AnotherOD

Why not? Top 50+ offensive players for the Ducks since 1990. Maybe a bit tougher, as most have their own ratings for the skill guys, and OL probably - for a number of reasons - is about the toughest position spot to rank. Where to put all these guys? What standard does one use to place them? 01. Marcus Mariota - QB 02. LaMichael James - RB 03. Penei Sewell - OL 04. Max Unger - OL 05. Jonathan Stewart - RB 06. Joey Harrington - QB 07. Justin Herbert - QB 08. Adam Snyder - OL 08. Ruben Droughns - RB 09. Keenan Howry - WR 10. DAT - WR 11. Royce Freeman - RB 12. Tony Hartley - WR 13. Maurice Morris - RB 14. Ed Dickson - TE 15. Tyrell Crosby - OL 16. Darron Thomas - QB 17. Pat Johnson - WR 18. Kyle Long - OL 19. Sammie Parker - WR 20. Ontarrio Smith - RB 21. Josh Wilcox - TE 22. Demetrius Williams - WR 23. Paul Wiggins - OL 24. Tim Day - TE 25. Jake Fisher - OL 27. Jim Adams - OL 28. Dan Weaver - OL 29. Jeffery Meahl - WR 30. Damon Griffin - WR 31. Jordan Holmes - OL 32. Calvin Throckmorten - OL 33. Shane Lemieux - OL 34. Geoff Schwartz - OL 35. Dennis Dixon - QB 36. Donte Rosario - TE 37. Christian McLemore - WR 38. Jeremiah Johnson - RB 39. Jeremiah Masoli - QB 40. Akili Smith - QB 41. Brian Paysinger - WR 41. Blake Spence - TE 42. Jaison Williams - WR 43. Enoka Lucas - OL 44. Josh Huff - WR 45. George Wrighster - TE 46. Vernon Adams - QB 47. Darrion Weems - OL 48. Deak Moen - OL 49. Jordan Holmes - OL 50. LeGarrette Blount - RB 51. Kellen Clemens - QB 52. Mana Gregg - OL 53. Saladin McCullough - RB 54. David Paulson - TE 55. Ricky Whittle - RB 56. Lee Gundy - OL 57. Jed Weaver - TE 58. Carson York - OL 59. Tony Graziani - QB 60. Byron Marshall - WR 61. Brian Addison - WR 62. Marc Asper - OL 63. Hamaini Stevens - OL 64. Jake Hansen - OL 65. Terrence Whitehead - RB 66. Cameron Hunt - OL 67. Darren Carrington - WR 68. Nick Steitz - OL 69. Charles Nelson - WR 70. CE Kaiser - OL 71. Pharaoh Brown - TE 72. Dino Philyah - RB 73. AJ Jelks - FB 74. Hroniss Grasu - OL 75. Aidan Schneider - K

Ugh. Yes. Missed Jalen Jelks. I probably would add him around JD Nelson and Avery Patterson, about #75? Great Duck. Even for a long time Duck fan, 30 + years is a tough undertaking (as the memory does fade and there just are a number of things to weigh). I probably need to update to add in at least McKinley III and Wright to the list. I'm just realizing, where is Spenser Paysinger? Got to be top 40. And I am happy to be wrong, so if there is a wrong or a big ommission, just fire away...

