Jon Joseph

I made this comment on another post earlier but I do not think FOX after raiding LA and elbowing ESPN out of the B1G will be a bidder for Pac-10 media rights. Agree with all of your observations and I hope the conference media deal will at least match that of the new B12 deal. As Charles so correctly points out below, streaming does provide the ability to watch at any time. At least for the time, the partner streams the games. Living on the Right Coast I can tell you that games that kick off at 10:30 eastern time are must-tape and unwatchable live for grey beards and also for many recruits who are 'footballed out' by late in the day on Saturday.

Compete, 'yes.' Make the last Final 4 before the playoff field expands? I doubt it. It will still be 2 losses and you are done in 2023. The competition in the Pac-12 is likely to be at an all-time high. Unlike UCLA, Oregon plays a team with a pulse out-of-conference (OOC) when the Ducks travel to Texas Tech. Michigan plays 3 donut holes OOC again this season all in Ann Arbor and top to bottom the Pac-12 is a more difficult gauntlet than is the B1G. In 2022, the Pac-12 finished with 6 teams ranked, the B1G 3. Yet the B1G sent 2 teams to the final 4. You know the SEC champ is in and is there a B12 team that will go on a run like TCU did last season? I doubt it. But Clemson with a new OC could be in the mix? I see a Final 4 coming from UGA, Bama, LSU, OH ST, MI, and maybe Clemson. In 2024 the Pac-10 champ will be in. Oregon will get UW at home and if it plays Utah will also likely get Utah at home. Texas Tech will play in Eugene. That's a far friendlier schedule than playing at UW, Utah and versus USC, and Oregon State at home. Stanford and CAL should be 'gimmes' but other than that it will be an every-game struggle. But I love the trajectory that Lanning has the Ducks on.

While the proof is not yet in the pudding, the Pac-10 has yet to finalize its new media deal, it has been widely reported and speculated that the new media agreement will have approximately 50% of the money ball sports, men's football, and basketball broadcast via streaming instead of on traditional linear network and cable television. If this structure comes to fruition the Pac-10 will become the beta site (test site) for the streaming of the Power 5 money ball sports. Is this a risk that the Pac-10 can afford at this point in time? Without having the final new media deal numbers in hand this is a question that at this time is anyone's best guess. Without the LA schools in the conference and with the ACC locked into a woeful media deal through 2036, the benchmark for broadcast comparative purposes is the Big 12 (B12) conference. (The Pac-10 will not come close to the huge media deals that have been executed by the B1G and the SEC conferences.) The B12's existing deal includes the soon-to-depart Oklahoma and Texas and expires in 2025. The B12 including its four new members joining in 2023, jumped ahead of the Pac-10 with its media negotiations and has concluded its new media deal with FOX and ESPN. Each B12 member will receive approximately $37M a year in media revenue under the new agreement. All B12 games will be broadcast on ESPN and FOX. (A number of non-revenue sports games will be carried on the ESPN3 streaming service.) With it being no secret that the B12 would like to add Pac-10 teams, the Pac-10 is doing all it can to equal or exceed the $37M per season number. The most likely streaming partner for the Pac-10 is Amazon. Amazon is headquartered in Pac-10 country, Seattle, and has already dipped its toe into the sports broadcast waters with its weekly broadcast of an NFL game. In 2022, the NFL broadcast produced a positive return on investment for Amazon. Larry's Loser Network has left, finally, the San Francisco headquarters building for less costly facilities south of San Francisco. Amazon's NFL games were broadcast via an NBC subsidiary; Amazon does not have its own sports production facilities A streaming of games agreement with Amazon could bring about a serendipitous marriage of this huge network with the slimmed-down and less costly Pac-Network and perhaps finally put the network in the black. In 2019, Amazon Prime (the company's broadcast arm that distributes such programs as the ultra-successful 'Yellowstone' series) had 150M worldwide customers. In 2022 this number had grown to over 200M worldwide customers including 76.6M subscribers in the United States. 59% of American households had at least one Amazon Prime membership in 2022. The amount of American household customers is vital because many outside of the USA prefer futbol over football. Note that in addition to the cost of the Prime membership, Amazon does charge extra to watch popular programs such as Yellowstone. A Pac-10 streaming package is likely to come with a one-off game or annual package additional charge. In contrast with Amazon, ESPN lost approximately 3.5M subscribers last season and 7.2% of its customer subscription base since 2011. Folks are indeed cutting the cable cord for alternative viewing opportunities. And since 2011 ESPN's costs to broadcast the NFL, NBA, college football games and other well-watched sporting events have soared. Media experts predict that ESPN will have to move much of its broadcasting from linear to streaming in order to compete with Amazon and other high-tech companies such as Apple. Of course, streaming 50% of your most valuable sports inventory does not come without risk. How many folks familiar with linear TV will watch Pac-10 football and basketball via streaming? How will kickoff and tip-off times work? Could many of the Pac-10 Late Nite games be played earlier in the day and streamed throughout the day and the week? Will ESPN show highlights from these games on Sports Center and College Football Final? Will the moving of half of the money ball product off of linear TV hurt football and basketball recruiting? I'm sure there are many other issues that more tech savvy people than I ( that's most of the known universe) will have. The Pac-12 went its own way with the network and feel on its financial face. Could this new venture result in the same or result in the conference being the leader into the brave new world of streaming college sports?

