AnotherOD

I'm not really seeing the difference in numbers supporting any argument. The biggest difference is possibly QB efficiency and the difference between 160 and 155 is about 4 spots out of 126 QBs. Most of Brown's numbers came from playing for a poor Boston College team, with several years of not so hot offenses, with Arizona/Oregon State rated talent around him, mixed around a pair of leg injuries. Eyeball test shows some similarities between the two QBs, especially with more basic throws from clean pockets; but, a difference in handling pressures, and consistent proper decision making (look at the read at 3:17 in the 2nd quarter of the bowl game on Brown's 16 yard TD run, that's the sort of play that is there - that helps make this offense work - that TS misses regularly). Brown's BC tape and limited time at Oregon does not show this massive trouble processing things and not breaking down the first sign of trouble. Also, as the season progressed, it was obvious downfield passing under TS had all but disappeared. Maybe Brown had a mixed bag at BC, but one thing not missing was the ability to stretch the field. Mistakes? Sure, but the game doesnt look 10x too fast for Brown, nor does he seem to especially panic with pressure. Its possible this goes away for TS, but at this point he has played enough to suggest its a gamble. Brown did fumble but it was an effort play and very, very close to being down. He missed a throw - but threw a nice ball for a TD called back the play before. I think we all saw four years of Herbs throwing a few regular head scratchers. I think he is allowed a couple? Especially on something like his 14th pass of the year?

"Tyler Shough's floor is Anthony Brown's ceiling. The numbers bear that out." SHOUGH: 160.4 (2020: 7 games UO) 63.5% for 1,559 yards 13 TDs and 6 INT, 9.4 ypa, 4.1 ypc BROWN: 154.5 (2019: 5.5 games BC) 59.1% for 1,250 yards 9 TDs and 2 INT, 9.1 ypa, 3.9 ypc 153.8 (2020: 2 games UO) 65.2% for 164 yards 2 TDs and 0 INT, 7.1 ypa, 5.7 ypc Brown Combined 2019 and 2020 (7.5 games): 60% for 1,414 yards 11 TDs and 2 INT, 8.8 ypa, 4.2 ypc There may be another set of numbers out there? If so, they would be interesting to review. These numbers above could be picked over for tiny differences but appear to be essentially the same.

If one has followed the Jayson Jones story, hard not to really be pulling for the kid. In the hardcore fan file, his teammate TJ Gilbert came to Oregon as a preferred walk-on. 6-2 and 235 pound LB, GoDucks listed him as #56.

Yes. Heading into next year I'd label about 5 out of the top 47 as "experienced": KT, Wright, Funa, Redd, and ISM. That's really about it. A couple guys like Steven Jones, MAL, Stephens, and A. Jackson have been around for a bit, but really haven't played that much yet. So, here is the top 50 Ducks according to 247 with grade. Anything over about 0.900 is a top 300 recruit. 5 Star: 1. KT - 0.9987 2. Justin Flowe - 0.9967 3. Sewell - 0.9935 4. Manning - 0.9841 4 Star: 5. Suamataia - 0.9831 6. Franklin - 0.9824 7. Thompson - 0.9808 8. Devon Williams - 0.9791 9. Wright - 0.9783 10. Thornton - 0.9735 11. Tauanuu - 0.9695 12. Funa - 0.9681 13. Walden - 0.9635 14. Pittman - 0.9578 15. Addison - 9.9552 16. Keith Brown - 0.9488 17. Stephens - 0.9430 18. Shough - 0.9422 19. Wilhoite - 0.9412 20. Dollars - 0.9387 21. Davies - 0.9356 22. Butterfield - 0.9352 23. Matavao - 0.9328 24. A. Jackson - 0.9313 25. Crocker - 0.9274 26. Brevard - 0.9263 27. Redd - 0.9243 28. Seven - 0.9241 29. Light - 0.9214 30. Delgado - 0.9182 31. Hutson - 0.9158 32. Ferguson - 0.9138 33. David - 0.9131 34. MAL - 0.9128 35. Webb - 0.9103 36. S. Jones - 0.9100 37. Herbert - 0.9090 38. Jaramillo - 0.9085 39. Ware-Hudson - 0.9065 40. Miller - 0.9034 41. Ashford - 0.9006 42. Jonathan Flowe - 0.9002 43. Navarrette - 0.8984 44. Denis - 0.8968 45. J. Jones - 0.8964 46. Keanu Williams - 0.8952 47. ISM - 0.8919 3 Star: 48. Kristian Williams - 0.8897 49. Benson - 0.8897 50. B. Williams - 0.8892 Edit: I did forget at least one, a transfer though, so the 247 ratio wouldn't include him but: DJ Johnson (4 star, would be 13 at 0.9648).

