There is no doubt College Football’s newly expanded Playoffs have changed the definition of success, as a handful of teams consider themselves annual title contenders. They expect to reach the Championship Game every single year. And so do we as fans. Ever since Bo Nix’s stellar emergence in an Oregon uniform, the Ducks have been considered a lethal threat on ...

Who Do YOU Believe the Oregon Ducks Are?

Great article to stimulate our thinking Mike, and I do want to encourage any readers who have something to say? Write it up and email it to me at charles@fishduck.com as I welcome guest articles, especially in the off-season. (I need articles for our backlink orders that come in to pay the bills of both sites.)

You took me down memory lane, and what I and many Oregon fans feel is that...."it is our turn." We have been hosed, or cheated out of so many opportunities by injuries, bad calls, bad luck, etc. But while we are due, I also acknowledge what you wrote in your article in that...it is hard to win a 'Natty and we do need a little luck with injuries, with matchups in the Playoffs, with the bounces of the ball, or a replay showing grass blades touching a leg, etc.

Dan Lanning has this program at an elite level, as we will always be in the preseason top-ten--my belief. Now we need that final "ooomf" to get us over the line. Will it be a special player that emerges, or some new tactic or strategy that a new DC or OC unveils at a big moment? That is what if fun to watch for!

Thanks again for a fun article, Mike.

I think that the larger the field the lower the probability we win a Natty under Dan Lanning.

If the playoffs stayed at 4 teams, we would be basically guaranteed to win a Natty in the next 3-5 years.

But it didn't. The field expanded requiring more near 50:50 probability games to be won cutting your odds in half with every additional game.

And then there is NIL combined with the expanded playoffs that is levelling the playing field by spreading out the player and coaching talent.

No matter the size of the playoff field, about 2/3-3/4 of that number of teams has a chance to win given enough years for boosters to adjust.

It's just probabilities, and we can be in that conversation every year as contenders, but as one of 8+ that could win it all.

I think we are going to win a whole lot of games next year and I plan on enjoying every single one, but I've decided the probabilities of winning a Natty are so poor I'm not going to get wrapped around the axle about it.