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Okay... weather .com forecast for Saturday is predicting 5% chance of rain by day, and a "few showers" in the evening. If this forecast holds, here are my early score predictions: 1) If we get two of our three stud receivers back, and the weather forecast holds, I've got the Ducks spanking JMU 50-20. If no stud receivers, plus serious rain, Ducks 38-20. How's that for hedging my bets.

Oh I've been there! And... yeah a loss to Texas Tech would really suck.

But the good news, Charles, is that we're finally getting some snow in the Cascades!

Sure, we've enjoyed the ride of the season and what each and every game brings. Im not discounting that. Simply put, I feel if the Ducks lose to Texas Tech that they fell short of where I believe they should be. If they get to the semis then in my book they've have gotten to where they should be. Anything more than that of course would be dreamy. And, embellishing in the title a little with a word like "bust" to hopefully draw interest? No, not me! 😛😉

Well, we'll see if Lanning's "peaking at the right time" plan pans out.

Yeah, Texas Tech should be in the category you mentioned. But. Ya never know....

Holy crapoly! That's just nuts. As somebody else pointed out above, thankfully it's cooled down in the mountains so most of that up there will stay. But wow 5 inches in a day is insane.

Moore is not ready to go to the NFL. He hasn't demonstrated the ability to manage the pass rush consistently, and he's playing behind one of the best OLines in the country. If he goes to the Raiders that has one of the worst OLs in the country, he'll be a disaster at best and injured at worst. I'd love for Dante to prove me wrong though, especially in the playoffs against some teams with a great pass rush like TTU, Indiana, OU, etc.

