Solar

I think the biggest upset probability for the day is No 11 OSU playing at unranked AZ in the desert at 7:30 pm, a recipe for an absolute disaster of a game for a PNW school. And UA is without a doubt the best 3 loss team in the country with their new QB Fifita in place of De Laura. I hope OSU wins, but I'm not optimistic.

It's legal to steal signs in certain ways and illegal in others. As you'd imagine, the most effective ways are illegal, which is the way Michigan was doing it.

Yeah, I'm not sure what they are going to do. Most likely probablility is to start it on a different Fox network, but which one? The Fox Sports channel has football games of it's own. Edit: Fox's sports 2 has 3 hours of horse racing, so maybe that will be it. I don't know if there is a streaming option they can make available too.

You can get away with stacking the box because they don't have a deep pass reliably. Make them beat us over the top. Just make sure we've got a corner on Vaki and not an LB or DE.

The analogy here is like an NFL player that makes the pro bowl, gets caught taking roids, has to stop and is out of the league in two years 'cause he isn't good enough without them. We'll see.

Oregon Ducks 31 Utes 27 1 4 193 I feel like I'm playing the price is right and bidding over Charles by $1; sorry man, but we're pretty close on how we think this turns out guess.

I'm guessing we set a record for # of viewers for our games this year. We are barely over halfway through the season and we've been playing in the prime time slots on national TV week in and week out. 2nd Game day appearance now. We still play USC which will be prime time guaranteed. If Beavers and us win out that would be prime time too. It's almost like the old days when every weekend it was Notre Dame and you couldn't escape it. No you can't escape seeing us on TV. It's going to help recruiting.

Yeah, the TCU article is the most eye opening revelation. Remember the Trading Places movie with Eddie Murphy and Dan Akroyd where they know the bad guys are going to use insider trading to beat the commodity market and they spoof the data results and bankrupt the bad actors? When you compare Georgia and Michigan's seasons last year, they weren't that different in terms of results, but when you compare TCU vs both in the playoffs the disparity was massive. Perhaps Michigan got to the playoffs because of sign stealing, and TCU was the only team with time to prepare for it and spoof their signs, causing Michigan to think pass left when it was run right. It's a very fine line between success and failure. It's definitely a quandary for B1G leadership. One person on this board that welcomed us to the B1G told us to have eyes wide open that everything is done for the best interest if TOSU and MU. This situation will certainly test that bias.

I agree with much of your logic, but we are #1 in YPG in the country. If we are held to a lower score it's likely because we have to settle for a bunch of field goals. 28 pts implies 4 touchdowns and no field goals. Not possible unless you assume Lewis misses every field goal try.

Guessing the score is like guess the 3rd down and 4th down conversion percentage for each team. I'll take optimistic route that Klein has added a few new no-brainer short yardage plays, like simple slants and our conversion rate is over 50%, and that our DL wins some battles keeping Utah a few conversions short at less than 50% like Washington State. Their will be some explosive plays on both sides, but not enough to dictate overall success. Final score: Oregon 34 Utah 30 The difference being we get one touchdown where they settle for a field goal. I am also assuming Lewis misses 1 field goal, because we will definitely outgain them in yardage.

No, I'm arguing their offense is no longer broken and is capable of scoring 5 or more points above their average (per your data), for a total of 30 points or more at home. The number 1 key to this game is short yardage down and distance. I think there will be a lot of those for both teams' offenses given both defenses abilities to minimize chunk plays.

That will also give us the option to bring some serious pressure, while keeping Barnes contained if they do pass. I do agree it will be to our advantage to play aggressive on defense.

If we're going to wear this combo this is the game to do it.

I just watched the Utah vs. USC condensed game. I think Utah's offense is good enough to potentially put up 30 points on us at their home. Yes USC defense isn't that great, but it's been playing better lately and that Vaki kid is somebody you just try to slow down but can't stop. We need to score more than 30 and I think we can. USC had decent success running the ball on them, and I think we can to. If this game does come down to one key think it would be how we do in short yardage situations. It's been our Achilles heel this year, and Utah will be tough in those situations at home.

