We Have One Data Point!

[Haywarduck]

Remember we have one data point to establish a whole lot of opinions off of. Probably the biggest question is just how good is Georgia, and we don't actually know.

 

If they struggle at all over the next few weeks of cream puffs we should have some legitimate concerns. They also could cruise to the SEC championship game and then win it all.

 

Just how much of this was a first game, road game fiasco, we don't know. If we dismantle EWU, then we may want to pause on the whole end of the world talk.

 

The biggest take I have is the first game of the season is the, least important game of the season. You build as the season progresses and finish strong. There is still a good chance that will occur.

 

What we will see over the next few weeks is just how resilient this Duck team is. That is probably the most important data point, and one we will have to wait on.

 

Love my Ducks, proud of my Ducks, Duck Strong, Go Ducks!

[AnotherOD]

It's a positive thought.

 

I don't want to speak for my fellow Duck fans but most of us aren't just seeing the program not really be able to compete against just Georgia.

 

It's getting rolled by Utah, getting pounded by Utah two weeks later, getting handled easily (by a just as depleted) Oklahoma team, then looking like an FCS program against Utah.

 

Losses? Ok, not good but ok. Not being able to meaningfully even stay in any of those game and compete? Something else.

[Desert Duck]

On 9/4/2022 at 1:33 PM, Haywarduck said:

Remember we have one data point to establish a whole lot of opinions off of. Probably the biggest question is just how good is Georgia, and we don't actually know.

 

Although Georgia has what appears to be a relatively soft schedule ahead of them, I expect that we are going to learn that Georgia is absolutely a Top-3 team in the nation -- and I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see them repeat as National Champions.

 

But I don't care... because there's no chance in heck that a reasonably decent team should have allowed themselves to be humiliated by 46 points... regardless of where we were playing.

 

I realize we're all looking for something encouraging to grab onto, but about the only good news I can come up with is somewhat twisted --- which is that we now play a relatively soft OOC & PAC-12 schedule the rest of the season.

 

And with this remaining schedule, I do expect the Ducks to compete going forward. But I'm not sure that's much of a compliment.

 

 

 

 

[Haywarduck]

Last season is water under the bridge.

 

This season we have little information to form a strong opinion, is my take. We can have strong emotional reactions, but we don't know much about Dan Lanning, nor this team.

[AnotherOD]

It is a positive thought.

 

Oregon does play in the Pac-12 and there is a lot of: WSU, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, Cal, Colorado, Washington, OSU, so if Oregon goes 9-4 or 8-5 a lot of people are gonna be happy and say "coaching change" and "rebuilding year".

 

Given the huge number of key guys likely leaving, 2023 most likely another 9-4 or 8-5 year and a lot of people are gonna be happy and say "still coaching change" and "rebuilding year", "five years to grow the bamboo".

 

And that is fine. I just wonder if we are seeing signs of a program which spent a lot of time and resources getting to where to where it is at, losing ground?

 

Both major roster composition stats have Oregon's roster between #7 and #9 nationally in talent level, and Oregon picked a new $5 million dollar coach and hired a lot of young coaches with some buzz. Oregon has spent maybe 3 decades now getting to the point it can make a legitimate argument most years it is somewhere between maybe 6 and 14 national program each year.

 

The Utah, Utah, Oklahoma, and now Georgia games are NOT showing a program competing at this level right now.

 

They aren't just losing. In those 4 games, while Oregon arguably was even in those games, the first half, Oregon has been outscored:

 

109 - 6

 

That's Vanderbilt numbers, that's Arizona numbers, that's Rice numbers, that's Rutgers territory.

 

And that's fine. People will disagree about whether it is a blip or something more.

 

I will say with mega conferences arriving (Oregon appearing to be on the outside right now), the Pac-12 continuing to decline, NIL, portal, huge disadvantages with TV money, continuing to be outside a major recruiting hotbeds, along with everything else...

 

That we might not be seeing Oregon looking like it can AT LEAST compete - like a top 10 type program it has spent 30 years building toward - may be a cause for concern amongst those of us (who for whatever reason) care about such things?

 

Not trying to be completely all "doom and gloom". I'd be happy to field positives.

 

[DimpleDucks]

On 9/4/2022 at 3:21 PM, AnotherOD said:

 

That we might not be seeing Oregon looking like it can AT LEAST compete - like a top 10 type program it has spent 30 years building toward - may be a cause for concern amongst those of us (who for whatever reason) care about such things?

 

Not trying to be completely all "doom and gloom". I'd be happy to field positives.

 

Very insightful, especially the last couple sentences. I don't see your post as doom and gloom, but some necessary reflection.

[Augduck]

Well reasoned post Hayward.  I get in the heat of battle things get said.  We all do it but some of the stuff yesterday was off the scales.

 

 I mean we had complaints about the coach's attire for pity sakes.

 

 It's very easy to coach from the comfort of our couches and see a replay 3 times  and then make a decision or decide a different play might have been better.

 

No doubt we were all disappointed but some of the commentary was a bit much and based on one game against a team that very likely could repeat as national champions.

 

 

 

[Mic]

On 9/4/2022 at 1:33 PM, Haywarduck said:

Remember we have one data point to establish a whole lot of opinions off of. Probably the biggest question is just how good is Georgia, and we don't actually know.