I might add, its still fluid, but based on who probably comes back and the new recruits, I've got Oregon currently with 47 out of 91 (because of those taking an extra year) "five star or four star" on the 247 Composite. 247 tracks this as their "Blue Chip Ratio". Their theory is that to have ANY chance at a National Championship, the ratio must be 50% or greater, usually 13-16 teams. This is scholarship guys, no walk-ons, and actually no transfers, so its 46/88 for 52%. For 2020, Washington and USC were the only Pac-12 teams represented, UW was 13th (54%) and USC 14th (50%) out of 15 teams total. When it finalizes and is computed, my first glance suggest Oregon will probably be the only Pac-12 team at 50% or greater. Of course, if my numbers don't have errors (there may be a couple in there, forgetting someone, etc., and of course I haven't actually tracked UW or USC, just eyeballing it).

Interesting thoughts on USC. I've seen many of their fans express that 2021 may be the season many/most of them have been waiting for: a middle to bottom finish in the Pac-12 South, and the end of Helton. No one in the Pac-12 lost as much to early departures as USC: Tufele (opt out), Vera-Tucker, Hufanga, St. Brown, Vaughns, Griffin, Tuipulotu. Their 2017 and 2018 classes were both highly ranked but a lot of those classes, and especially a lot of the top rated players in those classes, have already moved on (or are otherwise gone). The bulk of their guys will come from USC's 2019 number 20 rated class and 2020's number 64 class (unlike previous years which were #4, #4, #10, #2).

If so, I believe Oregon still has the Stony Brook Seawolves scheduled, which means it would likely need to add an FBS opponent rather than grabbing a second FCS game. I don't believe the Colonial Athletic Association played this year. One has to wonder if Stony will want to make the long trip out to Oregon, after a year off, with COVID still probably a lingering factor. I don't see Stony as having a history of taking big OOC "payday" type games, so its athletic department is probably at least a little more able to survive missing the game. Some recent Stony forays with the FBS: 2019: at Utah State 7-62 (L) 2018: at Air Force 0-38 (L) 2017: at South Florida 17-31 (L) 2016: at Temple 0-38 (L) 2012: at Syracuse 17-28 (L) It will be interesting to see if there is a lot of schedule juggling overall in college football or not, and when it might start shaping up. As I've read in a few places, one thing COVID has shown is that the need to plan things years in advance probably has been overstated if there is enough motivation.

A number of fans over at one of tOSU boards don't see this game happening. The reasoning that Oregon's not going to travel to tOSU without its return game being rescheduled. I tend to agree there. Ohio State doesn't take road OOC games unless its a high profile home-and-home, and it's booked up for quite a while. Its also not going to add Oregon in a year its already got one tough OOC game. Its not gonna play two OOC road games ever. I see they have: 2022: three OOC home games, including ND 2023: two OOC home games, at ND 2024: only two OOC games scheduled, but at UW 2025: three OOC home games, including Texas and UW 2026: two OOC home games, at Texas 2027: only two OOC games scheduled, Alabama 2028: at Alabama 2029: 2030: at Georgia 2031: Georgia Some suggested tOSU might buy out or reschedule Boston College in 2027, but tough to see them playing Alabama then traveling to Oregon that year. Following the formula, 2029 would be the first opening that makes sense. Oregon if it wants its return is looking at 2029. Would that satisfy the Oregon athletic department and be in tOSU's future plan? That would be at Michigan State, Utah State, and tOSU in 2029 for Oregon, which I could see (or Michigan State being moved around which is far enough out I could see happening). The most simple solution is obviously to cancel the thing, both teams pick up a patsy type, and both to cash in on a money making home game. Put it all in the COVID category and move on.

Rather than Rob's speculation of the starting OTs, doesn't it seem at this stage Aumavae-Laulu and Moore might be best as maulers at OG? If Suamataia can step in a similar manner as Sewell at OT, I sort of like: Suamataia-Jones-Forsyth-MAL-Moore Massive flexibility and legit rotation options with Baas and Walk (who play) and MAL and SJ's ability to move outside at times.

