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Mike West

Oregon Analysis: I Might Be Changing My Mind...

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Well well well,

 

I got to see some extended footage that has my heart aflutter even though my mind says no.

 

The eyeball test says no, we are not elite one bit. But...I saw some flashes I didn't expect watching the ESPN Gamecast description of the game( instead of the real game).

 

First of all, I can see why DL thinks the OL can be fixed.  They were massively experimenting. I saw at least five different OL lineups.  Nothing super encouraging, but now I understand why the offense looks so disjointed.  There were enough blown assignments, that a mean and nasty professor would go pure sadistic on "student Lanning ".

 

That tells me they feel confident enough to horse around against a much inferior team to find the dudes that are going to play come conference time.  That might have been a huge mistake, but now I get it- Lanning is looking for six or seven guys on the OL that can get the team to the playoffs and beyond.

 

The defense.  My biggest concern - which I felt after the Spring Game - are the inside linebackers.  They're not big enough and they're not fast enough.  They do a decent job in spite of it, but I think OBD need more NFL caliber talent.  I'd put Jackson inside, but that's not going to happen.  He IS prototype though, like we see at Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State every year.  

 

I think the secondary is better, but the guys still cover the QB instead of their assignments.  Muhammad got beat for a TD because he didn't get the safety help he deserved.  The safety is supposed to assist on that olay- the QB had no business having an option to throw to that post corner route.  The safety should have been there on the post part of it alone, which would have allowed Muhammad to seal off the corner part of the route.  That can be fixed, but the coaches need to change their philosophy on how to cover receivers.

 

Some people have derided Whittington a bit.  He's fine.  He's not as big as James, so he can't break tackles as well.  If the OL gets straight, he will be deadly. Same for Gabriel.  Though he is waiting for receivers to get open too often ( he needs to throw them open - for those of you that don't know that term, it means to anticipate the spot his receivers will get open and throw to that spot before the receivers turn to look for the ball). 

 

The OL...

 

I think the right combo is there.  I think Lanning may be experimenting too much.  They need to gel, like now.  They need time to clean up the confusion.  Also, the TEs are missing lead blocks.  There are too many blown assignments going on, and not just the penalties.  Guys are a step slow, and even the RBs are blowing pass block assignments.  

 

My thoughts on that are set the platoon, and get to work on communication and situation assignments.  If DG gets another second and a half, this offense will blow the doors open passing the ball.  If the TEs clean up a bit on their motion blocking, the OL can lead the RB well down-field.  I saw enough of that to grasp why DL thinks it's fixable.

 

Now will that happen?  I don't know.  This is the part where DL's learning curve has to kick in.  He is thinking potential and process too much.  My mind says the eval period is over, and it's time to position the best player in his best role, and demand some results.  And I'd scrap some strategy assignments.

 

For example, one time the LT was assigned to block inside and the Center was supposed to cover the edge, AND the RB completely skipped by the DE and gave him a free look at DG.  That's got to stop. That particular Center isn't quick enough to get outside, and the RB needs to be assigned to the DE.  

 

I see potential here.  Which would get me fired lol.  But the talent actually exists.  Everywhere.  The big question is "will the coaches take our advice". RLMAO.

 

Seriously though, is the staff flexible enough to tweak their system to fit the talent they have? I think they're giving this team too much to think about and execute given their respective struggles.  It just might be time to keep things simple add strategies once the team executes the simple things first 

 

What do you think?

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Thanks, Mike, excellent take.

 

I see guys out of synch with the team circling the kitchen sink drain. I don't get it. I see a lot of talented individuals not playing like a team. Fool me once, OK. But where was the improvement vs a Boise team that gave up 45 points to Georgia Southern? 

 

This is a Blue Chip Roster playing in a purple haze. The communication from the coaches is not getting through or is too incoherent to grasp. All the talk we hear about cross-training O-line guys seems to be hot air.  

 

Watching Nebraka  (Dowdell 😒) and Tennessee, I watched two true frosh QBs playing better than Gabe. Ditto for the Florida Frosh QB who replaced Grahm Mertz. Gabe is playing better than decent but is he an on-the-field leader? How much did he benefit at Oklahoma playing on a roster superior to every B12 team except Texas?

