AnotherOD

It is sort of interesting. Back over those last few days before Mario made his decision official, I recall commenting in some discussion about how people were feeling: and sort of reluctantly agreeing that "yes" you probably do stick with Mario rather than roll the dice with a new coach and staff. BUT, the thing Mario had to do was actually RECRUIT BETTER if Oregon was going to make any steps forward. Not that his recruiting was there -- and he just needed to coach, scheme, and develop better. The only avenue I saw Mario ever consistently doing better with what he brought to the table was to get in even better talent. He had gotten Oregon close to the often referenced 60% "blue chip" ratio, which generally opens the door to a top 10-12 program each year. BUT, in terms of what national championship squads look like, he wasn't getting enough top 70 recruits. There were some (Sewell, Flowe, KT, etc.) but by in large Mario was making his "buzz" on the recruiting scene with kids ranked maybe 150 to 400 nationally, while your Alabamas, LSUs, tOSUs, and Clemsons generally had something like 3 to 4 times as many top 70 kids. 150 to 400 nationally produces plenty of players and the top teams all have guys from those spots, they just don't particularly make a living there. Running out there with talent like Sewell, Flowe, KT, Manning great? Yes. Imagine if instead of having 4 of those guys at that level on your roster, you had 17? That is where Mario needed to go, and at the time, I think his class only had one top 70 kid committed (Banks). Because he just was never going to get there on scheme, development, and coaching. Shoot, I'm sure there was zero chance Miami was gonna let Mario consider either his prior OC or DC for the same jobs at his new school, yet those guys were gonna get Oregon to that next step of beating more talented teams regularly? I didn't know much about Moorhead (but sort of went along with the consensus it was a grand-slam hire); but, I must say, I never "got it". When Oregon's offense was just regularly blah, I looked back at some of his other teams at the D1 level and kinda mostly what I saw was a big running QB and some short read-option passing; and, really other than one strong season with a loaded Penn State roster, not exactly gangbusters. Maybe it was Mario and not Joe but let's just say I'll be happy if 80% of Oregon's offensive playbook has found a garbage receptical somewhere. DeRuyter only got one year and really was dealt a bad hand with injuries, so I can't see giving him a ton of criticism; but, I think we were expecting a bit more? Maybe something of a more aggressive plan than the same old "bend-but-don't-break" that seems to be recycled ever Duck season? Again, injuries, but 75th in points allowed, 72nd in yards allowed, 95th in red zone defense, and 41st in sacks? Don't we all feel a bit more comfortable with Lanning and Lupoi heading things? Doesn't Texas Tech seem like a good spot for DeRuyter (where I am sure he probably does fine); but, not exactly where Oregon is looking to go? Really jazzed about the shake-ups on both sides of the ball. I find it strange to be saying this but the last couple years Oregon has just been boring, both sides of the ball.

It was a while back, so I can't recall the exact details, but the year Oregon played Auburn for the NC, they lost some (almost surprisingly) small number of starts from projected starters on the year due to injury. Don't quote me on this, but my recollection is it was somewhere around 16-18 starts from the projected 22 for the year. Flowe by himself almost hit that in 2021. Somebody can correct that if in error.

Three years isn't long enough to really question the general narrative; but, the scorecard the last 3 NFL drafts IS interesting: Draft Picks by state (2020-2022): Oregon: 13 Washington: 9 Arizona: 7 2020: Oregon (3): Ben Bartch (Blanchet), Blake Brandel (Central Ca), Justin Herbert (Sheldon) Washington (5): Ezra Cleveland (Bethel), Evan Weaver (Gonz), Jacob Eason (Lake St), Jake Luton (Marys-Pil), Shane Lemieux (W Valley) Arizona (3): Dustin Woodard (Chandler), Kyle Hinton (Liberty), Austin Jackson (N Canyon) 2021: Oregon (6): Marlon Tuipulotu (Central), Brady Breeze (Central Ca), Talanoa Hufanga (Crescent V), Osa Odighizuwa (D Douglas), John Bates (Lebanon), Elijah Molden (West L) Washington (1): Joe Tryon (Hazen) Arizona (1): Roy Lopez (Mesquite) 2022: Oregon (4): Cole Turner (Clack), Teagan Quitoriano (Sprague), Daniel Hardy (Valley Ca), Samori Toure (Westview) Washington (3): Kyler Gordon (Ar Murphy), Abraham Lucas (Ar Murphy), Cade Otton (Tum) Arizona (3): Chase Lucas (Chandler), DJ Davidson (Desert Ridge), Brock Purdy (Perry)

