Which game will be tougher for Our Beloved Ducks, and why?

At Autzen: versus Indiana, or USC?

and...

Away Games: at Iowa or at Washington?

Why?

Indiana.

It's on the road, 1st time playing there. Well coached team.

USuC is at home, easy to get up for.

Washington.

Always tough to win in Seattle. Should be their big "bowl" game. A 'must' win for OBD fans which always makes a win more difficult.

27 minutes ago, DanLduck said:

Indiana.

It's on the road, 1st time playing there. Well coached team.

USuC is at home, easy to get up for.

Washington.

Always tough to win in Seattle. Should be their big "bowl" game. A 'must' win for OBD fans which always makes a win more difficult.

Indiana is a home game coming off a bye after playing at Penn State. Were you thinking of the away game at Iowa?

It's easy to confuse teams in a conference with 4 Ms, 3 Is, 2 Ns, Os, Ps. Us, Ws, and an R.😁

40 minutes ago, Charles Fischer said:

Which game will be tougher for Our Beloved Ducks, and why?

At Autzen versus Indiana, or USC?

At Iowa or at Washington?

Why?

Terrific topic to ponder.

I'll Duck out and go with what Dan Lanning would likely say: One game at a time, and they are all tough games.

IMO.....at Iowa.....this game will demand a good effort

1. Its played November 8.....in the midwest November 8 could be like January or September weather wise. If by some chance it's January.....anything could happen.

2. Iowa appears to be underrated this year....they have 3 players potentially rated all big 10 on the OL. A nice QB transfer and will have a good not great defense.

3. The place will be packed and may be played at night......depending on how Iowa has done to date. One of the larger stadiums at 70,000. Few Oregon fans in the area. Who but the diehards wants to visit Iowa City in November.

4. Oregon is traveling

5. Iowa coming off bye

6. Iowa coming off playing at home against a mid level Minnesota. So no travel for 3 weeks. Few bumps and bruises.

7. Last time Oregon played Iowa was 1994. Not a familiar site.

8. Not sure which ref team will be assigned but......they could be slanted. If Iowa is 7-1 or better going into the game...look out for a few obvious home calls.

9. Iowa coaching is not great.....but is competent.

I have nothing to add to all the great points made by fred flintstone, and 3 things are true, it never rains at Autzen Stadium, and the Ducks aren't losing, in the bright sunshine to Indiana or USC either. While it's in the realm of possibilities, and Fisch has the Mutts moving in the right direction, they aren't ready to beat OBD in 2025.

3 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

Indiana is a home game coming off a bye after playing at Penn State. Were you thinking of the away game at Iowa?

It's easy to confuse teams in a conference with 4 Ms, 3 Is, 2 Ns, Os, Ps. Us, Ws, and an R.😁

My bad. I thought Indy was a road game.

I'll stick with them though. We still have Rileys number!

When the Ducks won 44-6 at Iowa in 1989 it was one of coach Hayden Fry's worst Iowa teams though they did manage a 5-6 season. Iowa was 1-5 at home, 4-1 on the road. There was a noticeable difference in team speed between Oregon's offense and Iowa's defense in that September 1989 game. It was 38-0 with a bit over 6 minutes left in the third quarter.

1989 was an interesting schedule. Iowa was the only non-conference game in September. The Ducks went 3-3 in conference too, then played two non-conference games with the first in late October. The Ducks then went 2-0 in the Pac in November to finish 5-3 and 8-4. I don't think they have had a non-conference game as late as November 4 again since. And, that November 4 game wasn't an SEC version of hosting Citadel in November, it was at BYU.

I'd pick Iowa over Washington. Iowa with a new OC seems to have found a pulse last year offensively. They jumped 60 spots in offensive F+. It only brought them to middle of the pack status; but, they actually rushed the ball pretty well last year. Their passing game only improved modestly; but, they are bringing in a QB in Mark Gronowski who won back-to-back FCS titles (and one FCS player of the year award). Obviously it is a wait and see how the jump to FBS goes; but, with over 10,000 career passing yards, he will bring experience and one might expect at least a higher floor.

On defense Iowa finished #9 in defensive F+, after finishing #3 the year prior. They will be replacing 7 starters; but, their early depth chart shows 9 seniors and two juniors (all who were a part of the program last year). They have a history of usually being solid there (they haven't allowed 30 points to an opponent at home for 56 straight games dating back to early 2016. It's a bit of an apples-to-oranges kind of comparison given how the two teams play but, just for reference, Oregon over the same stretch gave up 30+ at Autzen 12 times).