 

Like FSU to date, the portal giveth and the portal taketh away. I have zero problem with players being paid but is it harder to get through to guys cashing in before going to the NFL? And are things copacetic in the locker room? 

 

It took a while for Kirby Smart to 'get it.' Perhaps we are witnessing more growing pains for Dan? The roster is not playing to the level of the talent.

 

BEAT THE BEAVS!

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On 9/9/2024 at 5:17 AM, Mike West said:

That tells me they feel confident enough to horse around against a much inferior team to find the dudes that are going to play come conference time.

I agree with most of what you said except for this piece.

 

Feels more like desperation rather than confidence. “Have to figure it out or else we’re screwed” sort of feel.

 

I didn’t get to see the game, but was there any combo of OLineman that made you say to yourself, “That’s it! That’s the combo that can push around Ohio State.” ?

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On 9/9/2024 at 7:05 AM, cartm25 said:

 

I didn’t get to see the game, but was there any combo of OLineman that made you say to yourself, “That’s it! That’s the combo that can push around Ohio State.

I didn't get to see enough to make that kind of determination.  You may be right.  It could be desperation.

 

I didn't get to see enough bad plays to get a feel for what's wrong.  It definitely was better than week one, which was a complete mess.

 

Two things stand out though: DG is more "passive" than I expected.  In other words, he's waiting for things to happen.

 

Two: the blocking has no grit to it.  That includes the WRs.  The offense just may be taking on Gabriel's persona here.  Confident, yet lacking a killer instinct.  That's the best I can explain it.

 

I've yet to see anyone just punch somebody ( figuratively speaking).  Like George Foreman power and Mike Tyson is lethality and ferocity. 

 

Georgia is the closest team I've seen with that aura this year.

 

I do see the talent though.  No cohesiveness, but enough ability to be a potent offense.

 

I hope that explains it more 

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On 9/9/2024 at 10:31 AM, Mike West said:

I didn't get to see enough to make that kind of determination.  You may be right.  It could be desperation.

 

I didn't get to see enough bad plays to get a feel for what's wrong.  It definitely was better than week one, which was a complete mess.

 

Two things stand out though: DG is more "passive" than I expected.  In other words, he's waiting for things to happen.

 

Two: the blocking has no grit to it.  That includes the WRs.  The offense just may be taking on Gabriel's persona here.  Confident, yet lacking a killer instinct.  That's the best I can explain it.

 

I've yet to see anyone just punch somebody ( figuratively speaking).  Like George Foreman power and Mike Tyson is lethality and ferocity. 

 

Georgia is the closest team I've seen with that aura this year.

 

I do see the talent though.  No cohesiveness, but enough ability to be a potent offense.

 

I hope that explains it more 

 

Where's Sugar Ray Blount when we need him? 

 

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The line-up they used mostly through the third quarter looked pretty good. 

 

But I think two things need to happen. 

 

1. Settle on a starting offensive line... but this will also change when Bedford and Ilui are back from injury but they might plug and play better because both were already in the two deep. 

 

2. Simplify the offense.... this feels awful but the truth is that this offense has three weeks (this week, bye week, UCLA) to really drill in on basics.

 

As Mike said, get the communication and blocking assignments down. I felt there were too many cute plays that got nothing done. Like that weird bubble screen then backwards lateral to James play. The blocking didn't hold up on that play to make it work, better off just handing James the ball and having him run it. 

 

This team needs time and as long as they progress they have three weeks where the schedule isn't too bad. In four weeks we get Michigan State at home, they aren't playing for the top of the conference but they're a Jonathan Smith team so they'll be progressing as well.

 

Week after that is Ohio State.... which we are not ready for. 

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Very interesting take Mike.   Well thought out and very well presented.  

 

I do think Dan and Terry are doing everything possible to figure out the O line thing.  Let's be honest it's driving them beyond crazy, I'm sure way more than we know or can even think about.  I know some have said 'well, they should have been prepared for this, injuries happen'.  Yes, they do and you have to play the hand your dealt but sometimes your options are more limited and I think that is the case here.  

 

I think (read hope) having Mike Cavanaugh as a mentor to Terry is helping.   Of course Mike is not a magician and can fix Iuli and Bedford's injuries but hopefully the combination they had in the 2nd half of the game can work till they get Iuli and Bedford back. 

