Game Strategy - Receive Opening Kickoff or Defer to 2nd Half?

[mikethehiker]

I'm so excited for the big game this weekend and the opening kickoff can't get here soon enough!  Most coaches are now electing to defer the choice to receive the kickoff to the 2nd half of games after winning the opening coin toss.  In most situations, this sound strategy is an attempt to steal an extra possession by closing out the second half with the ball and getting it again after the break.

 

One obvious way for this to backfire is that the team receiving the opening kickoff also has last possession.  The other way this backfires is the opportunity to keep a potent offense off the field like we saw in the first half of the Stanford game.  One stalled drive and you could be down by two scores, losing big in time of possession and digging an early hole.  Against Stanford it was a couple of field goals, but against Washington or USC it could be a couple of touchdowns.

 

As I watched the Stanford game and saw the Ducks possess the ball for 3 plays and 6 yards in the first quarter, I thought, "This cannot happen in our upcoming games."  So the question is, "Would Coach Lanning rather possess the ball to open the game vs Washington or defer to the 2nd half?"

 

By receiving the opening kickoff, I see an opportunity to jump ahead of Washington and put a little bit of pressure on both their offense and defense - something they haven't really faced all season.  By staying at least one score ahead, it greatly reduces the opponent's margin for error.  Playing with the lead on the road will allow both our offense and defense to play "downhill".  The question isn't so much about probability of possessions, but more around dictating the flow of the game.  For most other opponents, I would defer to the 2nd half.

 

It's an either/or choice IF you win the coin toss.  I'm interested in what our OBD community would do in Dan Lanning's shoes and why...

[Charles Fischer]

I am thinking it might make more sense to receive at the beginning, so that with a scoring drive, you can quiet the crowd immediately.

[Log Haulin]

My opinion, defer and punch them in the mouth defensively. Steal first possession and set the tone.

 

Let Fusky know immediately how this is going to go down. 

[Haywarduck]

My curiosity is focused on our defense against their offense. With that in mind, bring on their offense!

 

Then, bring on the real offense!

[Just Ducky]

 Since we seem to start slow on the road it depends on the opponent but I too like getting the ball first this week Charles. Not sure I like the idea of Penix getting the rock first this Saturday.

 

 I’d be real shocked if Debour will defer if he wins the flip. If he does and it backfires the dogs might be in for a long day.

[Mudslide]

Bo said last week that the first 6 plays were scripted.  I speculate that was from the OC looking to see what the Stanford defense had planned for certain play types.  I obviously don't know if that is true, but it's something that I would try.  If that is the case (and planned) for the fuskie game, the coin flip won't matter.  If that speculation is ignored, I'd always choose to defend the opening kick.

[GODUCKS15]

You don't score on defense. Kicking off to start the game gives the other teams offense an advantage in that the defense is not sure what's coming. I see all too often the team that receives the kickoff taking the ball down and scoring maybe to never score again but they got the 1st score. 

 

I would receive against the Fuskies. Scoring opportunities won't come easy so why not be the 1st to score.

[Steven A]

Defense first.

 

I think this team will be fired up the same as the Colorado game.

 

ewe dub hasn't had an emotional game yet, so I think our amperage will be at 220 vs their 110, that is an advantage.

 

See them on offense early gives more time to adjust the defense just like with Stanford and we all liked the way that turned out.

[Solar]

You defer.

 

How else are you going to pick-six Penix on the first play of the game?

 

[Mic]

On 10/8/2023 at 11:22 PM, Charles Fischer said:

I am thinking it might make more sense to receive at the beginning, so that with a scoring drive, you can quiet the crowd immediately.

I know many people like to see their team defer the KO (if they win the toss) and try to 'steal' an extra possession at the end of the 1st Half.  But in this case I agree with you.  An early score, if the Ducks can manage it, would go a long way to settling down the crowd and putting pressure on the UW Offense.

[OregonDucks]

I would also receive against Washington since they don’t have a great defense. If you can run the ball, efficiently marching down the field, taking half the first quarter (while keeping Penix and Co. on the sideline) and score a TD on the opening possession, it could be demoralizing to the Huskies and their fans. 
 

That said, I don’t think that Dan Lanning will defer from his approach regardless of opponent. 

[Mic]

On 10/13/2023 at 8:24 AM, OregonDucks said:

That said, I don’t think that Dan Lanning will defer from his approach regardless of opponent. 

You may be right about Lanning's tendency to defer.  Plus, there's the risk you take the ball 1st and they end up stopping you on that first possession adding even more to the fan's enthusiasm.  But if you do score on that first possession, you're ahead and the race is on.  Can they keep up with Oregon once they get behind?  

[Log Haulin]

On 10/13/2023 at 9:27 AM, Mic said:

Can they keep up with Oregon once they get behind?  

This is a question absent from the conversation many so called "experts" are having. Oregon is just as capable of boat racing Fusky and UW is Ducks. Maybe more capable.

 

Az was giving Husky fits on both sides of the ball. And as a result, Husky was starting to lose composure. Even with the lead 

 

I don't know that Husky, mentally,  can play from behind. If Oregon gets up I think fusky could break down. 

 

If that happens, better keep your head cuz husky will play some dirty pool 

[Mic]

On 10/13/2023 at 9:48 AM, Log Haulin said:

This is a question absent from the conversation many so called "experts" are having. Oregon is just as capable of boat racing Fusky and UW is Ducks. Maybe more capable.

I see Odds Shark, which has the Dawgs -3, has the over/under at 66.  That's not many points for two supposedly hi-power offenses; especially with the Ducks averaging over 50/game and the Huskies 46.  

 

This is puzzling because at -3, this presupposes the Huskies are going to (somehow) hold the Ducks to under 32 or there abouts... and score at least 34 themselves.   I'd like to know how they're supposed to do that when they could only score 31 against AZ and gave up 32 to Cal.

 

Another reason why bettors should beware if they trust the oddsmakers for anything accurate. 

[Jon Joseph]

FWIW, analytics say you defer to the 2nd half.

[JB89]

This is an easy answer for me. I would always defer to the 2nd half. Close games are decided in the 2nd half. Thus, I want the ball first after halftime.

[Fannah Montana]

I like to receive in the 2nd half especially for big games. You can go on the field with your adjustments in place knowing if you need to move your offense quickly, or slow things down for a long time consuming drive. By the second half you have a real good idea where to attack the defense and should know what's working and what isn't.  A first drive score in the second half is more of a game changer than a first drive in the first half.  Plus, in an away game, I'd much prefer a quieter crowd in the second half. Coming out of the locker room with a chance to hit them hard right away is a great way to shut the fans down and put pressure on the opposing team.

 

With that said, I'd love an immediate TD to start the game in the drivers seat  7, or 8-0.