FishDuck Article Administrator No. 1 Share Posted March 6 Initially sending out signals they were considering leaving the NCAA outright, the Power Two Conferences have been playing hardball in this year’s negotiations for the second stage of expanding the College Football Playoffs. Fans, the media and coaches alike howled at the audacity the leaders of the Power Two conferences displayed last week. Mr. FishDuck has been thinking to buy ... Will The SEC and The Big Ten Ruin College Football? | FishDuck FISHDUCK.COM Initially sending out signals they were considering leaving the NCAA outright, the Power Two Conferences have been playing hardball in this... 2 Two Sites: FishDuck and the Our Beloved Ducks forum, The only "Forum with Decorum!" And All-Volunteer? What a wonderful community of Duck fans! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikethehiker No. 2 Share Posted March 6 Thanks for the great article Mike! I appreciated your comment about the ACC possibly being the only conference with any prospect of winning a national title outside the Power Two. It's been clear that power has been consolidating towards a few programs even within these conferences. This has always been true, but with NIL, the transfer portal, and expanded playoffs, these top teams are able to build systems that ensure their power is entrenched for much longer periods of time. The introduction of the 85 scholarship limit instituted a quasi salary cap that led to the golden age of college football parity and popularity. NIL and transfer portal have given top programs new levers to horde top talent and avoid any lapses of success. Expanding the playoffs to 12 teams ensures the super powers can lose 1-3 games and still win championships. For teams on the outside looking up, you are not going to beat 3-4 NFL caliber teams in a playoff. You could have the best season in school history only to smashed in the 1st round of a playoffs. So at what point do those teams throw in the towel and opt for a new system that reverts to elevating the student in student-athlete? Right now, it looks like the Power 2 and ACC are strong in number, but the likes of Rutgers, Maryland, Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois, and Arkansas just have to hang on and enjoy the revenue. They don't have to win anything. If Oregon wasn't top tier, I'd probably have thrown in the towel on college football. The only way to make our voices heard as fans is to turn off the TV. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrw Moderator No. 3 Share Posted March 6 Currently, there's a enormous money bubble that's inflating, among other things, big-time college football. When that bubble bursts, which is surely will, things will look much different. Different how I'm not smart enough to know, but what we have now is not sustainable. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JabbaNoBargain No. 4 Share Posted March 6 (edited) Interesting stuff! This may be pretty obvious, but I think it’s good to revisit the results of the last 10 years with a 4-team playoff. Only 15 different schools appeared in the 4-team playoff. It gets more consolidated when you realize only 6 different schools won the playoff, with 80% coming from the big2, SEC(6), B1G(2), and Clemson (2). So the better question might be, “did they already ruin college football”. If ruined means “very few teams outside the big 2 winning the playoff”, that’s already been achieved. I think every suggested expansion format will help on the variety of schools front. Edited March 6 by JabbaNoBargain 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 5 Share Posted March 6 (edited) Here is typical irrelevant Congressional outrage. A body that could have offered the NCAA a shield from antitrust and other litigation and failed to do so. Players profiting off their own NIL, not only in football but across the board in both men's and women's sports have ruined college athletics. Come On Man! US Rep blames greed of several CFB programs for 'ruining the sport' with NIL FLYWAREAGLE.COM US Rep Brendan Boyle, a democrat from Pennsylvania, accused a few college football programs for ruining the sport -- this in response to the subcommittee of the Edited March 6 by Jon Joseph Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 6 Share Posted March 6 Thanks, Mike. Always appreciate your takes and thoughts. In 2023, both attendance and viewership were up for CFB. NIL and the portal gave the playoff committee a 5 for 4 spots nightmare that had FSU waking up screaming. A perfect send-off for the BCS x 2 that masqueraded as a 'Playoff.' With the demise of the Pac-12, the format for the 2024 and 2025 playoffs is screwed up. Higher-ranked teams will be seeded lower than lesser-ranked teams. You do not see this in the CBB tourney which is one reason the format for the next two seasons will not be the playoff format come 2026 and thereafter. Why are things moving so fast? Because things are out of the control of the NCAA and the conference commissioners. Court and regulatory decisions are forcing change to occur at Mercury-like speed. This plus the creation of a Power 2 that needs other conferences only to avoid litigation. 