The NFL automatic playoff birth for division winners. Some divisions are garbage and round robin each other twice.

I think it is likely our toughest game we have left to play, even if the Beavers are a clear notch above them. Although I'm very happy we are playing Utah in October in a noon time game rather than PAC12 after bedtime in November. That does reduce the degree of difficulty.

Good Point. I think we find a spot for him like Riley did for Kliff Klingsbury

I keep saying this. It's harder to win an away game in the west than in the SEC. While it's certainly a challenge to win with a loud rabid fan base against you, it's not the only variable. The west means longer travel distance AND wildly different air. It sounds silly, but the difference in air temp, density, humidity, and even the smell of the particulates combine to provide a dramatic different effect that both physical and psychological impacts the players. Why do the PNW teams always perform poorly in the desert in November? Why do teams struggle at elevation in Utah?

I almost feel bad for Williams that he has to carry his team and they still lose, but then I remember he chose to follow Riley..He won a Heisman already though. I do wonder if the team is starting to lose it a little with the Riley to the NFL rumours. It certainly did a number on us when Cristobal rumoured to Miami.

Remember when we barely lost to Auburn in 2019 and came home and smashed Nevada 70-3? Remember when we got beat by Georgia and came home and smashed Eastern Washington 70-14? Remember how we destroyed PSU and their next game they destroyed their opponent? In college we had a super hard physics instructor for two terms with his 30 question multiple choice tests. He had a heart attack during the 3rd term, so a different professor finished the term. On the first test with the new professor in his way easier test format all 30 people in the class got 100%. The professor was in shock saying he'd never seen anything like it. I'm not sure what to call this psychological effect where you adapt to the higher level of difficulty and then absolutely demolish the next challenge that is less difficult. I hope that affect happens to us against WSU at home Saturday.

And you posted this, so you could have another round, sneaky guy.

I'm disappointed to see this for the WSU game. Like others the Civil War would have made way more sense.

The fact that analytics can predict the selection committee should not lead one to assume the process is devoid of bias. Two factors in their calculations are exposed to significant bias: top 25 teams are selected by opinion, and therefore strength of schedule and top 25 wins are a function of those opinions. I firmly believe the expanded playoff is going to be one year too late. Look at the top 12. Any of them could conceivably beat any of the other 11 on any given Saturday, thanks to NIL and the portal spreading the wealth to the top 20ish teams. I am hoping the ranking formula does change going forward where there is less focus on the losses and more focus on the wins and how teams are playing at the end of the season.

DL's press conference yesterday is a must watch. He discussed his 4TH Down decision making. Many people here won't like what he says. My comment is that if you have the defensive look you want to run your offensive play call, and the play is still defended to the point of being a total cluster, maybe you need to revisit some of what you think you know as an OC. That being said, for the 300th time, going for it on 4th and 2 at the end of the game was absolutely the right decision. I'm glad the play-not-to-lose crowd isn't in charge of the Ducks. I've seen too much of that over the years in CFB and the NFL lead to disaster.

14J package got stuffed by UW last year on 4th and 1 a couple of times at home. It wouldn't have worked with 4th and 3 on the road against an improved UW front Saturday. Our OL are not road graders. The best runs are pin and pull where the RB waits for the blocking to set up. We need new plays for 4th and 2-5 yards. Plays with multiple options after the ball is snapped, or at least a quick play action like to Kelly against Colorado. RPO, or even sitting back in the pocket with receivers TEs and RBs breaking just behind the wall of pressure. Or even as someone else above mentioned, just run one of your 2 point conversion specials. Don't move the ball laterally behind the line of scrimmage. Don't hand off up the gut especially from a slow developing pistol formation unless it's a QB option read.