CalBear95

For those curious on the math, this the paper that started the whole perspective shift (Cal prof obvs) https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf

I was waiting for someone to write this article because analytics are a rorshach test in most cases and I was curious how it would play on this forum specifically the decision to go for it on 4th and 1 vs punting The 4th and 1 decision vs punting was 100% correct and I would hope DL decides to go for it every time he faces that situation. You might not have liked the play call but the decision was entirely correct Here is the key thing on analytics: in almost all cases a punt is a turnover (and therefore, almost always the wrong decision). You might think that’s crazy or that I am wrong but the math bears it out. This is by far the hardest thing for a lot of people to wrap their heads around because it runs counter to everything we ‘know’ about football strategy Going on 4th was the best decision because punting just gives the Dawgs a high probability of scoring but with no time left. Better to either keep the ball via conversion or let the Dawgs get their points but with time left on the clock for the Ducks to execute AND with perfect information on what was needed score wise I actually would have gone for the conversion to try and go up by 11. Be curious to see what the math says on that. DL and co have been too aggressive, for sure. No argument here. But I would rather have a coach who needs to dial it down while still embracing analytics than one who has to be coaxed to do so and thinks ‘pinning them inside the 20’ is ever a good strategy

As others have said, the SEC does this so they can have 8 league games and reduce the risk of a top team taking a loss in conference play. I would like to see some criteria for future selection (even in 12 team playoff) that says leagues with 8 conference games will be penalized relative to those w/9 as the latter involves more risk. The SEC will claim their 8 game set up is equivalent to 10 conference games anywhere else and since it’s the SEC that employs this practice there will be zero consequences for doing so. That said, I do hope SoS has a much higher weight going forward. For example, some Athletic writer was saying it’s unfair for Michigan to be punished for scheduling decisions made years ago. This take is wrong for the simple fact Michigan’s AD had total knowledge at the time those games were scheduled that SoS was a decision factor for the CFP. They consciously took the risk. So what would be unfair is to not saddle them with the consequences of a decision the AD had full knowledge could work against them

@cartm25 Let's dig a little deeper into that 2022 NFL 1st round draft cohort (all Defensive side of the ball). Following is a stack ranked list each player selected: Name/Position/pick #/recruiting class/rating. Keep in mind, Kirby's first year as coach was 2016 (hired December 2015) Travon Walker (EDGE) 1st - 2019, 5-star Jordan Davis (DL) - 13th - 2018, 3-star Quay Walker (LB) - 22nd - 2018, 4-star Devonte Wyatt (DT) - 28th - 2018, 4-star Lewis Cine (S) - 32nd - 2018, 4-star What should jump out at you right away is that only one of these players carried a vaunted 5-star rating. This list shows the value of development as well as fit for scheme versus a need for a ton of 5-star rated recruits. UGA's 'embarrassment of riches' was largely self-created. Also note the class is almost exclusively on the part of the D that creates pressure on the QB, something the Ducks sorely miss at present. This is what we need to keep an eye on. Can DL identify the right talent for his scheme and then develop those players to execute at an elite level. Smart's 2018 class was his 3rd recruiting year so hopefully year 2 under DL shows some progression from their current state.

Pete Carrol was (rightfully) dinged for this due to his inexplicable loyalty to Ed Norton Jr. My guess is that Lupoi gets a pass this season and maybe next. Georgia had a crazy elite defense last year. Recall, however, it was nasty in years prior and didn’t have 5 first round picks. The point being DL’s scheme requires a certain player type but they don’t need to be otherworldly Lupoi will need to show growth as a coach. Absent that, recruiting chops should be outweighed by execution for the simple fact that it doesn’t matter if you land elite players if you can’t utilize that talent on the field. We shall see. Hiring and firing is a very hard skill to master in any business

Going for it was the correct decision but the personnel was wrong. They weren’t going to stop the Huskies so punting delayed the inevitable What I do have issue with it was taking the FG with 4 and change left. If you will go for it on your 31, you should make the same decision at your 8 so to put the game away. I think the Ducks win out from here TBH. This is one of those games that is a really tough learning moment for DL and his staff. Rookie coaches carry risk and that was borne out on Saturday I’m OK with that process so long as he learns from it and it makes him and the team better But I kinda feel that after this kind of loss, the Ducks have no pressure of the CFP and should play loose against Utah, OSU and the PAC title game (which they will get to)

