Why the Pac-12’s Survival is in Everyone’s Interest

[FishDuck Article]

We are firmly back in the off-season, and conference realignment talk is back in full force. There has been talk of Oregon and Washington getting a chance to make the jump to the B1G after April 17th (basically when a new commissioner is in place). Most Oregon fans seem to have mixed emotions about a potential switch to the B1G. ...

 

Why the Pac-12's Survival is in Everyone's Interest

FISHDUCK.COM

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We are firmly back in the off-season, and conference realignment talk is back in full force. There has been talk of Oregon and Washington...

[Smith72]

Well said David!  I agree with your conclusion, "The death of the Pac-12 would signal yet another end to what makes College Football so great."

 

Thanks for writing this article today, and especially for being one of the FishDuck writers!

[Charles Fischer]

If we can make it happen--super, as I'd love to stay in the Pac-12.  But I will go along with whatever Oregon decides is best for them, and will continue to be a very intense fan.

 

 

 

[Duckhart]

To me it makes more since to have a merger/alliance? with the Big12, of course, with two divisions. Imo, eventually there will be 3 Power Conferences anyway. I just don't see how two would work?

 

[DUCati855]

On 3/28/2023 at 7:40 AM, Charles Fischer said:

If we can make it happen--super, as I'd love to stay in the Pac-12.  But I will go along with whatever Oregon decides is best for them, and will continue to be a very intense fan.

 

 

 

I too love Pac12 football. To me it is the most entertaining of all the Power 5 conferences. I do not want this style of football to disappear. I hate to think of our Ducks plodding down the field the way Iowa or Wisconsin does. Made me yawn just typing that. But, unless George can work a miracle I do not see the Pac competing in 8-10 years. I'm hoping to still be around past that timeline and want my Ducks to still be a top 10-15 program. I'm blindly trusting in UO leadership to make the right call for the program's future. 

 

With that said. I'm getting used to eating cheese curds and drinking Leinenkugel's.... Because that is what I see in our future.

 

Edited March 28, 2023 by DUCati855

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/28/2023 at 10:29 AM, DUCati855 said:

With that said. I'm getting used to eating cheese curds and drinking Leinenkugel's.... Because that is what I see in our future.

Yep, truck stops and.....

 

Photos: 2021 Solon Beef Days Hay Bale Toss

WWW.THEGAZETTE.COM

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Iowa football players were once again among the competition at the Solon Beef Days Hay Bale Toss

 

[Washington Waddler]

On 3/28/2023 at 10:29 AM, DUCati855 said:

With that said. I'm getting used to eating cheese curds and drinking Leinenkugel's.... Because that is what I see in our future.

 

Edited 34 minutes ago by DUCati855

     Don’t forget Corn Hole as the only game day party option

[Jon Joseph]

Terrific take David, thank you.

 

Financially CFB is a Power 2, The SEC and B1G have so distanced themselves financially there will be no catching up for the ACC, B12, and the Pac-12. In many ways, CFB has been taken over by ESPN, (SEC) and FOX (B1G.) ESPN engineered the move of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC and FOX did the same bringing UCLA and USC into the B1G.

 

I believe this consolidation first began when the then commissioner of the SEC convinced the then Pac-10 and the B1G that college football needed 1 True Champion. Thus, came the BCS, followed by the Playoff (BCS x 2) and the coming 12-team Playoff that IMO is certain to go to a 16-team field once ESPN's exclusive Playoff broadcast rights expire after the 2025/26 season. And with the BCS the Rose Bowl became the equivalent Playoff-wise to the Peach Bowl. 

 

Before the BCS the SEC was nowhere near the football behemoth it is today. The BCS did not lift all boats, it lifted SEC boats. And B1G commissioner Jim Delaney with his idea for a conference sports network that was owned and operated, in part, by FOX was a home-run business decision and brought FOX into being a major player in the broadcast of CFB.

 

The B1G is also the beneficiary of being located in time zones with the largest population size and having member schools with huge numbers of living graduates. Unlike the SEC the B1G has won but 1 Playoff tile and the B1G has not won the CBB tourney since 2000. But it doesn't matter. The B1G is being paid big time notwithstanding a lack of on-field and on-court success. 

 

The Pac-12 has been mismanaged for a decade plus. While the B1G and the SEC benefitted from terrific leadership from its commissioners the Pac-12 enabled a follow-the-B1G, spendthrift commissioner to run amok. The Pac-12 presidents completely failed as business people making, starting with the agreement to join the BCS, with one baffling business decision after the other. Academic arrogance in part led to the Pac-12 making the death-stroke business decision not to end the B12 as a conference move into the central time zone, save the financially insolvent Pac-12 Network and with the ACC locked into a bad media agreement with ESPN, leaving it, the SEC and the B1G as the 3 power conferences able to negotiate new media deals.