The Athletic’s Stuart Mandel’s mailbag. Am I wrong in my thinking that Michigan isn’t a Top 10 job right now? No big names will go there if they understand the AD has one foot out the door. And if they fire the AD, no way the coach goes there until they hire a new AD. It’s a dumpster fire of epic proportions at the moment. — Patrick B. How viable would it be for Michigan to go the interim coach route for one season and make a hire during/after the 2026 season? Are there any lessons or comparisons to be drawn from Stanford’s year under Frank Reich? — Dan G. You know, I predicted that about LSU after the governor got the AD fired, said he might let Donald Trump hire the next coach and proclaimed the school wasn’t going to give out another guaranteed contract. And I couldn’t have been more wrong. LSU ended up beating out two other SEC schools (and Florida State?) for Lane Kiffin. Michigan is absolutely a Top 10 job. It won a national championship two years ago. Many coaches would love to lead such an iconic program. But the timing is, admittedly, not ideal. Penn State already hired a guy, Matt Campbell, who would have been high on the list. Several other potential candidates have either already changed jobs or signed extensions. And, oh yeah, the Sherrone Moore fallout is far from over. AD Warde Manuel is a dead man walking, and there’s an ongoing investigation into the athletic department’s culture. I don’t think the Stanford route is realistic because Michigan doesn’t have an NFL-style GM like Andrew Luck, who is more the face of that program now than the head coach. A lame-duck interim would have a hard time recruiting and make things that much harder for the next guy. Michigan hired one of the big search firms, Turnkey, so it’s conducting a full-on search. Washington’s Jedd Fisch became the candidate du jour after Kalen DeBoer recommitted to Alabama. Fisch is by no means a slam dunk, but he took on a much-bigger challenge rebuilding Arizona. While I believe Kenny Dillingham is unlikely to leave Arizona State, Michigan could try to lure Clark Lea from Vanderbilt. One potential wild-card: Kyle Whittingham, 66, who just stepped down at Utah after 21 seasons and, to some surprise, is looking for other coaching opportunities. While he may not be a long-term guy, he’s overly qualified to come in and win right away. Whoever it is, this needs to be a full break from the past five years or so of Michigan football. (Fisch is nine years removed from Jim Harbaugh.) Those 2021-23 seasons were fun, but the program needs to cleanse itself at this point. Too much stench. How much damage has Notre Dame brought on itself by its reaction to not being in the Playoff and refusing to play in a bowl game? I have read reports some ADs are saying they will not schedule games with Notre Dame in the future. — Terry G. The bowl opt-out may have offended fans more than those within the industry. And I’ll believe it when I see it that ADs refuse to schedule Notre Dame because ADs like to sell tickets, and the Irish coming to your stadium is a guaranteed sellout. But Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark was hardly the only one to see AD Pete Bevacqua’s three-day temper tantrum, especially his attack on the ACC, as “egregious.” Its main long-term impact might be a shared mindset of, “Why are we still bending over backwards for these guys?” Buried within that media cycle was Bevacqua revealing that the CFP contract starting next year guarantees the Irish an at-large berth if they finish in the top 12. That certainly seems like special treatment. I asked around, and it appears this was to counter the possibility that from time to time the ACC or Big 12 champions could finish well below No. 12 and still get an automatic berth (as Clemson did last season and Duke might have this season). However, that ESPN deal only covers a 12- or 14-team field. If/when they go to 16, it seems unlikely that Notre Dame would get a separate carve-out like that one. As for the ACC relationship, there may be “permanent damage” on both sides. Much has changed since their partnership began in 2014, the first year of the four-team CFP, when there were fewer berths available and the most a school could receive from making the field was $6 million. Now, a school can earn as much as $20 million for its conference. But Notre Dame keeps all of that for itself. The ACC should have been, of course, as aggressive as possible promoting Miami over the Irish. People in that league were truly befuddled by why Bevacqua made such a stink about that issue. Also, Notre Dame is not exactly a powerhouse in most ACC sports it competes in. It was the conference’s ninth-highest ranked member in last