Jon Joseph

Sorry for the double post; posted 1st addition before correction made.

Interesting that the Saturday after the 1st release of the Committee rankings CFB has but 1 game, 13 Auburn at 14 A+M, featuring top 25 vs top 25. Nevertheless, there are any number of games this weekend that could impact the "WHO IS IN" question. #3 MICHIGAN STATE -3 at NR PURDUE - 3:30 ABC - 9 times a NR Boilermakers team has defeated the #2 team in the country. Tied for second on this list with 4 such wins is Arizona. After a stirring comeback vs Michigan will Sparty have enough in the tank to win on the road against a feisty 5-3 Purdue? #5 OHIO STATE -14.5 at NR NEBRASKA - Noon FOX - Ohio State fans are not happy about being ranked behind a team the Buckeyes lost to? TOUGH! Ohio State struggled on the road to put away #20 Minnesota and at home last Saturday to defeat NR Penn State. But Ohio State has creamed the crummy teams it has played this season. Nebraska is a crummy team and the Buckeyes have good reason to want to blow away the Frosty's. But Lincoln is a tough place to play and this game is the Cornhuskers Super Bowl? #9 WAKE FOREST +2.5 at NR UNC - Noon ABC - Believe it or not sports fans this is the 1st game of a home and home "nonconference game" series? I think UNC wins in a big time shoot out which would mean the ACC's slim PO hopes will vaporize. But an L will not count against Wake's ACC record? THE SOONER SPECIALS - You can bet that #8 Oklahoma's (idle in Week 10) coaches, players and fans will be watching the following two games and cheering for the #11 Cowboys and the #12 Bears! Both still to play Oklahoma. BTW: When 'traitor' Oklahoma trips to Stillwater to play OK ST it will be BEDLAM! The governor of Oklahoma best be ready to call out the entire state police force and the OK national guard. #11 OKLAHOMA STATE -2.5 at NR WEST VIRGUNIA - 3:30 ESPN - West Virginia is 4-4 but has good home wins over VA Tech and last week versus Iowa State. And W VA was in the game at Oklahoma well into the 4th quarter. #12 BAYLOR -7 at NR TCU - 3:30 FOX - Rather ironic that this matchup, which has produced many great games, is the first game for the Horned Frogs post the departure of long time HC Gary Patterson. The Baylor Bears has been one of the great bounce back stories of 2021. HC Dave Aranda, former DC at LSU, has taken a 2W team in 2020 to #12 in the country. (Possible Further Irony? Sonny Dykes takes the TCU job and Patterson takes the SMU job?) #13 AUBURN +4.5 at #14 TEXAS A+M - 3:30 CBS - Auburn HC Bryan Harsin has seamlessly made the transition from Mountain West Boise to The Plains. (Sigh. Pac-12 teams, this guy was right next door and not making a huge amount of $.) Many Auburn fans thought that Harsin was a bad, bad hire. But Auburn has been in every game and up and down QB, Bo Nix, is playing by far, the most consistent and best ball of his career. A+M QB Calzada balled out versus Bama but has otherwise been average at best. A+M wins and Bama's L looks better? Auburn wins and it could set up a great matchup in the Iron Bowl. FWIW, I do not think that this is a vintage Bama team and is over ranked at #2? #4 OREGON -7 (up from the opening -6.5) at NR WASHINGTON - 7:30 ABC - Amazingly, UW has a chance at winning out, winning the Pac-12 N, winning the Pac-12 champ game and playing in the Rose Bowl. UW would love to cut Oregon off at the Playoff pass. Won't happen. But this is the first of 5 tough games in 5 weeks for the Ducks. Compare what the top 5 PO Committee ranked teams left compared to Cincinnati? Cincinnati did not 'get screwed.' 100 SOS. 5 wins against teams with losing records. Playing in a conference ranked #11. My advice? Watch the FOX pregame show on Saturday and not the sob fest that will be Gameday's visit to Cincinnati. Why wouldn't Rece and crew be there for the titanic battle between Cincy and Tulsa?

AMEN. CFB indifference is rampant throughout the Pac-12 conference. In the SEC Lake might have already been handed his walking papers? When UW fans stop caring that is just another bad sign for CFB in general and Oregon's place in the CFB world in particular. TX TECH and OK ST fans give a whip and show up?

"Commitment," as used in in CFB recruiting is a perfect example of the Latin: 'Non Sequitur.'

I agree. But the AAC according to any number of algorithms is not a stronger conference than the Pac-12. 5 of the 8 teams CIN has defeated to date have losing records.