I did notice some pretty blazing 200 meter times listed for the incoming Ducks: Khamari Terrell: 21.06 Harrison Taggart: 21.57 Christian Gonzalez: 21.65 Devon Jackson: 21.82 Jahlil Florence: 21.93 Jahlil Tucker: 22.55

I think obviously a lot of times it has to be bad advice. That said, I sometime wonder if some guys are just ready to take their shot, and if it doesn't work, ready to get on with the next step of their lives? Not everyone is gonna like school the same; and, I would imagine some people get to the point they are happy with their "college experience" and don't always want to sign up for another year of the same experience. Maybe they feel like they have gotten what they want to out of college ball, and mostly feel ready to take that NFL shot (even if it is as an URFA). Some may even feel another year isn't likely to greatly improve their chances. Not saying I would agree, just it must happen.

I think the OL is pretty much as should be expected. While I think the expression gets a touch of overuse, "high floor/low ceiling" seems to be a fair way to put it. An OL that may not dominate the Arizona's and Eastern Washington's of the college football world, but also won't be dominated by the Ohio State's or Georgia's either. Maybe not a lock future NFL guy in the current top six. At the same time, a big, experienced, mature group with a bunch of solid and successful college players. I sorta see it mostly as a "known commodity" rather than a question. With I believe 3 starters finishing their eligibility and 2 starters in their 5th season, next year may be one of those "five new starters" kinda deals.

I think Justin Herbert, as a top 10 pick, is going to average about $6.6 million per year over his first four year contract. Imagine paying a high school kid $8 million to just show up on campus? We may also see a kid like Bryce Young (Alabama), who should be off to the pros after this next season, get an NIL offer to come back to Alabama for another additional year, because as a top 5 NFL pick, he might be slotted at about 8 million, when Alabama's NIL group might offer him 10 million. Go to a bottom feeder NFL club or stay and make a couple extra million playing for (another) national championship? He still would be getting his first NFL contract going at a young age if he stayed for a 4th (or maybe even 5th) year. Take less money and go get beat up over 17 games in Detroit, or in Carolina, or with the Jets, on take more money and stay and play for national championships with all the best talent in Alabama?

If I'm remembering correctly, the ducks had adopted "the shield" punt formation (which had just hit the football world in a major way in 2002 in place of the "spread" punt formation - any special teams experts in the house?). Haloti was part of the three person group directly blocking in front of the punter. The punt gets away and Haloti gets hit chasing the play. I don't think the hit ever shows up on any replay angle but indeed it was either first quarter (or first half).

I always think back to "what might have been" 2003, when the Ducks opened the season up from with: 6-6 310 Igor Olshansky 6-5 345 Haloti Ngata 6-5 340 Junior Siavii 6-4 262 Devan Long I think 6-1 310 pound Robby Valenzuela was in the DT rotation (and the "little guy" in the group, Long, I believe still is 4th all-time in Duck football career sacks and 3rd all-time in career tackles for loss). These many years, it has stuck with me the TV analyst, in the pregame, prior to the kickoff at Mississippi State, saying he walked past the Duck DL warming up and thought he was walking past an NFL DL. Of course Haloti gets knocked out for the year in the first half, and the Ducks end up with an up-and-down 8-5 year, and that monster front never gets to completely show itself off. Igor goes on to be a second round NFL draft pick and is a multi-year starter over 8 NFL seasons, Haloti of course goes first round and plays 13 seasons including five Pro Bowls, Siavii battles injuries but plays five NFL seasons; and, I believe Long even has a cup of coffee as an UDFA and his career ends in injury while trying to make his way back to the NFL playing in NFL Europe.