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Fantastic feedback Mike. I agree with you, although I am still sold on this offense gradually improving over the season.  That can happen as they figure out the items you noted, and in the meantime, they are going to have to scratch, kick and claw their way to win a game.

 

The jolt from special teams can certainly give them confidence, and even more production from that phase.  I felt that our punter had a poor game, especially in the first half.  Not the 48 yard net punts of last year!

 

The Three Major Surprises of This Team:

 

--The deterioration of the offensive line was expected, meaning I thought there would be a little drop-off, but not off a cliff like this.

--Dillon Gabriel is not playing at the level we thought, with a lack of audibles and his height issue is much worse than I realized.

--With all the portal talent on the defense....they should be playing better and have not jelled.  (Great stuff Mike, about the DBs in coverage!)

 

With that, I am still a hopelessly devoted Duck, who believes it is all going to work out.

 

Sticking your head in the sand?

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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I believe that the offensive line play is so atrocious, Coach Stein doesn't know what the heck to call (see the 3 straight run plays on 1st and forever and the trick plays in the BSU game).  The OL did improve a little in the second half and I am hopeful that they find a group that can do a serviceable job (i.e., open up some running lanes and give DG at least 3-4 seconds to throw the ball). 

 

IMO, DG has played as well as can be expected given the terrible play of the offensive line (59/70, 84.3% completion %, 623 yards, 5 total TD, 0 interceptions). He is also not throwing the OL under the bus, like Shedeur Sanders just did at Colorado. I'd like to see him see the pressure better and call more audibles/change the press but perhaps he is not comfortable enough with the playbook or taking on that leadership role, yet.  He just missed a couple of downfield passes (one was ~6 inches from being complete) but did connect on some earlier in the game, when give time.

 

Coach Lanning was calmer than I expected in the post-game press conference.  He praised the grittiness of the team to get the win.  Perhaps he has lowered his expectations of the team a bit and realizes that we are going to have to gut out close W's?

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Thank you Mike West. I always look forward to what you have to contribute. I feel I have approximately 20% of your football knowledge so you are giving me a bit of hope. I think that a great deal of what we are seeing is due to all the recent changes in college football. Mainly the Transfer Portal and NIL. We have many top players on offense and defense but are they a team yet? Not in my mind. I love my DUCKS but it feels to me like a hastily assembled team of mercenaries who may or may not gel and become a real team this year. GO DUCKS!

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On 9/9/2024 at 9:41 AM, Charles Fischer said:

-The deterioration of the offensive line was expected, meaning I thought there would be a little drop-off, but not off a cliff like this.

If we take the Fiesta Bowl offensive line there is only one player who is missing from that line-up, right guard Steven Jones. Everyone else is returning. 

 

Granted, I do feel that Nix did a lot of the pre-snap reads and helped Poncho out a lot more than we give him credit for, but that line played very well. This current offensive line is a far cry from that line considering there is only one missing lineman. 

 

This needs to be figured out real soon. 

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On 9/9/2024 at 7:31 AM, Mike West said:

Two things stand out though: DG is more "passive" than I expected.  In other words, he's waiting for things to happen.

I'm going to give DG the benefit of the doubt and say he's passive due to the chaotic nature of the OL right now and is trying not to make it worse by playing hero ball.  Of course he could lean too far in that direction when he could be strategically pulling the ball a bit more often but I'm not on the field and can't see what he sees.

 

I also saw on an instant takeaways article after the game that DL tried 11(!) different OL combinations throughout the game.  No wonder things looked so disjointed up front.

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On 9/9/2024 at 1:06 PM, kirklandduck said:

I'm going to give DG the benefit of the doubt and say he's passive due to the chaotic nature of the OL right now and is trying not to make it worse by playing hero ball. 


It could also be DG’s nature to be more laid back (so was Marcus).


Bo was super intense and vocal. I’ll never forget Bo giving the running backs coach an earful while following him down the sideline after a play. 
 

I don’t think it’s fair that Oregon fans keep comparing DG to Bo. Bo was a 1st round NFL draft selection and is now the starting QB for the Denver Broncos. He also played at Oregon  for two years (and has prior experience in Dillingham’s offense as a freshman at Auburn) - DG just finished his second game and has been on campus since the spring.  
 

