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noDucknewby
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Posts posted by noDucknewby
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One thing life has taught me (yeah I'm old) is that wanting something in itself, no matter badly, just doesn't make it so. I want the Pac? to survive, but even if it does it won't ever be the same again. This year will be the conference's swan song and ironically this is the best the conference has looked in a decade. I'll just enjoy it one last time and hope USC and Colorado get the send-off they deserve in Autzen.
Granted we don't know the final details of what the new media offer will be, but all indications are that our ceiling (not floor!) is what the B12 already has. Polish this turd all you want, it appears that we will finish this round of media deals in solid last place. Can GK pull a rabbit out of the hat? Will a last-minute savior swoop in with a new offer? We can wish all we want, but at some point reality has to set in.
Arizona/ASU/Utah would be fools not to bail to the B12. Geography and culture works better for them and from a B12 perspective they'd be at 16 teams approaching super conference status. This is a win/win for all parties involved and seems inevitable to me.
So where does that leave OBD? We could probably limp through until the next media round with a Pac/MWC hybrid conference but we'd no longer be in a power conference, not even second-tier like the B12 or ACC. Our brand is strong, the conference not-so-much and really we need both to compete for playoff spots.
Beg, borrow, steal, do whatever it takes to get into the B1G or risk dwindling into irrelevance. I don't like it but I just don't see how we get what we've been striving for all these years by staying in the Pac.
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On 6/20/2023 at 5:02 PM, David Marsh said:
If they want to...
Mentioned on another thread today is that many of the higher ups in the B1G don't like the prospect of regularly traveling to the west coast.
Ohio State cancelled their ooc with Washington to avoid the expense.
Traveling to southern California once every couple years is one thing... It's nice there and is in the middle of a recruiting hot bed.
But what about the perspect of traveling to the PNW in October? Sure it's warmer than the midwest ... But it's rainy and from a recruiting stand point it isn't worth their while.
I could see resistance to adding more west coast schools. The current B1G members probably don't care about the LA schools' burden of travel but they'll care about their own and simply put... More west coast schools will mean more frequent trips.
David I read your article about Pac-12 survival strategy and while I agree with your strategic analysis, I think it is most likely wishful thinking. I just don't envision the LA schools (or just UCLA) taking a huge pay cut to reduce travel time and related expenses to return to the Pac-12. To my mind, it is more likely that the B1G will do whatever it needs to do to keep them there and the best way to do that is add more west coast schools to ease travel issues.
Hypothetically, if they add Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford and create a west coast pod that plays each other every year, that accounts for 5 conference games. Throw in 2 home and 2 away games with the rest of the conference and that becomes very manageable. Under this scenario there would be a total of 12 away games on the west coast for the rest of the conference to split up, which seems very doable.
Would the B1G want Cal and Stanford? That's anybody's guess at this point, but I don't think they would give up either of the LA schools without a fight and let's face it we're badly outgunned here.
Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for the Pac and I hope you're right but the B1G and the SEC are holding all the cards and all I see is the rich getting richer.
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Ok I'll state the obvious, if this new TV deal gets done the existing members will be signing away their GOR for the next 4-5 years. How is it possible that two years into a new 4-5 year deal the conference collapses? There's more of a chance the conference doesn't survive the summer.
The next contract cycle is an entirely different debate and it certainly seems likely that the B1G will take another bite out of the P12 at that time. The LA schools aren't coming back and I agree with others that the P12 only survives as a power conference as long as the B1G/SEC allow it to.
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On 5/25/2023 at 8:18 AM, Rufus said:
Wonder if there is any truth to this?
SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 9h
BREAKING: Every school in the #Pac12 was made aware on Monday that their Final TV package will be roughly $20M per team, which is far below the #Big12 and $5M below the minimum number that most of the P12 teams wanted to stay. But WAIT...there's more. (1/2)
SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 9h
(2/2) The #B1G will take in the #Ducks and #UDub if any of the #Pac12 schools leave for the #Big12. I can neither confirm or deny that they'll take #Stanford and the #CalBears, but certainly checkibg.Hard to say how much validity this has, but it does not seem beyond the realm of possibility.
$20 million/year is not enough to keep the P12 together. Maybe with a very short-term contract and uneven revenue sharing this might work for one contract cycle, but it would be the beginning of the end.