I'll go ahead and take the USC over Indiana. Always liked Mendoza at Cal and expect Indiana will be good again; but, Oregon should have a significant talent advantage on paper (both UI's losses last year were to top 10 blue-chip rosters in Ohio State and Notre Dame). Plus, they will be coming into Autzen. I think 30 years ago was their only visit. USC will be visiting as well; but, its a trip they have made regularly since before Autzen opened. Should be less a factor.

Edited 10 hours ago10 hr by AnotherOD

Fun topic. Here's my take toughest to easiest.

1. At Iowa. A good defensive game but UO has way too much offense to keep it close. Ducks by 10.

2. At fuskies. Their improving offense gets smothered by UO's relentless defense with no answer for Moore to Moore. Ducks by 14.

3. Indiana. The Hoosiers take a step back this year but are still well coached and put up a fight for awhile. Ducks by 18.

4. SUC. As another humbling season approaches the end, a checked out SUC shows up at Autzen ready for their beatdown. Ducks by 20.

"Iowa hasn't allowed 30 points to an opponent at home for 56 straight games dating back to early 2016. .... just for reference, Oregon over the same stretch gave up 30+ at Autzen 12 times)."

That's a pretty crazy stat when you think about it in the modern era of football. Here's the highest scoring home opponents during that stretch. Aside from Michigan in 2022, most of the highest scores were by opponents mid-and-lower tier Big Ten. Appears the scoring defense shows up for the biggest opponents?

highest opponent score at Iowa's Kinnick Stadium:

2024:  21-Troy

2023:  16-Michigan St

2022:  27-Michigan

2021:  24-Purdue

2020:  21-Northwestern

2019:  20-Purdue

2018:  28-Nebraska

2017:  24-Purdue

2016:  38-Northwestern

Those same 9 seasons, Iowa's total season score allowed per game, both home and away:

17.8

14.8

13.4

19.2

16.0

14.0

17.8

19.9

18.8

Oregon will be on the road after a bye. Iowa will be at home after a bye.

19 minutes ago, HDuck said:

"Iowa hasn't allowed 30 points to an opponent at home for 56 straight games dating back to early 2016. .... just for reference, Oregon over the same stretch gave up 30+ at Autzen 12 times)."

That's a pretty crazy stat when you think about it in the modern era of football. Here's the highest scoring home opponents during that stretch. Aside from Michigan in 2022, most of the highest scores were by opponents mid-and-lower tier Big Ten. Appears the scoring defense shows up for the biggest opponents?

highest opponent score at Iowa's Kinnick Stadium:

2024:  21-Troy

2023:  16-Michigan St

2022:  27-Michigan

2021:  24-Purdue

2020:  21-Northwestern

2019:  20-Purdue

2018:  28-Nebraska

2017:  24-Purdue

2016:  38-Northwestern

If OBD are clicking on offense, that record will go away. Snow or no snow. They don't have any returning LBs this year. OBD are more physical, and our WRs aren't something Iowa can handle. This of course is predicated on Stein finally opening the offense up and letting his receivers get downfield (something they only did once in the Rose Bowl, which was a huge strategic error. With both Tez and Sadiq, you send the damn ball downfield. Whoever matches Tez's speed should get plenty of reps downfield this year. It is a requirement to winning the Natty).

That said, USC and the Fuskies. Fisch is a damn good coach, he won't get smacked again this year, and USC has way more horses than IU. What is that measurement, the 4 star and 5 star percentage? Yeah, USC will be a tougher outing.

7 hours ago, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Fun topic. Here's my take toughest to easiest.

1. At Iowa. A good defensive game but UO has way too much offense to keep it close. Ducks by 10.

2. At fuskies. Their improving offense gets smothered by UO's relentless defense with no answer for Moore to Moore. Ducks by 14.

3. Indiana. The Hoosiers take a step back this year but are still well coached and put up a fight for awhile. Ducks by 18.

4. SUC. As another humbling season approaches the end, a checked out SUC shows up at Autzen ready for their beatdown. Ducks by 20.

I am in line with this thinking. Iowa and UW are the two toughest games and are on the same list.

Indiana will take a step back. USC still has major problems on both lines. And I am not convinced that Maiava can make a decent decision in crunch time. Ducks by 3 scores.

Edited 1 hour ago1 hr by GeotechDuck