I just read about his snark. Love he doesn’t say that OSU and Michigan benefit by playing B1G teams when the conference is clearly awful this year. As Canzano notes, despite the rankings being in front of him, he is only going to see his priors (unless he thinks the rankings are wrong at which point I would just love to hear his thoughts on Bama, Clemson and ND) Regrettably, this guy goes a long way to shaping the national perception

The committee - while voting a lot on brand reputation vs actual performance (see Alabama, Clemson, USC, and ND) - is clearly signaling TN is in trouble. The Ducks SOS is only going up and TN’s down. If each wins out, the Ducks are ahead of TN (at either 3 or 4)

For those who saw the Crystal ball flip of Dante Moore (to MSU), it apparently rests on a perceived risk of DL leaving for Auburn as Moore has cited his relationship with both DL and Dilly for his commitment to Oregon If that is indeed correct then after today MSU is going to need some other angle to work as that answer from DL was about as unambiguous as it comes

Assuming the Ducks win the next 4 we need to jump to #3 so they don't catch UGA in the first round. One week at a time but, to me, they are 3, not 2, spots from where they need to be. If TCU loses the chaos will truly be unleashed because the committee is already a little sketchy about them and this past week's performance isn't going to help. If they lose, I think their CFP hopes are done and a ton of teams become viable for the #3 and #4 seeds

The problem is that his style of program no longer works in today’s game. He seems utterly incapable of evolving and/or recognizing he needs to adapt which, to me, says continual failure is a guaranteed outcome

The Ducks have a really hard path. Lossington and the Utes are going to be tough games. The Beavs will be a really hard road game. And then, assuming they go 3-0 they face a 1 loss USC or UCLA. They go 4-0 they deserve to be seriously considered for the CFP

The SEC is so hard to read this year because Alabama is an enigma. They barely beat TX in Austin even though they faced a second string QB and TX has been inconsistent after that game. They lose to TN on the road because of bad clock management by Saban. TN mauls LSU at LSU. LSU then beats the Tide at home in OT. So, that suggests a lot of parity. The question is whether these are all dominant teams that all deserve top 10 rankings or being spread out across the top 15. I have zero idea. That’s why the CFP rankings are a total crapshoot

LSU controls its own destiny in the West. If they win out then assuming UGA does the same those two will meet in the championship game. Mississippi needs to beat Alabama and for LSU to stumble

The B12 is hard to read this year. Ok St looks like world beaters and have flopped. Same with KS. TX is inconsistent. TCU isn’t blowing through the league. A lot of parity at the top. Long way of saying TCU is a tough read

I also hope the conference stays together and can earn enough to be highly competitive. The CFP expansion will help a lot in this regard. The PAC is harmed by its time zone, not the quality of play per se. Our prime time is bed time for ~65% of the country. I do hope UCLA is forced to stay but I am not hopeful that will happen. If not, Oregon and the PAC are going to want to aggressively schedule (and win) home/home against the EST teams to increase their visibility

Well, that’s entirely up to the B1G and it seems pretty clear they don’t want their fingerprints on the metaphorical knife that kills the conference. At this juncture the four corner schools are the glue holding the conference together. If for some reason they decide life would be better in the B12 then that is likely when an Oregon move happens because the B1G can pose as a rescuer. But not until then (or some future date when the B1G is less worried about being seen as killing off another conference) Oregon is staying put.

