Food for Thought on Bo as a Starter With One Week Out

[Duck Fan 76]

I'm not really a believer in summary football statistics but here are the summarized stats for Bo, some 2021 comparison QB's and some recruiting stats that I think tells a bit of the story of Bo at Auburn.

 

Stats taken from https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/

 

Bo started at Auburn in:

2019 with a QB rating of 125, 377 attempts 57.6% 2542 yds, 16 TD’s and 6 int’s

2020 with a QB rating of 123.9, 357 attempts 59.9% 2415 yds, 12 TD’s and 7 int’s

2021 with a QB rating of 130, 323 attempts 61% 2294 yds, 11 TD’s and 3 int’s

 

Stetson Benett:

2021 with a QB rating of 176.7, 287 attempts 64.5% 2862 yds, 29 TD’s and 7 int’s

 

Bryce Young:

2021 with a QB rating of 167.5, 547 attempts 66.9% 4872 yds, 47 TD’s and 7 int’s

 

Anthony Brown:

2021 with a QB rating of 141.0, 390 attempts 64.1% 2989 yds, 19 TD’s and 7 int’s

 

 

The recent Gus Malzahn era at Auburn:

 

247 sports class recruiting rankings

2014 6^th

2015 8^th

2016 9^th

2017 9^th

2018 12^th

2019 13^th

2020 8^th

2021 18^th

 

Auburn season outcome

2016 8-5 AP preseason NR AP finish 24th

2017 10-4 AP preseason 12^th AP finish 10th

2018 8-5 AP preseason 9^th AP finish NR

2019 9-4 AP preseason 16^th AP finish 14^th

2020 6-5 AP preseason 11^th AP finish NR

2021 6-7 AP preseason NR AP finish NR

 

When Bo started as a sophomore in 2019 the talented roster was ranked by 247 sports at 8, 9, 9, 12 (average rank 9.5). 

Auburn had a really good 2017 season and the media felt confident that Auburn in 2019 would be decent but not win the SEC and they ended up that way.

2020 is a bust by any measure but in 2021 Auburn had an average recruiting rank of 10.5 and the preseason poll had them not ranked and they ended up not ranked.

 

Why would Auburn end up with a prediction of not ranked in 2021 with so much talent on the roster?  Some of that is the gauntlet that is the SEC with Georgia and Alabama sitting atop the recruiting charts like they do. 

 

I think however Auburn was/is a serial underperformer and the reality is the Auburn teams weren't developing the way they should based on roster talent.

 

Was that Bo's fault as the QB or was that a much larger team development problem?  I think if it was Bo, Malzahn would have sat him pretty early but he clearly was their best option to win for the majority of the season.

 

I think we will find out next Saturday if Bo was ultimately a failed recruit or if he was recruited into a failed system.  If Ty starts then DL saw some serious deficits in Bo that weren't offset by live game experience.  if Bo starts then DL has had the Spring and Fall to play catchup on developing him and likely deprogramming some bad football that Auburn was teaching.

 

What say the OBDF?

 

[Mic]

Wow.  You've certainly done your homework.

 

I'm going out on a long, flimsy limb here and predict (always stupid) that Bo Nix has his most productive year as a QB this year at Oregon with Coach Kenny Dillingham scheming the offense around his talent.  Barring injury.  Whether or not this helps Oregon, we'll just have to wait and see.

[Drake]

Based on Auburn’s struggles last year I wouldn’t expect impressive numbers from any of its offense. They ended the season with a 6 - 7 record. Oregon was certainly not an offensive juggernaut last year, but won 10 games (10 - 4 record).

Oregon is expected to win 8 to 10 games this season. I suppose I expect any QB, including Bo Nix, to post decent statistics for the season if they win more games than they lose. 
 

If Bo Nix is handed the starting job I am not anticipating him to all of the sudden become a TD passing machine. However, I anticipate that our QB throws for more than 19 TDs this year. 

[GODUCKS15]

Starting behind what arguably is the best OL in CFB I think Bo has a chance to do very well. It would seem to me that Bo could be his own worst enemy. If he stays under control then he and the Ducks could have a very good season.

