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noDucknewby
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Posts posted by noDucknewby
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One game at a time, take care of our business and good things will happen.
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Pains me to root for the Domers, but Clemson is toast.
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On 11/3/2022 at 9:19 AM, David Marsh said:
Oregon has the money to pay a coach who is worth it but that price tag does come with a level of loyalty to the program as well. I don't think Mullens and Knight want to get into a bidding war to hold onto a coach.
Yes, I think this is the crux of the biscuit. After being leveraged by Taggart and snubbed by MC, loyalty will certainly be rewarded. The more successful DL becomes, the more offers he's going to get, that's just the nature of the business. That said no one's making a serious run at Saban or Smart or Whittingham for that matter, so if DL continues to say "pass, not interested" he could indeed be our guy.
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On 11/2/2022 at 9:35 PM, Mic said:
For those who like conspiracies, here's one:
A 1-loss Oregon winning the Pac-12 Championship and finishing 12-1 gets left out (they'll use that 1st game against us).
A 1-loss USC winning the Pac-12 Championship and finishing 12-1 gets put in IF there are 2 other 1-loss teams.
In fact, I'd be willing to bet a dollar-to-a-donut a 12-1 USC would trump TCU, maybe even Clemson simply because the CFB has been wanting to get USC back in the picture for a long time now. They'd really love to have USC and/or ND in it together, but ND didn't cooperate with the program this year.
How's that for conspiracies?
Not all that far-fetched IMHO. The networks love blue bloods and to think they don't have a huge influence is just naive.
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I think we all crave a return to the continuity we had during the Brooks/Bellotti years, but I'm not sure that's realistic given the ridiculous amount of money being thrown around.
Yeah it sucks to have the national perception of Oregon being a "stepping stone" program and what we're really looking for is the best fit for Oregon, a combination of recruting, on-the-field performance and loyalty to the program. Granted that's a bit of a tall order, but I feel if we find that person then money won't be an issue because Mullens and Phil will probably come up with it.
Is Lanning that guy? So far he seems to check all the boxes, but we all remember MC's "kicking and screaming" comments.
A potential problem I see is that Mullens generally takes a graded, progressive approach to rewarding coaches financially. That could potentially make us vulnerable if a desperate school from the B1G or SEC comes in and waves $10 million/10 years at him. Are we willing to match? Good example with Mel Tucker, they may wind up buying him out soon.
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On 11/2/2022 at 1:03 PM, kirklandduck said:
I'm not adverse to the smaller size of their stadium, that can easily be made up by the enthusiasm of the fan base. According to the article, that enthusiasm seems to be coming in spades. I'd rather have a smaller venue jam-packed with a raucous crowd than the tumble-weed infested lands that inhabit the Rose Bowl when UCLA plays their home games...
Yeah that. Let them worry about ticket revenues, it's the TV money that counts and I agree that the LA schools rarely sell out, especially UCLA. It's embarassing when they have to block out sections with team graphics and the TV cameras are afraid to pan out.
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On 11/2/2022 at 10:01 AM, Mic said:
It's going to come down to the "four best no-loss & 1-loss teams" ... unless the powers to be want to let TCU into the hallowed club of Playoff Teams. I'm not sure they're ready to do that. How they determine (select) the best 1-loss teams is anyones wild guess. Branding, I suspect.
Yep the old "eye test" which is code for whomever the powers that be want.
I hope I'm wrong, but the Pac-12 is screwed unless TCU loses. Let's assume Clemson wins out, they aren't playing a ranked team the rest of the year. Either tOSU or Michigan goes undefeated, there's no real serious challenger outside of those two (yeah maybe Illinois, but not likely IMHO). If we have three undefeated conference champs (B12, ACC and B1G) they have to go and you know damn well the SEC champ is going unless maybe they have two losses (which I also think is unlikely).
On our end we have to have a 12-1 champ that wins in impressive fashion. Sure there's a chance, but it's unlikely we control our own destiny.