I'd guess whether he can participate in the combine, or at least PRO Day workouts, will play a (significant) roll. If injury prevents those workouts, I think getting drafted becomes (extra) risky for NFL teams. If he is going to be an UFA, coming back make sense because with a strong year, I think he is a draftable player. Have not seen any updates on his injury, or if he stays, if he is expected for spring? Certainly a guy who can easily sit out spring, but with a new install coming on offense, it would certainly be a plus.

Chip wasn't as "bad" at recruiting as many seem to remember: DAT, Armstead, Harris, Buckner, Addison, Marshall, Long, Brown, Johnstone, Ifo, and many others. He also did better than probably predicted finding good kids in the 300-900 national ratings range (like Clay, Patterson, Keliikipi, Dargan, T. Mitchell, Hill, Grasu, Stanford, and others). He just never quite got over the top with recruiting, finishing each recruiting season with a long list of kids putting Oregon #2 or #3, a series of "almost", still his classes were #30, #12, #12, and #14, and again seemed to hit on a larger % of lower rated kids/JC than is probably expected. Helfrich wasn't that bad either, he got a number of kids a lot of programs were after (Tyner, Freeman, Carrington, Kaumatule, Griffin, Mitchell, Hunt, Jonsen, Ofodile, Lovette, Merritt, plus again a good amount of lower rated kids that did well: Crosby, Dye, Nelson, Jelks, Amadi, Herbert, Lemieux, Throckmorton, Hanson, and on and on). It sort of stands to reason as the glow and success started to dip, recruiting got more difficult. Maybe as opposed to Chip, he possibly had a higher "bust ratio" than would be expected with the top half of his classes (and had a few more than probably expected bad apple type situations). I've seen it argued when Chip took over he inherited an older group of coaches who didn't especially like to get out and recruit, so his "style"/approach was popular in house. By the time MH was in it, he had a very much older staff, I've even read the suggestion by then only a couple of guys on staff would ever even leave campus to recruit (didn't get out to schools, didn't get out to camps, didn't get out and talk to people or enjoy doing in-person visits). When someone had to go out and do the leg work in person, it was only one or two guys. It might just be random chatter, but you can possibly see how it might have come to pass as well. I doubt Chip is gonna change much in recruiting. He hasn't exactly cashed in on the perception UCLA was a place that would "recruit itself". Maybe if success came sooner there it might have flipped more? It would (obviously) help if Chip brought in some younger staff to do more leg work/relationship building if he were to prioritize it. Hard to say. Chip might not get there, moving forward, he now might be able to mine the portal and be just fine. It's a different game in some ways now, and to sell a kid on his second time around, may not involve as much "smothering them with attention" that the current "social media" era of recruiting seems to require.

Wasn't Wilcox in the mix when MC got the job and word was interest from JW was very lukewarm? Word on one of the Husky sites was his agent was trying to get his name into the UW coaching search due to interest from JW, but the UW never really had him near the top of their list.

I think Mario was just what Oregon needed at the time, a program stabilizer: come in, put in a system, get buy-in, hire a solid coaching and support staff, and succeed on the recruiting trail. I don't follow Miami that closely, but it sounds like it may be what they need as well. But I'm not sure he can really coach, or at least brings much to the table beyond the baseline. He needs to win with recruiting. And people love his recruiting, but having followed it myself pretty closely (since maybe 1998), I'll just say, if he is gonna win this way, it still needs to be better, and quite a bit better: if he is gonna play this bland style offense, and trot out essentially the same "bend but don't break defense" 75% of college football is using. The recruiting is very good, and watching guys like KT and Sewell is certainly fun, but it isn't close to being enough to win playing blah football. Oregon has been closing in on the magic 60% "blue chip" ratio, putting it firmly in the top 10-12. But the huge difference between Oregon and the very top programs is the number of top 50-60 recruits. In the current 2017-2021 group, MC has gotten 10 (in the 247 Composite): Georgia has 38, Alabama 37, Ohio State 33, Clemson 25, and LSU even 16. As much as USC has struggled, from 2017-2021, MC's "all time" success in recruiting at the UO recently, they still have brought in 17 top 60 recruits. Oregon is still in on some top kids, but currently I believe in this cycle Banks is the only top 60 kid. There aren't 2 or 3, let alone 5,6, or 7. Unless Oregon hires a real dud, I think Oregon can still recruit well beyond MC. The "next step" IMO is much more likely to come from better coaching, better talent evaluation, better player development, improved scheme than some future "next step" that may or may not come in recruiting (much better than we have been seeing) if it means Oregon must win with MC's current style of football, which has little to do with the current state of college football. Shoot, MC was just schooled twice by Dulwig, a former Bellotti cast off.