[Pac10again]

go ducks

Edited August 27, 2022 by Pac10again

[Pac10again]

On 8/27/2022 at 1:40 PM, Drake said:

Based on Auburn’s struggles last year I wouldn’t expect impressive numbers from any of its offense. They ended the season with a 6 - 7 record. Oregon was certainly not an offensive juggernaut last year, but won 10 games (10 - 4 record).

Oregon is expected to win 8 to 10 games this season. I suppose I expect any QB, including Bo Nix, to post decent statistics for the season if they win more games than they lose. 
 

If Bo Nix is handed the starting job I am not anticipating him to all of the sudden become a TD passing machine. However, I anticipate that our QB throws for more than 19 TDs this year. 

 

 

 

 "If Bo Nix is handed the starting job I am not anticipating him to all of the sudden become a TD passing machine" 

 

Why not?  Best O-line in the pac 12, second best set of receivers in the Pac, and playing against very weak SECONDARIES all season. Not against(Alabama, Georgia,Florida, and LSU). Bo's played against the best of the best his entire career(all while running for his life)  Its gonna be Disneyland for him after Georgia.

 

 

All of this is assuming our O-line, and running game, is going to be as good as most of you think.

Edited August 27, 2022 by Pac10again

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/27/2022 at 3:10 PM, Pac10again said:

Why not?

There could be some valid reasons why....

 

Regarding Bo Nix: Beware 'Bandwagon Buy-In'

FISHDUCK.COM

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Bo Nix was a highly touted five-star recruit, a player that draws mixed emotions from fans. Will Oregon offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham help launch Nix...

 

[Pac10again]

On 8/27/2022 at 7:02 PM, Charles Fischer said:

There could be some valid reasons why....

 

Regarding Bo Nix: Beware 'Bandwagon Buy-In'

FISHDUCK.COM

---

Bo Nix was a highly touted five-star recruit, a player that draws mixed emotions from fans. Will Oregon offensive coordinator...

 

I hear you and I could certainly be mistaken. 

[Haywarduck]

Bo might be all that and more, but maybe Ty is too.  I hope we see all three of our qb's excel and even Ashford become all he can be. 

 

I don't think the question is who is the best, the question will be how good is our best. That is the question I have been wondering for years now!

 

Are we, again, an elite qb making program!

[Duck Fan 76]

On 8/27/2022 at 7:02 PM, Charles Fischer said:

There could be some valid reasons why....

I agree there is plenty of reason to be cautious with Bo but the film I watch tells me to be suspicious of the Auburn/SEC fan narrative.  Here's an article written after Auburn's lopsided loss to Georgia last year.

 

Bo Nix taking brunt of Auburn fan criticism after lopsided Georgia loss

WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM

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Bo Nix was held to minus-16 rushing yards by Georgia's vaunted defense.

 

 

BTW, the meanest tweet was definitely from Q: "If Bo Nix hadn’t accidentally beaten Oregon his freshman year he’d be selling McChickens right now".

 

Here is the 11 minute highlight video of Georgia at Auburn last year.

 

 

Georgia had 231 passing yards and 201 rushing.

Auburn had 272 passing yards and 46 rushing.

 

Bo's interception bounced off his receivers facemask for the pick.

 

To me the key statistic (If there even is such a thing) was Bennet had a 66.7% completion rate with 11 yards per pass and Bo had a 55.8% completion rate for 6 yards per pass.

 

For the Oregon game watch out for the Georgia run game to setup the play-action over the top. If Oregon key's on the run and our DB's bite on play-action there will be plenty of Georgia big plays.  Those big plays get the offense in a catchup mode forcing bad throws and demoralizes players.  

 

Georgia is going to want to establish a 2:1 ratio of run plays to pass plays. Oregon's defense (and offense) needs to push Georgia out of that and into having to be aggressive with it's passing game to capitalize on its shifty blitz schemes.  If Oregon's defense can do that, expect the wheels to come off the Georgia offense.  Here is the highlights of the SEC championship last year and Georgia's only loss.