Oregon is darn lucky that they both decided to play in Eugene. The current issues on offense is squarely on the offensive line (and untimely penalties).
 

We need Lamar Jackson to be successful right now…

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"Is the staff flexible enough to tweak their system to fit the talent they have? I think they're giving this team too much to think about and execute given their respective struggles. It just might be time to keep things simple add strategies once the team executes the simple things first"

 

Recall in 2022 Lanning was looking years ahead trying to install the Georgia defense regardless of who we had on our roster, but left Dillingham to do what he thought was appropriate on offense.

 

Dilly thought that tailoring the offense to the strengths of the players he had at the time was appropriate (very well documented). The Offense screamed ahead of our defense.

 

In 2023 when Dilly left, Dan Lanning said yeah this offensive scheme that is highly efficient works great, and brought in Stein on the agreement he would continue the scheme.

 

That worked great in 2023 when the Offense was mostly carryover from the previous year.

 

Now in 2024 we have brought in all these new players and we stuff them into this scheme that works really good. Or at least it did with the previous players...

 

We know Stein is tailoring plays to the ball handlers, but maybe struggling tailoring to the strengths/weaknesses of our O-Line?

 

For sure he did not re-evaluate the scheme with a clean sheet to the extent Dilly did in 2022.

 

This could be growth area for DL to really embrace the off-seasons and early seasons to retool the scheme as much as necessary to maximize the ability of the players you actually have, not the players you wish you had.

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On 9/9/2024 at 9:41 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Fantastic feedback Mike. I agree with you, although I am still sold on this offense gradually improving over the season.  That can happen as they figure out the items you noted, and in the meantime, they are going to have to scratch, kick and claw their way to win a game.

 

The jolt from special teams can certainly give them confidence, and even more production from that phase.  I felt that our punter had a poor game, especially in the first half.  Not the 48 yard net punts of last year!

 

The Three Major Surprises of This Team:

 

--The deterioration of the offensive line was expected, meaning I thought there would be a little drop-off, but not off a cliff like this.

--Dillon Gabriel is not playing at the level we thought, with a lack of audibles and his height issue is much worse than I realized.

--With all the portal talent on the defense....they should be playing better and have not jelled.  (Great stuff Mike, about the DBs in coverage!)

 

With that, I am still a hopelessly devoted Duck, who believes it is all going to work out.

 

Sticking your head in the sand?

 

I'm with you Charles and I will say I have faith in Dan to get this worked out.   It has to be consuming him to the point of insanity.  

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On 9/9/2024 at 9:58 AM, Santa Rosa Duck said:

Thank you Mike West. I always look forward to what you have to contribute. I feel I have approximately 20% of your football knowledge so you are giving me a bit of hope. I think that a great deal of what we are seeing is due to all the recent changes in college football. Mainly the Transfer Portal and NIL. We have many top players on offense and defense but are they a team yet? Not in my mind. I love my DUCKS but it feels to me like a hastily assembled team of mercenaries who may or may not gel and become a real team this year. GO DUCKS!

It would seem increasing the size of the playoffs field was just in time for NIL. It gives the mercenary teams a few mulligans to get things straightened out, and potentially have some lower seeded teams that are playing better than anybody by the timee the playoffs start.

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In both games, our offense starts to take control of the game, and then a comedy of errors occurs. A couple of things they haven’t done is give up a safety, or snapped the ball over the QB’s head inside the red zone. 
 

They are winning, and have shown glimpses that they are capable of playing very well. 
 

I will remain optimistic. 

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What I have missed most from the offense this season is what has been the hallmark of Oregon's offense for a long time. The breakaway run, explosive play from a running back. LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, Bucky Irving last season. You put your head down for a second, look back up, the Duck RB has got through the line and running free.

 

No doubt, some of this comes from the OL problems. Hopefully, the first sign of the OL coming together will be getting the rushing game going like we're used to seeing it.

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On 9/9/2024 at 11:35 AM, OregonDucks said:


It could also be DG’s nature to be more laid back (so was Marcus).