Since absolutely nobody asked, my list of the top 50 Duck defensive players since 1990 - I don't feel comfortable going back any further as it was before my time really following closely enough (forgive any omits and spelling errors): 01. Haloti Ngata - DL 02. DeForest Buckner - DL 03. Kenny Wheaton - DB 04. Igor Olshansky - DL 05. Rashad Bauman - DB 06. Patrick Chung - DB 07. Alex Molden - DB 08. Nic Reed - DL 09. Troy Dye - LB 10. Kiko Alonso - LB 11. Ernest Jones - LB 12. Dion Jordan - DL 13. John Boyett - DB 14. Arik Armstead - DL 15. Devan Long - DL 16. Jevon Holland - DB 17. Chad Cota - DB 18. Keyvon Thibodeaux - DL 19. Peter Sirmon - LB 20. Walter Thurmond III - DB 21. Saul Patu - DL 22. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu - DB 23. Jarius Byrd - DB 24. Matt Smith - LB 25. Jeremy Asher - LB 26. Kevin Mitchell - LB 27. Cliff Harris - DB 28. Steve Smith - DB 29. Michael Clay - LB 30. Herman O'Berry - DB 31. Terrance Mitchell - DB 32. TJ Ward - DB 33. Romeo Bandison - DL 34. Wes Mallard - LB 35. Kenny Rowe - DL 36. Anthony Trucks - LB 37. Keith Lewis - DB 38. Rich Ruhl - LB 39. Reggie Jordan - LB 40. Jerome Boyd - LB 41. Thomas Graham - DB 42. Troy Bailey - DL 43. Casey Matthews - LB 44. Will Tukuafu - DL 45. Junior Siavii - DL 46. Micheal Fletcher - DB 47. Derrick Barnes - LB 48. Marc Schmidt - DL 49. Eric Dargan - DB 50. Taylor Hart - DL And, 10 more for fun: 51. Deommodore Lenoir - DB 52. Josh Kaddu - LB 53. Brandon Bair - DL 54. Terry Miller - DL 55. Troy Hill - DB 56. JD Nelson - DB 57. Dietrich Moore - LB 58. Ugo Amadi - DB 59. Boseko Lokombo - LB 60. Matt Toeaina - DL And 25 more because I have to stop at some point: Justin Phinisee (DB), Steven Moore (DB), Matthew Harper (DB), Blair Phillips (LB), Alex Balducci (DL), Henry Mondeaux (DL), Chris Solomona (DL), Zac Freiter (DL), AJ Tuitele (LB), Jaiya Figueras (DB), Justin Hollands (LB), Eric Edwards (DB), Bryant Jackson (DL), JD Nelson (DB), Avery Patterson (DB), Silila Malepeai (DL), Tony Washington (LB), Ra'Shon Harris (DL), Darrell Wright (DL), Jeff Sherman (DB), Paul Jensen (LB), Kwame Agyeman (LB), Seth McEwen (DL), David Moretti (LB), Des Byrd (DL), Aaron Gipson (DB).

Hard to not have DeForest Buckner on the DL list somewhere. The secondary is another difficult group to crack but it would be tough to leave out Rashad Bauman.

It's natural for Oregon fans to feel the program is beginning a new era; but, to the rest of the college football world - it's the team that got absolutely handled twice by Utah and (didn't look particularly competitive in its bowl game). Meanwhile, Georgia pounded Michigan then went on to beat Alabama for the National Championship. So, I can absolutely see Georgia fans being pretty confident (and in a couple discussions I've found they actually have been a lot less dismissive than the tOSU fans last year). It is a new season, and by the most commonly used measures of talent, an 18 point spread seems like a lot; but, add in a new Oregon staff to the final impressions left at the end of last year, I can see where the number comes from.

Until we find out differently, I am gonna go ahead and suggest the Georgia players are gonna put their uniform pants on one leg at a time too. I know people feel pretty positive about the future of Duck football in 2-3 years; but, a lot can happen in that time (and that is without adding in the current changing landscape of college football). The Ducks have what one Georgia outlet recently called "an OL full of grown men" (with the current top 6 all entering either their 5th or 6th year of college football), a former 5 star HS QB that started 3 years in the SEC, possibly the best and deepest group of WR the program has maybe ever had, two highly rated promising young TEs, what appears to have become a deep and interesting group of young RBs, an experienced front 7 that may have as many as 5 future NFL players, and a secondary with two national top 100 recruits, an All-Pac-12 CB, a guy who looked like a possible AA candidate before going out for the season with injury, and two additional returning safeties with a lot of college snaps. Why not have a few expectations? This team quite possibly will be replace 14 to 15 starters in 2023 (including possible the whole starting OL, QB, and maybe 4 of it's 5 top LBs). Where will it be in 2024? Hard to say as recruiting has remained solid but possibly all but a handful of players we will see in key roles this year will even be around. Maybe expectations of a playoff run are too much; but, I don't know if anything less than a very strong season is exactly a crazy expectation. Just one opinion though.