year’s Directors Cup standings (No. 36 overall). I’m not sure it would hurt the ACC Network that much if the school returned to the Big East. Meanwhile, on Notre Dame’s side, the benefits of its ACC arrangement are dwindling. The ACC has fallen to a second-tier status in football, and most of its programs do not help the Irish’s schedule strength or perception. And having access to the conference’s non-CFP bowls is now a non-factor. Conveniently, the ACC’s lawsuit settlement with Florida State and Clemson makes it easier for Notre Dame to exit. While the Grant of Rights remains in effect until 2036, the exit fee drops to a less-prohibitive $75 million in 2030, allowing the school to leave and take its media rights with it. The question is, would the Big Ten be willing to make a similar partial arrangement? (The SEC would not.) If not, Notre Dame will need to decide whether to stay independent, with no built-in opponents, or to bite the bullet and join a conference in football. As of now, that answer would be the former. Check back in five years, though. Choose homes for the big-name transfer QBs (Sam Leavitt, DJ Lagway, Dylan Raiola, Brendan Sorsby, etc.) — Michael M. It’s difficult to play matchmaker without knowing the rev-share or NIL offers they’ll be getting, or which big names will join the pool before New Year’s. But I’ll give you what I think will be the most appealing programs for guys entering the market. All will be looking for a new starter in 2026. 1. Indiana. Fun fact: Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza is the fifth of Cignetti’s last six QBs to win conference player of the year. The sixth was 2024 Indiana starter Kurtis Rourke, who made the second-team All-Big Ten. Seems like an ideal spot for someone looking for a big year of development. 2. LSU. Lane Kiffin knows what he’s doing with quarterbacks, most recently transforming D-II transfer Trinidad Chambliss into an All-SEC QB. He and OC Charlie Weis Jr. helped Jaxson Dart become a first-round pick before that. 3. Miami. After seeing what Cam Ward and Carson Beck did in Shannon Dawson’s offense — not to mention how much money they made — this could be the perfect opportunity for someone looking to boost his draft stock in his final season. 4. Texas Tech. The reigning Big 12 champs will pay you a small fortune and spend another small fortune surrounding you with talent. Seems fun. 5. Florida. Jon Sumrall made a sneaky-good OC hire in Georgia Tech’s Buster Faulkner, who helped turn Haynes King into a star the past three seasons. Three others that would displace at least Florida if their QBs turn pro: Oregon (Dante Moore), Alabama (Ty Simpson) and Duke (Darian Mensah). Please update us on the current discussion to fix the CFP selection process, which had zero credibility this year. The CFP is broken and has terribly damaged college football. Who wants to even watch the CFP when they don’t have the right 12 teams to start? There should be a serious investigation into the CFP for potential conflicts of interest given the broadcasting contracts involved, and for providing misleading information on team rankings for a month before their final selection. — Tim K. It could be a while before we get these answers. Anything CFP-related moves slowly. But now I’m curious to see if anyone will watch this broken, terribly damaged event this weekend. Stew, momentum seems to be building for a 16-team CFP. If that happens, is there any chance conference championship games will go away? And if so, could Rounds 1 and 2 both be held on campus? It seems ridiculous to push the season all the way to Jan. 20 just to protect conference championship games. — Tom Well, here’s the thing. According to Nielsen, 18.3 million people watched the supposedly meaningless Ohio State-Indiana Big Ten championship game — higher than three of the four CFP quarterfinals and one of the two semifinals last season. And another 16.9 million watched the Alabama-Georgia SEC championship. So, the conference championship games aren’t going anywhere. If/when they expand to 16 teams, they will likely work within the calendar they have now, and cram in games wherever possible. Maybe Thursday and Friday night doubleheaders? A weekday afternoon? It’s tough to find new time slots that don’t clash with the NFL. But it doesn’t have to be that way. As I’ve been urging for three years, shift the regular season a week earlier. Hold the first round on what’s currently conference championship weekend, before the NFL is allowed to play Saturday games. (I previously had this as an off week, but we’d need an NFL-free weekend to play eight games.) Then comes the week off (except for Army-Navy). Quarterfinals on campus in