Bo was super intense and vocal. I’ll never forget Bo giving the running backs coach an earful while following him down the sideline after a play. 
 

I don’t think it’s fair that Oregon fans keep comparing DG to Bo. Bo was a 1st round NFL draft selection and is now the starting QB for the Denver Broncos. He also played at Oregon  for two years (and has prior experience in Dillingham’s offense as a freshman at Auburn) - DG just finished his second game and has been on campus since the spring.  
 

Oregon is darn lucky that they both decided to play in Eugene. The current issues on offense is squarely on the offensive line (and untimely penalties).
 

We need Lamar Jackson to be successful right now…

Bo was also playing behind a Remington award winner at center, not a walk-on/redshirt freshman combo.  I think DG would probably be tearing things up if the OL were performing like last year.

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One other thing I realized about DG's style while watching highlights: he might be passive but when he does throw a pass he's aggressive.  Those TD throws to Treshon Holden and Evan Stewart weren't easy floaters but darts with significant zip on them (and very accurate as he hit both WRs in stride). 

 

I think we're going to see a lot of fireworks from the passing game once the OL situation calms down and stabilizes.

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On 9/9/2024 at 11:35 AM, OregonDucks said:

It could also be DG’s nature to be more laid back (so was Marcus).

True, DG is from Hawaii after all so his personality could lend more towards that direction.  However in both his post game interviews with the press he seemed to be much more of a straight talking, cut the crap type of person.  He wasn't afraid of saying out loud the things that were going on and what needed to be worked on (though he's savvy enough not to directly call out players and/or position groups directly).

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Excellent takes everyone.  Hard to add more to the conversation.

 

After reading these, some things did come up for me.

 

First and foremost, DG is playing well-pretty good in fact.  I agree the comparison to Bo is unrealistic, and Bo definitely had the benefit of an elite OL.  For all DG's shortcomings, the guy has only turned the ball over once.  He isn't pressing or forcing things either.

 

Second, I agree the team has not been as cohesive a unit as either the 22' or 23' teams.  They're talking the talk, but they're not walking the walk.  I believe that's due to only being together for 6-9 months (less for the freshmen that came in during the fall).

 

NIL has made college football NFL lite for sure.  Money changes people, and mercenaries change the dynamic and the fabric of a team.  We are witnessing this first hand all over the country.  I believe Texas and Georgia have managed it best this season to date.  It's tough though.

 

Third, it's clear Lanning is still learning on the job.  I'll give him this though, he's taught the team well.  They know how to win.  The players didn't fold after multiple self inflicted wounds in both games.  For all Lanning has to "learn", his boys know how to perform when the chips are down.  Even when the Fuskies were putting it to them, that team climbed back from multiple TD deficits in both games.  That's excellent coaching.

 

Fourth, it is clear how difficult it is to build an elite team.  Even with the talent, and a solid staff, there are so many moving components to manage.  In addition, Lanning doesn't want to add talent for talent's sake.  Character matters to him, and in my opinion, he's probably passed on talent that conflicts with said character.  Same with Ryan Day.  The past two championship teams had some character flaws (sorry UGA fans that come regularly - but that program has had some issues, though better than what Michigan did over the same three year period).

 

Finally, winning big games requires damn near perfection.  I'm talking 98% execution.  Georgia lost to BAMA because of ONE mistake last year.  One.  Ohio State had just two against Michigan.  And Bama couldn't finish off Michigan in regulation.  That is a mental aspect of the game that is difficult to accomplish for most teams.

 

We're still in the conversation because of our potential.  That's awesome.  What's funny to me is how arrogant we get when we're close.  Players, coaches, the athletic department and fans.  We just assume it's easy.  We take  too many things for granted.  And just a simple thing like a slip on the turf, a bad ref call, or an injury can totally derail  a title pursuit.

 

Enjoy the journey is more than a cliche.  It should be a standard attitude for a football program.  Team and fans alike.  We are blessed to be in the title hunt.  We should enjoy the thrills and the disappointments.

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Great post by Mike West and a terrific and civil, discussion. The following is somewhat OT for which I apologize but players who take advantage of a broken system are not in my opinion 'mercenaries.' No more than the players' coaches who have left for better opportunities for more than 100 years.