While preseason scrimmages always draw attention, at the end of the day, I find it good to remind myself it still is just practice. Probably somewhere across the college football landscape there are a few coaches who are secretly loving their scrimmages - and are having a hard time hiding it. (If so) they seem to be doing a pretty good job of it - as pretty much all of the reports I've come across - have less than happy head coaches. It's a new Duck coaching staff, putting in new systems, with either new or young pieces stepping into many main roles (especially on the offensive skill side of things but also in some key spots on defense). It would probably be more surprising to hear scrimmage number two went off like a well oiled machine. When breaking down games, I think there often is a tendency to look at them as either: what happens if a team plays lights out, or what happens if the wheels come off for a team. Usually (but not always) both teams perform somewhere closer to the center of the performance curve. I caught some of 9-0 Georgia playing 5-4 Tennessee from last year; and, I thought Tennessee did a respectable job playing them (it was 17-10 with 0:37 seconds left until half until Georgia hooked up a 23 yard TD pass). Georgia wore them out and pulled away comfortably (UT still appears a work-in progress from the Pruitt mess and arguably the Dooley and Jones eras). I think they ended up with 17 points and 387 yards. Tennessee's offense did put up numbers all year (ending up like #16 in yards per game and #9 in points per game), so no shade, another strong showing for the Georgia D. Maybe of note, according to the announcers, Georgia never took out its starting defense, even after getting up 41-10 (on the way to the 41-17 final). It did look like UT found some success using tempo against that great Georgia D. I'm sure DL had a long look at that from the Georgia sidelines, and it will be interesting to see how much Oregon attempts a similar tempo (especially against a defense with 8 new starters). As well, can Oregon even do that (9 months removed from Mario ball) in a season opener in a new offensive system (or will it actually turn into Georgia's favor if the Duck offense isn't ready to run at tempo and instead generates numerous assorted errors)?

It's also interesting that, despite some stats, it only has taken four games for Texas Tech fans confidence in Shough to fall nearly off a cliff. Obvious just message board stuff, but the consensus among the TT fans there was TS wasn't great in his four games prior to being lost to the season, and quite possibly has lost his starting job in 2022 (some think a guy named Morton others think a guy named Smith). Some comments from "Who wins the QB battle?": Cleanship: "I think we get a surprise, and Morton starts or ends up starting at some point and finishing the season. I think you'll see Smith come in at certain times and certain packages. Shough will be back-up." Good Fellow: "Conventional wisdom says it will be Shough but I with the water cooler boys picking Morton. Smith had a better season last year than Shough...I was not impressed with Shough last season and neither was Oregon the previous season. I just don't see how that makes him #1...A pro-style QB standing upright in the pocket with a history of poor reads is the last thing you want..." arciTTech: "Shough has the tools of an NFL QB and I'll think he starts. But when the game starts, he just doesn't have the mental game needed...There's just something about All Star Practice QBs where the flaws don't show until it's game time." JRaid: "Shough is probably the safe pick. As much as it pains me to agree with Good Fellow wasn't all that impressed with Shough what I saw last season." scarletwisdom: "They will pick Shough most likely given that he is the senior. And then may change mid way through the season. He shouldn't have been in contention at all, but the fact that he is tells me that the others still have some catching up to do." dhtech: "I've been low-key afraid that everyone feels compelled to name Shough as the starter not based on what he's done or shown them, but based on what he's supposedly capable of. Meaning he's still sort of riding the wave of accolades he came out of high school with." OU48A: "From what I saw from Donovan Smith I thought he has a chance to be very effective with a good supporting scheme and some good QB coaching." MrClicks: "Agree with most. Money says Shough starts, but we need to see him consistently move the offense. Don't know if he's a gamer, not every talented player is. Hope he proves me wrong because he's got all the measurables." MoRaiders: "I’d be surprised if Shough doesn’t start. He has talent and experience. I do think there is a good chance Morton starts at some point in the season either due to injury or a need for change." There are a few fans who still hold onto the "he was a highly rated high school kid and has NFL skills" and think he should at least get the first couple games before being pulled, and the rest have already moved on to other QBs they feel have already moved past TS in on the field play. I'd fine with those who want to add Shough to Mario "QB regression" pile; but, once again perhaps another case where some stats may paint a rosey outcome but eyeballs just suggest something different. In this day and age in college football it sometimes isn't that hard to generate some good numbers (shoot I think at about the four game mark the Beavs QB Chance Nolan had a QB rating north of 190 - and that was with a couple decent opponents - yet he ended up having a fair year but not really close to that level).