Difficult to grill Moorhead too much on the QBs. He was hired, then COVID hit, and it looked very much like the Pac-12 was still going to bag the season after other conferences had already started playing. As well, he is working with guys he didn't recruit, and walked into a situation with a dynamic set in place before he even took the job. Its also the second instance where there has been open speculation/debate as to whether the Duck OC has complete say over the direction of the offense.

OSU in 2016 had to be rock bottom. Painful to say but Taggart did go 6-1 with Herbert with one 2 point road loss (ASU). Went 1-4 with Burmeister, but sort of hard to put all that all on Taggart. I guess he recruited Burmeister, but other than JH, there wasn't a lot else in the QB room, and a true frosh playing meaningful snap probably wasn't in the thrown together plan. When Burmeister was in HS, he was the all time CIF San Diego Section career passing leader (11,512 yards and 127 TD passes). Who really knew he wouldn't be ready to complete a downfield D1 pass for about 4 years when signed? Oregon needed somebody to sign in the 2017 class. With Herbert healthy, Oregon maybe goes 9-3. 8-4 reasonably likely. Win the bowl? 10-3 or 9-4. JH's first 2 games back that year after injury, Oregon put up 117 points. If Herbert gets hurt (again) in 2018 or 2019, and misses some significant time, it is possible the whole Cristobal narrative looks a bit different right now. No real shocker AA goes to Boise State, and no real shocker Taggart goes to FSU for $5 million a year. How he handled it? Poorly. How would it have gone after 2017? Probably badly - but who knows. 10-3/9-4 looks pretty fair compared to 4-3 and an embarrassing bowl loss and performance.

IMO a tough year to reach too many conclusions. More just more food for thought. The 61.1 plays per game on offense is a pretty low number (75.9 defended). The prior two years were 73 and 68. That's going to skew the offensive numbers and one would expect (hope) it was a bit of an aberration. 21.6 first downs per game is also tied with 2018 for the lowest amount since 2009 (20.2). Still not a really low number. The 6.8 yards per play on offense also isn't bad, 5th best out of the last 10 years. Chip's best offense could spit out an average of 300 yards rushing per game (7.2 to 7.5 yards per play). Mario's not wanting to play that way - nor does his approach likely even aspire to produce rushing yards in the same amount or manner, or overall games with those higher numbers of plays or possessions. I'd think again more like Wisconsin. UW perhaps has had some similarities, except maybe attempting to be a little more "pro style" and multiple. They still have averaged 177 yards per game rushing the last decade. Stanford from 2008-2017 might be another in line with Mario? 201.9 rushing yards per game. Maybe that the plan isn't outrageous (debatable), but signs the results just aren't great. I'd say by year 4, if things are heading in the right direction, the Ducks should hit an average 200+ yards rushing per game. It shouldn't be a 10 year process. That is, unless Moorhead is allowed to put in something else, then that's to be reassessed.

Given the way Cristobal wants to play, I'd suggest the goal should be between 180-230 rushing yards per game. The offense barely hit the minimum in his first year (181), missed it slightly the next year (177), and missed it pretty badly this year (167). If you are bound and determined to do it a certain way, you probably need to be showing more success. A team that comes to mind Cristobal might want to play like would maybe be Wisconsin? Wisconsin has averaged 232.4 yards rushing over the last decade and hit an average of over 200 yards in 8 of 10 seasons.

It was an oddball year, so it's probably wise not to draw too many hard conclusions from limited data; but, a quick look appears to show Oregon's 27.3 pass attempts per game this year was the SECOND LOWEST SINCE 1988. That's 32 years (under 6 HC and numerous OC). [ 2009 at 26.0 was the only lower ] With the new guys coming in, WR is a pretty loaded spot. From a recruiting rating/talent standpoint, I can't recall anything close to Oregon possibly going Devon Williams (6 WR), Mycah Pittman (15 WR), and Troy Franklin (3 WR) across. On paper, I'm not sure it has gone a lot better than it's likely backup group of: Dont'e Thornton (6), Crocker (33), Wilhoite (21), Delgato (28), Hutson (41), Brevard (27), possibly Redd (27), Addison (3 ATH), Seven (3 APB), etc., etc. If this team doesn't find a way to be throwing the ball an average of 32-35 times a game, it's gonna' be a bit of a head scratcher. A go-to WR could develop, but 2021 looks like a team with a lot of options, especially when you also add in the RBs and TEs. Dillon Mitchell must have had well over 100 targets in 2018. Would be pretty shocked to see something like that in 2021. As well, obviously, you need a QB who can ...