2031 for the ACC? I give the ACC as-is three more years if that. Clemson, FSU, UNC, and a 4th join the SEC. Notre Dame and another team deemed worthy by the B1G powers-that-be (this includes Fox) join the B1G. The B12 does not have a team with a Blue Chip Roster. One B12 team finished in the 2024 recruiting rankings, Texas Tech at No. 24. Again, other than to avoid litigation, why would the B1G and SEC need the ACC, B12, and G5? Why 2 spots for the ACC and the B12 in the playoff format the B1G/SEC have proposed come 2026? Will the ACC and the B12 have more than one team in the field come the 2024 playoff? With the G5 having a spot and Notre Dame on the scene, probably not. College football in 2024 is a capitalistic enterprise. In the Darwinian world of capitalism, the big fish swallow the little fish. Do I personally like this? No. I'd rather go back to the pre-BCS days, with a 10-team Pac-10, having to be more than mediocre to play in a bowl game, intense regional rivalries, and collegiality among competitors. Not happening. On the other hand, do I want to go back to only one college football game being broadcast on Saturday? Heck No! Thanks again, Mike. Direct pay-for-play, negotiations with a players' union, and an 'official' Super League with anti-trust and other protection against liability afforded by Congress are coming and will, like it or not, be here sooner than we can expect. No matter where CFB 'ends up', Puddles will have a nesting place, a fine-feathered one. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike West No. 7 Share Posted March 6 On 3/6/2024 at 9:06 AM, mikethehiker said: Thanks for the great article Mike! I appreciated your comment about the ACC possibly being the only conference with any prospect of winning a national title outside the Power Two. It's been clear that power has been consolidating towards a few programs even within these conferences. This has always been true, but with NIL, the transfer portal, and expanded playoffs, these top teams are able to build systems that ensure their power is entrenched for much longer periods of time. The introduction of the 85 scholarship limit instituted a quasi salary cap that led to the golden age of college football parity and popularity. NIL and transfer portal have given top programs new levers to horde top talent and avoid any lapses of success. Expanding the playoffs to 12 teams ensures the super powers can lose 1-3 games and still win championships. For teams on the outside looking up, you are not going to beat 3-4 NFL caliber teams in a playoff. You could have the best season in school history only to smashed in the 1st round of a playoffs. So at what point do those teams throw in the towel and opt for a new system that reverts to elevating the student in student-athlete? Right now, it looks like the Power 2 and ACC are strong in number, but the likes of Rutgers, Maryland, Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois, and Arkansas just have to hang on and enjoy the revenue. They don't have to win anything. If Oregon wasn't top tier, I'd probably have thrown in the towel on college football. The only way to make our voices heard as fans is to turn off the TV. I believe NIL formalized a practice the Blue Bloods had been using for decades. The Transfer Portal allows them to consolidate power further. I'm impressed Ole Miss exploited both to their advantage. I certainly feel for the likes of Utah and North Carolina- teams in the Second Tier of the P4 conferences. Personally, I believe the latest P2 propos is generous. It's the only way I see the Big 12 getting two teams in the playoffs, while Clemson and FSU may occasionally crash the party if they stay in the ACC. I think it's time to add two more divisions to College football, each with their own playoffs. I fear the TV execs won't pony up enough to allow the teams currently listed as D1 programs to continue fielding football teams. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike West No. 8 Share Posted March 6 On 3/6/2024 at 10:35 AM, JabbaNoBargain said: Interesting stuff! This may be pretty obvious, but I think it’s good to revisit the results of the last 10 years with a 4-team playoff. Only 15 different schools appeared in the 4-team playoff. It gets more consolidated when you realize only 6 different schools won the playoff, with 80% coming from the big2, SEC(6), B1G(2), and Clemson (2). So the better question might be, “did they already ruin college football”. If ruined means “very few teams outside the big 2 winning the playoff”, that’s already been achieved. I think every suggested expansion format will help on the variety of schools front. Excellent point. But for Michigan winning the Title this year, one could also say the SEC has pushed their weight around considerably. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike West No. 9 Share Posted March 6 On 3/6/2024 at 10:10 AM, jrw said: Currently, there's a enormous money bubble that's inflating, among other things, big-time college football. When that bubble bursts, which is surely will, things will look much different. Different how I'm not smart enough to know, but what we have now is not sustainable. I've been feeling that way since COVID hit us. I have no idea how the G5 are going to field teams in the near future. As elitist as I am, I always thought it was cool to watch kids that killed it in high school, but weren't good enough to play for the Blue Bloods could still play- and be on TV! 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike West No. 10 Share Posted March 6 On 3/6/2024 at 11:15 AM, Jon Joseph said: Thanks again, Mike. Direct pay-for-play, negotiations with a players' union, and an 'official' Super League with anti-trust and other protection against liability afforded by Congress are coming and will, like it or not, be here sooner than we can expect. You're spot on Jon! And I agree, coming sooner than we think. Not sure this is going to be good for college football though. I love the idea of seeing the Blue Bloods squaring off each week, but then we already have that: the NFL. I personally only watch the elite matchups and the playoffs. I don't want that to happen to college football. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 11 Share Posted March 6 Mike, I want to thank you for a provocative topic and guest article contributed. You wrote years back for us, and you still got-it! I am still torn about whether the B1G-SEC thing is a bad thing, because we need some checks and balances to protect our interests at Oregon. (I know that is a foreign concept due our years in the Pac-12) We do accept guest articles written in an email or on a Word Document and sent to charles@fishduck.com, and I do want to thank Mike, but in particular Jon Joseph, Don Marsh, and Mike Whitty. So much talent in this collective group of Oregon fans! Guest Articles: Don't be Afraid to Try It! 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Ducky No. 12 Share Posted March 6 IMHO college football was ruined long ago because of poor leadership and greedy leadership. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 13 Share Posted March 6 (edited) Charles, thanks for the thanks and the showing of the Bowdoin College mascot, the Polar Bear! Tigers, Lions, Wildcats, get lost! The Polar Bear's effort at ball balancing resembles how Bowdoin plays football. Thank goodness for ice hockey. Edited March 6 by Jon Joseph Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 14 Share Posted March 6 From the B1G Tradition site. The B1G 10: Big Ten, SEC send Playoff message to everybody: Accept … or else SATURDAYTRADITION.COM The B1G and SEC want guaranteed bids and seeds in the Playoff. If they don't get it, they could form their own playoff. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW Approved No. 15 Share Posted March 6 I agree with Charles. As long as Our Beloved Ducks are in the big leagues, college football is not ruined. With all the talk of a 14 team playoff, that sounds like the B1G and SEC are trying to throw the other conferences a life line. Considering how much power the B1G and SEC have, a 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, etc model seems more than generous. I would advise them to jump at it. Go Ducks. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckster No. 16 Share Posted March 6 Great stuff Mike. Some random thoughts: I agree that the most recent BIG/SEC playoff proposal was fair and generous given the dominance of those two conferences over the past 15 years, and the growing position of power they will hold going forward. ACC and Big 12 need only to look at the demise of the Pac 12 to see where ego and hubris gets you. Take the deal fella's, it's the best you could hope for. We're only at the beginning stages of the total restructure of CFB. The NIL and subsequent demise of the NCAA has changed everything. Until there are some agreed upon guidelines and overall governance installed its every man/school/conference for themselves. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Some form off a future Super Conference, top 30 or top 40 is virtually inevitable. I like the concept of annual relegation/ promotion per the Premiership in English football, though don't know how it might be implemented. In that type format what happens to the 90 or so other DI programs that can't compete financially with the Supers but are currently supporting football? Multiple tiers? Dramatically scaled back funding? Program elimination? The resulting carnage will be enormous . 