I don't want to be that "stars are everything" guy; and, the Duck staff apparently were on him; but, I see the kid listed #779 nationally in the 247 composite. Since 2016 (but not counting the new Ducks for 2022), the Ducks have brought in the following OL ranked between 500 and 999 nationally: Jacob Capra #577 Logan Bathke #613 Cody Shear #951 Christopher Randazzo #822 Justin Johnson #903 Logan Sagapolu #614 Jaylan Jeffers #532 Marcus Harper #730 Faaope Laloula #804 Couple guys who still may become players for sure, but 6 seasons of guys in this OL rating range and arguably not a guy with really any meaningful snaps yet. Guys in this range tend to be more multiple year developmental guys, with the portal, maybe possibly maybe not quite as necessary as pre-portal.

It's a bit of a head scratcher. On one hand, many places have Oregon a top five national OL, on the other hand, sometimes they just kinda look like they are getting blow up. Sala is in his 6th season, Bass his 5th, and I think 5th for SJ. At this point they probably are who they are gonna be; but, if none of them can really play OT, what have we been doing for 5 years? If healthy I do see a pretty strong group. In AF and RW, I think that's two more 6th year guys among the 5 starters. DJ and JPJ I think there are a 6th and 7th that are capable Pac-12 starters. "High floor/low ceiling" comes to mind, but I don't know if that's exactly it either as it's a unit that can look great against Ohio State then turn around and struggle with an Arizona (and that isn't necessarily "high floor"). The last time Oregon had a highly rated OL, it had 3 guys who have gone on to start NFL games early in their careers and a 4th that I believe is still hanging around with the Packers. Other than Bass (who I think has a late round shot) I think the rest are good college players who likely are FA types (who face an uphill climb to ever start an NFL game). I'd be happy to be wrong but I think that is part of what we are seeing. That and Mario favoring giants on the OL. Maybe Klemm and the rest of the offensive staff have some new approaches, possibly something not on display in the spring.

Interesting thoughts. I just don't know whether there is much evidence either NIL or conference affiliation was a huge factor? It makes some sense as an argument but seems to assume some things we don't really have in evidence. Oregon gets Conerly and USC fans say Oregon dropped a big bag of cash, USC gets Banuelos and Oregon fans say USC swoops in late with a big bag of cash. Pulido may be a case of doom and gloom, or maybe not. It seems like there are enough reasons for a recruit to take an Alabama offer where it just can't mostly he really liked the Alabama offer? With the portal being a thing that looks like is here to say, recruits can always jump back to a second choice if things don't work out as hoped at a "blue blood". All that said, if I was a "three star" OL prospect, ranked somewhere from around 400 to 600 nationally, I would probably take a long look at Klemm's record (his last time as a college coach) taking OL recruits at this rating level and turning them into guys who have significant NFL careers (i.e., that 75% of the top dozen OL at UCLA in Klemm's final two years there - are still playing in the NFL fire years later - with - if I'm remembering correctly - only one of them rated at least a low 4 star). I don't have my trust Phil Steele yet, but I would suggest generally it's (more) difficult at places like Alabama, Georgia, tOSU for lower ranked OL kids to work their way through the pile of "elite recruits" to get the chance to develop (but sure it can happen). For kids at the 400-600 level of recruit, one has to wonder if in many cases differences in NIL dollars are more likely in the thousands than in the hundreds of thousands. If so, is there a hidden cost of spending a few years washing out at a "blue blood" which might mean missing out on a 4 to 5 year path that might mean a big NFL run down the road? Of course, just speculation. As much as I am uneasy about the way these dollars are being thrown right now in college football, with data clearly showing the road to the NFL isn't easy, if it is a BIG chunk of change is available right now, hard to question a kid ultimately picking one favorite school over another favorite school adding in the $ bottom line.

