FishDuck Article Administrator No. 1 Share Posted June 20, 2023 With what feels like an imminent media deal coming, it seems there may be a plan to keep this historic conference together. Here is what George Kliavkoff’s plan for the Pac may look like. Phase 1: Survive This is where the conference finds itself now. The Pac-12 needs to sign a media deal that is equal to or ideally ahead ... Could This Be the Pac-12's Long-Term Plan? FISHDUCK.COM With what feels like an imminent media deal coming, it seems there may be a plan to keep this historic conference together. Here is what... 1 1 5 Two Sites: FishDuck and the Our Beloved Ducks forum, The only "Forum with Decorum!" And All-Volunteer? What a wonderful community of Duck fans! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 2 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Great stuff, once again, just seems like George is more like a sloth in the middle of a road, than a savvy negotiator right now. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus No. 3 Share Posted June 20, 2023 I do not agree with the premise of the article, as I don't think USC and UCLA are going anywhere. They will be in the B1G for the next century or however long college athletics exist. The PAC will exist in its current form as long as the B1G wants it to exist in its current form. The Big 12 might not be able to pry away teams from the PAC 12, but the B1G can have its pick of whoever it wants. No one is turning down that invite if it were to come. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 4 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Thanks, David. A few thoughts. The Longhorn Network is a bust and will disappear when UT joins the SEC next season. ESPN's LHN will be absorbed by ESPN's SEC network. USC was receiving a bigger piece of the pie before Larry added CU and Utah. 1st on his to-do list should have been GK assuring that SC was happy. (UCLA isn't going anywhere without SC.) SC was dysfunctional under Helton in football and was dealing with more important issues such as trying to overcome an admissions scandal. Carol Folt fixed this problem with the help of the judiciary but there are still leaks in the dam such as not properly vetting the New AD hire. IMO, the LA schools should have been getting a bigger piece of the media pie. I feel the same today with Oregon and UW likely to continue to receive the same media cut as Wazzu. I expect the idea of a one for all, all-for-one media revenue cut will disappear in the next decade. I have seen nothing to date that convinces me that GK, another guy with no ties to college athletics, is a vast improvement over Larry. Closing down the SFO HQ and network relocation was a no-brainer. And as noted above he failed miserably in dealing with the LA schools. Lots of incompetent folks are still on the Pac-12 payroll. For the conference to retain the California football scheduling model in 2023 was a stab in the back to the loyal Pac-10 schools. And to give SC the week off prior to the conference champ game is absolutely absurd. More importantly, how could the man and the conference be so out to the media lunch that it allowed the B12 to do a deal ahead of it? As much as SC stabbed the Pac-12 in the back there were others holding knives, FOX, and a lying B1G commissioner in Kevin (now gone) Warren. Warren left the new B1G commissioner with a $5M (and counting?) hit to the projected $70M per team annual distribution from the new media deal. Warren also promised NBC the B1G football champ game media rights, something he had no right doing. Additionally, the role of NBC's streaming affiliate, Peacock with its 20M subscriber base, was not detailed. SC also piled on by leading the charge to prevent expansion into the Central time zone and killing off a P5 competitor and thus a competitor for media rights. Academic bona fides is an anchor back to the past in today's media cutthroat world on CFB business. Kansas for CBB moves the needle but overall as a media market, Kansas is irrelevant. The big brands left on the board besides Oregon and UW are Notre Dame, immersed in the ACC but for football, and other schools in the ACC including UVA, UNC, Clemson, FSU, and Miami. The ACC is far more simpatico for the Pac-10 than are B12 teams the Pac could have had and passed on. There is a way in which the two conferences can merge and restrict travel. But my guess is that CFB is too parochial to consider the logical business fit. BTW, Georgia Tech and the Atlanta market are farther west than Detroit, Michigan.) I do not see UCLA returning to the fold. UCLA's athletic department in 2022 finished $34M in the red. I think it is far more likely that FOX/B1G will add additional west coast teams to abate UCLA's and USC's travel issues. The B1G has to have its eye on Cal, Oregon, Stanford, and UW. Schools that can likely be added for a discounted B1G media revenue share. Will the conference survive? Probably for the next 5 to 6 seasons but if a media deal is not concluded before Pac football media days in July all bets are off; especially, if the B12 can entice FOX, CBS, and/or NBC to come up with the money to grab the 4 Corners schools. And if the conference survives being in the streaming forefront with Apple or Amazon this could give the conference a long-term shot at thriving. Both Apple and Amazon have far more inroads into households than does Peacock and a big tech company is not going to agree to stream college athletics and then not market the product. Thanks again, great article. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 5 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 6/20/2023 at 9:49 AM, Rufus said: I do not agree with the premise of the article, as I don't think USC and UCLA are going anywhere. They will be in the B1G for the next century or however long college athletics exist. The PAC will exist in its current form as long as the B1G wants it to exist in its current form. The Big 12 might not be able to pry away teams from the PAC 12, but the B1G can have its pick of whoever it wants. No one is turning down that invite if it were to come. I do not disagree but like everything, the decision for each school will come down to economics. How much of a media haircut will Oregon be willing to take compared to say Rutgers and Northwestern to move to the B1G? Of course, this assumes that Oregon will have a decent alternative. The B12 does not have a printing press. I do not see any 4 Corners school if there is an alternative, agreeing to take a lesser cut than BYU. I don't believe any Pac-10 school wants to travel to West Virginia and Orlando, Florida. What could change the entire college sports calculus overnight is if the Sword of Damocles issue in regard to college athletes being employees drops. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Washington Waddler Moderator No. 6 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Yes, good article. Have to agree though that the LA schools are probably gone for good. If the B1G is intent on keeping them, any issues either school has with travel costs and scheduling will be negotiated in-house. Even if one or both wished to feel-out what PAC-12 re-entry would look like, the #1 issue on the table would still remain media-driven $$. As an alternative view, there remains the long-term possibility that a majority of the PAC-12 does remain together, but only as the result of coming through the back-door by merging with the B1G as its western division, thereby putting to rest most of the travel/scheduling cost issues. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
kirklandduck Moderator No. 7 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Quote If UCLA leaves the B1G in 2030 to return to the Pac, it may force USC to reconsider their B1G membership. Then again, maybe it may be worth leaving them to rot in the travel nightmare that will be their B1G membership. If USC returns to the Pac at that time, great. If not, that will just result in the Pac looking elsewhere to add another member. That was the best part of the article lol Thanks David! 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 8 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 6/20/2023 at 6:49 AM, Rufus said: I do not agree with the premise of the article, as I don't think USC and UCLA are going anywhere. They will be in the B1G for the next century or however long college athletics exist. I think that is likely... But I think it has a few more factors at play. One, if Oregon and Washington feel they have enough access to the CFP they may not feel the need to move to the B1G if they are feeling good in their financial situation. Two, UCLA may make more in the B1G but will it fix their financial problems? That has yet to be seen. Sure more money but also a greater cost in travel. I was thinking of trying to dive into a few of these questions in my next article.. we'll see if I have the time on that front. I may be on summer break but I still have a one year old walking around the house. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 9 Share Posted June 20, 2023 This is my 100th article with FishDuck. A quick shout out to Charles for giving me the opportunity to write and be read by you all. And then a bigger shout-out to the editors who have helped make my articles so good, Natalie Liebhaber and Andy Mueller have done the bulk of the editing for me so big thank you to both of them. Looking forward to the next 100! 1 1 1 1 7 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 10 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 6/20/2023 at 6:49 AM, Rufus said: The Big 12 might not be able to pry away teams from the PAC 12, but the B1G can have its pick of whoever it wants. No one is turning down that invite if it were to come. Maybe. In 5-6 years...perhaps Oregon will have realized that being in the Pac-12 earns enough extra revenue from post-season play winnings, and from additional streaming subscribers across the globe that it behooves them to stay? Fun to watch for. 