the third week of December. Semifinals on New Year’s Day. Championship game a week later. Just like it was before last season. The problem is, they’ve already agreed to keep the quarterfinals at the bowls for another six years, and it seems silly to hold the Rose Bowl or the Sugar Bowl on Dec. 20. So my fix may still be a few years away. But of course, if/when Tony Petitti gets his wish and it goes to 24 teams, at that point they’d have to do away with the conference championship games unless they want the season to go practically to February. But I’d be curious how he plans to sell Fox on replacing that 1 vs. 2 Ohio State-Indiana game with No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 24 James Madison and No. 10 Miami vs. No. 23 Iowa. Stew: We keep seeing 5-star QBs failing. Do the people who rate the high school players have to come under scrutiny? We automatically think five-stars will resurrect programs. It hasn’t always been the case. — Marc N. Quarterback has always been the toughest position to evaluate because of all the intangibles involved. Look at how badly the NFL misses on first-rounders, despite having several years of college tape, pro days, combine interviews and more. The folks at 247Sports and college coaches are often going on low-res high school film (against overmatched competition), and maybe a couple of days at one of their camps. But the hit rate may be improving slightly. There were 11 five-star QBs from 2013-17, of which I’d call two a home run (Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa), five a college-level hit (Jarrett Stidham, Josh Rosen, Shea Patterson, Jacob Eason and Davis Mills) and four an out (Christian Hackenberg, Kyle Allen, Max Browne and Blake Barnett). That’s not a bad ratio, to be honest. The latest window includes 14 guys, with five home runs (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Bryce Young, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye), five hits (Spencer Rattler, Quinn Ewers, Drew Allar, Cade Klubnik and Ty Simpson, who could still turn into home runs), and four outs (JT Daniels, DJ Uiagalelei, Sam Huard and Connor Weigman). On a percentage basis, more superstars, slightly fewer busts. The question is whether the trend is starting to reverse. While I think it’s too early to rule out recent classes, things don’t look great for Jackson Arnold (2023) and Malachi Nelson (2023), and there are only two home runs: Dante Moore (2023) and Julian Sayin (2024). Still plenty of time for Arch Manning (2023), Dylan Raiola (2024), DJ Lagway (2024) and others. Once upon a time, Manning’s career path — waiting his turn, then having ups and downs as a first-time starter — was typical. Now, everyone expects immediate success, and if it doesn’t happen right away, they transfer, which doesn’t always aid development either. But perhaps Dante Moore can serve as a case study. He started as a true freshman and didn’t look good, and he did transfer … but then he sat for a year to develop without the scrutiny. Look at him now. He made the evaluators look smart. But had he taken a different route — like transferring down to start immediately — he might have ended up in the other group. Looking back at your preseason predictions during the Playoff era, has it become harder year-over-year to predict the final CFP rankings, particularly at the top of the rankings? — Martin D. Yes, much harder. There was a time in the mid-2010s when you could just take the top 10 teams at the end of the season, rearrange it a little and look like a genius. Case in point: In 2018, five of my top six teams on Jan. 9 finished in the top seven 12 months later. Not because I’m a Nostradamus, but because Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia and Oklahoma kept all their best players and reloaded every year. The portal actually started that year but was barely a thing, because players still had to sit out a year before playing. Fast forward to 2025, and it’s nearly the opposite. My top three teams in May (No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Penn State and No. 3 Clemson) all missed the Playoff, along with No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 7 LSU. I did have nine of the 10 Power 4 CFP teams in those rankings (all but Ole Miss), but top seed Indiana was only No. 18. Perhaps I’ve lost my touch, or, perhaps because there’s so much player movement and roster turnover, and far more parity within the major conferences. But I’ll make one prediction right now that I’m certain will hold true: Next season’s predictions will be even more baseless because so many new coaches will be taking over major programs, most of which will try to overhaul their rosters.