I think the answer must be 2015 and Canton Kaumatule (who while technically was listed as a SDE, likely was never going to play there entering college at 6-7 and 290)? If we have to throw that one out, next would be 2012 Arik Armstead (though most services listed him as either an OL (or ATH), if he was listed as a DT, he still would have been a top 20 prospect). If we can't count that one, it probably goes to 2010 where Ricky Heimuli was listed as #77 nationally and #5 DT. Looking further, there is the infamous 2007 "what might have been" pair of Myles Wade (#157) and Simi Fili (#176) - who both DNQ. 2004 had David Faaeteete (#140), and of course 2002 Haloti Ngata. Interesting to see Haloti ranked as the #10 overall prospect that year, and #2 DT. The #1 DT and #6 overall player was Texas recruit Rodrique Wright, who went on to be a good college DT, drafted in the 7th round by Miami, and played 3 NFL seasons followed by 2 in Canada. In maybe the "it's a small world" category, he now is coaching Mario's DEs at Miami. I remember (some) Duck fans being surprised to see Haloti ranked as far down as #10. He was a huge commit. I recall a story at the time about former BYU standout and then local TV reporter for the Eagles Via Sikahema (who spent 26 years in Phil and is a member of the Phil Broadcast Pioneers Hall of Fame) catching Andy Reed after a game to get a few comments. After a couple quick questions and a thank you to the coach, Andy said to Via (who knew Via was a huge BYU guy), "Congrats, I saw you guys got the big kid" - referring to the news of Haloti's initial commitment to BYU. It always struck me, #1 overall or #10 overall, #1 DT or #2, if Andy Reed knew all about you, especially circa 2002, you were probably a pretty big recruit. Unless I'm missing a name or two, not a huge list of top 200 recruits at DT for 20 classes.

I've been checking out CanesInsight a bit as well. Gonna be an interesting few year in Miami. A poster named Yoyo82 posted yesterday: "One thing I expect is for the head scratching losses to mostly go away due to inconsistent performance.It seemed like our last few coaches did not know which team was going to show up on Saturday and sometimes we'd come out guns blazing and blow out a pretty good team and sometimes we'd come out flat and be in a dogfight with a terrible team only to squeak it out or still lose in the end. I expect Mario to have his teams consistently performing at the talent level on the team which means we should win most of our ACC games pretty easily instead of going into a Duke or GT game and wondering "is this the one where we flop?" I'd expect to get to Clemson's level in the ACC pretty quickly where there's like 6 guaranteed conference wins on the schedule every year and only 1 or 2 dogfights." Big bag of popcorn indeed.

I didn't want to sound like I was nitpicking the guy, but I imagine the overall point trying to be made would be to suggest neither TT or JB have any significant college experience? Which is mostly true, though if memory serves TT played a whole half against Stony Brook, coming into a game that was 17-7 at the time, where he was able to throw 9 passes. So, not exactly a guy who has only had a handful of garbage snaps. I mean close to it, but not exactly.

"Thompson and Butterfield have each thrown three college passes." Overall an ok article, but I clearly must be getting old as it sort of bugs me that the Oregonian's new sports columnists doesn't know Thompson has thrown 15 college passes and not 3? I mean mistakes do clearly happen but it takes what, maybe about 10 to 15 seconds to pull up TT's college numbers at Sports Reference.com and check the fact if you aren't sure?