That said, I just don't see how the demise of the P12 would benefit ESPN. Do they really want to go all-in on the MWC for the west coast evening slots? Unless they're throwing in the towel, I just don't see them ceding the entire west coast to Fox.
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By my calendar today is May 15. The new B1G commsioner starts his job July 1. Our new University President from the B1G is already on the job. There are no apparent positive developments in the P12 TV deal. That doesn't mean they're not on the horizon, but we've been hearing that a deal is close for most of a year now and still nothing definitive has surfaced.
IMHO July 1 is a critical date. If we're still having these conversations then, my $ is on someone bailing and the conference imploding.
Personally I hope the conference survives this round and the LA schools get stuck with horrible travel schedules, but that may just be wishful thinking. I just don't see any positve movement in the TV deal going forward, hope I'm wrong though.
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On 5/11/2023 at 9:58 AM, Rufus said:
I don’t think staying in the PAC is viable unless we have no choice.
Here are my concerns:
1. The B1G just announced conference teams are now no longer required to play P5 non-conference games. Combine this with the fact that west coast recruiting is already covered with away games at USC and UCLA, it’s a safe bet few - if any - B1G teams will want to schedule Oregon. The SEC is likely expanding to a 9 game schedule and several schools already have a rivalry game with an ACC school. It’s a safe bet few - if any - SEC schools will want to schedule Oregon in a non-conference game.
2. Replacing USC and UCLA with G5 schools will weaken the perception of the PAC 12. Having few - if any - B1G or SEC teams interested in a non-conference game with the Ducks will weaken the perception of the total schedule. Very few at large CFP bids will come from the PAC.
3. The PAC 12 Champion is only guaranteed a spot in the CFP for two years. There is nothing to say the rules won’t change to benefit the B1G and SEC. I can see the P2 making deals with G5 conferences to pay them X amount of dollars for regular season away games in return for agreeing to whatever the B1G and SEC want to see happen to the CFP after the first two years.
4. The SEC and B1G will figure out how to monopolize NIL deals with the major sponsors. “Hey Fortune 500 companies, you want to brand yourself nationwide in college football? Ok, sign this exclusive NIL agreement with the B1G. You can decide which players you want to work with on this, but they must come from our conference.”
5. The B1G and SEC will become larger and more powerful when they raid the top brands and markets in the ACC. Even if Oregon sticks it out in the P12, we will fall further behind from this fact alone.
The good news in all of this is that Oregon is the 7th largest fan base in college football. The B1G is very likely to add us at some point. This does not end well if any other scenario plays out.
Spot on IMHO. I'd also add that teams outside the Power 2 may have a hard time hanging on to successful coaches when the new TV $ starts rolling in. Assuming Lanning is our guy, what happens when Purdue or Northwestern offers him $15-$20 million? This may seem far-fetched, but brace yourselves for a new round of inflation in coaches' salaries. I've said all along that eventually the money gap becomes a talent gap.
Personally I'm really hoping that the P12 stays together for this TV contract, adds a couple of members and let's the dust settle. We'll know a lot more about the CFP and the college football environment the next time around.
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I'm very encouraged about our defense, not so much about our QB play. Bo was pretty mediocre, but he always seems to rise to the occasion when needed and he just doesn't get rattled. Sorry, TT just does not instill confidence I'm really not seeing anything new here and Novosad looked liked a boy among men (huge caveat here, he should still be in high school). The other caveat on the QB play is that they were under pretty much constant pressure, hats off to the defensive line in particular they were getting pressure without blitzing for the most part.
The lack of a running game isn't that concering to me. Is it from a superior defensive line performance or an inferior offensive line performance? Probably a bit of both, but I feel pretty confident in both these position groups when we get our best players all on one side of ball.
We have legitimate deep threat receivers, and please just get Tez the ball in the open field, he'll do the rest!
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Well there's smoke for sure. There's a new UO president from the B1G, the P12 TV deal is dragging on and now the B1G has a new commissioner in place who may be anxious to make his mark. I don't see how any of those factors are favorable for P12 cohesion.
GK and the remaining 10's apparent "patience" and "unity" seem pretty hollow to me. Do I agree with the author of this post and his "sources"? Call me skeptical, but the longer this thing drags on the greater one or more of the remaining 10 members gets nervous and bolts, especially if the B1G or B12 decide to be more aggressive and sweeten the deal.
Each day with no TV deal tips the scale a little more IMHO.
