Does Oregon’s Defense Need to Change for 2025?

[FishDuck Article]

Sometimes it feels like Oregon’s defense is cursed. While the offense has consistently performed well over Oregon’s history, it always feels like the defense is letting the team down. This last season, the offense performed well, if not up to the 2023 levels (I have outlined in previous articles the decline of the 2024 run game and passing game), and ...

 

Does Oregon’s Defense Need to Change for 2025? | FishDuck

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Sometimes it feels like Oregon’s defense is cursed. While the offense has consistently performed well over Oregon’s history, it always feels like the defense is…

 

[30Duck]

Should he pursue a change in his base defense now to try and leverage the talent he has to elevate this team to National Championship caliber? Or should he stay the course and wait for his players to develop and emerge in the Lanning defense the way it is meant to be played?

 

 

Of the two options, I'll take the former, believing a coach is always going to be better maximizing the talent on hand, not forcing them into his scheme. In time, as the talent pool deepens, adjustments, always a key in effective coaching, can be made. 

[Charles Fischer]

Lanning has made a commitment to this defense, and recruited the players for it, thus I believe he has to stay-the-course as they mature into their roles.

 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

 

Thank you, DM. 

 

I look to you, Charles, Mike West, and others on the Forum for advice on Xs and Os. 

 

However, it's easy to see that OBD's D has yet to realize Aristotle's famous observation, "The whole is greater than the sum of its parts ..."  

 

Is this scheme or simply not being ready to show up? In the first quarter of the 2023 Pac-12 champ game versus UW, the O came out flat as the proverbial pancake. The D spent the entire first quarter on the field and was spent by the fourth quarter when UW came back for the win. 

 

In the Big Ten champ game, Penn State's 37 points were not that far off its season average of 33.1 points. Roster-wise, PSU's roster was not inferior to OBD's roster. OBD showed up ready to play from the start. You are not (except in the 2025 Rose Bowl ) going to routinely dominate teams with like-type rosters. 

 

The Rose Bowl? When one team comes out as flat as OBD and the other team as fired up as TOSU, does the scheme matter all that much? Without Evan Stewart, Caleb Downs moved up and played a 'Rover Position." The O couldn't stay on the field and the D couldn't get off the field. Still, Gabe threw for 299 yards. 

 

Georgia? Did you watch the game vs. Ole Miss when the Georgia O was schooled? This was Kirby's D being played by Kirby's recruits. The UGA O was impotent in Oxford, the D couldn't get off of the field and Georgia was overwhelmed by the same team that lost to Kentucky, LSU, and Florida.

 

Texas. The Ohio State D got after Quinn Ewers. IMO, Ewers played the gutty game of his life to keep Texas in the game. Unlike the Rose Bowl, in the Cotton Bowl, the Ohio State offense kept shooting itself in the foot. Against Notre Dame, the Ohio State D gave up plays to athletes no better than OBD's athletes allowing the Domers to stay in the game. 

 

The letdowns in 'Do They Really Matter Games' are frustrating but do not trouble me; not when a team will have to play 16 or 17 games to win a title. OBD was never in danger of losing to Purdue. The effort on D at Wisconsin was excellent. And the game in Madison was OBD's 8th in a row without a siesta. Stuff happens.

 

Portal picking will persist in Eugene. Ohio State's D had home-grown talent across the board, but would TOSU have won the title without Alabama transfer Caleb Downs? (And on the O-side without Will Howard, Quinshon Judkins, and Seth McLaughlin?)

 

Will the big-game preparation and in-game coaching improve? I don't believe the scheme is the root of the problem. The Ohio State D improved significantly when Jim Knowles arrived with the skill to implement a winning scheme and implement it. 

 

In today's CFB world, Dan Lanning has to be a CEO. Are the right assistants on board? Is a dink and dunk O the way OBD should play on O? Is the scheme on D too difficult to comprehend? 

 

And one question you asked David that I'm waiting to see answered hopefully in the positive, are the 4* and 5* recruits ready to make an impact? Where are the 'if you're good enough you're old enough' recruits?

 

The Ohio State roster did not improve by leaps and bounds from October 12th to the Rose Bowl. However, TOSU's game preparation improved. OBD's?

 

Sorry for the too-long comment but if NIL and unfettered free agency are bringing parity to CFB, OBD was the only FBS team with one loss last season, then losses will happen. See: The NFL.

