Theory on why MC sticks with AB.

[EveryDayGreen]

A lesson I've learned in life is to think about others complexly, as in giving the benefit of the doubt and assuming someone might be balancing multiple things at once. So in that spirit, I've been pondering why on earth do we continue to see QB Brown out there, and here is my theory to share and discuss with all of you:

 

I think Cristobal's continued reliance on Brown actually has nothing to do with X's and O's. MC has shown some glaring weaknesses strategically, but the man is no dummy. Brown is a liability as a downfield passer, he struggles making correct reads, and as such, he hinders our offense's flexibility and creativity. But it's Brown's other attributes that put him over the top. Cristobal is obsessive about the mental game, toughness, physicality, you name it, and I think Cristobal is biding his time while the young guys learn the "intangibles" from Brown.

 

1) Resilient and tough -- MC's number one priority has been team culture. Every interview with him, it's the first and last thing out of his mouth. Brown is far from a technically gifted QB, but he continually bounces back from bad outings and just keeps working hard. We were down early to Stanford and UCLA, barely scraping by Cal and AZ, but Brown stayed the course and didn't get rattled. I would argue Cristobal values that resilience all the more for having seen how a rattled QB a la Braxton Burmeister and Tyler Shough can quickly get overwhelmed. Cristobal's message to the other QBs and the team is that toughness is more valuable than technique. And heck, if you want to talk about toughness, we do have to give Brown credit for marching into the Shoe and leading him team to a win.

 

2) Conservative and humble -- Brown's strongest point as a QB is arguably how careful he is with the ball. Yes he has a couple of egregious interceptions -- that pick at Stanford was embarrassing -- but for the most part Brown plays within himself and takes care of the ball. He is also a humble player who is not out to be a hero, sort of an anti-Johnny Football. Watch any interview with Brown and his ability to be self-critical and humble is actually pretty refreshing. Just like with resilience, I believe Cristobal is continuing to send the message to his team and his young QBs that humility and responsibility are more important that flashy play and long bomb throws.

 

3) The long game -- This is the critical piece, and it's an idea I first read somewhere else. Maybe someone said it awhile back on this forum. In this day and age of QB transfers, Cristobal is very likely acting cautiously with his three young QBs because he is afraid to pick one and see the other two walk out the door. The issue isn't that they are all worse than Brown, it's that they are all roughly even with each other. By not anointing a new QB yet, MC is able to keep developing all three guys. Play his cards right, and MC will keep all three through the spring and into fall camp, giving him over a full year before he has to pick the best one and likely see the other two transfer out. This is what handcuffs Cristobal from pulling Brown in the second half last night.

 

So, to be abundantly clear, I am not saying Cristobal is necessarily correct for making these judgments, if this is indeed what he's thinking. I personally would approach things differently, but from what I've seen in interviews with MC, this feels like where he would be at mentally. I would also bet good money that Thompson, Ashford, and Butterfield are each way ahead of Brown in terms of technique. It is the other side, the "mental" side, along with biding time developing the young guys, that is causing Cristobal to stick with Brown.

 

After the terrible performance at Utah, it's possible Cristobal changes his mind, but I would think being so close to the end of the year, Cristobal will continue to play the long game. Then again, if Brown plays another terrible first half against the Beavers, all bets are off.

 

What do you all think? Anything I missed in my analysis? Please feel free to pick this apart!

[Southwest Duck]

Great post!!

 

I’ll add one more

 

We were 9-1 and ranked 3 rd in the nation.  There is absolutely no way you make a qb change when you are winning.

 

We still have a chance to 3peat as pac12 champs, so AB will be our qb for rest of season.

[Dukduponquak]

I think you are just about right, as painful as it is to watch!

 

[30Duck]

I can't disagree with anything, Green, there has to be some strong thought process that Mario used to go, and stick, with AB, and it looks like you addressed them. AB does embody the message that Mario has sent out from Day 1, the Kid's backing him up have not in age, or time on the field, had enough time to build up those qualities. 

