Will The Ducks' Run of Dominance Over UCLA Continue?

[cartm25]

We have two weeks to talk about it, so we might as well talk about it.

 

The last time UCLA legitimately beat Oregon was in 2004*

 

* Asterisk because technically UCLA beat Oregon in 2017 when a generational QB in Justin Herbert was out injured and, instead, UCLA had to face the "mighty" Burmeister. UCLA also beat Oregon in 2007, in the Ducks' first game after Heisman frontrunner, Dixon, went down. In that game, UCLA had to battle the "daunting", inexperienced trio of Kempt, Leaf, and Roper. Oregon doesn't lose those games if they have their starting QB.

 

This upcoming game with UCLA has me nervous because of one primary factor:  DTR (Dorian Thompson-Robinson)

 

What scares me is how consistently DTR is playing this year. In years past, you could count on DTR to be very streaky; unstoppable one quarter, and then horrendous the next. Now, he looks good all the time. A consistent, good decision-making QB that can run paired with Chip Kelly is a dangerous thing (reminds me of Mariota).

 

Here's some DTR stats, and be prepared for some wild improvement:

 

Not predicting a loss, but it sure feels like a coin toss at this point.

 

What are your thoughts, keys, feelings about the game?

[Krsmqn]

Yes.

[Mic]

While awaiting the Vegas oddsmakers to spin their webs of deceit I'll guess that UCLA will come in as -7 favorites over the Ducks.  ie: 14 point favorites if back home in their own snug corner.

 

I'll climb out on the limb and guess one of three possible scenarios (remember, this is all just for fun):

 

1)  A wild shootout happens; ending in a draw (overtime) and Oregon prevails 52-45.

2)  A wild defensive struggle occurs; ending in a draw (overtime) and Oregon prevails 49-42.

3.  A wild defensive, shootout occurs where neither of the above happen.

 

I'm pretty solid on one of the three.

[NJDuck]

I am not saying UCLA isn't a good team under Chip Kelly. But, so far out of the 6 games UCLA played only had one road game at Colorado.

 

Their win against Washington which seems to be not as strong as people thought they were.  Washington's win they had against MSU wasn't that great of a win, MSU is 2-4.  Washington loses to ASU.

 

Utah is missing their best TE playmaker due to injury.  Coach KW key offensive prowess is contingent on a two set TE.  Again this injury hurts them.   Utah also lost key defensive players they had from last year's team.

 

That win against S. Alabama at home for UCLA was ugly.  I feel UCLA has not really been tested, not like Oregon.  Oregon's offense is clicking on all cylinders.  Oregon's defense is improving each and every game. They have been battle tested on the road and they are getting stronger.  We get UCLA at a sell out raucous crowd in Autzen.  

 

This year's stats so far for Bo Nix behind one of the best front lines in the country with the best record in preventive sacks to the QB:  

70.4% Comp/1,524 Yards/8.2 YPA/12 TDs/3 INTs (2 of those INTs was against Georgia in the 1st game)

40 Carries/331 Yards/8.3 YPC/8 TDs

 

I do like our chances at home.

[Mic]

On 10/13/2022 at 2:47 PM, NJDuck said:

I do like our chances at home.

Yeah.  At home.  

 

UCLA needs to lose this just to find out what losing on the road is like.  Hell, just to find out what playing on the road is like.

[Log Haulin]

DTR is not MM. UCLA has proven nothing. After the first Q, UCLA will not get within two scores of the Ducks. TT will play in this game.

[Mic]

On 10/13/2022 at 4:12 PM, Log Haulin said:

DTR is not MM. UCLA has proven nothing. After the first Q, UCLA will not get within two scores of the Ducks. TT will play in this game.

I'm holding you to this bold but clearly stated prediction.  I have some weird sisters ready to ride thru the night to your home and haunt you if this proves incorrect, ya know.  Or should I send them to LA for some pre-flight hunting instead?