 

Being asleep at the business switch and allowing the B12 to go first with its new media rights deal resulted in the loss of conference bell cow USC and its UCLA, Los Angeles market brother to the B1G. 

 

While the concept of national conference diversity is an excellent thought; well, that ship has sailed. Further, Pac conference partners, CAL and Stanford, once competitive in football and basketball, seem to have institutionally thrown in the towel.

 

As is true in all big businesses today it is every man for himself. Oregon must look out for itself and not be left behind in a futile attempt to prop up a failed enterprise. 

 

The B1G will come calling for the Ducks and UW. Entry will be as a member with a reduced B1G revenue share but still favorable when compared to what the Pac-10 commissioner is trying to piece together. A patchwork fix of adding say San Diego State and SMU may keep the conference together but at best the Pac-Whatever will be in a battle for the Bronze Medal.

 

Oregon, with Division Street at its side, will be competitive in the B1G in both football and basketball. Travel will be mitigated by 'creative' scheduling that will have Oregon, UW, UCLA, and USC (and possibly Nebraska and Iowa) being permanent opponents in football and weighting basketball competition and nonrevenue sports competition to these 4 or 6 teams.

 

Thanks again, David. In business as in all things in life, you reap what you sow. Sad to say but Oregon leadership was among the 'board of directors that allowed Larry to operate outside of any reasonable business control and oversight.

Edited March 28, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[Nevada Dawg]

Very thoughtful and  well-delivered article David. I heartily concur!

[Jon Joseph]

Is that you, Larry?

 

[Jon Joseph]

B1G Basketball. No cigar.

 

[Thomallister1291]

I'm 100% sure Oregon would be an elite basketball team in the Big Ten, in fact, I sometimes think competing in the Big 12 would be absolutely harder.

 

But anyways, the Pac-12 seems absolutely screwed now, all media deals won't seem to satisfy us and Washington so even if the money is similar in the Big Ten at first, they could get more national exposure in TV due to the deal with NBC, Fox and CBS, and I'm sure there will be a point where we will get a full share even if takes 6 or 7 years.

 

Like I said, I'll really miss the Pac-12 but Oregon joining the Big Ten would be good for them, plus I'm looking forward to games against our new conference rivals plus USC, UCLA and Washington.

[David Marsh]

On 3/28/2023 at 9:30 AM, Duckhart said:

To me it makes more since to have a merger/alliance? with the Big12, of course, with two divisions. Imo, eventually there will be 3 Power Conferences anyway. I just don't see how two would work?

 

I think the alliance with the ACC is a far better option despite the geography. The ACC still has it's tent pole teams... Namely teams that give the conference purpose.

 

Now the LA schools would argue that they were the tent pole teams of the conference which in terms of media money they did help bring in a big market. 

 

However, the PAC has Oregon and Washington who are both miles ahead of whatever is left in the big-12. 

 

The ACC has Clemson, FSU, Miami and part time Notre Dame.

 

And... The ACC is desperate to get more money from their incredibly long and poor media contract. 

[Thomallister1291]

On 3/28/2023 at 6:43 PM, David Marsh said:

I think the alliance with the ACC is a far better option despite the geography. The ACC still has it's tent pole teams... Namely teams that give the conference purpose.

 

Now the LA schools would argue that they were the tent pole teams of the conference which in terms of media money they did help bring in a big market. 

 

However, the PAC has Oregon and Washington who are both miles ahead of whatever is left in the big-12. 

 

The ACC has Clemson, FSU, Miami and part time Notre Dame.

 

And... The ACC is desperate to get more money from their incredibly long and poor media contract. 

I would love to get a shot at ACC schools in football and basketball, but the problem would be that travel costs would be absolutely nightmarish in case the alliance is bigger than just scheduling a few games every now and then.

 

Either way I'm all in for an Oregon vs Clemson game.

[Duckhart]

Looks like B12 interested in Fresno State.

 

[Thomallister1291]

On 3/28/2023 at 6:53 PM, Duckhart said:

Looks like B12 interested in Fresno State.

 

I honestly believe Fresno State is a secondary option in case the Big 12 can't add all of the Four Corners schools.

[David Marsh]

On 3/28/2023 at 5:49 PM, Thomallister1291 said:

I would love to get a shot at ACC schools in football and basketball, but the problem would be that travel costs would be absolutely nightmarish in case the alliance is bigger than just scheduling a few games every now and then.

 

Either way I'm all in for an Oregon vs Clemson game.