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/21/2021 at 9:36 AM, EveryDayGreen said:

Cristobal is very likely acting cautiously with his three young QBs because he is afraid to pick one and see the other two walk out the door.

 

I think you have hit it on the head, as there are pros and cons to each element of the decision.

 

And welcome to the forum!  Well written, well-thought out posts with paragraph/reading spaces to make it easy to read are well received here.

[Haywarduck]

I think it is a strength and a weakness. We are seeing Cristobal's loyalty and what can perceived as difficulty making tough decisions.

 

One he shows loyalty often. He is the first on the field when a player gets injured. He sticks with student athletes when they make mistakes. 

 

The problem I see is sometimes when players make mistakes you have to make tough choices, much like tough love. When our players shot at pedestrians he gave, what I would say is a minimum penalty. When Pittman was acting up and out he gave him a huge amount of lenience. Same with AB and his mistakes and inabilities.

 

I think we need Mario to be a stronger leader, someone who can give this team more tough love. There will be the Camden Lewis's who develop with the Cristobal way, but we need to see more tough choices.

 

Pull AB at times and give back-ups a chance. When a player screws up pull them and let them think about it for a while. Accountability is a positive in just about every situation. I am not sure there is enough accountability, and it might be affecting the mentality on the field and off. 

[Jon Joseph]

Great post. 

 

Brown is a career mediocre QB. His 1 win vs a top 25 team came in Columbus. He starts not because of talent but because of Mario Cristobal's comfort level.

 

Look how Stroud has improved this season at QB for Ohio State after opening with a shaky win at Minnesota and a loss vs Oregon. But based on what happened with last season's young QB, Shough, who retrogressed as the season went on, would Mario and this staff have gotten 9 wins out of Thompson or one of the younger players?

 

Mario wants his QB to be part of a grind-it-out- punch-you-in-the-mouth system. That 's it, period. Mario hid the NFL rookie of the year under a bushel. 

 

Post season, you will see at least 1 if not 2 Oregon QBs in the portal along with a number of WRs. In 2022, you will see a guy getting his first start in Atlanta vs Georgia. A guy who will not be prepared for the magnitude of the game.

 

For me, after the Stanford debacle, last night was a coaching crucible for Mario. He failed. He had the team no where close to playing like the #3 team in the country. The Pac-12 is once again out of the playoff and limited to the $4m which comes from its guaranteed P5 PO spot. The B1G and the SEC will be pulling down $14M a piece in PO money. There will be no PO appearance to sell to recruits.

 

Frankly, I have no interest in psychoanalyzing Mario's decision making. I don't care who he plays as long as the Ducks play up to the roster ranking and dominate a bad, bad conference.  As long as the Ducks consistently perform to a level worthy of the roster, Mario can 'think' whatever he likes. The way he is thinking now will NEVER result in a PO title for the Ducks.

 

Going to the Rose Bowl, if Oregon can defeat the Beavers, is not all that in 2021. The Rose Bowl in 2021 is an exhibition game between 2 multi-loss Pac-12 and B1G teams. It comes the day after the meaningful games, the playoff semi-finals are played. One day after the games that matter are played.

 

This Oregon team never should NEVER have lost to Stanford and to Utah. Never should have let a crummy team like Arizona and others, stay in the game.

 

Mario as a person? Yes. Mario as a recruiter? Yes. Mario as a Playoff winning coach? No.

[DCDuckfan]

Great post....I agree with most of what you said but would offer something to consider.

 

What if MCs loyalty is going too far to where he's losing the team commitment by players on the team.  I posted earlier that I believe that the #1 WRs all asked to leave the team this week because as a group they felt that continuing to play in this offense, with this QB could only negatively impact their ability to get through the season healthy and have a shot to play in the NFL .  I also noticed toward the end of the game last night, that Devon Williams and AB had to be separated coming off the field (I think it was after the 4th down pass through the end-zone).  Lastly, KT seemed like he was emotionless and just going through the motions for much of the game when he was waiting to line up, or on the sidelines.  