BTW, Trojans and Bruins fans, my brother Charles who lives there tells me that it is 2 below in Boston today with a wind chill factor of -27 degrees. Enjoy the wintertime travel y'all.

Gonzo is a 1st rounder in every mock I've seen.

Is it the dog named Einstein who was featured in the Back to the Future movies? Regardless, that dog is one smart SOB.

THIS sure looks like 'voodoo' math unless the remaining and new B12 members would be willing to take a lesser piece of the pie. After stealing LA I don't think FOX is interested in Pac-12 football. Big check for ESPN to write for the OR, UW, UT, CU, AZ, and ASU inventory of games. This # has to factor in a big-time investment by a streaming service(s). Most of these companies are laying off employees left and right. I do think Amazon will be a part of the Pac-12 media deal but I don't see Amazon overpaying or paying anywhere close to what it paid the NFL. But I would love this 'merger' IF it resulted in this final number.

A graduate, graduate transfer? Has Bo earned a Ph.D.?

You would think that nonsense such as this would take an entire keg?

Closer to home reasons.

Lose 1 to USC(e). Win 1 from USC(w.)

Amen. And BTW they refuse to build new desperately needed reservoirs. Most of the epic rainfall went down the drain.

He looked but the smog blocked his view.

With the recent storms, the 2nd largest reservoir in California has risen an incredible 182 feet. Reported by the Mercury News

Thanks for the update. Dragging out the move to the SEC out is making it tough on B12 in-conference scheduling. I believe the B12 offered to reduce the cost of OK/TX leaving but wanted a guarantee that the 2 schools would play X number of out-of-conference games in B12 stadiums.

In his latest mailbag, the Athletic's Andy Staples listed a number of teams other than the 'usual suspects,' Bama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Georgia that will have an opportunity year after year to make the 12-team playoff field and win the playoff. The Ducks are the only Pac-10 team to make Andy's list. I hate to say it but I think UW under DeBoer should probably be on the list. Also perhaps, Utah. Others with a better chance to win a playoff-expanded field title: Oklahoma, Penn State, FSU, LSU, and Florida. Staples is among those who believe that come 2026 the field will expand to 16 teams with no first-round byes. ESPN will be paying more for the playoff broadcast rights in 2024 and 2025 but come 2026 with broadcast rights being sold on the open market the playoff income will likely be off the charts. Makes one wonder if the Pac-10 will not be better off staying at 10 teams. I'm sure that George K. will be running the alternative numbers.

Great pick-up by Dilly as was getting QB Pyne to transfer from Notre Dame to ASU. Rashada will likely have a year to prepare to play as Pyne is likely to be the starter. One QB move I didn't 'get.' Huard to Cal Poly. One of Huard's high school coaches is a coach there but that's a big drop in competition for a 5* recruit.

This is a great post. Thanks, Charles. This take from an SC fan is even more hilarious when considering the manner in which SC stole WR Addison from Pitt. The other big beef from SC fans. They are upset that in 2023, SC has to play Utah in LA the Saturday after playing at Notre Dame. Cry me a river. No one is forcing SC to play Notre Dame every year. And SC fans who are not clueless have to realize that playing ND every year only serves to help ND in recruiting California. (Ditto Stanford.) Hats off to Dan Lanning and his crew. Dan et al did a great job with recruiting the 2023 class and also mining the portal.

This makes absolute sense in this day and age of transfer portal being all good. Keep the 85 total scholarship limit but do not limit the number of newbies. And in anticipation of a playoff expansion eliminate divisions and have the top 2 teams play for the conference title. This also makes absolute sense with the SEC going to 16 teams and other conferences likely to follow.

NCAA oversight committee: Ease conference title game requirements, waive recruiting class size restrictions - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM The two proposed pieces of legislation will be voted on by the Division I Council later in May

I'm doing the best that I can. I do believe it's getting better, it's getting better all the time And I can use every bit of help I can possibly get.

Who knew?

Thank you for the correction. Beat Utah? Been there, done that. Beat the defending national champ in its home state? Beat an SEC behemoth? I don't think beating Utah at home comes close? But that's just me?

Which of the QBs in the room has faced the most quality Ds on the field of play? I agree. The starter has to be Nix and I hope his ankle injury recovers better before fall practice, THIS is today's CFB. Likely that Ty or Butterfield will enter the portal but so be it. I think Ty following Moorhead to Akron and getting lots of starting reps would make a lot of sense.

Millions will see Oregon take a loss in Atlanta. Hundreds of thousands will watch Oregon defeat Utah. CFB today is Big Business, The Big Business eyeballs will be focused on Atlanta on 9/3 and not, if the Ducks lose, on Autzen vs Utah in November. Take an L in Atlanta then Oregon will have to go 12-0. This is a big ask; especially, with 5 conference road games. The game in Atlanta and Utah at Florida matters; matters significantly for the upcoming media negotiations Disparate CFB OOC scheduling is a Playoff joke. Play UCLA's schedule OOC and Oregon is on a Playoff roll. Ditto plating Michigan's OOC schedule. You schedule opening games vs Auburn and Georgia you have to, Playoff wise, win the darn game. If you don't win the game Utah at Oregon will have regional and national meaning.