What a Weekend Coming Up!

[Mic]

I can't be certain but I'd say that this coming weekend there are more close games on the schedule than anytime this season, so far, including at least two games that are dead-even.  Usually, each weekend will see a few games with odds favoring one team over another by less than a TD but nothing like this one (based on the latest odds from Odds Shark).  If I counted it correctly, there are 35 (!) games with odds of <7 pts for the favorite, about half by < 4 pts.  

 

The Ducks are favored -24.5 currently over Cal.  This seems too high for a Justin Wilcox team but given the way the Ducks handled Utah, Odds Shark might be right on this.  (Sure glad I don't bet large sums of $ on these things).  Over the last 10 games the average pt. margin has been ~15 pts, with 2 Oregon losses.

 

What game(s) have your attention this weekend?  Besides Oregon-Cal.      GO OREGON!

Edited November 1, 2023 by Mic

[Annie]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:43 PM, Mic said:

...

 

The Ducks are favored -24.5 currently over Cal.  This seems too high for a Justin Wilcox team but given the way the Ducks handled Utah, Odds Shark might be right on this.  (Sure glad I don't bet large sums of $ on these things).  Over the last 10 games the average pt. margin has been ~15 pts, with 2 Oregon losses.

 

....

That spread surprises me a bit too, simply because I figure it's not easy to beat anyone by that much. With a forecast for rain on Saturday, it will be interesting to see if that will make a difference for either team.

[David Marsh]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:43 PM, Mic said:

The Ducks are favored -24.5 currently over Cal.  This seems too high for a Justin Wilcox team but given the way the Ducks handled Utah, Odds Shark might be right on this.  (Sure glad I don't bet large sums of $ on these things).  Over the last 10 games the average pt. margin has been ~15 pts, with 2 Oregon losses.

Good news for us is that Cal has a similar style of play as Utah... But doesn't have the offensive linemen but probably a better quarterback. 

 

24 points is a lot! But I think the Ducks can get it done. 

 

WSU beat the line because Oregon really took their foot off the gas in the last few minutes. 

[Log Haulin]

Utes and Auburn held Cal to two scores. I think the spread should be higher. It this ends in a shutout it wouldn't surprise me. 

[ColoradoDuck]

When was the last time OBD shut out a conference opponent? Wasn't it Cal? 

[ColoradoDuck]

Nope, it was 2012, we shut out Arizona. 

[Jon Joseph]

GO, OK St, K State, LSU, Va Tech, Mizzou, and dare I say it, UW.

 

Puddles, Oregon needs the Pac-12 champ game dues.

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/1/2023 at 9:25 PM, ColoradoDuck said:

Nope, it was 2012, we shut out Arizona. 

Oregon will not shut out Cal. 24 or fewer points for the Golden Bears equals a trap-game win.

 

From here on out, Just Win Puddles!

Edited November 2, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[HappyToBeADuck]

This will be the strongest defensive unit that Cal will face this year. The Duck D Is big, long, mean and aggresive....

 

As long as the Duck D is focused and not full of themselves from the Ute game then Cal will struggle to score 17 points.

 

The Duck O, if they play clean should score 42 plus on Cal. That covers the spread.

 

Only the Ducks can beat the Ducks. I hope the Ducks prove Klatt and Coherd correct....

 

Go Ducks.....

[Mic]

On 11/1/2023 at 3:47 PM, Annie said:

That spread surprises me a bit too, simply because I figure it's not easy to beat anyone by that much. With a forecast for rain on Saturday, it will be interesting to see if that will make a difference for either team.

My guess is the running game will feature more in this one than the last - partly due to Cal's run defense not as good as Utah's and partly due to the effects of rain.  But the Duck's bread and butter has been the balance between the run & pass.  Ought to be quite interesting to see how it shakes out.

[Mic]

The TT-TCU game and the Duke-Wake Forest games yesterday proved the oddsmakers right - and both games were close and fun to watch.  There's good games all over the place tomorrow and almost all of them are predicted to be close.  Oregon is one of the few important teams to be favored big, but then we've been discussing that on another topic: Here's How: Oregon CAN Lose to Cal

 

Easily the best weekend of the season so far, after the 1st one of course.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Mic

[Desert Duck]

On 11/1/2023 at 3:47 PM, Annie said:

That spread surprises me a bit too, simply because I figure it's not easy to beat anyone by that much. With a forecast for rain on Saturday, it will be interesting to see if that will make a difference for either 

 I'm afraid I'm letting my emotions get the best of me this week as I've predicted Oregon 44-14.

 

I'm afraid the fan "fanatic" might now be getting the best of me. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Desert Duck

[Desert Duck]

Need/want:

- KSU over Texas

- LSU over Bama

- Mutts over Trojans

- A miracle Pitt over FSU

 

[Log Haulin]

On 11/3/2023 at 4:08 PM, Desert Duck said:

 I'm afraid I'm letting my emotions get the best of me this week as I've predicted Oregon 44-14.

