CalBear95

If it makes the Ducks feel slighted and play with an edge I'm here for it! Put the Ducks second on the list but with a few return lines in between them and Indiana.

I sometimes wonder if this is due to the how the weather gets colder as the season progresses. A run heavy game makes a lot of sense if you’re going to play 3-5 games in cold weather. So the back end of the season reverse engineers the offense for the front end of the season even though that style makes no sense for that time period You do see B1G type offenses in the SEC but not at the top of the league (maybe to counter the talent disparity?) and I think that the Southeast climate supports a pass oriented style (or at least one that doesn’t treat passing as a second class citizen). The PAC was the same way and so is the Big XII. Both leagues play in climates that are usually pretty temperate for most of the year (I know Kansas/State and Iowa State can be exceptions but I think (a) not often enough and (b) not to the degree - no pun intended - it would allow them to go against the grain of the predominant style of the league) Or not.

I think the time zone disadvantage cuts both ways and this is especially pronounced for west coast teams going east for a 12:30 pm game. The body clock says 9:30 am and that’s not so easy. For any doubters out there, ask west coast NFL teams how they feel about the 1 pm est games. They don’t like them and there can be hits to performance which could make a difference in a high leverage game. If the B1G was in any way interested in being fair (and I think that standard goes out the window when money is also in the mix), teams going east would not have kickoffs past 4 or 5 and west coast teams earlier than 3:30.

Right now the B1G standings are a little crazy and there isn’t really a great mechanism for sorting it out because a number of the top teams don’t face each other. PSU is undefeated with really only one tough game ahead of them (OSU) and that’s at home. Indiana is undefeated with two tough games ahead of them (Michigan @ home, OSU on the road). OSU has three (PSU, Indiana, Michigan) The Ducks have two left (Illinois and Michigan @ Michigan). If OSU wins out and both PSU and Indiana only lose to OSU that’s 3 1-loss teams. If you add the Ducks to that list…how do the tie breakers work? Probably best to win out and not even face this question.

It’s Jeanty in first, second, and third place in the voting. He’s having a ridiculous season (averaging more than 200 yards on the ground per game!!!!) FWIW, makes the game he had against the Ducks less about the D and more about his talent.

It’s dangerous to read too much into this game in terms of room for improvement because a road game +3 hours on a short week after a big win is an atypical scenario. Two areas of concern: (1) Gabriel continues to throw ints on scoring drives late in the half. This can’t continue because it will bite them. Specifically, going up 24/28-0 at the half creates an entirely different game situation. The Ducks O stalled for 15 minutes and the game sat uncomfortably at a 3 score delta. If Purdue scores to make it 21-7 and the offense having lost its rhythm, the early season vibes rear their ugly head. IOW, Gabriel needs to be better at driving the first half dagger home. (2) The D struggled against the run. Part of that was facing a running QB they had zero film on and, to their credit, the DL got better at contain as the game went on. The poor tackling was a major factor which I’ll lump in here vs making it its own concern. Against Wisconsin and Michigan (maybe even Illinois) that becomes a real liability. Again, the result is what matters especially given the variables of the game. Hopefully the Illinois game shows improvement in these areas

This team is clearly mediocre with lots of areas that are underperforming. I don’t think that’s a controversial opinion nor a blinding insight. I don’t know what to think at the moment. They might be an example of a team that struggles early and gets better as the season progresses. Happens all the time in basketball where a team in is far scarier in March they were in November. With the playoffs this will happen with some team, I promise you (as will the reverse). Or this could just be a mediocre team that underperforms its talent all season At this point both seem to be viable outcomes

A few unrelated things/thoughts… First, for those hating on LA, with the kind of money these coaches make it can be a great place to live. I grew up there and detest the place but I’m also keenly aware of what kind of lifestyle that money can buy and why some would find it appealing Second, Chip was a little like Billy Beane in terms of innovation which is why they had success at first. What he did at Oregon was incredibly disruptive and gave the Ducks a huge edge. Billy Beane was an early pioneer of analytics which, like Kelly, gave him a massive advantage to help offset the small market (read: cheap) philosophy of the owner. Once everyone caught up to them that advantage disappeared. No doubt Chip is an offensive whiz but he no longer has the benefit of a disruptive system. He’s good of course but isn’t always better than really good DCs. Barring some massive new innovation like he had at Oregon, isn’t ever going to dominate like he once did when facing a team with relatively equal talent. That’s a large part of why he struggled schematically in the pros where talent gaps are far less pronounced and the quality of your scheme can have a massive impact So, Kelly should see a lot of success at OSU against most teams but less so with their peers. He’s definitely an upgrade at at OC but I don’t think he’s going to be this massive buzz saw that makes other teams’ defensive schemes obsolete.