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Personally I'm not thrilled about this one, this is one of the major differences between college and the NFL and I would still like the college game to be different. If they really want to shorten the game, then they should get rid of all the ridiculous booth reviews in favor of a challenge system, or perhaps let's get rid of those annoying 3.5 minute TV timeouts. Yeah I know that would cost the networks $ boo hoo.
The one rule I would like to see changed is the knee down rule. It's always seemed stupid to me that if a player goes down without contact that he can't get up and run. That's not a tackle!
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Not even clicking anything from CBS/Dennis Dodd. They've been beating the drum for the P12 demise for months now.
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Gotta admit I'm torn on this one. We bail and the P12 ceases to exist or becomes the new MW. It would also ease the travel burden on the LA schools and that frosts me, especially when they are full members and we wouldn't be, kind of looking like a little brother thing. That said we would get financial security and membership in a conference that's locked in. I agree the number needs to be substantially more than what GK can come up with, but that seems a given at this point. Of course full membership in a reasonable time frame is imperative.
I've always felt that the B1G and SEC are each going to wind up with 3-4 teams in the 12-team playoff, so I'm not convinced it's going to be much harder to get to the playoff, just as an automatic bid. I've also felt that eventually the money gap if we stay in the P12 becomes a talent gap and we may find ourselves regularly getting blown out in the first round of the playoff. I have faith in the AD and coaching staff, but I just don't think you beat the bottom line long-term when competing against the Power 2. Sure we could afford to pay DL $10 million if he gets us a championship, but who's to say one of the Power 2 wouldn't offer him twice that. Coaching salaries are only going up after the new TV deals kick in.
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Probably should have been more descriptive in my initial post, just wanted to get the "scoop" ha ha.
What I find interesting is that our new president is a Big Ten guy. Not saying that in itself means anything, but I do find it quite interesting.
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From my Inbox today:
Dear University of Oregon community members,
I am thrilled and honored to announce that the UO Board of Trustees has named John Karl Scholz as the 19th president of the University of Oregon. He will begin his appointment on July 1, 2023.
Karl Scholz is a distinguished economist, professor, and current provost at the University of Wisconsin at Madison. He is an inspiring leader with passion for public higher education. Scholz is deeply committed to the success of students, to the university’s research and liberal arts roots, and its focus on creating societal impact. Incoming President Scholz possesses all the qualities necessary to take the University of Oregon into its next ambitious era.
I invite you to tune in to the livestream announcement this morning as we introduce and hear from Incoming President Karl Scholz. Please join us at 11:10 a.m. by visiting this website where you can also read more about the selection.
The trustees unanimously selected Scholz following a six-month international search process conducted by a 22-member presidential search committee comprised of trustees, students, faculty, staff, and academic and administrative leaders, as well as representatives from higher education and the external community.
The presidential search committee members and trustees were impressed by Scholz’s depth of experience as provost and dean of the College of Letters & Science — a college the size of the UO. They appreciated his approachability, commitment to fostering diversity and inclusion, and immense care for students and their success. Scholz personified the qualities that members of the UO community said they valued and hoped to see in the next president.
In addition to being an experienced higher education leader, Scholz is a leading economist, national thought leader, and professor whose economics expertise is in household savings, low-wage labor markets, financial barriers to higher education, and bankruptcy laws. He served in two presidential administrations, working in both the U.S. Treasury Department and the Council of Economic Advisors.
Scholz has been provost at University of Wisconsin-Madison since August of 2019. Prior to that he served for six years as the dean of the College of Letters & Science. He was also the Nellie June Gray Professor of Economic Policy in the department of economics and served as the director of UW–Madison’s Institute for Research on Poverty for four years.
Scholz joined the UW–Madison Economics Department in 1988. From 1990 to 1991 he was a senior staff economist at the Council of Economic Advisors and from 1997 to 1998 he served as deputy assistant secretary for tax analysis at the U.S. Treasury Department.
A native of Nebraska, Scholz graduated from Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota, and earned his doctorate from Stanford University. Scholz is married to Melissa Scholz, an attorney focused on non-profit law. They have three daughters, one of whom is currently a PhD student at the University of Oregon.
I want to thank Patrick Phillips for his leadership as interim president since August 2022 following the departure of former president Michael Schill to take the president’s role at Northwestern University. We could not have asked for a better leader to step into this role for the past six months. Patrick has played a central role in the development of the UO over the last decade, especially in fostering a strategic vision of a university fully committed to its public purpose. We are grateful for his devotion to the University of Oregon.