Interesting to look at the two QB prospects JM brought into Mississippi State while there: Schrader and Mayden: https://247sports.com/player/garrett-shrader-46038605/ https://247sports.com/player/jalen-mayden-56662/ And the graduate transfer QB Mississippi State took: https://247sports.com/Player/Tommy-Stevens-35502/ And the QB at Mississippi State who probably had the most success during the JM period: https://247sports.com/Player/Nick-Fitzgerald-33189/ It does appear JM has a certain type of QB recruit he looks for. (While not convinced QBs need to be broken into PRO/DUAL categories anymore as the distinctions between the two appear to be less and less in today's game) interesting to note all four were DUAL, while I believe JB, TT, and TB have all been PRO.

I expect AB to surprise some people. NC run? Unfortunately, 2023 in my humble opinion is where the window may actually really open. Doesn't mean there won't be a lot to enjoy before then. I'd say too high an expectation in 2021 and 2022 is just gonna disappoint some people. Just the reality of where college football/Oregon football is at this point in time.

Exactly. I'd imagine the OOC economics of a home game for tOSU are in at least the $4.5-$7 million range at least. The economics for Oregon playing anyone at home are likely $3.5-$5 million against anyone. Budgeting on travel for San Jose State, Utah State, Portland State or Sac State, maybe makes sense for a $1 million dollar payday for those schools. For Oregon, losing a home game is much bigger, even $1 million isn't going to make up for the potentially $3.5-$5 million dollars lost not having another home game. To take anything less than a return would be IMO a poor call, and something a program aspiring to go where Oregon wants to go, shouldn't let stand. Oregon is long past being "big timed". COVID sucks, but either you stick up for yourself or you don't. Let them play Central Michigan...

It may be wrong (won't be the first time); but, if healthy (here on March 1st, 2021), I'm gonna suggest AB is going to surprise some people. Maybe not Mariota or Herbert surprise some people, but exceed the (limited) expectations (many) seem to be placing upon him. Gonna' be interesting...

It does seem like MC is still at a stage where he wants to have his fingerprints on most everything, rather than be more of a CEO type coach. I'd agree MC seems well suited as a CEO (and OL co-coach if he wishes); but, I'm not really seeing any special indication he is a huge "plus influence" as either essentially a co-OC or co-DC. The whole "SEC style football" thing was an ok narrative to turn the page on the past, but it doesn't appear to describe much of what we seeing (other than maybe an unnecessary - and possibly limiting - risk adversion streak permanating the staff). And this is at a time when those programs who actually were decent at the whole "SEC style thing" have been abandoning it (because it was leaving them further behind). Most everybody wants to be physical, play fast and fundamental, and beat people up, talking about it endlessly doesn't seem to do much to make it happen. Oregon didn't appear to be especially tough or physical in 2020. Not bad, just no different than 90% of college football. When Oregon was best in 2020, it was when it's athletes were allowed to make plays in space and it played fast (and a bit reckless). With another 1-2 recruiting classes, on paper Oregon might enter into the very top tier of the "blue chip" ratio, conceivably just under the big 3 of Alabama, tOSU, and Georgia, and right in there (if not even slightly ahead) of the likes of Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, and others. Let JM fully bring in what will be a modern cutting edge college offense and let TDR do what he does (install a fundamentally sound and aggressive defense) with great talent. Win with that talent, effort, and execution (rather than trying to "fit" some older ideas/philosophy onto today's game - creating limits in the process).

I think he could still be there in 2023 when a (should be loaded) Ducks team is scheduled to travel to Lubbock. Crazy.

