Charles Fischer Administrator No. 1 Share Posted October 24, 2023 That is a stark title, but it is true. Both teams have a conference loss, and it is doubtful that a two-loss team will make it to Vegas. We had one such elimination game earlier when UCLA played Oregon State, and now we have one in SLC on Saturday. Not trying to be too dramatic, but good-gosh....a lot is on the line for Utah and Our Beloved Ducks. 2 2 1 6 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Rosa Duck No. 2 Share Posted October 24, 2023 I like our chances here. I think we are favored by 6 points +/-. Not sure the quality backup QB has seen a defense like ours. Utah has the home field and the altitude advantage but I am sure our DUCKS are superbly conditioned. I don't think this will be a nail biter. GO DUCKS! 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 3 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Thanks, Charles. Spot On post. This will also be a playoff elimination game. One of the two teams will be a 2L playoff done after this game. The team that wins this game will get a big Halloween PO Committee rankings boost. Utah has 1 top-25 win to date and the Ducks zero. This should be a 4 Q slugfest. Our kicker situation has me feeling nervous. The line has moved up to Oregon -6.5 and up to -7 on a few books. ESPN FPI gives the Ducks a 68.7% chance to win the game. Oregon won 13,740 out of 20,000 FPI simulated games. But, as we all know, games are played by young athletes and not computers, and Rice-Eccoles Stadium is a very difficult place for a visiting team to win. GO DUCKS! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 4 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Lanning impressed by way Kyle Whittingham has managed slew of injuries this season It's not exactly breaking news to laud the caliber of coach leading Utah's football program. Ute coach Kyle Whittingham is a two-time Pac-12 Coach of the Year for a reason. His management of this year's roster has caught the attention of Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, who acknowledged the job he's done during the opening statement of Monday's press conference. "They've done a phenomenal job of utilizing their personnel," Lanning said. The two-time reigning Pac-12 champs have not been dealt an easy hand this season. Starting quarterback Cameron Rising will not play in 2023 due to a knee injury suffered in the Rose Bowl in January. Rising is one of close to a dozen Ute players ruled out for the season. "Everyone's always known that he's a great coach," Lanning said on Monday. "But the way that he's been able and his staff has been able to utilize the people they have... I know the beginning the year he spoke about the depth of his team. It's starting to really show up. He has good depth, but they're utilizing people in different ways than they anticipated when the year started and he's done a great job coaching that group. "The amount of injuries that they've dealt with and for him to be able to utilize defensive personnel on offense and shuffle positions and utilize offensive linemen at tight end, I think it's just really impressive." Lanning impressed by way Kyle Whittingham has managed slew of injuries this season 247SPORTS.COM Oregon coach Dan Lanning conveyed respect for Ute coach Kyle Whittingham and the way he's handled an injury-filled 2023 season. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayDuckDad Moderator No. 5 Share Posted October 24, 2023 On 10/24/2023 at 10:40 AM, Santa Rosa Duck said: I like our chances here. I think we are favored by 6 points +/-. Not sure the quality backup QB has seen a defense like ours. Utah has the home field and the altitude advantage but I am sure our DUCKS are superbly conditioned. I don't think this will be a nail biter. GO DUCKS! Utah has seen a quality defense, and that was in Corvallis. Utah could only muster 7 points. The Beavs stuffed the run and held the Utes to under 200 yds total offense. The UW game was predicted to be a boat race decided by a single possession, and it ended up being just that. Utah has as good a defense as UW (perhaps better even with injuries) and Santa Rosa Duck is spot on that they have a significant home field advantage in the crowd and elevation. What they don't have is a Heisman level QB and an offense loaded with weapons. A boat race it won't be. Utah does have an interesting two headed QB in Johnson/Barnes, neither who would be playing much if Rising was healthy. U$C's porous defense ultimately couldn't contain Barnes and the converted safety, Vaki. He burned both Cal and U$C for big yards, but he is no longer a secret weapon. Oregon's defense will hopefully lock down Vaki and stick an apple in the pig farmer's mouth. Utah likely can't match scores with the Ducks if the offense gets rolling. The Ducks have the personnel advantage and have already done Game Day at an intensely hostile site. They will be up for this challenge. Time to purge the curse of Rice-Eccles Stadium. 1 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Log Haulin No. 6 Share Posted October 24, 2023 This is why I love college football. Every game matters. Take a loss and you no longer control your own destiny, you start cheering for other teams to give so e help. College football is, in most cases, single elimination. From Portland State to Fusky to Beavs, every game is equally inmportant to get a win. That goes away when playoffs expand 2 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDuck Moderator No. 7 Share Posted October 24, 2023 I am glad it's a day time game and not a night time game at Utah. Also, individual handheld oxygen tanks can help with higher elevations. Gives them a boost in oxygen levels for game time situations like this. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desert Duck No. 8 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Charles - You're spot on... if the goal is to punch our ticket and get into the playoffs, then every remaining game is a single elimination game. If, however, we're good with the likes of the Liberty, Sun, Alamo, or the Poulan Weed Eater Bowl... well then, that's a different story. If on Saturday Oregon plays like they are more than capable of doing, they win a tough slugfest by something like 38-30. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 9 Share Posted October 24, 2023 I don’t think it’ll necessarily be a conference title elimination game because the PAC-12 is going to be brutal down the stretch, and you could have a bunch of 2-loss teams, but it’s almost certainly a playoff elimination game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck 68 No. 10 Share Posted October 24, 2023 After Utah, the most challenging opponent the Ducks will face is Oregon State. We need to run the table and we can. Our team has incredible talent and great character. Let's do this! 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikethehiker No. 11 Share Posted October 25, 2023 "Utah's Cinderella story is over." Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDuck Moderator No. 12 Share Posted October 25, 2023 J.D. Pickell Pick Oregon vs. Utah Preview and Prediction CDN.JWPLAYER.COM Oregon and Utah each have one loss in Pac-12 play giving their weekend showdown massive stakes. J.D. PicKell breaks down the matchup and makes his pick. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 13 Share Posted October 25, 2023 I just watched the Utah vs. USC condensed game. I think Utah's offense is good enough to potentially put up 30 points on us at their home. Yes USC defense isn't that great, but it's been playing better lately and that Vaki kid is somebody you just try to slow down but can't stop. We need to score more than 30 and I think we can. USC had decent success running the ball on them, and I think we can to. If this game does come down to one key think it would be how we do in short yardage situations. It's been our Achilles heel this year, and Utah will be tough in those situations at home. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 14 Share Posted October 25, 2023 More bad news on the injury front for Utah, but favorable on paper, for the Ducks. True Sophomore, LB Lander Barton, 6'4" and 242 pounds (size like Oregon's Jestin Jacobs, who played last Saturday and had 6 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 TFL) is out for the season. Barton chose Utah over Texas and last season was the Pac-12 defensive Freshman player of the year and was named to the Freshman All-American team. Before the injury, Barton, who did not play at Baylor, had 46 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a fumble recovery. He will be replaced by Stanford transfer, Lavani Damuni. who has played in 5 games in 2023. Tough break for the Utes with Oregon coming to SLC leading the nation at 6.8 yards on rushing attempts. ........................................................................................................................................................... Some stats on going for it on 4th down in 2023. In FBS, teams have gone for it on 4th down 24.5% of the time. The conversion rate is 51.1%, the lowest since 2015, 50.5%. But teams that convert score a TD or FG on 70.7% of possessions with 4.4 points, compared to 34.8% and 2.1 points on other drives. Going into UW, Oregon was 8-10 on 4th down attempts for the season. 0-3 at UW and in last season's loss to Oregon State, Oregon went 0-5. Better take the opponent into account and not just analytics. Since 2021, Georgia leads the FBS in 4th down conversion rate at 73.5%. Indeed, the apple does not fall far from the tree. ............................................................................................................................................................. Weather on Saturday in SLC: 46 degrees/ partly cloudy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 15 Share Posted October 25, 2023 I refuse to be the 13th commentator. (I get extra superstitious near All Hallowed Eve. ) GO DUCKS! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Log Haulin No. 16 Share Posted October 25, 2023 On 10/24/2023 at 9:14 PM, Solar said: I just watched the Utah vs. USC condensed game. I think Utah's offense is good enough to potentially put up 30 points on us at their home. Yes USC defense isn't that great, but it's been playing better lately and that Vaki kid is somebody you just try to slow down but can't stop. We need to score more than 30 and I think we can. USC had decent success running the ball on them, and I think we can to. If this game does come down to one key think it would be how we do in short yardage situations. It's been our Achilles heel this year, and Utah will be tough in those situations at home. Utes offense is averaging 25 ppg. The most they have put up all year is 34 twice v. a weak USC and a weak Cal. The most a team has scored on Ducks is 33 to the fusky and it took late game heroics by Penix to do so. Ducks are giving up on avg 16ish ppg. So you are saying that Utes broken offense is going to double ppg avg v. A healthy and hungry top 10 Duck defense? I get you can argue that Utes have a good running game. But the passing game is weak. I also get that the Ducks biggest struggle is rush defense. I will argue that a healthy dose of JJ will fix some of those problems. Rice Eccles is no joke for sure. Its a tough place to play. Ducks hang 30 on Utes minimum, utes will be luck if they drop 20 on Oregon. 