Probably a way to say ‘see, we tried to include everyone but couldn’t come to a consensus’ when in 2 years they create a structure that cuts the little conferences out. Were I the Big2, I would push to do away with automatic bids all together. You think the B10 and SEC champs *aren’t* getting a bid? the G5 bid just steals one from a more deserving team so why enable that (I know it’s for anti-competitive optics but still). It also allows for the argument that the CFP is a meritocracy and not an exclusive monopoly by the power conferences The B12 would fight it of course but I like the 12 best philosophy.

I think this, on the whole, is a really positive development for the current state of CFB. No matter where you stand on unions, what is historically undeniable is that they create stability in the labor market which is exactly what is needed in CFB. Both the state of NIL (think of that poor kid with the UF group ghosting him or the general craziness created by an unregulated system awash in oodles of money) and the chaos of the transfer portal need to be tamed. A unionized player org across all of CFB or P4 or even P2 should usher in a degree of stability completely lacking in the status quo. Personally, I’m a fan of the university holding the NIL rights and any negotiations happening between the player and that institution. Get the shadow money out of the process (because it’s ripe for abuse as we’ve seen). I think that goes some way to solving the transfer portal but TBH I’m not so opinionated on a solution for that area.

@Nevada Dawg Totally! It’s why Jonathan Smith is a great coach. He develops his players to their maximum potential Like you, I’ve seen nothing to give me pause around DL and the staff’s ability to convert talent into results. The Ducks *have* improved y/y. This season should be telling as it’s year 3 and he’s got real talent on both sides of the ball. Their D should be nasty now that the secondary has some scary talent back there and the line is bigger, faster, and stronger (why yes, I use the Oxford comma). Next year will tell us a lot about the staff’s ability to develop a young QB (Moore). So a lot of information coming this season and next.

Bee’s Knees or, if A River Runs Through It is to be believed, that’s the berries! ’Fire’ is slightly passe. It was all the rage in 2019 but these days… I can go any number of ways and decades when expressing this sentiment in my everyday life but my go to is the full McConaughey: “right on, right on” (voice imitation is critical if ever used)

On the 19th On3 says Texas is the call. On the 23rd it’s Oregon. IOW, “I really have no meaningful insight into the young man’s decision or preference.” Or…how can I bid up my NIL like a boss? Love to have him (obviously) but it’s likely pointless getting too excited or worried at this point…unless it floats your boat in which case please continue 🙂

One, at least he’s honest (and given what he said at his UA intro press conference I suppose any other answer than the one he gave would be “yeah, sure Bub”) I also think his perspective is an interesting one as it relates to competing for the NC. There *are* 12-14 programs that are always in the mix and in many ways benefit from perception bias (e.g., Notre Dame) even if only at the margins. Once you are in that club, other than moving to another program in the club, why not stay? That isn’t to say UW is part of that club nor is it meant to exclude a sincere desire to rebuild a program that was once in the club but has fallen on hard times (like Florida). I don’t know that UW is in that club. I don’t even know if the Ducks are for that matter (at their current trajectory they will be soon if they aren’t already). What I do know, and what Fisch says, is that by virtue of being in the SEC or the B1G, if you aren’t in the group of 12-14 you are at least on a platform that makes it a lot easier to get into the PFC (vs the ACC or B12). Short thought long, it’s an interesting way to frame the issue.

All that matters is you finish at #11 or better (assuming G5 will take a slot while not being ranked in the top 12 which seems to be a safe bet) NGL, that’s going to be tough for the Ducks even though they likely will be a top 11 relative to all other teams in the playoff field (that is, ranking and actual quality may not be the same). I think they blitz UW (because beating the bag out of the Huskies feels like the right thing to do. That and the talent gap.). Assuming they hold serve everywhere else I think they are going to need to split the OSU/UM gauntlet. It’s a tough first year in the BIG for sure.

One, to date DeBoer hasn’t struck me as a great recruiter. That’s going to be death at Alabama. Yes, Bama has allure but with both NIL and the 12 team playoff, I would expect a greater deal of parity among programs as it relates to recruiting top players. A lack of recruiting chops is going to be a real disadvantage Two, how did the D coordinator job decision get made? I have to imagine it was part of the interview process (or it should have been). Succession planning had to have been decided prior to a hiring decision and contract signing (if not, that’s malpractice on the AD’s part). That would mean both DeBoer and the AD consciously let this happen. So, to echo @Nevada Dawg this would seem to be Harsin 2.0. The fact neither the AD or DeBoer could see that or anticipate or at minimum appreciate the downstream effects is mind boggling (and we know that because DeBoer immediately reversed course). Something tells me DeBoer’s questionable decision making isn’t limited to end of game situations in a National Semifinal game.