 

I'm afraid the fan "fanatic" might now be getting the best of me. 

Good, I hope the "fanatic" in you takes over for the next month.  This team is very good. The vibe isn't anything the Duck fanatics have experienced, ever! 

 

RELEASE THE FANATIC!!

[Jon Joseph]

LSU at Bama is a must-watch PO game for Ducks fans.

 

LSU wins and Bama and LSU both have the 4-team PO kiss of death 2 losses. And FSU gets a big SOS boost.

 

FSU in a conference with only 2 ranked teams is going to ACC-way its win into the final 4. This 8 conference game stuff has to end. The committee best pays attention to the conference games SOS in 2024. 

 

Will it do so?

[Solar]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:59 PM, Jon Joseph said:

LSU at Bama is a must-watch PO game for Ducks fans.

 

LSU wins and Bama and LSU both have the 4-team PO kiss of death 2 losses. And FSU gets a big SOS boost.

 

FSU in a conference with only 2 ranked teams is going to ACC-way its win into the final 4. This 8 conference game stuff has to end. The committee best pays attention to the conference games SOS in 2024. 

 

Will it do so?

I agree the biggest threat to our playoff hopes is Bama.

 

Everyone keeps talking about LSU getting in as the first two loss team, but not over a one loss PAC12 team they won't.

 

But a 1 loss Bama SEC champ, vs a 1 loss PAC12 championship? Scary. Of course Georgia taking care of business in the SEC Championship game solves that problem.

Edited November 4, 2023 by Solar

[JB89]

Besides Oregon and Cal, the game that has my attention is Washington at USC. Since both teams cannot get a loss I will hope for a Washington loss. I believe Oregon will make the playoffs as long as we win out. It should not matter who we play in the conference championship game.

 

My first priority is for Oregon to make the playoffs. My second priority is for Washington to not make the playoffs. Thus, I hope Washington gets a loss today and a second loss to Utah or OSU. 

 

A USC win today will make next week a much bigger game and hopefully a much better kick off time on FOX. I do not want to take a chance of having a 7:30pm kick off next Saturday. 

[David Marsh]

On 11/1/2023 at 6:21 PM, ColoradoDuck said:

When was the last time OBD shut out a conference opponent? Wasn't it Cal? 

Arizona in 2012. 

 

Zona couldn't get close to the end zone... But they couldn't make any red Zone field goals either. 

[woundedknees]

Notre Dame / Clemson looks as if it may be a, "who has the ball last" contest.

[HappyToBeADuck]

For me, Oregon's best shot to receive an invite to the CFP, runs thru an undefeated putrid husky team. This season it does matter who our Ducks play in Vegas. The higher our opponent is ranked the better.

 

Follow my empty thought process! Viewer warning, my post involves the huskies winning games.

 

Assuming all top teams win out and rankings stay the same. When tOSU and Michigan play, the loser will drop out of top 4.

 

An unbeaten washington would move into the top 4. Ducks will potentially move to #5.  When the Ducks beat the huskies in the title game, that #4 spot will be theirs.

 

If Bama beats The Real Dawgs in the SEC title game (hope not), then it gets dicey. Both teams finish 12-1. However, the Ducks will be a conference champ. Georgia would not. Georgia needs to eliminate Bama feom the equatio

 

Lets say Michigan beats tOSU in the regular season but tOSU gets revenge in BIG title game Or vice versa! Both teams finish 12-1. The loser is not a conference champ but the Ducks have a title.

 

I dont feel a 1 loss little big 12 champ or ACC flag football champ at 12-1 will trump OBD's at 12-1

 

The committee will not think less of the Ducks when they win out. They will just enhance how they are viewed now as the best 1 loss team in the land.

 

Strength of schedule may be the tie breaker. The invite rests on a thin, subjective line skewered by perception. The PAC title game must matter and the matchup epic. A rematch of the best game of the year would be perfect..

 

The BCS (mostly biased BS) and CFP committees have placed great value in revenge victories.

 

IMHO, playing a 10th ranked or worse team in the PAC title game may allow other 1 loss champs to jump them. The Ducks need only beat the huskies by 1 point to get an invite. A close game, against a lesser opponent?????

 

I know it is sacrilege to want those s...birds to win any game, however a win over a top 4, unbeaten husky team will land OBD's a CFP spot.

 

Love to read some opposing views from this great forum group.

 

BUT FIRST THINGS FIRST. BEAT CAL!

 

Go Ducks......

[Charles Fischer]

Happy...you stated it perfectly.  It works for best if the Huskies win--even if we have a late-night slot next week.  The Playoff spot is more important, so cheer for the Dogs?

 

If if I have to hold my nose...