Charles, perhaps I was wrong (no surprise there) yesterday when I said that the UW AD will give Lake a second year? UW will ball out on Saturday for so many reasons including redemption on network TV. UW is still in the hunt for the Pac-12N, a champ game win and a trip to the Rose Bowl. And UW would like nothing more than to cut Oregon off at the pass.

Thanks Joshua. Good point on Tulsa but I think OK is being punished by the CT at 8 for desultory play vs Tulsa, Kansas and others?

The question confuses me, no doubt. Both have 2 tough road games ahead; OK plays at OK ST and at Baylor. Simply based on the committee rankings it appears that Oklahoma has the tougher row to hoe? But OK's roster advantage, especially on O, is far superior to the other members in the B12. As of now, it depends on what book you want to look at? The FPI is down on the Ducks but it is not a very accurate model. The model at the Athletic has Oregon at 30-1 to win the title, down from 50-1 before the rankings came out. 5th best odds in the nation and better than OK. But I have to go with Oklahoma. (Sigh.) The main reason being that OK has already played and won 9 games. OK has one fewer regular season game left to deal with than do the Ducks. This is a bye week for OK that is perfectly timed to have the Sooners ready for the stretch run. Oregon has 4 consecutive tough games left and is already pretty well dinged up.

Thank you so much for this post Charles. I'm not surprised that Mario has the class to rise above Lake's self imposed fray. Lake is doing all he can to be fired in his first season. Jen Cohen likely won't pull the trigger on Lake until he screws it up in year 2? The bottom line. Oregon making the PO means $6M for the conference and another $4M from the team representing the conference in the Rose Bowl. Oregon to the Rose means the $6M goes away. Along with pride, there is lots of $ at stake based on Oregon, again, carrying the conference. This is the kind of money the conference usually misses out and that the SEC brings in year after year. GO DUCKS!

Not so certain that this version of Bama will beat UGA? Bama's run game is way down from its usual standard and the WRs while gifted are not the elite group of the last couple of seasons. Undefeated OK with 11 OK ST and 12 Baylor left to play and a top 25 opponent in the B12 champ game is in. Wake on the other hand has a SOS of 98. NC ST is ranked at 19 and Pitt at 25 but I could see an undefeated Wake left out under a number of circumstances? My guess, Wake takes an L this Saturday at UNC?

CINCINNATI, Give It A Rest! SOS of 100. 5 of 8 wins vs teams with losing records. Yet, Cincy at 6 is the highest Committee ranked G5 team of all time! How can 'this' come as surprise when you are kissing the AAC goodbye and moving to the B12 to have a far more realistic path to the Playoff? BTW, as Mike West pointed out today, Bama is not a lock to beat UGA. IMO, this Bama team is not a lock to win at Auburn? Ohio State has 3 MI ST and 7 Michigan left on the schedule and a likely top 25 match up vs a top 25 B1G W team. The Ducks have 2 rivalry games left, one on the road, play a resurgent WA ST at home and draw the toughest cross over opponent it could draw at this point in the season, Utah. And the game is at Utah in late November. If I'm a Cincinnati fan I like that even with the lousy SOS, the Bearcats are perfectly positioned to move up if a few dominoes fall in Cincy's direction. I've watched Fresno, San Diego State and Cincy play and I am not certain that Cincy would beat Fresno and SDS? I'm not certain Cincy will beat SMU, that lost to Houston because of a bone headed coaching decision. And Houston in the AAC champ game will not be a layup for the Bearcats. Ohio State has played 3 tough opponents. It won a close game at 20 Minnesota and a close game at home vs NR Penn State,. The Bucks lost at home to 4 Oregon. Lost in a game the Ducks controlled from start to finish. Oregon's L at Stanford is supposed to cancel the victory Oregon put up at your house? Come On! Frankly, the team IMO with a better beef with Oregon at 4 than Ohio State is 7 Michigan, a team that lost a close game on the road to #3 and swept its OOC opponents including a visiting Pac-12 team. Of course, ESPN loves this kind of angst. Angst that is showing and growing a month+ away from "Election Day.' The Basketball Committee doesn't do these interim dog and pony shows. But then again, ESPN does not own the basketball tournament. Savor the 4, yes. But there is a whole lot of ball to be played before the matter is decided. I'd sure rather have Cincy's schedule ahead of me instead of the one the Ducks have to play.

After Tuesday night Oregon's odds to win the PO, as calculated by The Athletic, went from 50-1 to 30-1, 5th best odds to win it all.