My hope is that this freewheeling spending by a booster with so much money it doesn’t matter to them they spend to land recruits is enough to get the power schools in the SEC and B1G to the point that even they can’t stand the craziness and so conclude reigning in NIL is very much in their interests. For better or worse, it’s the B1G and SEC’s world and we’re just living in it. Only way peace spreads across the land is if they will it into being

Husky fans on Twitter saying DL is as good as gone. He hasn’t even taken them out to the woodshed yet and they already suffer from the trauma. Wishing he will go won’t make it so. For those who might be nervous here, don’t be. Last year it was clear the Auburn job was going to come open in 2022 so if DL wanted that role he would not have left UGA for Oregon. He’s not going anywhere (other than perhaps into a new tax bracket)

As I wrote at the time of the search, no other program with an opening was even considering Wilcox. That should tell you one of two things: he’s either a really mediocre to bad coach or you are seeing something that eludes everyone else. The fact Mullens threw himself at Wilcox multiple times in a fit of desperation was (and remains) alarming. Wilcox likes to hide behind the built in excuses at Cal because he is, at best, a mediocre coach. He should never have been on the list and only was because some ex-players and boosters were panicked about another coach leaving and so convinced themselves the answer was “an Oregon man.” The Ducks dodged a huge bullet.

I wasn’t able to catch a lot of the game but what I did see was definitely not as sharp as the week prior. That said, I don’t feel they played down to the level of the competition. While there was likely a drop in focus after such a huge game, they were never really in risk of losing. The same could not be said of last year’s team who would probably have lost It is nigh impossible to play at the level they did against UCLA week in and week out. So if is their “let down” mode, this team is going to be just fine.

IDK how this ends. I do think the fate of the conference sits in the hands of the four corner schools. Yes, of course the payout per school is a critical baseline. I think the question comes down to (1) how much revenue in any P12 deal comes from streaming only platforms and (2) whether the B12 deal has an escalating payout if that league expands. If (2) is “no” then I see no way any P12 school defects to the B12 If (2) is “yes” and the new P12 deal has a decent slate of valuable inventory consigned to its streaming partner(s) it might force the corner schools to decide how much risk they want to take. At the end of the day, even if you make more than your B12 peers but nobody really watches your games, you aren’t really coming out ahead. As they say, out of sight, out of mind.. I don’t really know enough about the growth projections for streaming audiences vs linear TV and am pretty certain the P12 team has a ton of people on staff who do. But your future (giving it exclusivity for your rights for some extended period of time) to a conference so desperate that is seriously having to take the risk (when you can always wait and see from the vantage of your new conference who will happily jump on the new trend after your old conference took all the risk to validate it) a really tall Absent linear media revenue and inventory guarantees that that are equal to the B12, the move I would make - assuming the answer to (2) is “yes” - is to defect and collapse the P12. Streaming inventory isn’t a concept that is going anywhere so why risk oblivion if it doesn’t turn out to be a difference maker?

Dawgs. Far more brand equity and so that carries a ton of weight with those who don’t pay a ton of attention to the conference but have a real impact on shaping the narrative of P5 pecking order. Utah has already broken through. Shaw is a total choker in games not against the Ducks and especially outside the conference so no Furd for me. That leaves OSU because it makes late season football a must watch for the country and props up playoff rankings for OBD when they win.

@HappyToBeADuckMy point wasn’t that nothing is happening - assuredly there is - but as @Charles Fischermentioned earlier, the streaming aspects are complicated and take time. The relatively frequent updates just aren’t all that useful because that time scale is completely out of phase with the cadence of those business conversations. That is what I meant by my point about these ‘updates’ being of low value. That will change once we have something substantive to react to from those discussions or from others such as those being led by the B12.

I too was pleasantly surprised to see UO/UCLA take the lion’s share of eyeballs. I really think a good chunk people just want to watch good football games regardless of conference. And I think that is also a sign that we shouldn’t be afraid to try to own the 1pm PST slot instead of the 7:30 window. It occurred to me yesterday that my disbelief that the media markets on the west coast aren’t valuable unless they are used to fill the late window was underpinned by my conflating economic power with raw population. The west coast is far and away the biggest economic engine in the US followed by the east coast (largely due to NYC). But we don’t have huge population areas outside of LA. Kinda hard to wrap the mind around As to streaming I was curious as to others’ experience on this. We cut the cord recently and use Hulu++ (comes with ESPN premium and conference networks). We also have Prime and Apple+. I get confused when people scoff at online as some unreliable or crazy platform. After all, Netflix is a heavily used service and it is in no way different than Hulu++ or Apple+ So, I love the ease of switching from game to game as well has having a ton of games to choose from Anyone here also cut the cord or are skeptical of streaming?