 

My point is this, I agree that those qualities that you stated AB seems to posses are very important as is the loyalty MC is showing AB...so long as it isn't to the detriment to the rest of the team.  It feels to me that we may have reached that point where the rest of the team feels that team success as well as individual player success over the long term is not carrying enough weight in the coaching staffs decision making.  If so, the stubbornness of the MC could be a creating a long-term problem from an organizational standpoint, not just in the context of game time adjustments.  Is he underestimating the unintended consequences and their impacts regarding the things you mentioned and now they are manifesting in players no longer playing for the team and their teammates.  

 

Just a thought...

Edited November 21, 2021 by DCDuckfan

[webfootfan]

That was one of the best posts I have seen and very thought provoking.  After being thoroughly discouraged and wondering if there is anybody who can take over AB's spot for next year , it gave a different and hopeful perspective.  

 

Thanks. 

[Triphibius]

Yes, thanks for the post EveryDay, and my compliments to everyone in the thread. My thoughts:

1. AB probably does give Oregon "a better chance to win" than Ty Thompson, who was unimpressive when pressed into service a few weeks ago. He does not appear to be readly. 

 

2. MC has said that Ashford is not yet at the same level of performance as the other two. 

 

3. How about Butterfield? He looked very good the spring game. The issue (for Moorhead) may be that he does not have the physique to run the ball as required in the current offense. This may not be a long-term problem if he can add some muscle as Herbert did, and Moorhead can modify the offfense to suit his talents.

 

4. I admire AB as a young man, for all the reasons EveryDay mentioned. That said, why is he here at all? Shough, based on his performance this year prior to his injury, had more potential. I wonder whether Moorhead, who did not recruit Shough, did not undermine his confidence by signing AB, thereby creating the problem Oregon now faces. 

[DurangoJim]

Great post and great add on comments. Pretty intuitive reads - maybe some you should in taking snaps?!

 

I think the MC loyalty issue has hit the fulcrum balance of tipping to the wrong side. Correctable, but it needs to be addressed. Hopefully he either sees this, or someone (maybe Rob Mullens?) has that frank discussion. 
 

I fully feel MC’s decision to stick with Brown has gotten us to where we are, for both the 9 and the 2.

 

If we can keep the talent we supposedly have in the wings, and they all learn MC’s best-side preaching of team-first loyalty, we might come out of this with a deeper, better, more effective team next year. A LOT is riding on next week - both in the short term and long term gain. 
 

GO DUCKS!!

[RkyMtnGuy]

A lot of conjecture going on so I'll add mine: MC plays Brown because MC wants to run the ball between the tackles 65% of the time and Brown's obvious limitations let him justify it....for all MC's strengths he doesn't do down the field aerial football. If he doesn't change he'll lose the locker room....and his skill players.

If I'm Thompson and Butterfield and some of those young 4 star receivers for that matter the first thing I'm doing when the season's over is marching into MC's office and asking him one question point blank: "Next year are you going to bag this RPO garbage and the constant running between the tackles and instill a pro-style spread the field and throw the ball down the field offense with a 60-40 pass to run ratio yes or no?"....if the answer's no I'm immediately in the transfer portal.

Don't be surprised if something along these lines happens....these guys aren't here to sit on the bench and watch inferior talented game managers run ground and pound. They have NFL aspirations and if transferring furthers those aspirations they'll do it.....and they should.

Jon Joseph above got it right - Ohio State played their freshman, he wasn't ready because no freshman is, and now he's playing great and next year they'll have a stacked roster like Oregon (if things hold) and an experienced QB unlike Oregon....this team will finish with 3 losses and little to show because MC doesn't do 21st century offense.....problem is the recruits do....being stubborn when you're right is to be commended....being stubborn when you're wrong has consequences and I suspect the Mycah Pittman defection is a canary in the coal mine kind of thing...we'll see.

[DUCKED]

On 11/21/2021 at 10:34 AM, DCDuckfan said:

Great post....I agree with most of what you said but would offer something to consider.