Coaches talk to Bruce Feldman This has been one of the most entertaining college football seasons in recent memory. Neither of the top two teams in the preseason AP Top 25, Texas or Penn State, made the College Football Playoff. Nor did No. 4 Clemson or No. 6 Notre Dame. In fact, just five of the preseason top 17 made the field. We polled more than two dozen coaches from the Power 4 and Group of 5 and asked them: Who will win it all? Who is the biggest fraud? Who is the best coach and the biggest sleeper? Which team will win it all? • Georgia: 50% • Ohio State: 42% • Indiana: 4% • Oregon: 4% “I don’t think there’s any team that is just great this year. Or as good as Alabama or Georgia were when they won it, or even as good as Ohio State last year. Georgia’s O-line has matured, so that team has taken a jump. The QB is a winner. Defensively, Georgia can play big and can match up. They’re really good and they’re battle-tested.” — Group of 5 head coach “Ohio State. Georgia seems flawed. I know Indiana just beat them but I don’t think they can beat them twice. Ohio State was pretty banged up in that game. The wideouts will be healthier. On defense, Ohio State is really sound with great players. Their red zone defense is unbelievable.” — Big Ten offensive assistant coach “Indiana. They’ve played big in big games. I was really impressed with them winning at Oregon and beating Ohio State the way they did.” — Group of 5 head coach “Georgia. They look the cleanest. They’ve been getting better as the season’s gone on. They’re gonna stop the run and find your weaknesses. And they’re good at using them against you.” — SEC defensive coordinator Who do you think is the biggest fraud in the field? • Ole Miss: 29% • Texas Tech: 17% • Alabama: 17% • JMU: 8% • Oregon: 4% • Oklahoma: 4% • No answer: 21% “Ole Miss. They’ve had so many distractions with Lane Kiffin leaving, and Oklahoma is probably their only good win this year.” — Group of 5 head coach “I think Alabama should have, like, five losses this year. They shouldn’t be there.” — SEC defensive coordinator “Alabama. Maybe I’m old-school, but I don’t believe a three-loss team should have a shot to win a national title. I’ve watched them. They’re not that good this year. I didn’t see enough from them to get this chance.” — Big Ten defensive line coach “Texas Tech. Their D-line is really phenomenal. They can hold their gaps and they let those linebackers play freely. But their offense has had so many opportunities and they really struggle in the red zone. (QB Behren) Morton is talented, but he’s played a ton and some of his decision-making is pretty poor.” — Big 12 offensive coordinator “JMU. They have no business in the Playoff. If you put them in the ACC, they wouldn’t even be .500. Defensively, they’re legitimate, but offensively, they are not good.” — Group of 5 head coach “Oklahoma. The defense is awesome, but I don’t think their offense can piss a drop.” — Group of 5 tight ends coach Which team is the biggest sleeper in the field? • Miami: 21% • Oregon: 17% • Oklahoma: 17% • Alabama: 13% • Ole Miss: 13% • Texas A&M: 13% • Texas Tech: 4% “Oklahoma. I don’t think they have had any movement on their staff or roster. Cohesiveness could play a key role in the Playoff.” — Big Ten defensive backs coach “Alabama is good enough to beat anybody in the field, but can Ty Simpson get his form back from the middle of the season? They don’t run the ball well, but schematically, they do some things to mitigate their running game.” — Group of 5 head coach “Ole Miss. With everything going on with Lane (Kiffin) and around their program, I can see why people might be doubting them, but they played Georgia so tight and could’ve beaten them. I feel like they’re gonna rally around Lane not being there. I think they can get into the semifinals.” — Group of 5 tight ends coach “If Notre Dame was in, I’d have said them, to be honest. I’ll say (Texas) A&M.” — Big Ten running backs coach “Miami. Their D-line is scary, and those guys can change a game. (WR) Malachi Toney is the most dangerous player in college football. I’m not sure how many people actually watch the ACC, but that kid is special. Notre Dame has a really good secondary and they couldn’t touch him, and he kept getting better and better as the season went on. They’ll use him at QB — and he can throw. They’ll