From what I have heard about early talk about this idea is that both coasts would play the vast majority of their games within their current conference alignments but at the end of the season there will be some cross conference games, including a conference championship game from the top two teams. 

 

Far more managable expense wise to only do one or two cross over games a year. 

[Jon Joseph]

David, with or without the ACC it will be a battle for the Bronze Medal. 

 

You could take the 14 top teams from the ACC, the 'new' B12, and Pac-10 and not approach the Power 2 financially or the SEC on the football field.

 

You need to have the money and the will to invest the money in football in particular and also in men's basketball. The best shot at the money will be for Oregon to join the B1G at a reduced incoming share as did Nebraska.

[Nevada Dawg]

I don't want to see the Ducks in the B1G under any circumstances. And given their pedigree in the major men's sports, there is no way they should be like Nebraska and enter as second class citizens. Why suck hind t-t to the Northwesterns, Indianas, and Rutgers of that wretched conference? 

 

If the cost of entering is to accept less than other members, I hope the Pacific schools will seriously consider some alliance of the ACC, Big-12, and ACC powers. I'll say one thing: Recent history says such a conference would rule the roost in men's basketball over the SEC and B1G. I think that it would probably be competitive in football with the B1G, but it would probably take some time to break through to seriously challenge the SEC in football.

[Thomallister1291]

I think that Oregon's only option if they leave the Pac-12 is the Big Ten, I'm sure that they don't want to be associated with the Big 12, and I personally would hate that, not only because of the amount of Big 12 home and homes we have for the next few years (I think we have played a lot of Big 12 opponents which is tiresome) but because it would be super weird, imagine being conference foes against a school located in Orlando and another one located in West Virginia.

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/30/2023 at 1:23 AM, Nevada Dawg said:

I don't want to see the Ducks in the B1G under any circumstances. And given their pedigree in the major men's sports, there is no way they should be like Nebraska and enter as second class citizens. Why suck hind t-t to the Northwesterns, Indianas, and Rutgers of that wretched conference? 

 

If the cost of entering is to accept less than other members, I hope the Pacific schools will seriously consider some alliance of the ACC, Big-12, and ACC powers. I'll say one thing: Recent history says such a conference would rule the roost in men's basketball over the SEC and B1G. I think that it would probably be competitive in football with the B1G, but it would probably take some time to break through to seriously challenge the SEC in football.

ND, good take. But the 16 best teams from the ACC, B12, and Pac-10 would not measure up money-wise with the B1G and the SEC. Travel would be crazier than joining the B1G and creating a viable pod system. 

 

Along with Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers also joined as reduced revenue partners. And Maryland had to pay a big penalty to leave the ACC, just as Oklahoma and Texas are paying to leave the B12. 

 

Oregon can exit the Pac-12 at the end of the existing media deal at no cost; just like UCLA and USC. I know it is 'phantom money' but I think the ability to leave at no cost has to be taken into consideration.

 

As the Pac-10 media negotiations drag it appears that without a rabbit-out-of-the-hat miracle, Oregon will make more with a reduced revenue share in the B1G than in the Pac-10 and will not have to be the beta site for college sports streaming.

 

It stinks, but this is the natural procession of college football and Men's basketball being entirely monetized. And in the case of the Pac-12 add in over a decade of urine-poor management.

[Nevada Dawg]

Jon, you are making some very good points as usual. I was reacting more to the title of the thread than monetary issues. But...I don't care  if Oregon would do as well or better as a reduced revenue second class citizen. Have some pride and advance the notion that the Duck brand adds meaningfully to the stature of the B1G as justification for a full share of the spoils. Oregon is not Rutgers, Maryland, or Nebraska!!

 

Did the SoCal schools join as reduced revenue partners?

 

You also have to consider what the best of the other three Power Five conferences would command in a Media deal, particularly if they were indeed competitive with the B1G and SEC in major sports. But even with such an arrangement, I would still be deeply saddened with the demise of the Pacific alliance. That was the group that I cut my college football teeth on way back when the Idaho Vandals were still in the league.

[Rufus]

Does the PAC have a two-year notice rule that requires members to give a 2 year notice before leaving the conference?  If so, I’m sure there will be some sort of exit fee for Oregon to leave next summer even if no media contract has been signed. USC and UCLA gave a full 2 year notice and then some. 
 

 

[Thomallister1291]

On 3/31/2023 at 9:58 AM, Rufus said:

Does the PAC have a two-year notice rule that requires members to give a 2 year notice before leaving the conference?  If so, I’m sure there will be some sort of exit fee for Oregon to leave next summer even if no media contract has been signed. USC and UCLA gave a full 2 year notice and then some. 
 