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Agree LSU way too high. No way they should be ranked over UCLA.
Tennessee/Georgia huge this week, but I doubt we move up either way especially if Georgia loses there's no way we leap frog them after our ugly loss.
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Never ever ever ever ever pulling for the Fuskies.
Go Little Bro!
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Three tough games to finish the regular season, two at home, all winnable and all losable. Then maybe the conference championship game against USC or UCLA. Plenty of season still left, it's crunch time.
We have no margin for error to reach the playoff and even if we win out we would still probably need a little help. It's looking like there may be several 1-loss teams when the dust settles.
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Bill Walton loves the Pac-12 and the west coast. Yes his diatribes are sometimes rambling and esoteric, but he is a real gem both athletically and culturally.
I'm not sure his opinion changes anything, but you've got to give him credit for trying.
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Too bad it didn't work out for him, I wouldn't think his situation was bad enough to make him quit the team mid-season, but I don't know the details so i don't judge.
I was hoping the new transfer window rules would eliminate or reduce mid-season departures, but so far that doesn't seem to be the case.
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Harsin was just a bad fit from day one, never did understand the hire.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him land at ASU or maybe even Colorado.
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Oh yeah it's a ridiculous system alright.
Imagine this scenario:
1. Tennessee beats Georgia next weekend and wins the SEC East. Georgia then runs the table and finishes 11-1.
2. A 1-loss Alabama beats Tennessee in the SEC Championship game.
3. Either tOSU or Michigan goes undefeated as conference champ. The other finishes 11-1.
4. Oregon or USC runs the table so we have a 1-loss Pac-12 champ.
5. Clemson goes undefeated winning the ACC.
6. TCU goes undefeated and wins the Big-12.
OK that's a lot of ifs, and pretty unlikely to happen but in this scenario you would have to seed the 3 unbeaten conference teams and the SEC champs Alabama. That leaves Tennessee out even though they went 1-1 with Alabama and beat Georgia.
Defending national champ Georgia at 11-1 is out.
The 1-loss Pac-12 champ is out.
A 1-loss Big-10 runner up is out.
What a mess. The expanded playoff can't happen soon enough.
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The Cal game on the road had all the makings of a letdown game after a huge home win against UCLA. I'm not surprised at all that we were a little flat, but Cal games are always ugly. They have a solid defense, so even when their offense stinks (which it usually does), they manage to keep it close. Sure we didn't play our best game, but it was a 3-score road win against a team we historically struggle with.
Progress is rarely linear. I would expect us to beat Colorado handily, the we come back to Autzen and the November stretch that will define our season. I guess we'll see soon enough, but I think we see continued improvement (especially on defense).
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Boo hoo Lincoln Riley and welcome to the Pac-12, at least for now. Complaining about the refs here is like complaining about the wind on the coast.
That said, every Pac-12 team has been the victim of an officiating blunder at one time or another, some costing the team a win (Ducks/Stanford 2021).
Agree with JC, just fix it. We need full-time, professional refs. Pay them well and hold them accountable. It just blows me away that with all the TV and NIL money flowing freely we don't funnel a few extra bucks into the officiating.
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In short, no.
The defending national champs from the SEC will get a pass for pretty much any one loss with or without an SEC championship. Remember Alabama not even winning their division and still going to the CFP as a 1-loss team?
For Georgia, undefeated they're in, one loss they're in, two losses they're out. Whatever Oregon does from here on out is irrelevant.
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Looks to me like our best case is still less than half what the B1G is getting per team.
If I'm Mullens I'm looking for a short-term contract with an escape clause. IMHO the B12 has set the bar pretty low, thanks for that.
Still don't like it, but if the B1G calls we have to go. That kind of income disparity is not sustainable.
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Count me as one of the skeptics when Bo transferred, I just didn't see him as substantially better than AB (nothing against AB). As usual though I was cautiously optimistic and a maybe little caught up in the honeymoon period of a new coaching staff.
