The Beginning of the NFL Minor League

[mrspenney]

The NCAA is now a toothless dragon. They can do very little regarding the portal as far as regulating. Just saw where a player had entered the portal from Clemson a year or, two ago, and entered the portal again to go back to Clemson. The Feds, through courts as well as the states have taken most regulatory ability away from the NCAA. College football is rapidly becoming a minor league NFL. A significant number of players are really professionals already. Look at Texas, all scholarship OL's will receive $50,000 a year. Texas A & M spent $30M+ on this years recruiting class. Thiboudeaux made close to 1/2 a million this year.

 

Some so called experts are prediction college football as we know it today will shrink down to a super league of 24 to maybe 36 teams. Teams like Oregon State, Washington State, Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa State, West Virginia, Missouri, Mississippi, Illinois, Purdue, Wake Forest, Duke as examples will not be able to compete. This is not good for the players when you consider that if the above happens there will be over 3,000 scholarships that will disappear.

 

When you have head coaches from Alabama and Georgia saying something has to be done about NIL and the Portal, then that should get peoples attention. Obviously Oregon is and will be able to compete, but this is not healthy for the game and in my opinion the players.

[Duck 1972]

I believe we will end up with multiple divisions kind of like the lower levels we currently have.

 

This makes more sense than there only being a super league.

 

 

 

[Haywarduck]

When a kid is making 50k a year with free room and board what incentive does he have to work hard. Most kids need something to work towards, a carrot out there they have to keep reaching for. The only thing they will be reaching for is the phone to call dominos to deliver pizza and wings.

 

Whoever is selling kegerators, and delivers kegs is going to be one of the big beneficiaries. The Texas A@M experiment is destined to self destruct. 

 

My prediction is the programs who focus on academic help while helping kids become successful longterm will win out at this game in the end. Right now it looks like whoever spends the most is going to win. I don't think the final outcome has been seen yet.

[Jon Joseph]

CFB today is the NFL without: a salary cap,; NFL restrictions on free agency,; NFL roster control; NFL rules against roster tampering and without the NFL's equitable distribution of media revenue.

 

CFB as we knew it it and as Mrspenny so noted, cannot and will not continue 'as-is.'  

 

Few teams outside of the B1G and the SEC have the money and the interest to compete at the highest level of CFB competition. Frankly, I don't see a number of B1G teams with the money wanting anything to do with paying $70M under the guise of NIL for a new class of recruits.

 

One could see 'this' coming at the beginning of the BCS. And more and more folks are coming to realize what CFB has become since SEC commissioner Roy Kramer convinced the rest of CFB that college football needed 1 true champion. 

 

Compare where the Pac-12 and the SEC were back in 1983, when the BCS began, to the gap roster-wise and $-wise, between the 2 conferences today.

 

Dump the playoff, take back the Rose Bowl, cancel all games scheduled vs the SEC and schedule no more games vs the academically challenged SEC; where athletics just mean more than academics.

 

With BYU already on the Oregon OOC schedule, if Oregon paid what it had to to get out of the opening game 'at' UGA, a school that once canceled a home and home series with the Ducks, in favor of an opening game vs say San Jose State, I'd be all in favor.

 

Money is not evil. The love of money is evil.

 

 

Edited January 18, 2022 by Jon Joseph

[Mudslide]

Though many have blessed or praised the idea of athletes sharing in the wealth of college sports, I have long not been one of them.  Beyond a full ride tuition plus room and board, medical, etc, the NIL ruling will certainly change college sports as we know it.  It will ruin amateur competition in the major draw sports.  Certainly the major sports will become the minor leagues of the pro sports in football, basketball, and baseball.  This, in and of itself, will drive the elimination of conference alignments as we know it.  As has been noted, the NCAA is already, even now, a hollowed out (amateur collegiate sports) administrative organization.

 

In the past, I have opined that the 'minor' sports, e.g. swimming, T&F, golf, etc, will the last bastion of college commitments-LOI-scholarship amateur sports.  But of even that, I'm no longer certain.  The OP is right on the money when discussing the certainly approaching mega-conference.  It's possible that there will still exist institutions that stay the course of scholarships-only for the big 3 sports...for those kids not good enough to make some new "Minor Leagues of College Sports Conference" money.  (That is my personal hope for at least partial salvation from this earthquake of collegiate sports change.)

