Charles Fischer Administrator No. 1 Share Posted July 18 The title above and the article was written by Max Olson of The Athletic. I cannot copy the entire article, and would encourage you to join for only a buck a month, but below is jarring conclusions, that even the most crazed fan such as I--could not have anticipated. ---------------------------------------------------------- My first objective upon downloading EA Sports’ College Football 25 was a fact-finding mission. I simulated the upcoming and unprecedented 2024 season in Dynasty mode to find out how the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff and this new era for conference realignment played out. And then I started over and simulated the season over and over again until I had 25 seasons of data. I did not play any games, I did not alter the default settings or rosters and I did not get much sleep. After creating 25 Dynasty files, an Xbox notification urged me to stop. Still, sicko mission accomplished. Just like Doctor Strange on Titan, I went forward in time to see all the possible outcomes of the coming conflicts: conference races, Heisman winners, CFP brackets, even the coaching carousel. Here’s what I learned. Twenty-five Attempts, 61 Playoff Teams The Playoff expanding from four teams to 12 this fall means more programs across the sport get a real opportunity to enter the national championship race. Over the course of the 25 simulations of this upcoming season, 61 different FBS teams made at least one CFP appearance. The 12 teams that most frequently earned playoff appearances: Michigan (23), Oregon (22), Georgia (17), Ohio State (17), Texas A&M (13), Alabama (12), Utah (11), Miami (10), Clemson (nine), Kansas State (nine), Notre Dame (nine) and Penn State (nine). In the end, there were 46 teams that made multiple CFP appearances in the game. Texas Tech, Nebraska, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Iowa State and Syracuse are all on that list. Colorado did not make a CFP in any of the simulations despite having the best QB in the game and a top-20 roster. In fact, Shedeur Sanders only finished in the top five in Heisman voting once. Nine different teams won Big 12 titles over the 25 sims, but the Buffs weren’t one of them. There were several more curious snubs among the 23 Power 4 programs that never made the Playoff. Iowa earned zero bids despite its excellent defense. TCU came up short every time, and the computer frequently fired its coach. Indiana actually played in multiple Big Ten title games but could not break through to the Playoff. And oddly enough, UCLA did win one Big Ten title yet was left out that year. The battle for bids in the SEC was rather remarkable to track. Fourteen of its 16 members achieved playoff berths over the 25 simulations, but would you have guessed it would be Texas A&M earning the second-most? Texas and Ole Miss got in seven times each and never managed to win it all. Missouri made it to three CFPs. LSU only got in twice. And believe it or not, the SEC emerged with just five national champions over the 25 simulations. Oregon is the Best Team in the Game One clear conclusion after all those simulations: The Oregon Ducks are extremely tough to beat in CFB25. The newest member of the Big Ten won 15 conference titles in its 25 attempts, went all the way to the CFP title game a dozen times and won nine national championships. That’s not a big surprise to anyone who has already played with super senior QB Dillon Gabriel and his wide receiver trio of Evan Stewart, Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden. The Ducks’ offensive dominance shows up over and over again when you skim through the CFP box scores and end-of-season statistics in these simulations. Gabriel frequently puts up more than 5,000 yards and 50 TDs in this offense and became a Heisman Trophy finalist in eight different seasons. Thanks to the addition of Oregon, the Big Ten secured 15 of the 25 national titles. Many of those seasons came down to Oregon-Michigan, Oregon-Ohio State or Michigan-Ohio State facing off three times between the regular season, Big Ten title game and Playoff. Michigan, Ohio State and Georgia each secured three national titles over the 25 simulations. Alabama and Clemson won one apiece. Is THIS the year? 1 2 1 1 1 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 2 Share Posted July 18 LOVE IT! But seeing BC, Syracuse, and Iowa State on the PO list in this universe and not somewhere else in the muti-verse kind of dampers my enthusiasm. Hey Max, get a life? Thank you Charles for making the effort to copy much of the article. At OBD the kudos keep on comin'. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 3 Share Posted July 18 (edited) This actually extremely noteworthy if true. We just reset to the next generation of kids where "Oregon was my dream school growing up. I remember playing the game as the Ducks and always dominating." We've got as many as 12 years ahead now to cash in this check. We don't have to worry the recruits won't remember and idolize DAT and Mariota and James anymore with our current relevance, swag, and this video game. Edited July 18 by Solar 1 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utki No. 4 Share Posted July 18 I would like Oregon to beat UW a few times before I get all worked up over our alleged coming dominance. 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 5 Share Posted July 19 In these 3 simulations by Yahoo, Oregon is PO 3 for 3. 'EA Sports College Football 25' predicts the 2024 season SPORTS.YAHOO.COM Here are 10 takeaways from the first-ever Yahoo Sports "EA Sports College Football" simulation. The sims Ducks Wire is doing on the Oregon schedule are IMO suspect. Boise will not stay as close as predicted, 3 point game until late in the 4th Q and Danno is not going to hang 80 on the Beavers, even though the SOBs deserve it. The week after OR ST is an off week. If the game is over by the start of the 3rd Q, I think Danno will get as much rest for his starters as he can and get Dante and other youngsters playing time. Ducks Wire is using 10-minute quarters in its sims which takes one-third of game time off the clock. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 6 Share Posted July 19 I feel I owe an apology to OBD members. After reading my earlier comment it comes off as surly which I did not intend. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nevada Dawg No. 7 Share Posted July 19 I get a kick out of these "projecton" exercises which, if nothing else, aptly illustrate that the offseason is too damn long. How these things come out depend heavily on assumptions made and on little that is objectively verifiable. This little exercise is gratifying for those of us who follow the Ducks and are fun to read. But...remember that it is another in a long line of mental masturbations that make their appearance every off season. I know, I'm no fun. But THANKFULLY, Fall camp is about ready to start and we will soon be into the data that really matter--what actually happens between the lines. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 8 Share Posted July 19 On 7/18/2024 at 10:24 PM, Nevada Dawg said: I get a kick out of these "projecton" exercises which, if nothing else, aptly illustrate that the offseason is too damn long. How these things come out depend heavily on assumptions made and on little that is objectively verifiable. The 2024 season will only happen once. And injuries are so critical and no amount of simulation can predict how they work out. A team might come out flat and play below their potential and that might cost a game. It's all human and simulations are fun but you're right they really can't predict a whole lot other than the Ducks should be a good team like how Ohio State and Georgia should be good teams. This is basically making the paper rosters play out. I guess it's good to know that the Ducks have a good roster on paper. 2 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drake Moderator No. 9 Share Posted July 19 Opponents will have Oregon circled on their schedules. We will be getting everyone’s best efforts. A win against OBD elevates every opposing team based upon the preseason rankings. I love that we are getting solid reviews and projections. However, you can’t win any games in July. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cartm25 No. 10 Share Posted July 19 Your topic title had me until I read it was a simulation of a video game . . . Still worth hoping for. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MicroBurst61 No. 11 Share Posted July 19 On 7/19/2024 at 7:22 AM, Drake said: Opponents will have Oregon circled on their schedules. We will be getting everyone’s best efforts. How the times have changed. Use to be that the Oregon Ducks was the team "circling opponents" upcoming on their schedules, as a team to beat for a "signature" win against a blueblood. NOW we are that team that EVERYONE would Love to beat for THE "quality" win of the season. What a time to be a Duck! 's! 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augduck No. 12 Share Posted July 19 Jon Landau would like a word with Max Olsen- Jon wrote this in 1974. "I saw rock and roll's future and its name is Bruce Springsteen!," 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck No. 13 Share Posted July 19 Miami in the playoffs ten times, really. They barely have a winning record over the last 5 years, and are on their way to not having won a bowl game in 10 years. This seems to be recruiting numbers based, not based on reality. I suppose that is all we are getting right now so this projection is about right. I'll put $10k on the under for Miami, I need a little more in my retirement account. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
