I've felt pretty good about the Ducks since the matchup was announced (and not to slight ISU in the slightest).
If both teams are roughly healthy, if Oregon shows up motivated to play, doesn't have a terrible TO margin, and gets an at least "slightly below average" (or anything better) performance from its QB spot, I like the odds.
Not to oversimplify, but in a neutral site game, if both teams show up motivated, there isn't a significant difference in TOs, and the higher rated team gets performance at its most vulnerable spot, I'd suggest teams rated 10-15 in FBS recruiting have a very, very solid record against teams 50-55 in FBS recruiting both regular season and bowls. "Talent gap" isn't a 100% predictor, but the numbers are consistent. Mario so far being a pretty good "big game" type coach to this point at Oregon gives me a notch more confidence.
Oregon fails in any one of those spots, ISU is absolutely capable of winning, maybe even going away. I'm thinking 2000 Sun Bowl kind of deal. Lots of shocked Texas fans that day. Ducks don't wanna go there.