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 11 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 6/20/2023 at 8:59 AM, Jon Joseph said: What could change the entire college sports calculus overnight is if the Sword of Damocles issue in regard to college athletes being employees drops. This is a biggie. Something that has not been discussed is the impact on the Rutgers, the Marylands, the Northwesterns of the B1G if they have to pay football players AND support Olympic sports? There may be big fall-out of teams in the B1G, and this also creates opportunity. Ditto for the Pac-12, and certainly a muddy outlook to the future. So in the meantime--the Oregon Brand is fine and... 1 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 12 Share Posted June 20, 2023 David...great article for pondering as John Canzano recently suggested that GK has been easy on UCLA, as if he is not burning bridges for years down the road. It is plausible, and would regain the LA market and change the dynamics. 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 13 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 6/20/2023 at 12:45 PM, David Marsh said: I think that is likely... But I think it has a few more factors at play. One, if Oregon and Washington feel they have enough access to the CFP they may not feel the need to move to the B1G if they are feeling good in their financial situation. Two, UCLA may make more in the B1G but will it fix their financial problems? That has yet to be seen. Sure more money but also a greater cost in travel. I was thinking of trying to dive into a few of these questions in my next article.. we'll see if I have the time on that front. I may be on summer break but I still have a one year old walking around the house. Great thoughts. UCLA is spending a lot of 'dead money' on fired coaches. This will diminish in a few years. But the model at UCLA is shaky. The Bruins, because the arena helps secure bond payments, have to pay to practice in Pawley Pavilion. How big will the Cal tax be for the Bruins move to the B1G? A lot of folks were disappointed that the CA Board of Trustees approved the move and you can bet that the Cal administration will be looking for significant dollars. Pretty easy to determine gross dollar-wise based on what UCLA is paid annually by the B1G and what Cal will gross from the B1G media deal. A one-year-old? You have your hands full my friend. I know, I'm telling Noah about The Flood, right? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 14 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 6/20/2023 at 1:04 PM, Charles Fischer said: This is a biggie. Something that has not been discussed is the impact on the Rutgers, the Marylands, the Northwesterns of the B1G if they have to pay football players AND support Olympic sports? There may be big fall-out of teams in the B1G, and this also creates opportunity. Ditto for the Pac-12, and certainly a muddy outlook to the future. So in the meantime--the Oregon Brand is fine and... I love it when FishDuck goes fishing! Did you catch and mount the B12 commissioner? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 15 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Or is George the tortoise, while the other conferences, or those who moved too quickly the hares? It is going to take some shrewd moves and luck to make that scenario play out. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 16 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 6/20/2023 at 10:19 AM, Haywarduck said: Or is George the tortoise, while the other conferences, or those who moved too quickly the hares? It is going to take some shrewd moves and luck to make that scenario play out. Long game vs short game. I do feel there is a chance for things to work out for the PAC in some significant ways. It will require some luck but everything in life feels like it takes just a little bit of luck. What's certain right now is that we are still squarely in phase 1... Survival. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HDuck No. 17 Share Posted June 20, 2023 I would just add to the UCLA (return?) discussion that most of us fans on the West Coast have not yet really grasped the level of resistance the current Big10 programs have to additional travel to the West Coast. It is very real, and very deeply held. Even if UO/UW could add almost equivalent media value as mid-tier BigTen programs...there is still tremendous resistance. It's so deeply held, it is almost irrational. But, I don't believe most of my fellow Pac12 fans yet comprehend the B1G members feelings. So, will UCLA become disenchanted with so many travel games across its sports spectrum? Can the B1G come up with some options? Such as scheduling nearby opponents back to back which hasn't been a B1G scheduling thing in the past. Maybe UCLA playing Illinois and Northwestern in basketball, both in Chicago, for example? Maryland and Rutgers both in D.C.? Football is a different animal, not sure there will ever be a compromise that would be in UCLA's interest unless more West Coast opponents are added....but, I don't think that is going to happen anytime before 2030. By then, the difference in media shares between the Pac12 and B1G will be even more pronounced and UCLA will be trapped. Perhaps the B1G would add 2 in the West and 2 in the East? Not just for markets, but to avoid travel to the West as much as possible? There would be two more travel sites nearby in the East, and two more teams to split the travel requirement to the West. If there were 4 teams in the West, that would be 18 total home games in-conference. 