 

If they struggle at all over the next few weeks of cream puffs we should have some legitimate concerns. They also could cruise to the SEC championship game and then win it all.

Now that we have 3 data points how do you feel?  

 

It's still early in the 2022 season but the loss to Georgia has be salved a bit, esp with the man-handling of BYU. After next Saturday I think we will have enough 'data points' to assess this team fairly - we need this Pac-12 road game to complete that.  WSU is a worthy opponent.

[Haywarduck]

On 9/19/2022 at 2:40 PM, Mic said:

Now that we have 3 data points how do you feel?  

 

It's still early in the 2022 season but the loss to Georgia has be salved a bit, esp with the man-handling of BYU. After next Saturday I think we will have enough 'data points' to assess this team fairly - we need this Pac-12 road game to complete that.  WSU is a worthy opponent.

I would say we have a home win against who we should beat. We have a home win against a worthy opponent. We now need to win on the road, and this one will be a pretty tough road game. All is not lost if we struggle a bit on the road in Pullman. We would definitely need to win in Arizona, or we have a road problem.

 

So far I am very impressed with how Lanning is developing his version of the Ducks. I actually am really enjoying it, love the Lanning Ducks.

 

The next big tests after that are the rivals. Can Dan handle the season ending rivals. The dawgs at Autzen and then the beavs at Reser, which could be a big game. The other games will be interesting too, but the defining games are the rivals.

 

I suppose the championship and bowl games will be huge, but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves.

[Mic]

On 9/19/2022 at 4:29 PM, Haywarduck said:

I suppose the championship and bowl games will be huge, but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Correct-o-mundo!  With apologies to our Spanish speaking fans and friends.

[Haywarduck]

Or too far over our skis, ouch!

[Dr Hilarius]

GA got spanked by AL 41-24 last year in the SEC champ game but dominated the Natty against that same AL team a few weeks later. 

 

Good coaching and players’ determination can fix things in a hurry.

 

The last 2 data points have shown fundamentals and solid progress.  

 

Regardless, we are headed the right direction….

 

[EzDucksIt]

Mic said,

"It's still early in the 2022 season but the loss to Georgia has be salved a bit, esp with the man-handling of BYU. After next Saturday I think we will have enough 'data points' to assess this team fairly - we need this Pac-12 road game to complete that.  WSU is a worthy opponent."

 

Playing in Pullman, has always been interesting, along with worry some.  No matter WSU record, they could take the wind out of our sails.  The only thing I would say is, even if WSU is 3-0, the teams they have played have been mediocre at best.

 

Idaho is 1-2 and its lone win against a team that is 0-3.  Wisconsin  is 2-1, win against Illinois St 2-1and win against 0-4 New Mexico St.  Colorado St 0-3 and praying for mercy from now on.

 

I am trying to be realistic here and say that while 3-0 looks good and we should be cautious play Oregon Football like we have been there before.  Take it to them, play smart on offense.  Fix the issues with the secondary and contain the edges of the offense.  Pressure on the QB will be important.  Have they been really tested.  The season is still so young and Coach DL has them growing and improving as is the staff.

 

"WSU is a worthy opponent" I believe this to be true, too.  Practice like winners, come game day play like winners.  Do NOT take any team for granted.  Have faith in the process, says the coach.  Should Oregon win, the road games won't seem so scary.  Go Ducks!

[Mic]

On 9/19/2022 at 9:53 PM, EzDucksIt said:

Playing in Pullman, has always been interesting, along with worry some.  No matter WSU record, they could take the wind out of our sails.  The only thing I would say is, even if WSU is 3-0, the teams they have played have been mediocre at best.

 

Idaho is 1-2 and its lone win against a team that is 0-3.  Wisconsin  is 2-1, win against Illinois St 2-1and win against 0-4 New Mexico St.  Colorado St 0-3 and praying for mercy from now on.

 

Excellent research to flesh things out.  Yeah, WSU has benefitted from a favorable schedule but any team who can travel back east and beat a Big-10 team like Wisconsin deserves respect. 

 

Yes, Pullman has often been a difficult place to play for Oregon.  Wins there come with difficulty.  I expect Oregon will prevail but they will need to keep up the intensity they showed Saturday because the Cougars are gonna be hyped to the max with a grudge about not being ranked.  If O wins this one I think we will know Lanning's system is beginning to really work and we may see a real successful season.

[Drake]

The coaching staff and team has had 3 games to operate a new offense and defense.  The offensive scheme certainly has improved and is much less predictable. Defensively, we are starting to look formidable. 

 

Oregon had to scramble to replace it’s head football coach. DL came in and helped stabilize the team, brought in a solid staff, and is bringing in impressive recruits. I expect DL will thrive given time. 
 

Do I expect them to win every remaining game? Realistically, no…but, they do have me thinking that it is possible.
 

The team looks to me like they have a solid chance to be in the mix for the conference championship game.

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Drake

[Mic]

On 9/20/2022 at 9:17 AM, Drake said:

The team looks to me like they have a solid chance to be in the mix for the conference championship game.

 

I like your sentiments but it's a bit too early for me to form that opinion yet.  Maybe after we see how they do next weekend on the road against WSU I will feel better about their chances.  USC, Wash. OSU and Utah are all in the mix at this point but really, I think it too early since Pac-12 play hasn't even started yet (with one exception).