"Avalos’ defense is an aggressive bend-but-don’t-break style of defense." Does such a scheme exist? I am sure everyone would like to be both - but does it really happen? I understand the point about letting teams move up and down the field and tightening up in the red zone, but isn't that a common "bend but don't break" precept? You play a lot of DBs (with softer coverage), limit explosion plays, and make teams put together long mistake free drives, then as the field shortens in the red zone, then you play it more straight up when there is less field to defend? There isn't a lot of room for aggressive approaches when there are no bodies around the LOS. Getting a lot of DBs on the field seems to be the most common approach to defending modern spread offenses. I think tOSU played a lot more traditional "cover 3" against Alabama and got shredded. It appears the real modern approach to beating these offenses is to try to score more points with your offense. To the extent of a defensive approach, put together an elite trio on the DL and get as many uber athletes who can play in space as possible (and hope they don't have a QB capable of shredding you).

Why is the pistol starting to make me think of the speculation, "If we just positioned the DL 1-2 yards off the line of scrimmage, it would offer the defensive linemen better vision and tackling angles?"

Which teams in the Pac-12 seem to have as a (primary) goal being "tough and physical" and running the ball down opponent's throats (mostly out of multiple/more traditional sets)? UW, UO, Stanford? They ranked in rushing offense: 54. Washington 61. Oregon 93. Stanford Not saying it can't be done but it certainly doesn't look easy. Maybe a good indication why it's not seemingly too popular in the college game right now. If anyone is wondering, Arroyo and new OC Glenn Thomas finished #82.

I hear that, which is why I'm a bit surprised RB doesn't appear to have been a bigger priority this cycle finishing up. But: I would say Benson is at least a very interesting prospect and looks every bit like he could play at 6-1 and 220. I guess he broke his leg early in camp this year? I'm going off memory but I believe he played smaller ball in Mississippi. Basically a two year starter who split carries with another RB who was also an FBS level prospect. They must have been killing people as he averaged only about 9 carries a game as a junior and about 12 carries a game as a senior, but rushed for 1,783 yards as a junior and 1,833 yards as a senior with 52 total rushing TDs. Crazy something like 14 yards per carry over the two years. (They were two time State champs). He might, might, might be a guy who flew under the radar a bit? And also a guy who needs a bit longer adjustment period due to the change in levels (though RB usually can be an early impact spot). Finally, also not exactly an unknown, even as a "3 star", from GoDucks bio: "Four-star, No. 259 overall prospect and No. 6 player in Mississippi by 247Sports … Top-ranked running back in Mississippi by ESPN and 247Sports … Ninth-highest rated running back ever signed by Oregon according to 247Sports … Consensus top-12 prospect in Mississippi by ESPN, Rivals and 247Sports … Rated as a three-star by ESPN and Rivals … Finished as the No. 27 running back overall and No. 1 in Mississippi in the 247Sports composite ranking … Tabbed the No. 2 running back in Mississippi by Rivals …Named PrepStar All-Southeast Region … Earned MAIS 3A District 4 first-team all-conference honors as a junior and senior."

Perhaps an interesting question might be what might we glean from RB recruiting this recruiting cycle? Looking at the most widely quoted recruiting source, Oregon offered 13 QBs (with probably 7-8 or so with solid offers), taking one. For RB, it offered only 9 (and I'd guess only about 6 were immediately convertible offers). One went to Clemson, one to Ohio State, one to Michigan, one Florida kid stayed home to Miami, Seven picked Oregon, and Oregon's got an offer out to the only West Coast RB it recruited in Cardwell (though Seven was in Cal before NY I believe). Possible conclusions?: * The staff must have some confidence in it's existing RB room and young guys. * Maybe not a big year for RB out West. * If Seven indeed is more of a DAT like guy, of the remaining 5 offers, 4 look to be a bit bigger kids/frames. Possibly concluding?: * The staff is working towards more sturdy RBs. It only appears this year to want a RB if it was an elite kid or bust, which might indicate not an urgent recruiting priority (which again might mean there is some good faith in Dollars and Benson soon).