line him up outside, in the slot. No one can cover him. He’s fast and super quick. They do so much stuff with him now.” — ACC offensive analyst Is there a path for the Group of 5 teams (Tulane and James Madison) to win a game this year? • No: 88% (my number is 12% higher) • Yes: 12% “I’d like to see it happen personally, because it keeps the hopes alive of like, 50-plus G5 programs, but they just can’t match up physically.” — Big 12 head coach “I think Tulane can pull off the big upset. Everybody’s thrown off by that first score (45-10 in late September). I think they have enough talent to be very competitive, but (Tulane QB Jake) Retzlaff has to be on. They don’t have the depth that Ole Miss has.” — Group of 5 head coach “No way. Tulane’s gonna be beat by 20-plus. JMU may lose by 40. They’re gonna get embarrassed.” — Big Ten running backs coach “The only shot is if someone’s buses break down.” — ACC offensive analyst Who do you think will pull off an upset? • Miami: 58% • No one: 25% • Oklahoma: 13% • Tulane: 4% “Miami over A&M. The Aggies are really good, but both their coordinators might be distracted, and Miami is really talented.” — Group of 5 tight ends coach “Oklahoma over Alabama. OU is playing at home. Their defense is really good and they have a pretty nasty pass rush. (QB John) Mateer hasn’t looked good since he got hurt in September, but he should be better with a few weeks off.” — Big Ten defensive line coach “Miami over A&M. Miami has a lot of talent top to bottom and (QB Carson) Beck has played in a ton of big games.” — Big 12 head coach Which team would you least like to play? • Georgia: 46% • Ohio State: 21% • Indiana: 17% • Miami: 8% • Ole Miss: 4% “Georgia. They can win in a bunch of different ways. They can beat you 40-something to 30-something or win a 13-7 game. There’s not a lot of those types of teams out there.” — Group of 5 head coach “Indiana. Their defense is a problem. Their scheme makes you work a lot harder. They’re very multiple. They’re so good with fire zones, simulated pressures, and do a good job of fitting the run. (Defensive coordinator Bryant) Haines does such a great job of breaking his own tendencies. He does some stuff that is NFL-complicated, and (QB Fernando) Mendoza’s post-snap decision-making is exceptional.” — Big Ten running backs coach “Ole Miss. They have that up-tempo spread. Their offense is a little different. They’re a headache to play against. Their running back (Kewan Lacy) is really good. He can take it the distance, and (Trinidad) Chambliss is a really good college quarterback.” — SEC defensive coordinator How many teams actually have a legitimate shot at being champions? • Three teams: 38% • Four teams: 21% • Six teams: 13% • Five teams: 8% • Seven teams: 8% • Eight teams: 8% • 10 teams: 4% Who do you think is the best coach in the Playoff? • Kirby Smart: 50% • Curt Cignetti: 38% • Dan Lanning: 8% • Joey McGuire: 4% “(Kirby) Smart. He’s won multiple national titles. He learned well from (Nick) Saban. It’s how he recruits and the schemes he has. Georgia’s a machine.” — Group of 5 head coach “Curt Cignetti. It’s really hard to argue against him. He talks so damn much, but give it to him. He’s backed it all up. I’d love to see them win it all.” — Group of 5 head coach “Both Kirby and Cignetti have their teams ready to play, and they have good game plans every week. That’s really all you can control. Kirby’s amazing. But as for who is doing the most with the least, that’s Cignetti.” — Big Ten running backs coach “Cignetti. Indiana’s gone to the Playoff in back-to-back years? Are you friggin’ kidding me? I know guys who used to work there. That place was a football graveyard. That place hadn’t been in the top 10 in like 100 years. (Editor’s note: 57 years.)” — ACC offensive coordinator “Smart. He’s won two national championships. He’s doing a great job of being a head coach and not just being a defensive guy. It feels like he helps their offense out a lot.” — SEC defensive coordinator “Cignetti. When he was talking his s—, I was like, who is this guy? But he backs it up. And when you watch them on both sides, his team is seriously well-coached. I just think he’s the best coach. And I respect his path too; to leave Alabama (as an assistant) to take a small-school job is so impressive.” — Big Ten defensive line coach