6 of them could be filled by the 4 playing each other, leaving 12 home games that a 20-team B1G's other 16 teams would have to fill. That's less than one trip per year to the West. If it is just 2 in the West, then the other 14 teams have to fill 8 home games in the West. Again, less than 1 trip per year. Yet, current B1G programs are irrational about it. Current B1G teams may want to adopt an SEC type schedule with permanent opponents to make sure all West teams face each other thus reducing trips to the West for everyone else? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kamikaze Kid Moderator No. 18 Share Posted June 20, 2023 What may become the game changer just may be how media contracts are designed in the future. The internet is quickly replacing cable for the viewing audience across the board. It would not surprise me if the next round of deals are primarily focused on internet viewership numbers. Net statistics are easy to track and can provide fairly accurate statistics for advertisers and media companies. If for example UO vs anybody is shown to produce 10,000,000 views per game internationally but lets say Purdue has 90% less, nobody is going to want to hand over twice as much money to the Boilermakers than the Ducks. It could be quite possible that UO could make as much if not more than UCLA and USC and never have to leave our west coast conference to do it. I agree with Dave's take on phase one. Just weather the storm short term and hold the conference together then prepare for the fast approaching future. 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 19 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 6/20/2023 at 11:27 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said: The internet is quickly replacing cable for the viewing audience across the board. It would not surprise me if the next round of deals are primarily focused on internet viewership numbers. Net statistics are easy to track and can provide fairly accurate statistics for advertisers and media companies. Agreed. This is far more accurate than "media-size" as how many in LA are actually watching USC/UCLA? I believe more are actually watching Oregon and OSU than those two schools combined, yet we are measured by media size of the state of Oregon vs. LA. 1 2 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 20 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 6/20/2023 at 1:19 PM, Haywarduck said: Or is George the tortoise, while the other conferences, or those who moved too quickly the hares? It is going to take some shrewd moves and luck to make that scenario play out. The ACC moved far too quickly after Maryland left to lock everyone else in and is now saddled with a terrible media deal that is offset somewhat by ACC network income. The deal Larry signed was considered to be fantastic at the time but ran far too long and was eclipsed by all but the ACC deal. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 21 Share Posted June 20, 2023 (edited) On 6/20/2023 at 12:38 PM, Jon Joseph said: The ACC moved far too quickly after Maryland left to lock everyone else in and is now saddled with a terrible media deal that is offset somewhat by ACC network income. The deal Larry signed was considered to be fantastic at the time but ran far too long and was eclipsed by all but the ACC deal. Sloth, or, we can only hope, the tortoise who wins in the end. Stay tuned, or not, as this tortoise race isn't too fun to watch. I suppose just a little better than the dawgs spring game. Edited June 20, 2023 by Haywarduck 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notalot No. 22 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Thanks, David, for the article. I see the present and future different than you do. Oregon will ultimately respond to and participate in a full realignment of the top teams in college football. I believe that the Ducks will play in several championship playoffs before the reshuffling occurs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 23 Share Posted July 8, 2023 On 7/8/2023 at 2:47 PM, Notalot said: Thanks, David, for the article. I see the present and future different than you do. Oregon will ultimately respond to and participate in a full realignment of the top teams in college football. I believe that the Ducks will play in several championship playoffs before the reshuffling occurs. Not saying this will happen... But I think it might be their plan. It's easy for this whole thing to get blown up. I think it's just as likely that everything gets divided up into the big two and everyone else. I wrote about that scenario last year. The Great College Football Schism is Coming FISHDUCK.COM The great