I would agree Mario and Moorhead didn't make AB miss all those throws; but, it isn't really a stretch to suggest AB regressed significantly throwing the ball during his time at Oregon. There really is tape from his time at BC that showed not only the ability to make all the necessary throws - but actually some consistency delivering down field play action bombs for the Eagles. Along with Jamie Newman, AB was a transfer QB target for the Duck staff [and just for the sake of getting the history down right, I don't think Bellotti actually exactly yanked AJ Feeley, but rather he hurt his throwing elbow around game five or six and tried to play through it, but developed elbow bursitis which left his throwing hand numb. It sort of just became clear he was having trouble handling/throwing the ball]

Over (many) years of following college football, I've often been a fan of stats, ratings, and more recently some of the advanced metrics. However, at some point you have to trust your eyeballs, and no matter what the statistics might suggest, AB was not good at passing component of the QB spot last season. You obviously should not read too much into a spring game plus a review of some highlight clips, but from the looks of it Nix is light years ahead of what we saw from AB with the forward pass. AB was reasonably careful with the ball, good with his legs, and decent directing that jumbled mess of an offense Mario and Morehead threw out there each week. But he struggled mightily with anything other than a "gimmie" throw (and that wasn't even really automatic). The plan (apparently) is for the Duck offense to add a modern down field passing component to this offense, so the Ducks will be better in that department, regardless of what numbers someone wants to throw up there, from what eyeballs tell me. The comments from Auburn fans about missing WRs on some types of vertical routes will be something to watch, but I would be pretty shocked to see it look like 2021. As most discussion and analysis over the long off-season has focused upon, it's the killer mistakes and hard to explain decisions that will be the point of focus with Nix, not his ability to put a ball in the hands of an open receiver eight yards down field. I'm hoping this isn't another season of "why isn't the coaching staff playing the backups? They have stars from high school recruiting gurus - so they must be way better than who the staff is deciding to play - what are the coaches doing?" As much as many of us Duck fans don't want to hear it, AB most likely played because the coaching staff was confident he gave the team the best chance to do well last year. There was no one (at least no one ready) to ride in on a white horse and save the thing. As painful as it is to suggest, I didn't really see anything in the Stony Brook, Arizona, and Colorado games and then the spring game that suggested TT was clearly gonna quickly get up to speed and ignite the season in 2021 (maybe down the road though). If Nix wins the spot this year - under a completely different staff- it probably won't be them becoming boneheads with the most important position on the field. Finally, my guess would be the former Duck staff was probably a bit at a loss with AB as well. Watching some BC video myself and reading some analysis, Brown WAS a better QB in 2019 at BC. The guy many of us have probably have read an article or two from, who does in detail Duck game film breakdown (Hythloday1), wrote AB's decline as a passer from BC to Oregon "is the biggest mystery I've ever encountered as a film reviewer." One has to wonder how much of that has to be left at the feet of Mario and Moorhead?

Fair enough. Obviously "overconfidence" (and the like) is something inside the program, players, and coaches, and something that fans (and game analysts) rarely will get to directly glimpse heading into a game. A few Ohio State fans I recall suggested the same idea, that it doesn't matter how overconfident a fan base may be, all that matters is the players and coaches don't feel that way, and "of course a Ryan Day led team with playoff goals isn't going to take Oregon lightly." But looking at the game, and things like tOSU getting it's base defense sliced and diced without being able to do something else, does sort of generate the question of whether they even bothered to plan to need anything outside their base defense, because it was little old Oregon and they would be up three scores in the 2nd quarter, so the base defense was going to be plenty to handle the game? It isn't like Moorhead exactly reinvented the wheel that day in the shoe. Ohio State at times looked unprepared and possibly even "sleepwalking" while a motivate Oregon team came out ready, executed, and jumped on them. I guess my point was at least this podcast appeared to make an argument #10 in talent should be respected by #3 in talent and there are no issues in what should be a competitive game, but in actually essentially does the opposite and predicts a blow-out due to Georgia's perceived position compared to Oregon. Just similar to "signs" that were there leading up to the game at Ohio State. Clearly nothing absolute, just "signs". This isn't just a Georgia thing. Many times Oregon fans have been very confident heading into a game where it was expected to win, and the refrain was always "fans can be overconfident but the players and coaches aren't" and Oregon has come out looking exactly like an overconfident team that gets punched in the mouth. Oregon State and Cal in 2020? ASU in 2019? Arizona in 2018? Talking about openers? How about Boise State in 2009?