Phillips will return to the UO faculty and continue to lead his biology lab. The board will vote Tuesday and is expected to name current Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Jamie Moffitt as the interim president until Scholz arrives on July 1.
I want to thank the presidential search committee members for their thoughtful, discerning, and incredible commitment to this process, as well as the many university and community members who provided input during the process.
We are entering an exciting era with an outstanding new leader. Please join me in offering a warm and enthusiastic welcome to Incoming President Karl Scholz.
Sincerely,
Ginevra Ralph
UO Board of Trustees Board Chair-
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Agree about the night games, I don't much care for them but I guess that's our conference niche so that's how it goes.
What I will say is that winning will reduce our night game appearances, especially with the LA traitors headed east. Assuming ESPN gets the linear rights to the P12, they are not going to cede prime kickoff times to Fox to televise USC and UCLA on the west coast without any competition. We win the big games, keep national interest high and we get the best TV times. We can at least control that.
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On 3/3/2023 at 3:32 PM, McDuck said:
I stopped at based on sources close to Dennis Dodd. I generally don't subscribe to the 'media bias' horse pucky but I'm starting to make an exception for CBS, Mr. Dodd and the Big 10. They have beaten the Pac-12 is doomed drum relentlessly.
Remember CBS will profit handsomely from their B1G contract but they would do even better without the Pac. Guessing the sports arm has more editorial discretion than the actual news division.
Couldn't agree more. CBS/Dodd have been aggressively promoting the demise of the P12. I basically consume every clickbait I can find right now, but NOT from CBS.
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On 3/2/2023 at 10:05 AM, Jon Joseph said:
CFB starting with BCS and then the playoff (soon to expand for more $) has been fully monetized. No wonder certain schools, FSU and Clemson for example, are asking for a bigger slice of the pie in a capitalized sport that distributes income to conference members in an "equal" manner.
If Wake Forest was to receive a lesser cut than Clemson and FSU where is it going to go to make more money?
I think we will see more FSU-Clemson demands as the B1G and the SEC continue to distance themselves financially from the P3. I don't like it but money rules the roost today in CFB and CBB.
Yes this is obviously where it's headed and if Oregon and Washington aren't playing this card I'd be amazed (although many P12 decisions are head-scratchers I must admit). If we're headed down this road (and I believe we are) then my preference would be for performance based payouts rather than the usual beauty contest criteria used by the media. The cream will rise to the top anyway and if one of the bottom tier teams puts together a playoff run, well good for them and they should be compensated.
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On 3/1/2023 at 9:22 AM, David Marsh said:
I would assume that part of the negotiations with these streaming companies will include the current production of the Pac-12 Network. The Pac-12 network isn't perfect but their production has been pretty good and their commentators do actually seem to know who the players are which is a big bonus. I will say this about the Pac-12 production, if it was just about production value I'd take an end of the day game with the Pac-12 network over ESPN or FS1 which both typically give poor production value at the end of the day.
The other big thing at play here is that college football has a bigger following and is worth way more money so the production value will need to be better than MLS which is growing but doesn't have the following at all. So I would think if the Pac-12 network is picked up by Apple or Amazon that it would have the current level of production which is pretty good on the whole.
Totally agree here, David. The problem with the Pac-12 Network has been distribution, not production quality. The resolution of their broadcast is much better than any of the ESPN/Fox feeds except for their showcase games. Night games on the Pac-12 Network are vastly superior and their commentators are much more knowledgeable about the conference.
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On 2/28/2023 at 12:39 PM, Santa Rosa Duck said:
I like the idea of Oregon tied in with Apple. Incredible company who will find the way to expand the subscriber base for Pac 12 sports. Could incredible Apple create a tie in with incredible Nike and create something really desirable? One can wish. I stream Apple at home and the content is excellent as well as the quality. More and more 4K product is being delivered but you will have to have high speed streaming to enjoy 4K.
Thank you Darren, good food for thought.
Great point about 4K I haven't heard discussed much. Linear 4K content is almost non-existent, while it is readily available with streaming. A 4K action/adventure movie with Vision and Dolby Atmos is amazing on a decent home theatre setup. I would LOVE to have that option for Duck games.
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How dare you inject a bit of positivity into my off-season nihilism!