depends on what he looks like in the high pressure playoffs. I get wanting to be a 1st round pick, but I would absolutely dread playing for the Raiders Jets, maybe Arizona??? Now New Orleans would be better. I trust Kellen Moore to put Dante in a good position... but hey. but does Dante want to take a chance in another OC's offense that isnt Will Stein in what would be a crucial year next year??

By stalling CFP bracket expansion, Big Ten shows accidental genius

How do College Football Playoff teams compare financially? The gap can be tens of millions. This year’s College Football Playoff reflects the adage that you get what you pay for. The 12-team field includes the four teams with the largest football budgets, the nation’s two highest-paid coaches and three of the four highest-paid general managers. It also sets up a potential quarterfinal matchup where one head coach makes more than his competitor’s entire recent football budget. A few standard financial disclaimers: Different programs run their numbers differently. Budgets change yearly, and some figures are murky or missing, especially regarding private schools and NIL. Even with those caveats, we can still get a broad sense of how the 12 CFP contenders stack up against one another financially. How much CFP teams spend . . . Alabama is the highest spender at $112.2m. Texas A&M ($82.2m) Ohio State ($78.6m) Miami ($78.1m) Georgia ($68.9m) Oklahoma ($65.8m) Indiana ($61.3m) Ole Miss ($57.1m) Oregon ($53.9m) Texas Tech ($34.4m) James Madison ($15.9m) and Tulane ($13m). The first-round Texas A&M-Miami game looks even bigger through this lens, doesn’t it? Texas Tech’s figure is the lowest of the Power 4 teams here but about average in the Big 12; 11 of the conference’s members spent in the $30 million to $40 million range that year. The gap between Alabama and Tulane is large, but maybe not this large. We’ll make our wonky explanation as brief as possible: We’re using the U.S. Department of Education database because it’s the only tool that includes every public and private school (except service academies). However, reporting lags behind, so the most complete numbers are from 2023-24. Alabama’s figures were exceptionally high that year, and Tulane’s figures were exceptionally low. Fortunately, the Green Wave and Crimson Tide have both posted more recent federal reports. Alabama reported $78.5 million in expenses in 2024-25. Tulane reported $22.7 million, which was still behind South Florida ($33.4 million) in the American Conference. The CFP revenue gap . . . Alabama is the highest earner at $138.7m. Georgia ($133.7m) Oklahoma ($124.9m) Texas A&M ($122.4m) Ohio State ($111.6m) Oregon ($109.2m) Miami ($78.1m) Ole Miss ($75.3m) Texas Tech ($62.3m) Indiana ($61.3m) James Madison ($15.9m) and Tulane ($6.9m). Again, Tulane’s figure is abnormally low and ahead of only Kennesaw State ($8.3 million) nationally. But the Green Wave’s most recent report listed football revenue at $24 million. Ohio State’s football income is also much larger ($160.5 million in its latest report). The No. 1 program was Texas at just north of $200 million. I’m sure that’ll make the Longhorns feel great knowing the Aggies are in the first round. Another rivalry aspect: Indiana ranked one spot below Purdue ($61.6 million). Bottom line, as the sec likes to tout "It just costs more"

Here is a cut and paste article I get free with an email address. Not behind their pay wall . . . An especially anxious opening round The initial part of any tournament is emotionally fraught. All that jockeying just to make it into the field. (Plus lobbying, in sports that are especially fraught.) A fired-up home crowd, rewarded by success and desperate for more. (We now have home crowds! Briefly.) The obvious stakes: Crush it, or hit the couch. This year's College Football Playoff starts with especially big feelings all around. Among the power-conference reps, there's no just-happy-to-be-here fan base like last year's Arizona State, Indiana or SMU. At the time, Ryan Day was the lightning rod for all postseason angst. In two of this year's first-round games, the losing team will suffer such psychic damage in front of 10 million pairs of eyeballs that we'll wonder whether it might just be healthier to go hide at the Citrus Bowl instead. (The winning fans, meanwhile, will begrudgingly admit that their unique blend of demons and/or rich-kid problems has been momentarily held at bay.) Imagine being Texas A&M. After reaching 11-0 with a top-two seed in sight and building a 10-3 lead over the nemesis Longhorns, A&M instead melted down, missed on an SEC title shot and is now just a 3.5-point BetMGM favorite against No. 10 Miami. Now imagine losing this game. At home. Perpetually nervous Aggie fans would never trust their team ever again. At the same time, imagine Miami losing. The ACC, blanked in the 12-team Playoff for the second time. No wins in the four-team era after 2019. Granted, that would just add to the ever-simmering panic known as Being The ACC. For the Canes themselves, a road loss to a team with comparable talent would only fuel frustrations about Mario Cristobal's losses to teams with less. The night before that game, either No. 8 Oklahoma (-1.5) beats No. 9 Alabama and we all trade confident fanfic about Kalen DeBoer wanting to leave — or Bama wins, and we just keep doing that anyway. Sure, maybe he does! I haven't had a chance to ask. Regardless, Ralph Russo ranks Nick Saban's successor as the Playoff coach doing the most sweating. (The Sooners are by far the least grumpy team among these four, but you know what'd change that? Becoming the first team to ever lose an FBS Playoff game at home, probably while scoring like 11 points despite having brought in a whole new offense in the offseason.) In the other two first-round games, teams from zillion-dollar conferences host three-score underdogs with seemingly nothing to lose, seeing as the little guys are already set to lose their head coaches as soon as their seasons end. But assuming Ole Miss and Oregon win against Tulane and JMU, we'll endure a repeat of last year's griping about early-round blowouts, this time targeting small conferences personally. Two striving programs, carrying banners for their schools while staring up at behemoths? Intense enough already. But in college football, where every outcome must serve as a referendum on the state of whatever, loud voices will also declare Tulane and JMU responsible for the respectability of every other university outside the Power 4 as well. Lot to ask. Then again, if a big upset happens, we'll have the emotional catastrophe of the season. Especially if it's an Oregon that also got embarrassed in its Playoff debut last year (against Ohio State) and still doesn't have a title, despite all those investments. Or if it's ... good heavens ... an Ole Miss that suddenly looks like it badly needed Lane Kiffin all along. Oh, and in the next round, a No. 4 Texas Tech loss would draw lots of chortling about new-money narratives, No. 1 Indiana risks squandering by far the greatest moment in program history and ... well, whenever No. 3 Georgia or No. 2 Ohio State end up with any record besides 15-0, it's a national emergency. Also, losses by Oregon or Ole Miss would hit almost as hard in that round, since they retroactively wouldn't get any credit for having beaten a G5 in Round 1. No pressure!

