I agree that the best situation for the Ducks is to stay right were we are.  SC is going to regret greatly the move to the Big 10, they have the worst fans in the West, if they lose two games you can shoot a cannon off in the coliseum and not hit anybody, which if you look at the last 10 years in the big 10 the future doesn't look good for SC and Good Gosh help UCLA.

[NJDuck]

 

As been stated, the Pac-12 will have a media deal and Oregon will stay in the Pac-12.  Hopefully signed by the time of the Pac-12 conference media day in Las Vegas, July 21.

 

I do think an invite to SDSU and SMU to the Pac-12 will only strengthen the conference with-in 5-6 years.

 

The only part I was interested in the write-up below was his take on the importance of Oregon's brand:

 

Oregon

 

The Big Ten will begin expanding its footprint to the west coast next season as USC and UCLA join the conference. The two schools will cover a huge media market residing in the southern California area. If the Big Ten wants to move further up the coast, then Oregon is the next best option.

 

All you have to say about Oregon is Nike. Having the backing of Phil Knight and Nike would be a huge deal for whatever conference the Ducks end up playing in, should the Pac-12 no longer exist.  Add that on top of Oregon football being a national brand, this only adds more intrigue to them.  Because let's face it, a large part of these expansions and realignment are based on football money.  Oregon football is one of the strongest of the remaining schools left in the Pac-12 that could get a lot of television interest, thus more revenue. If the Ducks were to come into the Big Ten, it would create some interesting new matchups and even some familiar Pac-12 ones.

 

Oregon, 3 college football team candidates for Big Ten conference expansion

CLUTCHPOINTS.COM

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Conference realignment continues in college football with the Big Ten likely to continue to expand. Could Oregon and others be next?

 

Canzano pointed out, Oregon's primary importance is after the playoffs.  The Pac-12 will be the easier path to get us there.  The conference champion will have an automatic entry into the 12-team bracket.  Would it be better for the conference to go from 9 to 8 conference games?

 

"The 12-team bracket will consist of six automatic qualifiers and six at-large bids chosen by the College Football Playoff committee. The six automatic entries will be the six highest-ranked conference champions.

College football's highest division, the Football Bowl Subdivision, consists of five "Power 5" conferences (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12) and five "Group of 5" conferences (American, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt). Including six conference champions guarantees the playoffs have at least one Group of 5 team each year."

 

College football is expanding its playoff to 12 teams — Here is everything we know about the new format

WWW.INSIDER.COM

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The playoff is expanding from four to 12 teams as early as 2024, and we already know a lot about who will be in and where the games will be played.

 

[Jon Joseph]

Thanks for the post NJ.

 

I have likely iterated and reiterated this fact too often but it is a fact that since the BCS x 2, so-called playoff inception, no school that played 9 conference games has won a playoff title. Ducks 1-1, UW 0-1, TCU 1-1, Michigan State 0-1, Michigan 0-2, Ohio State 3-4 with the champ win coming when Ohio State played 8 conference games (SIGH,) And our buddy Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma went 0-4. Notre Dame lost the ACC conference champ game to Clemson when it played as a full-time ACC member, keep the enabling coming ACC, and made the Final 4 but is 0-2 and plays 12, not 13 games, in a season.

 

IMO, Notre Dame should be required to play 13 games with 10 at least versus P5 opponents but ND must have photos of the other 10 G5/P5 conference commissioners. As far back as Steve Spurrier, many have called out the Domers to no effect. 

 

Teams that played 8 regular season conference games.

 

Alabama - 9-4 - 3 titles

 

Clemson - 6-4 - 2 titles

 

Georgia - 5-1 - 2 titles and Tua'd out of a 3rd

 

LSU - 2-0 - 1 title.

 

Cincinnati - 0-1. 

 

FSU - 0-1. (Nuck, nuck, nuck! But it was a game that could have gone either way, right Jameis?)

 

Of course, 8 conference games do not mean you cannot schedule additional P5 opponents OOC. It also doesn't mean that SEC teams with stacked rosters that played 8 would not have won a title playing 9. 6 titles speak for the power of the SEC. But Oregon playing a 9th conference opponent is, no matter what SEC honks have to say, more difficult than playing New Mexico State in the penultimate week of the regular season.

 

Yes, in 2023 Bama plays Texas and LSU plays FSU but only 2 SEC teams in 2023 play 10 games vs P5 teams. Way behind the other Power 4 conferences. In 2023 10 Pac-12 schools play at least 1 P5 opponent OOC and CU and Utah play 2 P5 teams OOC. UCLA and Oregon State play Zip.