 

 

Georgia had 340 passing yards and 109 rushing.

Alabama had 421passing yards and 115 rushing.

 

Bennet had a 60.4% completion rate with 7.1 yards per pass and Young had a 59.1% completion rate for 9.6 yards per pass.

 

Bennet threw 2 legitimate interceptions.  The first was in the third quarter when Georgia was down 17-31 and the second was a pick 6 early in the fourth.

 

Alabama had 7 penalties for 85 yards, mostly pass interference.  I'd like to see Oregon play clean but sometimes interference is a good way to stop those really big plays that can kill morale/momentum.

 

Anybody know where the officiating team is coming in from?  If it's SEC that could be an issue for Oregon as the SEC calls a slightly different game than the PAC.  Let's hope it's the MAC.

 

 

 

 

[idontrollonshobbas]

On 8/28/2022 at 2:25 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Anybody know where the officiating team is coming in from?  If it's SEC that could be an issue for Oregon as the SEC calls a slightly different game than the PAC.  Let's hope it's the MAC.

 

Nothing is worse than the PAC-12 officials.....who, rumor has it, is considering flagging thought crime this season.

 

I wish we had SEC officiating every PAC-12 game.  Those folks understand the "flow of the game" and when to swallow the whistle.

 

Bear Bryant once said there is a penalty on every play.....PAC-12 officials get paid by the flag apparently.

[Duck Fan 76]

There's always plan "C" and we tell everyone Bo hit up the tanning beds...

 

[woundedknees]

If we're "flagging thought crime" here, the preponderance of penalties should fall on whomever thought these guys were a good choice for 'officials'!

[DazeNconfused]

On 8/28/2022 at 2:25 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

I agree there is plenty of reason to be cautious with Bo but the film I watch tells me to be suspicious of the Auburn/SEC fan narrative.  Here's an article written after Auburn's lopsided loss to Georgia last year.

 

Bo Nix taking brunt of Auburn fan criticism after lopsided Georgia loss

WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM

---

Bo Nix was held to minus-16 rushing yards by Georgia's vaunted defense.

 

 

BTW, the meanest tweet was definitely from Q: "If Bo Nix hadn’t accidentally beaten Oregon his freshman year he’d be selling McChickens right now".

 

Here is the 11 minute highlight video of Georgia at Auburn last year.

 

 

Georgia had 231 passing yards and 201 rushing.

Auburn had 272 passing yards and 46 rushing.

 

Bo's interception bounced off his receivers facemask for the pick.

 

To me the key statistic (If there even is such a thing) was Bennet had a 66.7% completion rate with 11 yards per pass and Bo had a 55.8% completion rate for 6 yards per pass.

 

For the Oregon game watch out for the Georgia run game to setup the play-action over the top. If Oregon key's on the run and our DB's bite on play-action there will be plenty of Georgia big plays.  Those big plays get the offense in a catchup mode forcing bad throws and demoralizes players.  

 

Georgia is going to want to establish a 2:1 ratio of run plays to pass plays. Oregon's defense (and offense) needs to push Georgia out of that and into having to be aggressive with it's passing game to capitalize on its shifty blitz schemes.  If Oregon's defense can do that, expect the wheels to come off the Georgia offense.  Here is the highlights of the SEC championship last year and Georgia's only loss.

 

 

Georgia had 340 passing yards and 109 rushing.

Alabama had 421passing yards and 115 rushing.

 

Bennet had a 60.4% completion rate with 7.1 yards per pass and Young had a 59.1% completion rate for 9.6 yards per pass.

 

Bennet threw 2 legitimate interceptions.  The first was in the third quarter when Georgia was down 17-31 and the second was a pick 6 early in the fourth.

 

Alabama had 7 penalties for 85 yards, mostly pass interference.  I'd like to see Oregon play clean but sometimes interference is a good way to stop those really big plays that can kill morale/momentum.