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 17 Share Posted October 25, 2023 On 10/25/2023 at 12:36 PM, Log Haulin said: Utes offense is averaging 25 ppg. The most they have put up all year is 34 twice v. a weak USC and a weak Cal. The most a team has scored on Ducks is 33 to the fusky and it took late game heroics by Penix to do so. Ducks are giving up on avg 16ish ppg. So you are saying that Utes broken offense is going to double ppg avg v. A healthy and hungry top 10 Duck defense? I get you can argue that Utes have a good running game. But the passing game is weak. I also get that the Ducks biggest struggle is rush defense. I will argue that a healthy dose of JJ will fix some of those problems. Rice Eccles is no joke for sure. Its a tough place to play. Ducks hang 30 on Utes minimum, utes will be luck if they drop 20 on Oregon. Great take. Cal is 86 in D rankings. USC is 110. No wonder Wilcox's seat is hot and Lincoln has missed the last 2 SC practices with some kind of illness. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 18 Share Posted October 25, 2023 (edited) BREAKING NEWS: University of Utah demands partial ownership in whatever NFL team drafts Caleb Williams (from Facebook, just passing it along). Edited October 26, 2023 by Steven A 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 19 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Stevan A., between Charles' GIFs and comments and your great one-liners, I need a forklift to pick me up off the floor. You must have taken the 'Court Room Comedy' course in law school. The course in the syllabus right behind, 'Collect the Money Up Front.' Keep 'em comin'! 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 20 Share Posted October 26, 2023 On 10/25/2023 at 11:40 AM, Jon Joseph said: You must have taken the 'Court Room Comedy' course in law school. John Candy was my civil procedure prof. However, my post about Utah wanting partial ownership was taken from Facebook. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 21 Share Posted October 26, 2023 8 late-season potential "Spoilers" - Ducks play 3 of the 8 including Utah. Top 8 Teams Most Likely to Cause Chaos in Last Half of the College Football Season BLEACHERREPORT.COM Top 8 Teams Most Likely to Cause Chaos in Last Half of the College Football Season Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 22 Share Posted October 26, 2023 On 10/25/2023 at 9:36 AM, Log Haulin said: So you are saying that Utes broken offense is going to double ppg avg v. A healthy and hungry top 10 Duck defense? No, I'm arguing their offense is no longer broken and is capable of scoring 5 or more points above their average (per your data), for a total of 30 points or more at home. The number 1 key to this game is short yardage down and distance. I think there will be a lot of those for both teams' offenses given both defenses abilities to minimize chunk plays. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Log Haulin No. 23 Share Posted October 26, 2023 On 10/26/2023 at 11:51 AM, Solar said: No, I'm arguing their offense is no longer broken and is capable of scoring 5 or more points above their average (per your data), for a total of 30 points or more at home. The number 1 key to this game is short yardage down and distance. I think there will be a lot of those for both teams' offenses given both defenses abilities to minimize chunk plays. Ok, I respectfully disagree. Take away the horrid defenses of Cal and USC and that number drops to below 20 ppg. Utes had a better O last year and Ducks had a worse D. Utes only managed to hang 17 on the Ducks in a 20-17 loss with a hobbled Nix. A healthy Nix keeps Utes O off the field much longer and are forced to put up more points, imo. Ducks D went from bottom of college football last year to top 20 this year. Utes are still broken. Hanging 34 (season highs) on SC and Cal is in no way proof that Utes offense is no longer broken imo. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 24 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Bill Connolly's SP+ and ESPN's FPI have weighed in. As Connelly notes, the Ducks have the most efficient run game in the country. Irving and James average 158.9 yards a game. Now up to a nation-leading 7.7 yards a carry. Bo Nix: Sacked only 4 times. 78% completion rate. 19-1 TD-to-Interception. #1 in pressure rate due to excellent OL pass blocking and a quick release. The Oregon D is SP+ ranked 31, up from 74 in 2022. Oregon has allowed only 18 passes of 20+ yards. The Utes are ranked 65 in rushing success but even with the improvement, the Oregon D is ranked 78 in rushing success allowed. With the advantage at QB, if Oregon can hold down the Utah run game it will not be beaten by the Utah passing attack. SP+ - OREGON by 6.3. FPI - OREGON by 7.1. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