 

What if MCs loyalty is going too far to where he's losing the team commitment by players on the team.  I posted earlier that I believe that the #1 WRs all asked to leave the team this week because as a group they felt that continuing to play in this offense, with this QB could only negatively impact their ability to get through the season healthy and have a shot to play in the NFL .  I also noticed toward the end of the game last night, that Devon Williams and AB had to be separated coming off the field (I think it was after the 4th down pass through the end-zone).  Lastly, KT seemed like he was emotionless and just going through the motions for much of the game when he was waiting to line up, or on the sidelines.  

 

My point is this, I agree that those qualities that you stated AB seems to posses are very important as is the loyalty MC is showing AB...so long as it isn't to the detriment to the rest of the team.  It feels to me that we may have reached that point where the rest of the team feels that team success as well as individual player success over the long term is not carrying enough weight in the coaching staffs decision making.  If so, the stubbornness of the MC could be a creating a long-term problem from an organizational standpoint, not just in the context of game time adjustments.  Is he underestimating the unintended consequences and their impacts regarding the things you mentioned and now they are manifesting in players no longer playing for the team and their teammates.  

 

Just a thought...

Excellent.

 

Loyalty is a nice attribute, but it can go too far which I think we’re seeing in Cristobal’s handling of Brown. I think the team feels the same way. Williams throwing up his hands when Brown short hopped an easy pass to him was the result of built up frustration. I didn’t notice the post game dustup between them, but that’s not a good look. Team morale seems to be an issue right now.

[Tbird]

Talk about over thinking it. It’s simple - AB is better than Ty at this point. MC shows no reluctance to play freshmen. If Ty we’re the better QB he would play; he is not the better QB. People need to accept this.

[EveryDayGreen]

Like a lot of you are saying, I'd be worried after a game like that that the players are fed up. But these are the kinds of losses that great coaches learn from and bad coaches dig in and get defensive about. Cristobal is absolutely a stubborn coach, but again I don't think he's a fool. After being humiliated on national television, maybe it's finally a wake up call. For all the other losses in his tenure here, I think last night was the first time where MC truly saw the limits of being all brawn and no brains.

 

Every other loss, even the really bad ones, could be chalked up to fluke, bad effort, came out flat... Most of us saw the strategic issues, but it felt like MC always went with the effort/toughness/drive excuse. This time, the defense gave it their all at the start, and the offense stalled because of the QB. The result: an equally tough but significantly smarter team kicked the **** out of us.

 

On 11/21/2021 at 9:41 AM, Southwest Duck said:

There is absolutely no way you make a qb change when you are winning.

 

Up until last night, we had one somewhat fluky loss on the year, and it was easy to argue getting AB in long term. The shine has now worn off. What will we see vs OSU? Personally I would think we stick with Brown to start, but if things go south in the first half, we will see if MC is the learn-from-it type or the stubborn-beyond-reason type.

 

I appreciate hearing everyone's thoughts on this. Like Jon Joseph said, it is a bit of "psychoanalyzing." It's been on my mind for weeks, like I'm sure for all of you, as to why AB hasn't been properly benched even once, especially since MC and Moorhead were so clearly willing to bench Shough last year. So after sleeping on it, this is the best I could think of. Love the discussion here.

[81DuckAlum]

On 11/21/2021 at 11:50 AM, Charles Fischer said:

.....with paragraph/reading spaces to make it easy to read are well received here.

[1Ducker1]

On 11/21/2021 at 1:08 PM, 81DuckAlum said:

My cats do this to me all the time--

[Charles Fischer]

You wouldn't believe this but....

 

Years ago we had two cats that really loved the attention from me, and when I would work in my home office--one would insist on plopping on my papers on the desk, and the other plop on my lap and insist I make room.  Athena, (named after the Greek Goddess of Wisdom, but this cat was dumb-as-a-post) and Samantha were a blast.  The latter lived to be 23 years old, and my joke was...."she lived for tomorrow's attention."

 

I don't have any now due to my schedule, but the cat GIFs bring back fun memories.