@Duckley Palace I saw an article on what Michigan might do with Moore and they cited ND as an example. It’s kind of a double bind when you think of it. Take Freeman. Popular with the players but unproven as a coach. The jury is still out on him (think of the game against OSU where they had 10 men on D for *the* critical play of the game not once but twice and after a time out. Yikes!) UM has spent years building to this point and while there will be a ton of turnover of the roster, the program is at its apex. So, do you take a risk with Moore because he’s popular with the players or do you go elsewhere, perhaps taking a run at KU’s coach? On the horns of a dilemma as it were. And if Harbaugh doesn’t leave this year it’s only a matter of time until he does. How many consecutive years can you interview for NFL jobs and not make it abundantly clear you are simply waiting for the right job?

This harkens back to a thread several months ago about DeBoer having a staff he had worked with for many years and how that was a big advantage over DL who was just standing up his organization. You have to love to see the bench and continuity

If OBD can get their secondary wired their D is going to be nasty. IMHO, the secondary has been the Achilles Heel of this team (from depth, experience and quality). Having two corners - with one being a lockdown - has to take pressure off the safeties and will allow the DL to get home and/or be stout against the run. That was why the Legion of Boom made the Seahawks’ D so formidable. Second, it’s great to see the ‘stability’ and ‘loyalty’ narrative start to take hold. The program has had a lot of HC churn and with DL making clear he is in it to win it over the long term, it will be interesting to see how that boosts recruiting even more. For example, how much of a factor did that play for Dante Moore? Development is a lot about having a consistent staff. IDK if it came up explicitly but I would be curious if it was an implied factor in the Ducks’ favor.

Oh…also cool to see the camaraderie between Dan and Kirby. Probably won’t be seeing that between Fisch and DL for no other reason than fan base revolt. 🙂

@amcdawg Here in Seattle we’ve had a stretch of high teens/low twenties but dry. Eugene (from what my aunt tells me) has fared far worse with snow and ice. Not too unusual for us in the PNW though definitely feel your pain. Fun science fact (or not based on what I’m about to write), you should expect more of that going forward because what’s happening is the jet stream is weakened (due to a warming planet) leading it to dip way South which allows all that wonderful Canadian weather to visit your doorstep. Totally counter intuitive but that’s the magic of our planet. Seattle goes into total panic mode and anarchy when it shows because we aren’t set up to handle it and the city is very hilly leading people to get snowed in. It’s a truly a thing of awe and humor to experience. Stay warm and safe!

I think this is a really good hire for the Huskies. Fisch can build a team. That much is clear. Whether he can sustain the degree of success he achieved last year is obviously TBD but there is no taking away that what he did in year 1 was very impressive. Zona was the 3rd best team in a conference that was loaded. The fact they were able to land someone like this during the worst period to hire a coach is amazing. Outside of KU's coach, this is probably the best possible outcome they could have expected. You have to give their AD a lot of credit for pulling UW's chestnuts out of the fire.

Wilcox to UW (and talking yourself into how it would be a good thing). That is EveRYthing

I’ve been consumed by a time sensitive situation and so have been oblivious to the outside world. On Thursday morning I did a quick scan and saw Pete was fired (a good thing I think) and read a cursory list of potential replacements. I have finally finished what I had been focused on to just now read DeBoer is going to Alabama (I didn’t even know Saban retired!) And I live in Seattle making my cluelessness all the more ridiculous Sometimes it’s good to be off the grid from time to time 🙂

While KD is far superior to Cristobal, that doesn’t justify giving him the benefit of the doubt as I’ve seen suggested in previous posts. In fact, it makes it worse. It wasn’t just one decision, it was a series of decisions starting with the 3rd down throw on the previous possession. It was clear they were playing for the FG as getting a two possession lead was the highest priority outcome. Yes, a TD would have been the best outcome but at minimum they needed TX to burn its second timeout. The time likely left after an onside recovery would enable kneeling down for the win. I am not a probability guru but I have to believe the win % was higher post FG and TX having one timeout left than the risk of TX scoring, recovering the onside, and then scoring again for the win. To then NOT kneel down post onside was insane. The risk of anything bad happening was astronomically lower than the path KD chose and that risk came to fruition. These aren’t heat of the moment mistakes and I can’t buy any argument that suggests grace for this reason. End of game scenarios and how to play them should be second nature and automatic for a coach of KD’s experience and skill. It was a colossal failure of decision making and by every right, comparison to Cristobal is both fair and warranted I should say that I like KD as a coach so the above isn’t meant to take anything away from him. It’s simply a willingness to judge his actions for what they were and what a coach of his caliber should be expected to do.