[Log Haulin]

On 10/13/2022 at 4:26 PM, Mic said:

I'm holding you to this bold but clearly stated prediction.  I have some weird sisters ready to ride thru the night to your home and haunt you if this proves incorrect, ya know.  Or should I send them to LA for some pre-flight hunting instead?

Sisters?

[Mic]

On 10/13/2022 at 4:52 PM, Log Haulin said:

Sisters?

Well, that might be a stretch.

[AnotherOD]

As a Duck fan, I feel pretty good. Without GameDay, Autzen will be lathered up, with GameDay it will be approaching a boil. Overall, I'd say I think Chip and UCLA approaching the top of the conference this season. I'd be nearly shocked if Oregon shows up and plays at least "solid", it loses at home.

 

[GODUCKS15]

No it won't end.

[chrisjenn99]

An interesting Tweet here:

https:/

/twitter.com/Qb11Sd/status/1580593261357375488?s=20

[EastBayDuckDad]

Vegas may not always get it right, but it never does anything except set odds based on the money. I think Oregon will get the usual -3 for home field advantage. So it might be Oregon -3 or perhaps if the odds makers feel UCLA has shown enough to be a 3-7 pt favorite, either a wash or UCLA by -3.

 

It'll be the o/u that is the most interesting as both offensives would be expected to thrive. A shootout might be predicted. Say, o/u of 65. 

 

I think it'll be Oregon -3 with an o/u of 65. Then we kick their heinies. 

 

I believe Chip no longer has a house on McKenzie View Dr. I understand you can see Autzen from there. Who ever lives there now will enjoy the view next Saturday.

[1Funduck]

I think our D is better than theirs. Our run game is better. Air attack is about the same. That's the difference. Oregon 45-38.

[debbieduck]

On 10/13/2022 at 2:47 PM, NJDuck said:

I am not saying UCLA isn't a good team under Chip Kelly. But, so far out of the 6 games UCLA played only had one road game at Colorado.

 

Their win against Washington which seems to be not as strong as people thought they were.  Washington's win they had against MSU wasn't that great of a win, MSU is 2-4.  Washington loses to ASU.

 

Utah is missing their best TE playmaker due to injury.  Coach KW key offensive prowess is contingent on a two set TE.  Again this injury hurts them.   Utah also lost key defensive players they had from last year's team.

 

That win against S. Alabama at home for UCLA was ugly.  I feel UCLA has not really been tested, not like Oregon.  Oregon's offense is clicking on all cylinders.  Oregon's defense is improving each and every game. They have been battle tested on the road and they are getting stronger.  We get UCLA at a sell out raucous crowd in Autzen.  

 

This year's stats so far for Bo Nix behind one of the best front lines in the country with the best record in preventive sacks to the QB:  

70.4% Comp/1,524 Yards/8.2 YPA/12 TDs/3 INTs (2 of those INTs was against Georgia in the 1st game)

40 Carries/331 Yards/8.3 YPC/8 TDs

 

I do like our chances at home.

Who have we beaten?  BYU can’t win a game, WSU has zero defense, and Arizona is one of the worst teams in the PAC.
 

  I hear what you are saying but UCLA just curb stomped Utah for 3 quarters then hit cruise control. 

 

We haven’t beaten A legit top 30 team yet.  
 

I am seriously worried about this one. 

[Haywarduck]

I won't answer directly, but you get the idea.

 

 

 

[Duck Fan 76]

So lets try to be fair in this game analysis because what we hope will happen has no influence on what is likely to actually happen.

 

Looking at UCLA's last two games Washington and Utah are good ways to estimate how well UCLA is playing right now against quality opponents. 

 

UCLA had the Washington game in hand half way through the 2nd quarter and had the game put away 4 minutes into the 3rd quarter.  Washington's defense is mid grade and couldn't slow the UCLA offense. 

 

Washington's offense in the game:

TD, Safety, FG, Int, End of Half, TD, TD, TD. 