One of the reasons we love college football is that it is so damn unpredictable and guess what coaches really do matter. The problem with Mario's status quo for me was that I just started to expect mediocre coaching, so when all of a sudden we get a coaching staff that really knows how to coach everything brightens up all of a sudden and Bo's emergence exemplifies that. Good for him.
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LIttle brother--remember the Civil War (that's what is was then!) that was winner-take-all for the Rose Bowl? One of my best Autzen memories.
WSU--I agree, keep it in the NW and we can root for them to trounce the Fuskies every year in the Apple Cup (well I guess we do that anyway).
Furd--We've had some great games over the years, it's become one of our better rivalries.
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On 10/26/2022 at 10:45 AM, Tandaian said:
I feel it biased as a little as well, but when the Pac 12 champion went 12-1, they made the playoffs both times. I have felt the CFP has done a great job picking the 4 teams. It just happens the SEC have had multiple teams only lose 1 game.
The media and talking heads don't mention it, but when you have 14 teams and only play 8 conference games it is very easy to have 2 teams go undefeated in conference play and another 2 teams only have 1 loss. When the B1G and SEC go to 16 teams, it will make it even worse. They will have a perceived strength when in reality, they have a schedule quirk.
The Big 12 currently make it impossible to have more than 1 undefeated team.
Agree, that's why I think AQs are so important. At-large teams are selected using subjective criteria and it's just about impossible to eliminate bias.
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On 10/26/2022 at 10:09 AM, Tandaian said:
They have mentioned with 12 teams, the top 6 ranked conference champions will get an auto bid. I don't believe a P5 conference champion has ever been ranked below 2 G5 conference champions, so the Pac 12, Big 12 and ACC will never miss out on at least 1 bid.
I'm not going to give the SEC and B1G always 3 or 4 teams. Right now the Pac 12 has 3 teams with Oregon #8, USC #10 and UCLA #12. B1G TEN only has #2 and #4 and will not have another top 12 team this year. Big 12 and ACC both have 2 teams in the top 12.
Don't forget, there are usually only 1 maybe 2 CFP voters from 1 conference. The rest of the conferences aren't going to just hand over hundreds of millions of dollars to the B1G and SEC.
Well I certainly hope you're right and this year's CFP selection committee looks reasonably balanced and diverse:
2022-23 Selection Committee Roster
COLLEGEFOOTBALLPLAYOFF.COM
The official 2022-23 Selection Committee Roster for the College Football PlayoffThat said, historically the makeup of the CFP hasn't been much different and they still have been biased towards the SEC, Clemson and the B!G.
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On 10/26/2022 at 9:35 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:
Here's how I understand the options.
4 teams = 2 SEC + BIG + whatever
8 Teams = 3 SEC + 2 BIG + whatever
12 Teams = 4 SEC + 3 BIG + 3 other conference Champs + whatever
Agree, no matter what scenario the SEC/B1G get over half the slots. Throw in ND any time they have a decent season, Clemson as a perennial contender and the Big-12 Champ going forward and that doesn't leave much left. We need AQ status to have consistent access and that only happens with 12 (or more) teams.
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Clearly streaming is the lynchpin of the pending TV deal, if for no other reason that it means bringing in a second bidder. Without Amazon (or Apple) ESPN lowballs us and we really don't have much recourse.
That said Amazon execs are no dummies, so they're unlikely to throw out a ridiculous amount just get some college football content, especially with a depleted Pac-12. We're not the NFL.
Will they overpay some as an investment in the future? I sure hope so, but we've certainly got to temper our expectations, we're going to get nowhere near what the B1G just got.
Canzano: Oregon coach Dan Lanning not Interested in Auburn Opening
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
Yeah seemed suspicious despite the SI tag. Sounds like wishful thinking from a fan-boy site.