Ohio State is Favored Why, Exactly?

[30Duck]

Let's see, osu2 is good, 11-2 is a darn good record. they lost to Oregon, the No.1 team in the country, in that insanely loud torture chamber known as Autzen. Michigan beat them, but they'd beaten them 3 times in a row before that, so nothing new there, Osu2 trampled over Tennessee, with their freshman quarterback, and without their star running back.

 

Ryan Day is the coach, and you know he's going to come up with some great in-game adjustments, and is at his absolute best when the games matter the most, right?

So, that's why osu2 is favored. 

 

The A-Bomb: Aww, Nuts

WWW.ADDICTEDTOQUACK.COM

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The idea seems to be that The Buckeyes are somehow too tough to crack.

 

[Lrod]

I cant remember the last undefeated number 1 team who is more written off than Oregon.  

 

Everyone in media wants to be the first to call for an Oregon loss.  Even Vegas...

 

They literally will say "they almost lost to Idaho" in the game previews.  lol

 

Penn St put up this number on them.  but will disregard we put up an easy 45 on them.  

 

Game is taking to long to come.  I want this W bad.  We will be underdogs to Texas in everybody's eyes if the two were to meet..lol

[CjAllen180]

Two words: Recency bias.

[30Duck]

On 12/27/2024 at 10:24 AM, CjAllen180 said:

Two words: Recency bias.

This, and, if osu2 had won the first game, would Oregon be favored this time?

[Jon Joseph]

Hail! Hail! The Gang's All Here As We Diss Our New Conference Foe!

 

 

Oregon might still be the top seed, but Ohio State is the team to beat for the title

SATURDAYTRADITION.COM

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The Buckeyes' opening-round beatdown of Tennessee has helped leapfrog them ahead of Oregon as the national championship favorite.

BURY BRUTUS! RUIN RYAN'S DAY!

 

[Grandpa Duck]

The point spread is based on the expectation of how many bettors will put down money for a particular team.  OBD having a smaller fan base will garner fewer bets.  This opinion comes from a source who has never made a bet through a sports book.

[30Duck]

That article from Saturday Tradition is the biggest puff piece since that love letter to Colorado a couple weeks ago. Osu2 destroyed Tennessee, WOW!. Howard can throw a perfect pass. Unfortunately, he can't tell time yet. 

[David Marsh]

Keep in mind lines are established to separate fans from their money and take a bet. 

 

Ohio State is favored in part because their fanbase is bigger and this is anyway to hedge their bets to get buckeyes to put money down while also ensuring Vegas can still win. 

 

In a way I'm reading this line as an Oregon line because the bets will come in for Ohio State but if you're the house trying to make money on this one who do you actually want to cover? Oregon. 

 

Which means there is some faith Oregon creates problems for Ohio State and can cover the spread and potentially win outright. 

 

Betting lines aren't always predictions but are always about separating people from their money. 

[Jon Joseph]

Has anyone considered that the SEC including Tennessee was not all that good in 2024?

 

The Vols beat Bama! So did Vandy and Oklahoma. Big Whoop! And against a Bama team that Oklahoma destroyed, the Vols put up 24 points on its home field. 

 

The Vols O line was a sieve versus tOSU. The Ducks O line was solid versus tOSU helped out by a Heisman finalist QB whose play is in a different stratosphere than that of Tennessee Freshman QB Nico I. 

 

The vaunted Vols run game? The top drawer WRs? One of the best Ds in CFB? Like the game in Columbus, the entire Tennessee team no-showed against Georgia in Athens. Versus the best D the Vols O played against, it did nothing.

 

This Tennessee team lost to Arkansas and looked bad in the process. 

 

The Vols were way overrated because of the conference it plays in. 9-3 Alabama finished No. 11. 9-3 Illinois finished No. 20. Two of the Illini's three losses came on the road against the No. 1 ranked and No. 4 ranked teams in the nation, OBD and Penn State. The Illini loss to 7-5 Minnesota was not a good loss but it was better than the Bama losses to Vandy and Oklahoma. 

 

The 3-loss SEC teams that 'all should have been in the playoff' were along with Tennessee and Texas, overrated; again, because there is no way the SEC can have a down year, right? Committee darling Texas has one win against a PO team, 3-loss No. 16 Clemson on its home field.

 

With Carson Beck down, the two best teams remaining in the field will play in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State after being told they STINK by their fans and the SEC media honks played its best game of the season, at home and in favorable weather conditions. tOSU hit its season zenith. Not easy to duplicate the next time out.

 

Oregon will perhaps get the respect it deserves after it wins a Natty but it will probably take a Clemson-like 4-team format run before the respect comes coast-to-coast.

 

Cage Chipper! Ruin Ryan's Day! Bury Brutus. 

 

BTW - Could Tennessee beat Boise or Penn State? We know the Vols didn't come close to Ohio State.