 

I am about as far from PC as one can get but I do find the term 'mercenary' for young men trying to find the best deal for their talents troubling. For how many decades did administrators and coaches make multi-millions off of the talents of young men?

 

Yes, it is NFL Lite. In the NFL does anyone begrudge a free-agent football player trying to find a better deal from a billionaire who will pay him more than the current billionaire he is employed by? And while many free agents help out their new team many do not. 

 

The NFL has rules regarding free agency agreed to by the NFL Players Union. NFL Players cannot leave the team they are contracted to for any or no reason as is the case in college football. And there is a salary cap in the NFL. The Biggest Billionaire cannot gobble up every quality free agent. 

 

College football is 'half-pregnant.' The pendulum has shifted from being entirely in favor of the college program a young man played for to now being entirely in favor of the player. The player is favored not only by the ability to be paid but also by state and federal legislative bodies and state and federal courts.

 

Somehow the NCAA has convinced its members to pay over $2 Billion and to pay players directly to settle a case that settles nothing; additional antitrust suits have been filed while the settlement is pending. This is senseless.

 

The template for relief exists and is evident. The NFL has antitrust litigation relief from its employees because the employees have a union that bargains on behalf of the employees. NFL Union members have gone on strike, as is their right, to obtain benefits from management. But, there is one other significant difference, Roger Goodell administrates the NFL only. He does not have to administrate and look after the interests of the Arena League, the Canadian Football League, the USFL, and other professional football leagues. He is responsible for 32 teams and the players employed by 32 teams. 

 

Roger also has the benefit of the 32 team owners understanding that the biggest brands cannot control the enterprise. For the NFL to succeed, the 32 owners have agreed to a salary cap, an equal share of media proceeds, a free agency process that prohibits poaching, and a salary cap so the NY Giants and LA Rams cannot buy up all the best players. 

 

Approximately 1100 schools' athletic programs are regulated by the NCAA. At the highest level of competition, what is referred to as the 'Power 4' teams cannot agree on how many conference games they will play. There is no agreement on how much a player can be paid because the players have no bargaining entity and thus, no salary cap. A union representing athletes from 1100 schools is a non-starter. The young man playing Ifor Linfield is in a much different arena than a young man playing in Autzen stadium.

 

College football needs a Super Conference for FOOTBALL and needs it Now. (And perhaps, for men's basketball.) The upper-echelon players need a Union now that can bargain with Super Conference management. Once the Super Conference and Union are in place, Congress should provide the same relief provided to the NFL. (To avoid Title IX issues, the "owners" of the Super Conference teams will likely have to be third-party assignees of the Super Conference colleges. 

Think. 'The Oregon Ducks Sponsored (and owned) by NIKE.')

 

Do I like this? NO! I enjoyed football more when it was played in the daylight, did not need 'one true champion,' had locker rooms and not Taj Mahals, and had four postseason games for superior teams only. But that ship has sailed.

 

This is off-topic per se. But today's players IMO are not 'mercenaries,' they are part of a capitalized enterprise and are now compensated in the manner of employees in a capitalized system and are free to move for a better opportunity just like their coach-bosses. 

 

Thanks again, Mike and commenters. OBD is 2-0. It isn't pretty but who cares. 8-2 over the next 10 games has Puddles in the Playoff. Teams are different every season and I believe this team will improve.

 

BLAST THE BEAVS!

 

 

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Thanks Jon Joseph and Mike West. College football is clearly a work in progress and perhaps it is several more years before it settles down. I have often wondered what it must be like to be Dan Lanning in this current environment. No easy task. Perhaps this is why Nick Saban walked away. Head Coach may becoming a younger mans (or woman) game. 

 

GO DUCKS!

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Burning Down The House (Settlement.)

 

 

WWW.SPORTINGNEWS.COM

Ex-Michigan stars Denard Robinson and Braylon Edwards are suing the NCAA and Big Ten over name, image and likeness compensation.

 

Please, make the proper strategic move and peremptorily BK the NCAA. The Ducks will be A-OK no matter what happens; why contribute money to a settlement that settles nothing after already contributing to the Pac-2 bailout fund?

 

This season? Questions surround OBD but 83% plus of the season remains to be played and I believe the questions will be answered in OBD's favor. 

 

 

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