 

I think that if the Ducks announce their move to the Big Ten this year, they will move one year later than the SoCal schools, in 2025.

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/31/2023 at 12:06 PM, Thomallister1291 said:

I think that if the Ducks announce their move to the Big Ten this year, they will move one year later than the SoCal schools, in 2025.

I think the Ducks if invited go after next season. Otherwise, Oregon would be in limbo media-rights wise and I'm reasonably certain the B1G would want to arrange a 16-team schedule come 2024 and not wait a year for teams in addition to SC/UCLA. 

 

What kind of media deal would the Pac-10 be able to come up with if Oregon and say Washington, were only members for 1 season of the new media deal? Plus, leave after the 2023 season and there is $0 owed in exit fees.

 

Business-wise I think FOX. CBS and NBC would also want to get a deal and a schedule done in 2024.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/31/2023 at 11:58 AM, Rufus said:

Does the PAC have a two-year notice rule that requires members to give a 2 year notice before leaving the conference?  If so, I’m sure there will be some sort of exit fee for Oregon to leave next summer even if no media contract has been signed. USC and UCLA gave a full 2 year notice and then some. 
 

 

No. Oregon and UW have not assigned their respective media rights beyond 2023.

 

There is nothing to restrain Oregon and UW from leaving after 2023 without having to pay an exit fee except perhaps the Oregon legislature insisting upon Oregon and Oregon State playing every season as is the case with Florida vs FSU, Clemson vs South Carolina, and Kentucky vs Louisville.

 

I do not think the Ducks would at all mind playing OR ST OOC every season.

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/31/2023 at 11:19 AM, Jon Joseph said:

the Oregon legislature insisting upon Oregon and Oregon State playing every season

I believe the legislation requires Oregon to take little brother with us to another conference, should we leave the Pac-12 and this bill is passed.

 

Little Brothers are such a pain...

[David Marsh]

On 3/31/2023 at 11:34 AM, Charles Fischer said:

I believe the legislation requires Oregon to take little brother with us to another conference, should we leave the Pac-12 and this bill is passed.

 

Little Brothers are such a pain...

I had the misfortune of driving through Corvallis yesterday... I thought the place could be improved with some more green and yellow banners with an O motifs rather than those orange and black ones. 

[HappyToBeADuck]

Personally, our Ducks and the huskies would be foolish and short sighted if they didnt accept an offer from the BIG. That's if they actually get an invite.......

 

5 years from now, usc, ucla, noryhwestern, maryland and rutgers could have $150 million more in the bank than any PAC member.  That number could be much higher depending on what GK can or cannot put together.

 

Rutgers or Maryland could afford to steal the best PAC coaches. Money talks. Coaches are for sale to the highest bidder in many cases.

 

Recruiting could suffered without competitive linear exposure. Not in the short term. 8 to 10 years need to see OBD's in order to dream about them.

 

I hate the idea of the PAC breaking up...... However, TV and money drive the football bus. Ask yourself do you want to be on the bus or watching the bus drive right by?

 

Dont worrry Duck fans, the presidents have watched alot of buses drive by the last 10 years...

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/31/2023 at 2:34 PM, Charles Fischer said:

I believe the legislation requires Oregon to take little brother with us to another conference, should we leave the Pac-12 and this bill is passed.

 

Little Brothers are such a pain...

Love the GIF!

 

After much ado about nothing I do not think the Legislature will not insist that the Beavers tag along. Kind of like, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech, and UCLA and CAL.

 

I'd be very surprised if Oregon doesn't have more legislative juice than Oregon State. And I think Uncle Phil would not let Oregon State prevent Oregon from moving on up.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/31/2023 at 3:58 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Personally, our Ducks and the huskies would be foolish and short sighted if they didnt accept an offer from the BIG. That's if they actually get an invite.......

 

5 years from now, usc, ucla, noryhwestern, maryland and rutgers could have $150 million more in the bank than any PAC member.  That number could be much higher depending on what GK can or cannot put together.

 

Rutgers or Maryland could afford to steal the best PAC coaches. Money talks. Coaches are for sale to the highest bidder in many cases.

 

Recruiting could suffered without competitive linear exposure. Not in the short term. 8 to 10 years need to see OBD's in order to dream about them.

 

I hate the idea of the PAC breaking up...... However, TV and money drive the football bus. Ask yourself do you want to be on the bus or watching the bus drive right by?

 

Dont worrry Duck fans, the presidents have watched alot of buses drive by the last 10 years...

Love the take. CFB/CBB is big business. Money matters.

 

You are so right. Instead of getting on the bus in the last 10 years the 'leaders' of the conference missed the bus yet built a lousy Network bus station.