 

Commitments and LOIs will be replaced by formal labor contracts.  New labor unions will form around this new group of "employees".  Agents will begin hustling high school athletes and no school or other form of administration will be able to stop it.  And it can get a little more dystopian after that.  Elite athletes will not "need" an education.  Why would they when at 17 they're making...say, 10 times what their parents earn? (A proper education is hard enough to come by these days as it is.)  Athletics were once a means to an end...the goal of obtaining a good education and preparation for success in life.  And now athletics are becoming its own end.

 

I could drag this scenario out quite a ways.  But it depresses me.  I'm glad I'm as old as rocks.  Greed of the athletes (and their unions) drove me from professional sports decades ago.  And now I fear losing respect for the organization that will be college sports and its players.  But then, I always have M*A*S*H* reruns to watch.........

 

 

 

[Haywarduck]

Get of my lawn college football!

[Charles Fischer]

Human nature is to know that the cliff is coming, but we delay and wait until we get to the edge of it....look down, and decide, "we have to come up with a solution without plunging into it."

 

I am confident that human nature will play out; we will wait until it gets REALLY BAD, and then some event or two (the cliff) will finally prompt reform.

 

And I will cheer Our Beloved Ducks on...

 

NIL, Portal...no problem.

[Haywarduck]

It is certainly easy to get apocalyptic as many did when the radio came about and it was the end of everything. Then tv was certainly the end of it all. Now the phone is definitely the end of this generation.

 

While I can see the negatives of the NIL and the portal it is just another step in the long line of the good and bad fighting it out. I just hope Oregon can finds its way to stay on the right side of what is best for these amazing young people I see out there. 

 

We have done a very good job of doing the right thing so far. I have to trust Oregon will stay on the right side, and the end won't come anywhere close to Eugene and OBD! I do think bad will take down some of the programs out there, at least temporarily.

[Drake]

The well heeled student athlete is a rockstar on campus. Everyone knows they are the “hired gun”. Brought in to win that championship for the alumni.

 

Young athletes, away from home for the first time, making a substantial income in the care free environment of the expectations put on them from whomever is the highest bidder. 
 

What a heartwarming storyline. 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/18/2022 at 8:16 PM, Haywarduck said:

It is certainly easy to get apocalyptic as many did when the radio came about and it was the end of everything. Then tv was certainly the end of it all. Now the phone is definitely the end of this generation.

 

While I can see the negatives of the NIL and the portal it is just another step in the long line of the good and bad fighting it out. I just hope Oregon can finds its way to stay on the right side of what is best for these amazing young people I see out there. 

 

We have done a very good job of doing the right thing so far. I have to trust Oregon will stay on the right side, and the end won't come anywhere close to Eugene and OBD! I do think bad will take down some of the programs out there, at least temporarily.

 

 

The Alliance, 40 teams, has 27 AAU member schools. 13 B1G, 9 Pac-12, 5 (this surprised me) ACC - Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, UNC, UVA. However, private schools BC, Miami, part-member Notre Dame and Wake, are all highly rated academic institutions. And certainly there would be no cause to kick out any existing member school. And B12 schools Iowa State and Kansas are AAU members and possible candidates to join in?

 

(ACC is in a terrible media deal through 2036. It can only restructure the agreement with ESPN, $17M per annum per ACC school, if Notre Dame joins as a full time member.)

 

I would love to see the 3 conferences, Notre Dame and perhaps the 2 B12 schools mentioned, form an Alliance with more heft than simply a vague OOC scheduling agreement.

 

Drop out of the so-called playoff after 2025 when the BCS x 2 ends. Establish reasonable rules regarding NIL, transfers, APR, etc. and conduct a post-season CFB tournament without the B12, SEC and G5.

 

As much money? No. But a chance to escape the influence of CFB media cartel ESPN and the crazy CFB arms race? Yes. Academic integrity? Yes. College not pro football? Yes.  A few schools off to the SEC? Perhaps.

 

IMO, FOX, CBS, NBC, TNT and others would be happy to bid on an Alliance postseason CFB tournament. Would be happy to have CFB media inventory.

 

Lose 4 + 5 star guys who value money over education? Yes. But there would be plenty of good CFB players attending these schools.

 

How about Pac-12 In The Daylight instead of Pac-12 After Dark?

 

The key to this is the B1G. A conference with enough money to keep up with the SEC in the CFB arms race. But I hope and think, that the B1G has enough integrity not to be interested in doing so?