I gave the opening a bit of a listen. I will say what appears to be his first point, doesn't seem to be that wild of a take, that a lot of people predicting the game recently essentially have been doing so suggesting Georgia may be overlooking Oregon and might sleep walk into the game and get surprised. In a manner some have suggested took place to some degree in the tOSU/Oregon game last year. The podcaster apparently follows their program closely and sees no signs of Georgia players or staff doing this. So, his suggestion people making a prediction based on something he doesn't see happening seems ok enough. But then I kept listening and I believe he says at about the 9 minute mark he is on record picking Georgia to SHUT OUT Oregon in the game ("for a million factors I have explained before which I won't go into great detail now"). Which, if is the mindset around the Georgia fanbase and program, is sort of exactly what we were hearing from the tOSU side leading into the game. (And yes that is Georgia shutting out Oregon with 8 new starters on defense - playing their first game as 1st time starters) I even recall a thread on the tOSU site (Eleven Warriors) last year where one of their posters upon finding out Thibodeaux wasn't going to play was really upset because his plan was to create some sort of "Pancake Counter" for the tOSU OL against Thibodeaux on the day. I recall mentioning this around this time last year. 247 keeps a "blue chip ratio" that measures the overall talent of the scholarship players actually on the team heading into the season. Georgia's guys are rated #3 heading into the season (at 77%) and Oregon is tied for #10 (at 60%). That is pretty close to where tOSU/Oregon sat last year in the rankings. #3 (talent) in the nation should be expecting a game from #10 (talent) in the nation. 20+ point wins and shutouts by #3 in talent versus #10 in talent in an opener actually really does sound like a degree of overconfidence.

If there are going to be two "super conferences", I tend to think those schools aren't gonna want to play anyone too tough outside their conference going forward. If you have Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU, Florida, Texas, Texas A&M, etc. (or Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, Michigan State, etc.) to deal with each year, are you gonna wanna add a home and home with Clemson, Miami, Oklahoma State, or Oregon? The ACC, Pac-12, Big-12 I think are going to have to try to play each other if they want to "soup-up" their schedules (and even if they can actually get those games scheduled), is gonna give one of the schools an extra loss, which is going to make it tough for many from the "remaining" P5 conferences to try and out-resume those at the top of the two "mega" conferences. With all the big games going on in the mega-conferences, is Oregon going to be making many waves nationally saying, "but yeah we beat Cal, WSU, ASU, Colorado, and Oregon State" we should be there too? It maybe makes sense as an argument to long time Pac-12 fans, but nationally I don't see it selling too well. Just as beating TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Houston, and West Virginia won't register too well for the B12 either (fair or not). While not exactly a recipe for becoming irrelevant, it does look like a huge uphill battle - with a lot of things each year that would have to go right - that are outside a team's control. That and pretty much going undefeated each year.

It certainly will be a storyline people will be watching. I'd say maybe a bit too soon to press the panic button? A five star South Florida kid picking Alabama, about a 10 hour car ride from home (versus a 3,200 mile flight), shouldn't really be that surprising. I guess there was some buzz about a possible Duck surprise with Young, but he had already visited Alabama twice in 2022, including taking in their "A Day" game, and Young's high school (James Chaney) apparently even hosted Saben during a visit to Florida in January. At different points, I believe their was some momentum with Young to Ohio State then Georgia, much like Oregon. As for Banuelos, certain a guy who the staff apparently was high on, so that is all good (and I'm certainly not here at all to bang on the kid); but, he currently is #537 nationally on the 247 composite and #7 in the state of Washington. While certainly a fine prospect, generally I would say hits or misses on kids rated between 500 and 1000 nationally aren't seen as "sky is falling" moments. Last year the Ducks got Conerly (#16 nationally) and Luli (#191 nationally) for comparison (even read some buzz out in computer land the big bonus with landing versus losing Banuelos is his close relationship to 2024 five star Seattle OL prospect Isendre Ahfua. Interesting.). Now, if Jurrion Dickey ever appears to be less than solid, I could understand if some are reaching for that panic button. One would hope a strong Duck season on the field goes a long way to stabilize the 2023 class (and a springboard for 2024), despite this conference mess/madness.