 

Thanks again for the terrific take. 

[kirklandduck]

On 1/30/2025 at 10:11 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Lanning has made a commitment to this defense, and recruited the players for it, thus I believe he has to stay-the-course as they mature into their roles.

 

 

 

This.  The common thread between the last two national championship teams is that they were chock full of experienced veterans with 3-5 years of experience in those programs.  I think the uneven performance of the offense and defense is at least partly explained by this as DL has had to utilize the portal extensively his first 3 years to assemble squads that can perform well under the circumstances.  But while an experienced player from outside the program can perform well for 1 year, generally speaking another player who's been in the program for 4 years will understand their role and responsibilities far better (and can adjust on the fly more easily due to their deep knowledge of the schemes).  

 

Next season we'll start seeing some guys from his 1st recruiting class start to show what they're able to do and it will be the initial reflection of how well DL and the rest of the staff is at developing talent in house.

[Solar]

It should be easier to tailor defense for the offenses we will face that can compete with us.

 

The game continues to change on offense. Is the Georgia scheme still the best? Or is the Ravens pro-style defense Michigan runs the best? Or is something else Jim knowles was running at OSU the best? Or what Avalos ran in 2019 the best?

 

I don't know.

 

All I know is any defense that is most vulnerable at the edges and the middle 10-20 yards downfield is going to get eaten alive with modern spread offense schemes as the Ducks have shown over the last 3 years, and it sucks to watch. I don't care about stuffing the middle all day if the other team can just go over us and around us on any down and distance.

[cartm25]

Isn't the hallmark of an offensive/defensive "genius" the ability to adapt your scheme to fit the personnel?

 

Seems to me that would always be the default as opposed to sticking to a scheme that doesn't suit your players. But I'm not, and never will be, a coach, so I'm a bit of a keyboard warrior with no idea what to do. However, I've watched sports for many years and the theme I've seen that sets certain coaches apart is their ability to adapt their scheme to their personnel and to what the opposition presents.

 

An unpopular question:  Is Dan Lanning a defensive genius, OR is he the beneficiary of working in Smart's shadow and being surrounded by NFL talent?

 

The answer could be "Yes" to both parts of the question above. And, I'm not suggesting dissatisfaction with Dan Lanning as head coach. Merely posing the question since I think it's worth asking, it can be good to discuss, and maybe because Dan Lanning needs a little bit of help/development defensively still.

 

But overall as a head coach, A+ if I'm grading.

[DanLduck]

I don't know enough to answer this article question. But I think as this is year 4 of DL's career here, it's time to see the answer on the field. With all the turnover on this team in the past 4 years, and this year's top recruiting class, this team is all "Lanning's players". He should have the players for his scheme. And we know he can get them prepared to play. This next season should answer some questions as to whether we are developing players or just importing them.

 

[Jon Sousa]

DL's defense has been evolving since day one and still is. The players he had in year one were no where close to being able to execute what DL wanted to install. 

 

"Out with the old, in with the new." Year two we saw a huge turnover in personnel on defense, and a little more in year 3. Most of the high schoolers that DL has recruited over the last 3 years have yet to see any meaningful game time.  Several of those will likely never see the field, as Dan is trying to find those who fit. 

 

I believe that we will not really see the defense that Dan envisions until year 5 or 6... maybe even year 7. 

 

Until then, I am going to continue to enjoy the ride... and the steady improvements in all three phases of the Ducks' game.

'

[Chas Man]

Well, according to this very basic metric referred to as "Stop Rate", OBD have to find a way to do better, and that usually entails change. According to an ESPN article, here is an overview of the "stop rate" measurement:

 

What is stop rate? It's a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense's drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. Defensive coordinators have the same goal regardless of their scheme, opponent or conference: prevent points and get off the field. Stop rate is a simple metric but can offer a good reflection of a defense's effectiveness on a per-drive basis in today's faster-tempo game.

 

Great teams find a way to get stops in critical moments. The national champion Buckeyes earned their No. 1 finish by achieving a stop rate of 78.5%. (#1 on the stop rate list) That's a mighty impressive percentage considering their defense had to endure a four-game College Football Playoff run and a 16-game schedule that featured six top-5 opponents.

 

OBD? They were 32nd on the list! We were just not very good at getting the D off the field. Not good enough to take us to the promised land IMHO.