Yes, the season is a success. 11- 1 with nail biters vs Penn St. and Iowa, plus closeness vs ewe dub. Exciting football. But we need unmitigated success! SCO 🦆s

Top players on teams OBD will play in 2026 who are off to the NFL - USC - WR Makai is out of eligibility. QB Mavai returns, but Safety Kamair Ramsey and WR Ja'Kobi Lane have declared for the draft. And DC D'Anton Lynn is rumored to be returning to his alma mater, Penn State, in the same role. Nebraska - Big Ten RB of the Year, Emmett Johnson, has declared for the draft. Moore to follow?

I always find the idea of _______ or bust to be an interesting mentality. The season is a book and each game is its own little chapter in that book. If Oregon wins the National Championship this year that makes this an INCREDIBLE year and you put that book on the shelf as a part of a longer Oregon Football history. But if we fail to reach the title game or a semi final game or whatever was this season just a waste? Personally, I have enjoyed the journey so far this year (minus the one bump) and I am excited to see how it all ends, though I would personally love to see it end on a win and there is only one way that happens. Maybe I just don't get on the "bust" mentality. I want a national title as much as any other Duck fan but I know that each season brings its own story and I'm here for that.

My expectation going into this year with no context, was one playoff win. I definitely want to win it all, and think we have a shot, but it really is a crapshoot once you enter the tournament. Context is everything. If we win the first and second round, but then lose by 1 point to an undefeated team that goes on to win at all, it would be tough not to call that a great season. Likewise, winning against JMU, but then losing to Tech would meet my original expectation, but would also be very disappointing. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity…but good opportunity is way better than bad 😆

Eugene is predicted to get FIVE INCHES today, as much rain in a month coming down in one day? It is supposed to let up on Saturday morning...

On one of the pay-sites....someone reported a video made by a CFB content creator where Dak Moore was actually interviewed. He explained the injury, and when run by a doctor who specializes in such injuries--the estimate was given that it would only take about six weeks to heal. And it was noted that we are right at six weeks at the moment!

It was an accurate slip, as it is not a "new" Pac-12, but a "New World" Mountain West. Those teams are targeting an NIL budget of only seven million a year, as it is all they can afford. Whew!

Freudian slip? Or just saying out loud what we here at OBD think! Either way, it's a very funny gaffe. I'm curious to see which of these 8 schools can compete with the likes of Tulane, or mighty JMU.

Appreciate you and all of the team members who work together to provide this outstanding resource! Excited to be here for another Natty Run! Or swim, as it may be Saturday...

Didn't realize Kirby Moore was Kellen's brother. New Washington State coach makes 'Mountain West' blunder He may be right about where he is coaching sooner rather than later.