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JabbaNoBargain No. 17 Share Posted March 6 (edited) On 3/6/2024 at 2:31 PM, Duckster said: Great stuff Mike. Some random thoughts: I agree that the most recent BIG/SEC playoff proposal was fair and generous given the dominance of those two conferences over the past 15 years, and the growing position of power they will hold going forward. ACC and Big 12 need only to look at the demise of the Pac 12 to see where ego and hubris gets you. Take the deal fella's, it's the best you could hope for. We're only at the beginning stages of the total restructure of CFB. The NIL and subsequent demise of the NCAA has changed everything. Until there are some agreed upon guidelines and overall governance installed its every man/school/conference for themselves. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Some form off a future Super Conference, top 30 or top 40 is virtually inevitable. I like the concept of annual relegation/ promotion per the Premiership in English football, though don't know how it might be implemented. In that type format what happens to the 90 or so other DI programs that can't compete financially with the Supers but are currently supporting football? Multiple tiers? Dramatically scaled back funding? Program elimination? The resulting carnage will be enormous . Lot of good points and agree with almost everything outside of the last paragraph, this isn’t European soccer, relegation will probably never happen. What could happen is a more formal division of the top current level. Top 64 (criteria might be impossible to agree to) become the highest level with 4 divisions of 16 regionally oriented teams. Those not in the top 64 set up something similar for schools that don’t care to, or are unable to pay their assistant pool $10M, etc. Edited March 6 by JabbaNoBargain Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nevada Dawg No. 18 Share Posted March 7 On 3/6/2024 at 11:23 AM, Mike West said: You're spot on Jon! And I agree, coming sooner than we think. Not sure this is going to be good for college football though. I love the idea of seeing the Blue Bloods squaring off each week, but then we already have that: the NFL. I personally only watch the elite matchups and the playoffs. I don't want that to happen to college football. As for that happening to college football, I very strongly believe that your fears will be warranted. And for fans of teams outside of the Power 2, what's to keep them in the game (and larger viewing public) if their guys have little chance at ever winning the brass ring. I really do fear for college football and will say again that calling it "College" football is a misnomer. It has basically become minor league pro football, with the Power 2 being equivalent to Triple A in baseball, the other two former P5 conferences filling the Double A slots, and the others falling somewhere in the lower minor league levels.The NFL has to love it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike West No. 19 Share Posted March 7 On 3/6/2024 at 10:31 PM, Nevada Dawg said: As for that happening to college football, I very strongly believe that your fears will be warranted. And for fans of teams outside of the Power 2, what's to keep them in the game (and larger viewing public) if their guys have little chance at ever winning the brass ring. I really do fear for college football and will say again that calling it "College" football is a misnomer. It has basically become minor league pro football, with the Power 2 being equivalent to Triple A in baseball, the other two former P5 conferences filling the Double A slots, and the others falling somewhere in the lower minor league levels.The NFL has to love it. That's a very good analogy. Someone trolled Nick Saban last night, claiming he couldn't handle the new paradigm. I bit back- explaining some kids are going to ruin the game for a while lot of other kids- and Saban realized it more than most. I don't think 17 million people are going to be watching Ohio State versus Michigan in the future. That golden goose is going to get cooked!!! Not sure the TV execs (And the P2) are looking that far ahead. I know the players aren't. What a shame. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MicroBurst61 No. 20 Share Posted March 7 On 3/6/2024 at 10:31 PM, Nevada Dawg said: It has basically become minor league pro football, with the Power 2 being equivalent to Triple A in baseball, the other two former P5 conferences filling the Double A slots, and the others falling somewhere in the lower minor league levels.The NFL has to love it Maayybbeee the NFL will love it. The "new" college super leagues.....er...NFL-lite may soon be able to compete on several levels with the NFL without the restricting structure that has been put in place, over the decades, to promote "parity" in the NFL. In the NFL-Lite there is no salary cap. (Unless you consider roster limits a sort of a cap). No drafting or draft position based on previous years success or failure, just throw enough NIL money at a player you want or need and you get em. No negotiations regarding trading of players or even coaches with other teams. (Looking at you Sean Miller and da Broncos). No player contracts to honor or renegotiate. No "players union" or needs for collective bargaining agreements. No "begging for public funds" for new stadiums or facilities (colleges already had those set up in the name of "public higher education). And don't get me started on all of the individual state and federal laws, regulations, and other "administrative" details that arise between how a "professional" vs an "amateur" athlete is perceived. (Didn't Oregon legislators just pass a bill regarding said matters?) Point is NFL is King! Believe me when I tell you that those powers that be are watching and planning out their future based on the NFL-Lite, staying as...NFL-lite, and should only exist to feed the bigger and badder revenue monster that is the NFL. Once NFL-lite feels emboldened by any and all successes it may have and starts to view itself as an "alternative" rather than a farm or minor league system to the NFL; they will find out the hard and expensive legal way that you don't mess with Billionaires status quo league. Careful where you tread "College-NFLite league! There is Definitely a Bigger Fish than you can ever be and you step on their toes and you will be swallowed up faster than the changes that have been made to get to a NFLite league. Careful for what you wish for. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike West No. 21 Share Posted March 7 (edited) On 3/7/2024 at 8:44 AM, MicroBurst61 said: Careful where you tread "College-NFLite league! There is Definitely a Bigger Fish than you can ever be and you step on their toes and you will be swallowed up faster than the changes that have been made to get to a NFLite league. Careful for what you wish for. Well, I believe the players and the NIL collectives are driving that bus... The players are getting greedy, and boosters are falling into bidding wars for, in most cases unproven players. Straight from the NFL playbook. And players are going to stop performing soon enough. Even if it costs them a healthy NFL contract. Worse, the Power 2 aren't really considering the players as they manuever through the playoff process. So I agree with you. The NFL is already chaffed at the playoffs starting the first week the big boys play on Saturdays... Edited March 7 by Mike West Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kamikaze Kid Moderator No. 22 Share Posted March 7 It seems to me that the SEC would like to be an NFL minor league and the BIG is doing everything they can to keep up with the SEC which sets them in the same direction.The biggest problem with this point of view is that by being a minor league, you're know longer a top banana. Dos anybody know who won the last AAA World Series? How about who one the G League Championship? Canadian Football League champion? No? This is what happens when you are a minor league. Nobody outside of the immediate fan base will care. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 23 Share Posted March 7 On 3/7/2024 at 12:12 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said: It seems to me that the SEC would like to be an NFL minor league and the BIG is doing everything they can to keep up with the SEC which sets them in the same direction.The biggest problem with this point of view is that by being a minor league, you're know longer a top banana. Dos anybody know who won the last AAA World Series? How about who one the G League Championship? Canadian Football League champion? No? This is what happens when you are a minor league. Nobody outside of the immediate fan base will care. Great thoughts. I do not think that CFB would drop in popularity to the level of AAA baseball or anywhere close. CFB is well behind the NFL in viewership, largely because the NFL promoted the NFL as a business, a business you could wager on, and did not push a phony 'student-athlete' model. Nevertheless, CFB today is a much-watched sport and I do not believe this would change with the elimination of 'body bag games' in favor of the top programs playing one another every weekend. Agreements with a player's union will stabilize CFB rosters. Pay-for-play from a limited number of schools, 32 to 40, will likely lead to an HS draft and a reduction in CFB coaches' salaries. Alabama sponsored by the NY Giants vs Auburn sponsored by the NY Jets will sell out and be viewed by millions of fans. But, that's just my POV and your POV could be spot on. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