 

Final college football defensive stop rate for 2024 season - ESPN

WWW.ESPN.COM

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We ranked the top defenses for the 2024 season based on how many times an opponent's drive ended without points.

 

Edited January 31 by Chas Man

[Charles Fischer]

On 1/30/2025 at 3:59 PM, Chas Man said:

OBD? They were 32nd on the list! We were just not very good at getting the D off the field.

This supports what Jon Joseph stated the other day, (I believe it was him) that our defense was good against the non-elite teams, but when faced with top-5 teams...it was not good against Penn State (No 5 in the final poll) and Ohio State, who finished No. 1 for 2024.

 

So it wasn't the Flu?

 

[30Duck]

It definitely looks like it wasn't the flu, and though the scheme might need some alterations, bigger, faster, better players will make the most difference. I feel like if the Stop Rate were to be checked for OBD over the years No.32 would probably pretty steady.

 

The D this year certainly had its moments last season, but it was against Wisconsin, and 10 sacks on UW was fun, but that says as much about a weak UW OL, as an overpowering Oregon DL.  We didn't have a lockdown corner or a safety that struck fear to opposing receivers or lethal linebackers. 

 

Until Oregon gets defensive players good enough to get Oregon into the top half 10 of Stop Rate, and be drafted along with Ohio State and Georgia, the Natty will be a hard get. 

 

[Cacker Guy]

On 1/30/2025 at 1:26 PM, cartm25 said:

An unpopular question:  Is Dan Lanning a defensive genius, OR is he the beneficiary of working in Smart's shadow and being surrounded by NFL talent?

Great question, cartm.  I agree that the answer may be yes and yes.  And I agree that Lanning has done a terrific job as a head coach.  He has exceeded my expectations. 

 

However I've always suspected that Smart got insufficient credit for that Georgia defense, and maybe Lanning got a bit too much.  Impossible to tell from my vantage point, but my guess is Smart is the real genius.  And oh my did he have the players!

Edited January 31 by Cacker Guy

[David Marsh]

On 1/30/2025 at 6:36 PM, Cacker Guy said:

but my guess is Smart is the real genius.  And oh my did he have the players!

Probably more than anything else it's the players. 

 

The Oregon secondary has been different every single year! I think Tysheem Johnson has been the only consistent face in the secondary for the past two years. Florence would have been, but his injury kept him out this season. 

 

Sure, Reed was in his second year with the Ducks and made an impact, but he isn't getting drafted or more to the point I'd be shocked if he is. Linebackers have had consistency as there have been three guys in rotation in the last two years. Bassa has been back there all three with Lanning and he has great qualities, but he was never a Troy Dye player...

 

 

Speaking of which Lanning needs a Troy Dye in his backer corp. A great tackler and coverage guy and a fantastic leader. Defensive line felt good this year at times but still feels like it lacked that lock down ability on the run. I do feel the biggest problem continues to be the secondary. Hoping to see that change soon. 

 

 

[VegasDuck]

On 1/30/2025 at 6:14 PM, Charles Fischer said:

This supports what Jon Joseph stated the other day, (I believe it was him) that our defense was good against the non-elite teams, but when faced with top-5 teams...it was not good against Penn State (No 5 in the final poll) and Ohio State, who finished No. 1 for 2024.

 

So it wasn't the Flu?

 

and Boise State.

[VegasDuck]

Yes it needs to change. The Rose Bowl was a complete embarrassment. The Defensive coordinator needs to go.

[cartm25]

On 1/30/2025 at 7:36 PM, Cacker Guy said:

And oh my did he have the players!

Yes! The defense he coached in his last year had 8 (EIGHT) players drafted . . . 5 (FIVE) in the 1st round. Two of the five 1st rounders were D Tackles . . . that is my dream for the Ducks: NFL D-Tackles.

 

I didn't officially confirm this, but that would indicate that those players were on the defense for the entire tenure (or longer) Dan Lanning was the DC. I understand they were not all fully developed at the beginning, but sheesh!! Imagine having 5 future 1st rounders, and 8 in total, wow. It's gotta make the job easier.

Edited January 31 by cartm25

[Jon Joseph]

 

Terrific article. Terrific comments. Re-reading my too-lengthy comment and with no offense meant to the terrific TOSU folks on the board, I hope I am not becoming that nitpicking, absurd, obnoxious, unrealistic fan, and part of a like-type fan base. 

 

Dan has lost six games; 35-6. Two of the losses came against national championship teams, including a team that played for the 2023-24 championship. 