college football schism is coming, and it will fracture college football in a way that will shake the... And how everything could see a major reset of sorts. The Eventual College Football Renaissance FISHDUCK.COM The Great College Football Schism is Coming, and it will leave College Football divided between the... But as with all things it's highly speculative. I also think that the financial game would have to change dramatically because it doesn't really pencil as it stands for Oregon to join the B1G. For that to work and make sense on a financial level there would have to be a willingness for whatever that contract looks like to help alleviate travel expenses for teams that have to travel the most. I highly doubt that would be the case as it stands right now... Or they add more west coast teams which would cause new problems. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 24 Share Posted July 8, 2023 When USC asks to get back into the Pac. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
fred flintstone No. 25 Share Posted July 8, 2023 With NIL and the streaming services evolving so rapidly and with so much cash..... who knows what is going to happen. One thing for sure, anyone who wants the Pacific Northwest has to come to Oregon. It is also easy to speculate that Mr Knight has a rather large foundation set up in his estate for Oregon Athletics. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 26 Share Posted July 9, 2023 On 7/8/2023 at 6:25 PM, David Marsh said: Not saying this will happen... But I think it might be their plan. It's easy for this whole thing to get blown up. I think it's just as likely that everything gets divided up into the big two and everyone else. I wrote about that scenario last year. The Great College Football Schism is Coming FISHDUCK.COM The great college football schism is coming, and it will fracture college football in a way that will shake the... And how everything could see a major reset of sorts. The Eventual College Football Renaissance FISHDUCK.COM The Great College Football Schism is Coming, and it will leave College Football divided between the... But as with all things it's highly speculative. I also think that the financial game would have to change dramatically because it doesn't really pencil as it stands for Oregon to join the B1G. For that to work and make sense on a financial level there would have to be a willingness for whatever that contract looks like to help alleviate travel expenses for teams that have to travel the most. I highly doubt that would be the case as it stands right now... Or they add more west coast teams which would cause new problems. Thanks for re-post of your great 8/22 article, David. Mike Leach, RIP. The money isn't that much different in the B1G than in the SEC but the on-field, on-court, on-diamond, track and field, and generally across the college sports panoply of sports favors the SEC way over the B1G. The SEC not only racks up wins but it racks up titles. In 2023 Florida won the men's golf tournament and the Outdoor Track and Field title. LSU won the Women's CBB title and the College World Series for the 7th time trailing only USC with 8 titles. And of course, Puddles got an upfront and personal look at UGA's back-to-back football championship team. The SEC's new media deal needed 1 media company, Disney/ESPN to score $70M per school per annum. The B1G needed Fox, CBS, and NBC/Peacock to arrive at $65M a team per annum with the $65M not yet cast in stone. Among other oops was the back-stabbing Kevin Warren anointing NBC to broadcast the B1G football champ game, something he had no business doing. And lo and behold, NBC's Peacock with 20M subscribers will be broadcasting 8 B1G games in 2023. And NBC/Peacock forced Michigan State to move a home game from E. Lansing to Detroit. Without the poaching of the LA schools, the B1G media deal would have been closer to $50M to $40M. If the LA schools had stayed home a Pac-12 media deal would be done at this date, coming in at $40M to $50M a school. And the LA schools could have received as was the case for SC before Larry brought CU and Utah on board, a bargained for bigger piece of the media pie. Instead, the LA schools are sneaking out of town with a media revenue gain of approximately $15M to $20M at best from what the 2 could have scored if they had stayed home and with difficult travel for its football teams and torturous travel for the non-revenue sports athletes. (With UCLA being whacked annually by a $2M to $10M payment to Cal.) And the chances of SC/UCLA playing in an expanded football playoff are not as great as Oregon staying in the Pac-10. Be careful of what you wish for. With the football playoff going to 12 teams and the basketball tournament going to a rumored 80 teams, with a streaming component that taps into far more homes than Peacock and 'traditional' media money drying up, I think Oregon is just fine, subject to the media deal finally coming to fruition at a decent number, staying with its Pac compadres on the West Coast. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