 

Anybody know where the officiating team is coming in from?  If it's SEC that could be an issue for Oregon as the SEC calls a slightly different game than the PAC.  Let's hope it's the MAC.

 

 

 

 

Heck of a post. I watched both the videos and stopped them pre-snap to look at the D sets. 

 

Bo makes some awesome throws, but they don't show many of his misses. Based on his good throws you gotta feel like he can make a jump here this year with Dilly, we will see though.

 

Will Anderson the Bama edge has one heck of a get off when he wants to, man! 

 

The Dawgs OL communicated well and did a good job picking stuff up, they didn't blow many assignments. I noticed the Dawgs DB's lost some guys switching off in zone, I seems they played more man-to-man in the Natty.

 

It also seems like Lanning's scheme was way more aggressive and disguised his pressures more than D-Rut. But I maybe I'm just being hard on D-Rut based on how irked I was last season. 

 

Nice post man, good work and thanks.

Edited August 28, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[Duck Fan 76]

On 8/28/2022 at 3:41 PM, DazeNconfused said:

Bo makes some awesome throws, but they don't show many of his misses. B

Excellent point, he definitely threw some poor balls but I just didn't feel that was was what kept Auburn out of the game.  If anything their abysmal run game against an amazing Georgia defense was the key to their loss. 

 

What do you think the key to Oregon having success on the run will be?  They don't have the mobile line like Alabama and I don't think size will be critical given how powerful the Georgia front is.  I'm thinking Oregon's run game needs some scheme help to be effective on Saturday.  It would be nice if KD kept some of the new run attack under wraps and can surprise Georgia early.     

[DazeNconfused]

On 8/28/2022 at 4:00 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Excellent point, he definitely threw some poor balls but I just didn't feel that was was what kept Auburn out of the game.  If anything their abysmal run game against an amazing Georgia defense was the key to their loss. 

 

What do you think the key to Oregon having success on the run will be?  They don't have the mobile line like Alabama and I don't think size will be critical given how powerful the Georgia front is.  I'm thinking Oregon's run game needs some scheme help to be effective on Saturday.  It would be nice if KD kept some of the new run attack under wraps and can surprise Georgia early.     

Well to not run into 8 defenders in the box like Mario would for starters.

 

The UGA inside backers are new so they are either going to be slow on their reads or jump their reads. We could run some inside zone, misdirection, fly sweep looks where we give it or fake handoff on the sweep. Coach Boles had that Down-G play that we can get after the backers with. 

 

We also need to attack the backers in the pass game, maybe we can hit a RB for a wheel route on a big play. 

 

None of us are really savvy on Dillys playbook, so we are going to learn lots.

 

 

Edited August 28, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[Duck Fan 76]

On 8/28/2022 at 4:11 PM, DazeNconfused said:

The UGA inside backers are new so they are either going to be slow on their reads or jump their reads.

Draw RPO maybe?  They are gonna be hot to put Bo on his butt.  Wildcat in obvious running situations.  Like you said, I guess we will find out when everyone else does what the Oregon run attack looks like.  RPO is kinda tricky with shifty defenses and Georgia is super shifty.

[Charles Fischer]

Most RPOs were designed to put the weakside linebacker in a 4-2-5 defense in a conflicted situation.  Kirby Smart, and now Lanning have a new way around that with the Mint defense and I will begin analysis articles of that new defense for Oregon this Thursday.  I do not think we can run RPOs against Georgia...

 

  It may not be a good fit.

[SoGaDawg]

On 8/28/2022 at 8:11 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Draw RPO maybe?  They are gonna be hot to put Bo on his butt.  Wildcat in obvious running situations.  Like you said, I guess we will find out when everyone else does what the Oregon run attack looks like.  RPO is kinda tricky with shifty defenses and Georgia is super shifty.

I believe the RPO can be very effective so long as the QB can make the correct reads.  But the way that GA defense acts pre-snap with their alignment and attempts to disguise assignments and coverages will likely make it a tough job for even a veteran QB to consistently make the correct reads.