Seriously good points all, however I would disagree on the sense of urgency. If the B1G gets a new commissioner prior to the TV deal being finalized, then their realignment "lull" could go by the wayside. Until the GOR is signed there is little stability or unity regardless of affirming statements by conference. You can bet that every AD is working on an exit strategy, and if not then they're not doing their job.
That said, my life philosophy has always been to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. That certainly applies in this case.
On another note, I'm not thrilled about Apple TV primarily because it's another subscription I'd have to pay for. I already have Amazon Prime, so that would be my choice for streaming, but that is from my selfish perspective. It's hard to argue with the numbers, there are a lot of iPhones out there.
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On 2/24/2023 at 1:05 PM, Kurt Rambis said:
Part of the problem with knowing who to believe in today's world is that the media is incredibly fragmented. Used to be UPI, AP, SI, Sporting News, and a few others were the (fairly) trusted sources for what was going on in sports. Today, anyone with an Internet connection is a "journalist." All they have to do is say "I'm hearing..." or "Sources say..." and we have no way to know whether this is the scoop of the century or some clown pulling things out of his tailpipe.
There are advantages to the new media world - but also some serious disadvantages. While I appreciate the posting of the article, I'll reserve worry/celebration/other reaction for when we actually know what's happening.
And even then, it'll only be temporary until the next round of media rights negotiations, restructuring, conference poaching, NIL changes...
Completely agree with your take on "sources". That said, the argument he's laid out here makes sense. Once they have USC/UCLA in the fold they'll do everything they can to hang on to them. Assuming the P12 survives this media contract, it could have potentially bought enough time to work it's way back into relevance with the expanded playoff and by adding new teams. That leaves the door open for USC/UCLA to come home during the next contract cycle and you can damn well be sure they would be welcomed with open arms, regardless of their betrayal.
Despite their academic posturing, the last thing the B1G wants is a strong and relevant P12. I'll say it again, the first domino falls and the flood gates open. There's no way the B1G lets Oregon/Washington go to the B12. If they wind up with Cal/Stanford that's just icing on the cake.
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Best case for us we go to the B1G. I don't like it, but for long-term stability and access to the CFP I still think it's our best option.
Worst case would be an Apple TV all streaming deal. I'm on board with some streaming, preferably Amazon but Apple TV? That may work for millennnial hipsters watching futbol, it'd be a deathblow for P12 football.
An acceptable scenario would be a short-term TV deal somewhere around what the B12 is getting, mostly linear, some streaming, perhaps 50/50.
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On 2/23/2023 at 10:20 AM, duckoflife said:
You're assuming that the Big 10 is actually willing to admit us, even at 1/2 shares or whatever.
It seems like the Big 10 doesn't want to invite Oregon or Washington. I can't figure out the logic of how a conference would be willing to invite Maryland and Rutgers, but wouldn't be willing to invite Oregon and Washington. But it seems like that's seriously what's going to happen.
Maryland and Rutgers were added in 2014 and their addition was all about getting the NY and DC markets. Much has changed since then, I doubt they'd get the same consideration right now and that may be true of Nebraska as well. Whether or not Oregon-Washington pencils out for the B1G members, it seems there was a real push-back from the university presidents not wanting to be responsible for the death of the P12. That may be naive on their part, the conference death blow may have already been dealt with the departure of the LA schools.
If and when the first domino falls, I'm betting the B1G changes their stance about Oregon-Washington. If any of the four corners schools bails and Oregon-Washington are still up for grabs then I think the B1G would much rather take them than see them go to the B12.
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Clearly Uncle Phil needs to buy ESPN and the Pac-12 Network and let's just be done with this nonsense!
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I've been a hunter since I took my Hunter's Safety Class at 15. When I was in college and lived on campus my firearms stayed at my parents house, when I moved off-campus they came with me.
My point being that having a firearm at an off-campus apartment is not illegal. That said I was not a member of the football team where a different set of rules apply. Just because there are no criminal charges against TH does not completely exculpate him from disciplinary action. Cheating on a final exam is not a crime but can still get you expelled or kicked off the football team.
I don't know the specifics of the Code of Conduct for the football team, but if TH didn't violate them then he should be reinstated.
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Apple Emerging as Media Partner for Pac-12 - Primarily Streaming
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
You may be right, but do we really want to wait 4-5 years for that to happen and risk irrelevancy in the meantime?
The power brokers for the CFP are ESPN/Fox and the B1G/SEC. How is Apple going to help us there? Are we going to see Duck highlights from Apple TV on Sports Center?