 

That's decent production but UCLA's drives went:

Downs, TD, TD, TD, FG, Downs, TD, TD, Punt, End of Game. 

 

Washington made two egregious errors and got behind UCLA's offense and couldn't slow them down enough to catch up.

 

 

 

Utah is the top rated defense in the PAC and they are getting there with excellent pass defense and they are pretty stingy with points.  UCLA didn't really put the game away till the 4th quarter.

 

Utah's offense in the game:

Punt, Punt, Int, FG, TD, Missed FG, TD, TD, Fumble, Downs

 

UCLA's possessions:

Punt, Punt, TD, TD, Missed FG, End of Half, TD, TD, TD, TD, Int returned for TD

 

There really was no trash time in this game, starters stayed in.  The best PAC12 pass defense (statistically) got two stops and a pick six.  Again, Utah got behind and couldn't slow UCLAs offense to catch back up.

 

 

 

 

So how should Oregon fair?  Oregon's defense is a weird story and the stats are heavily eschewed by how the opposition has been attacking us.  We have statistically the worst pass defense but the best run defense.  As for points allowed, we are mid grade for the PAC and that I think is the better metric. 

 

I think Oregon's defense is going to have to take a good sized step forward again on the pass defense to slow UCLA's offense.  This isn't going to be easy to do but the staff has been pretty good at addressing weakness so this is a possibility. 

 

The question is, what adjustments can Oregon make to get stops against UCLA?  Better pass defense (except Gonzo) is a good start and containing DTR in the pocket will be huge.  Autzen and crowd noise will play into this so the defenses x-factor might be crowd induced errors.

 

 

 

 

Oregon's offense is statistically leading the PAC in yards per game, points scored and rushing yards.  We are middle of the PAC for passing yards but some of that is we only had one pass heavy game against WSU.  The defense that's right behind Oregon for stopping the run?  UCLA. 

 

Oregon's offense has got to be efficient (something they are great at) but I mean they need to take the plays that UCLA gives.  If they are stopping the run, Oregon needs to find open receivers and get completions for good sized gains.  That's the only way to get UCLA to respect the pass and open up run lanes for reliable drives.  

 

Punt's aren't going to be a good idea as this game is likely going to be a shootout.  Falling behind early is a very bad plan against UCLA's offense because they get better as the game goes on, not worse. 

 

Interceptions/fumbles are killers because Oregon needs points on every possession and TDs over FGs.

 

I doubt if Oregon's defense can stop UCLA's offense but truthfully they just need to slow them down enough and allow Oregon's excellent offense to be dominant.  If Oregon falls behind, don't turn off your TV or head to the parking lot.  Adjustments are going to be huge and while UCLA has been making great adjustments Oregon can as well.  The WSU game was a test of tenacity for this team and to win this one they will need to play smart, tough and tenacious football.

 

The bottom line is I expect this game to be a shootout and the winner will be the team that plays the more complete game in all phases.  It's technically possible for this game to be a blowout in either direction but for that to happen one teams offense is going to have to have a terrible/meltdown day.  I don't think either defense can force that to happen but a bout of the flu or some unknown force can always make teams play well below their potential.

[Mic]

On 10/14/2022 at 10:03 AM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Washington made two egregious errors and got behind UCLA's offense and couldn't slow them down enough to catch up.

 

Again, Utah got behind and couldn't slow UCLAs offense to catch back up.

An excellent post but I clipped these 2 short bits from it merely to say this is the epitome of Chip Kelly ball.  Defenses are almost an after-thought until it gets to crunch time or early in the game to get the lead.  Once his teams have the lead the opponents are screwed - as long as his team can keep scoring.  This year, his team has kept scoring.

 

Oregon is not dissimilar in that it plays its best when ahead (WSU game excepted).  Best not be missing the 1st qtr. on this one!

[Duck Fan 76]

On 10/14/2022 at 2:04 PM, Mic said:

Best not be missing the 1st qtr. on this one!

Both offenses need to keep it close for their gameplan to work.