[Drake]

On 12/27/2024 at 10:35 AM, Grandpa Duck said:

The point spread is based on the expectation of how many bettors will put down money for a particular team.  OBD having a smaller fan base will garner fewer bets.  This opinion comes from a source who has never made a bet through a sports book.

It is all about the betting cash flow.
 

However, most of the bets will be from non-Duck/tosu fans that lay action on these games. It is virtually a pick-em game between the two teams. 
 

Odds makers are in cahoots with the sports books, and set odds/monellines that will profit the sports books. The moneyline is approximately -132 tosu, and +115 for the Ducks. Add the implied winning probabilities together and it is approximately 104%. 

[DuckFan93]

On 12/27/2024 at 11:08 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Oregon will perhaps get the respect it deserves after it wins a Natty but it will probably take a Clemson-like 4-team format run before the respect comes coast-to-coast.

This.   It is hard to get full respect until we win it all, probably more than once.   That's how big-time sport is.   I am very excited that we are getting close yet again.  It would be great if we win it all this year.  But if not, there is always next year, as we will be in the PO every year. Fortunately I got a few more years than Uncle Phil, so I know for sure I will get to see OBD with the Natty in my life time!

[David Marsh]

On 12/27/2024 at 11:08 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Has anyone considered that the SEC including Tennessee was not all that good in 2024?

I have for years! 

 

They have been just like the B1G. A very strong top but a significant drop off afterwards. 

 

But this year is debate how strong the top is. 

Edited Friday at 07:32 PM by David Marsh

[Augduck]

At this point I am guessing tOSU will be favored to win the Super Bowl as well

[OregonDucks]

On 12/27/2024 at 1:24 PM, CjAllen180 said:

Two words: Recency bias.

This. I read an article prior to the first round of the playoffs, and Oregon was favored over both Tennessee and Ohio State. The Ohio State spread was a little closer than the Tennessee spread. 
 

What happened?! Ohio State looked dominant beating a mediocre Tennessee team at home and now they are the favorites?

 

It’s all good. I’d rather be the underdog. Not that Coach Lanning would use that to fire up his team…

Edited Friday at 08:22 PM by OregonDucks

[Mike West]

On 12/27/2024 at 9:35 AM, Lrod said:

I cant remember the last undefeated number 1 team who is more written off than Oregon.  

 

Everyone in media wants to be the first to call for an Oregon loss.  Even Vegas...

 

They literally will say "they almost lost to Idaho" in the game previews.  lol

 

Penn St put up this number on them.  but will disregard we put up an easy 45 on them.  

 

Game is taking to long to come.  I want this W bad.  We will be underdogs to Texas in everybody's eyes if the two were to meet..lol

Well believe it or not, Georgia and Texas will be favored as well if we face either of them.  

 

 All three squads have more talent quite frankly.  Especially on defense.

 

Dillon Gabriel has been the measurable the sports books, FPI and eye test can't account for.

 

I want to show why, but it makes me want to say what I want to do, which isn't going to happen.  

 

I happen to believe one simple adjustment on defense would just about shut down everyone's running game.  Which is ironic, because we still have trouble stopping lethal passing attacks.  

 

Again, it's a waste of breath explaining what I'd like to see because frankly, I'm not the DC. So I get to fret because I know if I see it, the guys that get paid millions see it.  

 

The one thing that gives me hope is the defense has yet to allow momentum go against them for more than two series on the field. They kill momentum enough times to allow our offense to outscore teams. That saved OBD against both OSU and PSU. 

 

Dillon Gabriel is going to be the reason we win it all. As long as Stein gives him multiple options to complete passes, OBD have a chance to make history.  Because we're going to have to score 40 plus every damn game.

 

We're basically looking at Oregon/UW circa 2023 the next three games.  Get your popcorn out because fireworks are going to be on full display the next 4-12 Quarters.  

Edited Friday at 09:52 PM by Mike West

[GatOrlando]

1.) The media. Just about everybody crowned Ohio State before a game was played. They can still claim they knew.

 

2.) The talent. Everybody talked up the 20 million dollar payroll. Had Oregon been crowing about their reported 23 million dollar roster things may be different.

 

3.) Recency bias. Ohio State thrashed an SEC squad. Oregon hasn't played in nearly a month.

 

4.) The rematch. Many believe Ohio State *would've won the first matchup in Eugene if Lanning hadn't exploited a loophole. It's also extremely difficult to beat a good team multiple times. This game isn't a home game for Oregon, that's a 3 point loss to their odds in Vegas.

 

* I dislike this notion because what ifs and should've should never be taken as analysis points.

 

5.) The brand. Certain programs are just seen as perennial favorites. Oregon is a great program but they aren't established like "The" Ohio State. Oregon is making their first playoff game in a decade and seeking their first ever National Title. Ohio State has made six of these things and has multiple National Titles.

Edited yesterday at 02:02 AM by GatOrlando