Once again, surprised so many negative views on Anthony Brown after 23 passes. Not only 23 passes, but 23 passes - after not playing football in over a year (leg injury) - in a new system after not playing a snap all season. That then finally being thrown into the middle of a close Pac-12 Championship game - then into the middle of the Fiesta Bowl mess. No Portland State, Wyoming, or Fresno State to bump off the rust (not even some WSU or OSU). Given that, 15-23 (65%) for 164 with 2-0 TD/INT and 40 more rushing yards with 2 more TDs seems pretty good...

For the number 882 national recruit, a home run. Didn't have a great senior year, but as mentioned, an FWAA Freshman AA, started 37 of 38 games as a sophomore and junior playing over 1,000 snaps, receiving all Pac-12 HM honors both years. Oregon gave up 179 yards rushing in 2015 and 247 yards rushing in 2016 and then JS arrived in the middle and the next three seasons were: 128, 147, and 110. Personally feel pretty good about Popo and Williams being ready to step in for 2021, but I don't know if there were a lot of game ready options at that spot over the last 3-4 seasons if not for JS? At probably under 6-1, I don't know if he ever has been a slam dunk NFL prospect (despite taking a look at the draft prior to last season). Big guys who gobble up space still at a premium; but, I don't know if he ever has been seen as a impact guy on passing downs (even in high school). By all accounts he has worked on it, just hasn't seemed to translate.

I understand young QBs want to play, but Jay Butterfield just got here. I see suggestions one foot might be out the door (but with the "COVID do-over") JB is essentially going to be a true freshman again, the same as Ty Thompson. JB was 247's #5 PRO QB in 2020 and TT was #247's #4 PRO QB in 2021, I imagine if he went to any top 25 or better type program, he knew there was going to be some competition, why not hang around a bit and see how things shake out? (I guess the suggestion is TT is going to go all Slovis and lock the thing down as a true, but, that is far from determined). My guess is JB spends most of 2021 as #2 QB and competes for 2022. If TT wins, JB waits again as #2 in 2022, and if p.t. still looks unlikely, he graduates in 3 years and transfers with 3 years still to play with no penalty (of course that could all be wrong). I see a lot of optimism for 2022, but I could see a possible set of circumstances where the Ducks again face essentially 5 new starters on the OL along with KT leaving early for 2022. Georgia in Atlanta too. That's a lot for a NC run. 2023 looks more like it to me (Portland State, Texas Tech, Hawaii and 5 conference home games listed) with TT/JB hitting his QB stride, that young 2020 and 2021 OL group with more time under their belts, and maybe even a pair of guys like JTT and Cyrus Moss leading the way up front (ok that's a huge "what if" but that's kinda how you get there, no?).

Since Ashford enrolled and is playing baseball, I think he can't be drafted back into baseball until he is 21 or a junior? Of course he could leave to play elsewhere in both sports, but if baseball is going well, I could see him less likely to chase QB playing time elsewhere (of course that could be wrong).

In today's college football, QBs are gonna leave. The better the prospect, the faster the trigger it seems. While all different situations, Oregon is hardly unique (some that immediately pop to mind: JT Daniels, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, even the UW might have liked to keep Jake Haener around a bit longer). Even the likes of Alabama, tOSU, and Georgia haven't been able to keep everyone happy. It probably was NOT the best plan to invite a replay of a QB 1A and a QB 1B for the offense into 2021. Maybe the "two QB system" made some sense in 2020 and maybe it didn't? However, I'd say it absolutely makes NO sense to possibly run a repeat in 2021. There doesn't appear to be the same need for "QB insurance" in 2021 as in 2020 that brought in a grad transfer in the first place, and there now appears to be a natural QB progressions set in place from 2021 through 2024 (with several Brown/Thompson/Butterfield/Ashford permutations). The QB room looks ordered - and areas for competition established over a reasonably expected time frame. It also makes for a slightly more appealing situation for one QB commit in 2022. Obviously, ever program would love to have about six 5 and 4 star QBs where no one worries if they play, and everyone is happy to stick around to the end to just compete, with no internal staff/locker room/fan disharmony, but that seems increasingly unrealistic.