It certainly would seem possible AA might one day appear on Oregon's radar again if MC ever departs and AA continues to rise in the profession. I'd imagine Mario's not going anywhere, but if he continues an upward trend, there are just a handful of college jobs someone (at the top of the profession) will tend to always at least listen to. As others have mentioned, one of the advantages of a larger coaching tree is (hopefully) a good candidate base of guys who you might have an inside edge upon.

One has to wonder if Oregon might be getting negative recruited by opposing coaches in regards to the pistol (i.e. "You don't want to play in the pistol", "The pistol won't develop you for the next level", etc., etc.)? It hasn't even seemed like Oregon has been in the mix for many top RB prospects recently. I mean, it does want to run the ball. I have read the last two recruiting cycles, the West Coast has been lean on RB prospects. 2022 is supposed to be better. Maybe a combination of factors? People seem to forget, until right before Chip and his offense arrived (Stewart), even coach Campbell had a pretty dry run with high school RBs? Maybe 1996-2005? It was mostly JCs (McCullough, Droughts, Morris), transfers (Ontario), and good fortune with guys thought to be brought in for other positions and converted (Whitehead). Not remembering many impact HS kids, not even upper level HS commits. After such a great run of HS running backs, maybe it starts to be expected, when for most programs not Alabama/tOSU, it probably isn't quite such a lock. Not that I follow Wisconsin that closely, but it seemed like they didn't even have their usual dude there this year (maybe the Berger kid is next?).

It looks like the defense played 8 DBs regularly in 2020 and at least 2 in Pickett and Lenoir won't be back. I'd imagine the shopping would be to have somebody to compete in the Pickett spot? I've read CB is an area that is getting a portal look as well, just so far not a bunch of options/fits. There are a few options on roster, but are either young, have been hurt, or just haven't played much. A portal player might very well be a much more experienced option, just new.

The "out tough/SEC style/smash mouth" thing has been a decent and focused UO/Mario narrative; but, I'm starting to wonder what exactly it really means in 2021 anymore? Playing a simple brand of football and just trying to out-tough and out-recruiting everyone is probably is an approach from a different era (now). As others have mentioned, an era even the biggies have moved on from. Alabama totally reinvented its offense and is now scoring 50 a game, LSU fired Les Myles and Ed O. brought in Brady/Ensminger and scored a zillion points, Clemson went to Iowa State to find a more modern defense, tOSU hired an Urban Meyer/Chip Kelly protege... I don't think the next step is quite so simple anymore.

Interesting the many different thoughts. The only real "surprise" in this short season IMO was Ryan Walk. Given that the OL remarkably appeared to manage on a 6 man rotation, especially beneficial (if not a bit scary overall). From my perspective, the others weren't so much "surprises" as getting confirmation some guys who hadn't played much, looked very much like they belong at this level, and will likely be successful starters (maybe even more): Devon Williams, the JC OL (Bass, MAL, Moore), Dorlus, Johnson at TE, Kattleman, maybe Sewell (cause you never really know, until you know), probably Hill. Some guys as well, who flashed, and probably would be on the list if the season were longer: Kris Hutson, Kristian Williams, Ware-Hudson, maybe DJ James. It would be awesome to have Dollars on there, it just is hard to do on an 8 carry season. Some guys maybe we would have loved to see more from OR more solid confirmation from (this year) - but will have to wait and see: Tyler Shough, Webb (hurt), Addison, Benson (hurt), Flowe (hurt), Adrian Jackson (hurt), Manning (hurt), Stephens, Tauanu'u.

I see the article saying Oregon opens at Ohio State next year. FBSchedules.com has Oregon opening with Fresno State on Sept. 4th and Ohio State as game two on September 11th. Did something change? The tOSU site has the Oregon game listed as still on the 11th, and the Fresno State has their Oregon game still listed as on the 4th. Did something change and those sites just haven't updated, or is Oregon opening up with Fresno State? Ohio State has an early opener listed on the 2nd (Thursday) versus Minnesota, instead of most everyone else on the 4th. If the old rules apply about when you can start fall camp, Oregon opening against tOSU (no Fresno State) on the 11th would mean I believe Oregon starting 9 days later, which would be bad.