[JunkyardDawg]

On 8/28/2022 at 5:25 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Georgia is going to want to establish a 2:1 ratio of run plays to pass plays. Oregon's defense (and offense) needs to push Georgia out of that and into having to be aggressive with it's passing game to capitalize on its shifty blitz schemes.  If Oregon's defense can do that, expect the wheels to come off the Georgia offense.

This is a common misconception about Georgia football.  Georgia actually prefers a 1:1 ratio of run to pass in non-garbage time scenarios.  For example, in the first half of all games last year the Dawgs ran the ball 250 times and passed 251 times.  Hard to get more balanced than that.  

 

More to your point though, of course success in the run game is a great help to the passing game, but what team doesn't throw the ball better when the running game is also working?  Well, other than Mike Leach offenses at least.  

 

 

[SoGaDawg]

On 8/28/2022 at 8:22 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Most RPOs were designed to put the weakside linebacker in a 4-2-5 defense in a conflicted situation.  Kirby Smart, and now Lanning have a new way around that with the Mint defense and I will begin analysis articles of that new defense for Oregon this Thursday.  I do not think we can run RPOs against Georgia...

 

  It may not be a good fit.

I agree.  I look forward to reading your analysis of the Mint defense.  I certainly don’t have a firm grasp of this defense.  I do think this scheme is one of the reasons that GA has been so effective at stopping the run in recent years.

[Duck Fan 76]

On 8/28/2022 at 5:22 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Kirby Smart, and now Lanning have a new way around that with the Mint defense and I will begin analysis articles of that new defense for Oregon this Thursday.

I can't wait to read that one!

 

If we can't run RPO doesn't that put us in a serious jam since KD is in the Norvell lineage?  

[Duck Fan 76]

On 8/28/2022 at 5:43 PM, JunkyardDawg said:

For example, in the first half of all games last year the Dawgs ran the ball 250 times and passed 251 times.

Nice! thanks for the correction.

[DazeNconfused]

On 8/28/2022 at 5:22 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Most RPOs were designed to put the weakside linebacker in a 4-2-5 defense in a conflicted situation.  Kirby Smart, and now Lanning have a new way around that with the Mint defense and I will begin analysis articles of that new defense for Oregon this Thursday.  I do not think we can run RPOs against Georgia...

 

  It may not be a good fit.

How about I get you an eye roll going and say we should run some two back offsets with wonky line splits for a few plays? haha

 

The GoGo look -- Dilly has run some two back sets; I like some of the offset two back run plays that are not something UGA has seen.

 

I'm going to be watching if Dilly does this. I just can't let go seeing a few GoGo tweaks thrown in once in a while. I gonna stay beating this horse for a few games. 

 

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/28/2022 at 6:02 PM, SoGaDawg said:

I look forward to reading your analysis of the Mint defense.

Just as a FYI...there is an enormous amount to this defense, and this Thursday is the beginning, the foundation to build upon.  Through the season will we add to it, and I've gotta think that the similarities between Georgia and Oregon will be substantial enough for Bulldog fans to benefit from them.

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/28/2022 at 6:31 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

If we can't run RPO doesn't that put us in a serious jam since KD is in the Norvell lineage?  

Technically, you can run RPOs off of nearly every play; when you successfully rip gains on the ground and they begin to adjust--you can hit the Bubble or a slant if the LBs commit too hard.  But I think that the Bulldogs have THE best defensive coach in the nation, (Lanning has to prove it a few more years) and I personally would be reluctant to run them.  

[DazeNconfused]

I say we give them a few plays to scratch their head over this. Look at the WR trips at the field side and RBs off set to that side and then the huge line splits on the weak side of the line. Betcha Kirby would call a timeout if he saw that.

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[DazeNconfused]

UGA has new inside backers I've said we should try to confuse and catch in a bust. 

 

Lookie here, Coach Boles with a GoGo wheel route to attack the MLBs

 

The GoGo Offense: Mesh Wheel Concept

FISHDUCK.COM

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Coach Eric Boles dives into the mesh wheel concept utilized within Coach Brennan Marion's GoGo offense.