 

With the roster he inherited, would Mike Bellotti, Chip, Helf, Slick, or Cristobal have done as well or better? That's a rhetorical question.

 

Grading, I give Dan an 'A' including the critical elements of recruiting and portal picking, in the regular season and a 'C' in the postseason. Wins vs. UNC and Liberty are to be expected. But going 1-1 vs. PO Teams in the postseason with an embarrassing, let the air out of the balloon, Rose Bowl loss was not good. 

 

Like Kirby Smart, Ryan Day, and other championship coaches, he is paying his dues. Three active CFB coaches have won a National Championship, Ryan Day, Dabo Swinney, and Kirby Smart. That's all folks .

 

I'm with Charles. It's Dan's team, and it's a building process that Dan appropriately will do his way. 

 

PS - Terrific 'Stop Rate' post. And I do not quibble with OBD's ranking. However, in this mega-conference era, I want to know the quality of the teams that were played. After all, James Franklin has won a lot of football games. 

[David Marsh]

On 1/31/2025 at 9:00 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Grading, I give Dan an 'A' including the critical elements of recruiting and portal picking, in the regular season

I'm completely behind Lanning and I do feel he is the one to get us to the promised land. He WILL win us a National Championship the only question is when. 

 

In reviewing this season I am nit picking everything. It is one of those seasons that the final goal felt so close but the team fell short and now doing an autopsy and figuring out why is the next step. 

 

As always, thank you for your insightful comments Jon. 

[Mike West]

On 1/30/2025 at 8:57 PM, David Marsh said:

Bassa has been back there all three with Lanning and he has great qualities, but he was never a Troy Dye player...

 

 

Speaking of which Lanning needs a Troy Dye in his backer corp. A great tackler and coverage guy and a fantastic leader. Defensive line felt good this year at times but still feels like it lacked that lock down ability on the run. I do feel the biggest problem continues to be the secondary. Hoping to see that change soon. 

 
 

 

Not to argue or anything, Bassa is having a good camp at the Senior Bowl.  I also believe he was good in coverage, but ineffective because…. You guessed it-he kept looking at the QB instead of covering guys running into his area of responsibility.  Boetcher has the same problem.

 

Lots mentioned DL has his recruits now.  Well, I’m concerned then because only DL Washington has truly stood out in the interior.  We have too many edge rushers in the mix in my opinion.  It’s why DL has had to go to the portal to fill the interior.  But we shall see this year if the guys inside are legit.  

 

I want a 4-3 / 3-4 combo formation.  It’s easier to seal the edge, set more flexible coverage rules, and frankly cover the entire field better.  But I’m just a hack, so I could be completely wrong. I just hope the defense starts grinding down elite offenses.  Still requires an elite offense though.  
 

I really like Lanning.  He beat Ohio State at home when I was pretty sure we’d lose that game.  He showed me he has the chops to step into the trophy box.  

[30Duck]

On 1/31/2025 at 6:12 PM, Mike West said:

 I also believe he was good in coverage, but ineffective because…. You guessed it-he kept looking at the QB instead of covering guys running into his area of responsibility.  Boetcher has the same problem.

This is troubling, it seems like something coaches would be able to pick up and correct. Did they not see it? Bad. Did they see it and not do anything about it? Worse.  It also goes to my idea that the best defenses aren't reactive, as in responding to what the offense does, but are in a position that dictates the action. 

[David Marsh]

On 1/31/2025 at 6:12 PM, Mike West said:

Not to argue or anything, Bassa is having a good camp at the Senior Bowl.  I also believe he was good in coverage, but ineffective because…. You guessed it-he kept looking at the QB instead of covering guys running into his area of responsibility.  Boetcher has the same problem.

No argument from me. I think the linebackers have done fairly well in Lanning's system. A lot of people have said they are under performing put the standard they keep trying to grade Lanning's backers to is a downhill run stuffer or pass rusher. Which isn't the sole role of linebackers in this defense. 

 

I think they need to continue to work on their coverage skills though. 

 

And it was you Mike who made a comment about the Oregon defense last week and was the inspiration for this article. 

 

Thanks for that! 

[Mike West]

You brought up even better points David.  It really is a chicken or egg dilemma.  I think the players are good enough, and I believe the secondary issues seem like the weakness, especially given the amount of transfers that have started.  
 