According to The Athletic's model Oregon now has the 5th shortest odds to win the PO. Oregon went from 50 - 1 to 30 -1.

I believe there is some bias but if there was that much bias Oregon would not be at 4. The Committee rankings IMO accurately reflect the way the Pac-12 has played this season both out of conference and in conference. There is no doubt that Oregon was given considerable credit for the W in Columbus that negated a bad loss at Stanford. I think it is certainly fair to note that as of this week the Committee loves the B1G W and except for the Mountain West doesn't think much of the G5. I find it somewhat ironic for Cincy fans to beef when they are leaving the G5 for the P5 specifically to be better able to qualify for the playoff. Cincy has a SOS of 100. Play that kind of schedule and you are lucky to be ranked at 6, the highest a G5 team has ever been ranked by the Committee.

Or possibly, stolen away?

Also on this staff - Lane Kiffin and Louisiana's Bill Napier.

Great points. Except his season the Pac-12 is 0-4 vs BYU (will probably be 0-5 after BYU plays USC) has 2Ls vs FCS schools and a bad record vs the Mountain West. Good call on the talent going west to east. Why? Because the BCS and the so-called Playoff made CFB far more of a national rather than regional sport and lifted the SEC to new heights. while crippling the Pac-12. Success breeds success. The SEC year after year sends more guys on to the NFL than any other conference. And, of course, the SEC gets at least 1 team in the PO year after year. Also the SEC and the B1G through Delaney's tenure, have had great leadership. Delaney came up with the idea of a network dedicated to a single conference's athletics and convinced FOX to pay for it! The SEC's Roy Kramer was the guy who came up with divisions and sold the BCS to the other P5 conferences. The Pac-12? Would you have put the Rose Bowl on the same level as the Peach Bowl in return for trinkets? Would you start a network without a media partner and without adequate distribution contracts in place? Lots of reasons the Pac-12 is lagging behind but many of the injuries have been self-inflicted. IMO the conference should have expanded its geographic reach when the B12 imploded. It's not too late to do so but time is running out and viable expansion candidates are disappearing.

WHAT A COACHING STAFF! Georgia 1, Bama 2, MI ST 3, Oregon 4. In 2015, Georgia HC Smart, MI ST HC Tucker and Oregon HC Cristobal were all on Saban's staff at Bama!

YES! How sweet it is. Now boys, hold on to this spot, please?

Love seeing this! Thanks Charles. Dennis Dodd of CBS in an article yesterday, stated that tOSU had a better SOS than the Ducks. Clueless! Boy, the CT went out of its way to prop up the B1G W and set up a top 25 match up for the B1G E champ. B1G love for MN, WI and Iowa and not much for the G5 outside of the MW. 2 Mountain West teams ranked and 1 Pac-12 team? Kind of speaks for itself, no? Follow the $. Yes, there are plenty of B1G and SEC schools ranked by the Committee. The schools in these two conferences have money to spend on football and they spend it. I just can't see the Pac-12 as currently constituted being able to compete long term against the B1G and the SEC? I think Tucker going from CU to MI ST and Leach from WA ST to MS ST is going to happen whenever the conference of champions produces a football coach with national bona fides?

My bad. OK does have a W over 5-3 Kansas State a team that beat up Stanford in the first game of the season.

Flaky Prediction Index.

As Joshua noted, OK has no wins over a team with better than a .500 record. No top 25 wins. And plenty of close escapes against bad teams including Kansas.

Great take Joshua. But I disagree regarding Cincinnati. I think Cincy at 6 is high.. The Bearcats SOS is 100. Unlike the AP Poll, no other AAC team is ranked by the Committee. IMO, this season's Notre Dame team should be the lowest ranked 1L team, behind both OK ST and Baylor? If any team is under ranked, IMO, it's Michigan at 7? I think Michigan has as good a lose as Bama. And Bama's OOC schedule is putrid. Miami is a .500 team in a bad conference. I don't have a beef with Bama at 2, but MS ST at 17? I know it was a questionable loss but MS ST did lose to Memphis. If MS ST is not ranked I see no reason why Bama should be ranked ahead of Michigan? Certainly not 5 spots higher than Michigan. BTW. Based on its OOC play and in conference play, I have no beef with the Ducks being the only ranked Pac-12 team. This is not east coast bias, it is bad west coast play. But it's all just debate material until after the conference champ games. Thanks again, good stuff!

Why not give Huard a shot?