2007 is interesting. Looking at it, perhaps what stands out is the number of "key" players ranked nationally from 300 to 800. One wonders if those numbers reflect less developed player rankings at the time, or just the staff turning over rocks and stones and developing kids? The team did have a fair amount of highly rated kids. Far from "blue blood/blue chip" program level, but still, some dudes. Interesting to look at 2007 to 2022: National Ranking: Dixon #53 Stewart #12 Colvin #16 Jones #114 Dickson #332 J.Williams #425 Strong #773 Tupou #14 (JC) Schwartz #389 Unger #616 So'oulo #635 Tschirgi #878 Lewis UR Faaeteete #140 Reed #225 Tukuafu #32 (JC) Gibbs #159 (JC) Linehan #419 Boyd #192 Agyeman #285 Bacon #449 Mathews #347 Tuitele #410 Harper #42 (JC) Thurmond #671 Byrd #969 Chung UR Glasper #121 Nix #33 Cardwell #190 Irving #348 Franklin #41 Thornton #57 McGee #151 Hutson #229 Ferguson #231 Aumavae-Laulu #5 (JC) Bass #21 (JC) Jones #246 Forsyth #465 Walk UR Johnson #74 Funa #68 Ware-Hudson #259 Aumavae #391 Dorlus #836 Flowe #6 Sewell #13 Swinson #509 Manning #31 Addison #98 Williams #14 (JC) Gonzales #326 Stevens #137 Bridges #421 Hill #576

I haven't followed the numbers that closely but I believe prior to USC/UCLA joining the conference (this from LA Times July 3, 2022): "Initial reports indicate the Big Ten’s new deal that starts in 2024 could be worth a whopping $1 billion a year. That before UCLA and USC signed on and brought the second-largest media market in the country. Splitting $1 billion of annual TV revenue among 16 Big Ten schools yields an average of $62.5 million per school." If Oregon joins with ND, the pot would continue to grow but now it is an 18 way split, with some new members possibly not getting full shares (like Rutgers and Maryland haven't). $37 million is getting closer to what maybe $50 million as a new member of the 18 team B10 (and that is assuming not a bigger short-tenured reduction in share). As well, that allows Oregon to go tell the B10 to go pound sand for slow playing the Ducks.

More ACC/P12/ESPN Twitter rumors (this from Greg Flugar), saw this: "RUMOR: Pac12 offer from ESPN: $220 million per year, no expansion. Transfer ownership of Pac12 networks to espn. Yearly scheduling of 1 ACC team per school. Clash of Champioms “Bowl”.Also as part of this deal ESPN would pay Oregon and Washington an additional $15 million per year for the trade off of playing 2 ACC teams per year."

I think that may be two ways of saying the same thing. Rules in the NFL exist to generate a competitive product or rules in the NFL exist to generate a playing field where no owner is allowed to run the sport by being in a major market and outspending others. Very similar outcome. College football needs to generate rules that don't allow boosters in traditional power schools the ability to run the sport simply by (massively) outspending others. At this stage, NIL would appear hard to "cap" in the same manner in the same way the NFL cannot "cap" how many State Farm commercials Rodgers or Mahomes can do. It is supposed to be actual $ paid outside the sport due to calculations of true celebrity endorsement, rather than mostly pay-for-play. But that is sort of hard to "prove" when it comes to private "NIL" transactions. I can only see one short term solution that likely won't happen. Hard cap rosters at like 65. No secretly compensated walk-ons. The NFL manages to survive a 17 game regular season with a roster limit of 53. That way a program can raise as much private NIL it wants, it can only "buy" so many guys. Some will have to be left over for programs that will still have decent cash deals. If the portal is going to stay, it likely needs to be open so long. Something like 1 transfer for free open for 2 months after the season and 2 months after spring ball. Other transfers are allowed and second transfers allowed (with scholarship), only the one year penalty for playing applies.