Yet the questions you posed give pause to reconsider.  Either way, it’s clear Lanning gets plenty from his team.  He is getting better in the clutch, and now it’s a matter of elevating the units to complete elite status. 
 

OBD didn’t have the most elite prospects this year.  Several teams have more ‘NFL stock’.  13-1 is impressive when you consider that fact. 

[Charles Fischer]

This topic I've given more thought to, as I may have been a bit too flip in an earlier post. David makes a great point about the defense being "Not quite right," and some of the information and discussion in this thread has been extraordinary. It is this community at its best...

 

When I began writing about the MINT defense three years ago--it was acknowledged that it required three "freak" athletes of which are hard to find, to recruit and develop.  Clearly, Lanning has good athletes, but not the freaks he needs yet.

 

 

There are other signs that point to David's premise, for example when players do better when they leave Oregon and go to the NFL?  I never thought Evan Williams would even make an NFL roster, let alone be a star for Green Bay.  He was a good college player, but not THAT good.  Hence it makes you wonder if our defensive alignment did not hold him back?

 

[AnotherOD]

"Probably more than anything else it's the players."

 

"The defense he coached in his last year had 8 (EIGHT) players drafted, 5 (FIVE) in the 1st round. Two of the five 1st rounders were D Tackles, that is my dream for the Ducks: NFL D-Tackles."

 

 

From what I've been able to gather, the "Mint" or "Tide" front is working as it is supposed to.

 

Against opponents Oregon was thought to have a fair talent advantage, it was fine, and the defensive numbers all good. It mostly looks overall to me to be an attempt at an updated "bend but don't break" with a few pressure tricks up front.

 

The problem, that appeared pretty clearly this year against teams with more talent, is the only way the scheme appears to continue to function well, is to have even more talent in key spots. A rather simple "secret sauce".

 

In the front, I'd say 3-4 future NFL players with at least a pair of first or second round draft choices, at least a pair of round 1-3 LBs, and a sprinkling of later round draft choices (or at least athletic very good and experienced college guys). Also have to throw in a day one or early day two lock down CB (and at least one future NFL safety).

 

Without the personel, there appear to be holes all over the place talented teams will exploit. Lesser talent seems often to be scrambling around, often confused, a few (to often several) steps late. The schemes answer to defend that is just largely have great players who cover those gaps.

 

Five DB base defenses have taken over college football, so it isn't like other variations aren't getting roasted as well. I think what we are really seeing play out it this particular version just is extra "bend but don't break" and the current front DL/LB guys, while good, haven't been Georgia (when they were good) kind of good. In the bit of Georgia I watched this year, I actually felt I saw some of the same sort of struggles at times (especially I guess with some injuries).

 

Birch, Harmon are thought to be day 1-2 talent, Matayo certainly looks to be future NFL lock, Caldwell and Muhammed are supposed to be late picks, Bassa seems to have played his way into being picked at the Senior Bowl, and BB is now seriously being looked at as a draftable player next year. That is at least 7 NFL guys along with 4 seniors. It does seem like the defense, on paper, probably should have been a bit better even against the offensive talent of tOSU, Penn State, and Boise State.

 

As others have commented, I think the "problem" lies in the key front 6 positions plus NB, where there were only 2 likely day 1-2 choices (and I'm not convinced one of them ever got back fully healthy). If the Ducks are sticking with it, as I am sure they will, the answer is more top, top talent, especially in the front 6-7 (preferably guys also grown up in the system). Or, I guess, continue to have success defensively against most of the schedule and find a way to outscore everyone else.

 

[David Marsh]

On 2/1/2025 at 5:36 PM, AnotherOD said:

It does seem like the defense, on paper, probably should have been a bit better even against the offensive talent of tOSU, Penn State, and Boise State.

The defense right now is good, you don't post a 13-1 record with an awful defense.

 

But it really does feel like the defense needs to get more out of it's players.

 

Part of my on-going thinking is that is the defensive floor too high? Should the scheme be made more adaptive so that younger and newer transfers have a better opportunity to learn it faster and see the field faster? We'll have to see... what many others have said is that this year will be year 4 for Lanning and his recruiting classes are going to need to start to emerge as older players who are experts in the system.

 

However, having said this the 2022 class that Lanning brought in has almost gone via the portal over the past few years. I think that was a salvaged class for a first year head coach that was quickly eclipsed by the portal. But it will be interesting to see what the 2023 class is going to do this upcoming year.