 

The Pac-12 on its own? Sorry, but could be a CFB dead duck.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Duck 1972]

I have a different take on this. Look at the BB minor leagues. After your Sr yr in HS you can get drafted and sign to play and start on your career. Which is the best of the best players.

 

Or u can sign to play in the NCAA or lower divisions. If u make this choice and the coach wants u then u have to stay at least 3 yrs before u can be drafted to play pro. 

 

I don't see how that would be much different than what is going to happen now in CFB. 

 

Also money doesn't necessarily ruin your motivation. Some BB players that are drafted get large signing bonuses. U still have to be motivated or else you won't have a spot very long.

 

It will play out very similar for FB players. It's not going to be Armageddon. I still posit it's going to be fine.

 

 

 

 

[Mudslide]

On 1/18/2022 at 9:21 PM, Duck 1972 said:

I have a different take on this. Look at the BB minor leagues. After your Sr yr in HS you can get drafted and sign to play and start on your career. Which is the best of the best players.

 

Or u can sign to play in the NCAA or lower divisions. If u make this choice and the coach wants u then u have to stay at least 3 yrs before u can be drafted to play pro. 

 

I don't see how that would be much different than what is going to happen now in CFB. 

 

Also money doesn't necessarily ruin your motivation. Some BB players that are drafted get large signing bonuses. U still have to be motivated or else you won't have a spot very long.

 

It will play out very similar for FB players. It's not going to be Armageddon. I still posit it's going to be fine.

 

 

 

 

I would question whether the analogy is apt.  Football and baseball are quite different sports.  Professional football doesn't and won't have minor leagues in the style of MBB.  Further, even if the pros find a few high school players maturity worthy of drafting, that would be just a trickle compared to the players going to universities.  College football is a huge money sport...billions involved.  The NIL will still be in effect (even given some 'major league').  The law has spoken and players cannot be denied NIL monetary compensation. 

 

I agree that not everyone is motivated by money.  (A few have it already.)  But being good at sports (or the play acting business) is somehow worth MUCH more than almost every other occupation in the world.  Here is an example.  The President of the United States earns roughly $400,000 per year.  (That would be before any questionable sources of funds.  )  I believe the lowest allowed annual salary in the NFL is $600,000.  (Someone please correct me if I'm off the mark here.)  And certainly it is in the realm of likelihood that top athletes in the major sports will soon be (NIL) earning much more than their universities' presidents.

 

This seismic shift in college sports may or may not lead to something any of us currently foresee.  But for me...I see enough that I fear losing my interest in and backing of my beloved Ducks.

[Duck 1972]

I see what you're saying but I will never not be a Duck no matter what.

[DanLduck]

College football has always been the NFL minor league, or developmental league anyway. 

The problem now is lack of controls.

And the real controls will have to be legislated, which will be years away.

 

According to the Oregonian, athletes at our 2 Pac12 schools are averaging around $1000/athlete for NIL. That's not much.

 

We've all read about the big $$ at the Texas schools etc, but what happens when they don't win? 

I see donors backing down from huge payments if they don't get immediate success.

I know blue-chip players are needed, but anyone here actually think Sarkisian can win in the SEC?!

 

I'm hoping that after a few crazy years this thing settles down some. That big $$ will want, no, demand quick success. Winning the natty is tough to do, even for Saban. Pouring $$ into a team is no guarantee. 

 

Eventually some type of balance will develop and we will have a new normal. 

I hope.

[Mudslide]

On 1/19/2022 at 3:51 PM, DanLduck said:

College football has always been the NFL minor league, or developmental league anyway. 

The problem now is lack of controls.

And the real controls will have to be legislated, which will be years away.

 

According to the Oregonian, athletes at our 2 Pac12 schools are averaging around $1000/athlete for NIL. That's not much.

 

We've all read about the big $$ at the Texas schools etc, but what happens when they don't win? 

I see donors backing down from huge payments if they don't get immediate success.

I know blue-chip players are needed, but anyone here actually think Sarkisian can win in the SEC?!

 

I'm hoping that after a few crazy years this thing settles down some. That big $$ will want, no, demand quick success. Winning the natty is tough to do, even for Saban. Pouring $$ into a team is no guarantee. 

 

Eventually some type of balance will develop and we will have a new normal. 

I hope.

I hope, as well, DanL.  But...................