Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted October 16, 2023 Hats off to the Pac-12. The conference is going out with a bang and not a whimper. The Road to Las Vegas for the Pac-12 conference champ game is loaded with land mines for all of the contenders. To date, 2 teams, Washington (SIGH) and USC are undefeated in conference play. (Teams ranked using AP Poll Rankings after Week 7.) The rankings will change down the road. As an example, 25 UCLA may not hang in the top 25. Only 1 ranked team, USC on the road left to play, but Arizona in Tucson will be a tough out for the O-challenged Bruins. What a break for the Bruins missing both OREGON and Washington. With many ranked vs. ranked games left, it will be tough for the Pac-12 conference to finish with 6 top-25 teams. This is what happens when you play a 9-game conference slate in a deep conference with parity. By comparison, with an 8-game conference schedule, 4. FSU and 10. North Carolina misses one another in the regular season. And the B1G is a 3-team conference in 2023. Iowa is ranked (with a rank offense) but Penn State defeated Iowa 31 - 0. 5. Washington - 6-0/3-0 ASU Stanford At 18. USC 14. Utah At 12. Oregon State Washington State - This game should be rotten apples for the boys from Pullman. 3 ranked teams - 2 on the road ..................................................................................................................................... 18. USC - 6-1/4-0 - A bad loss in South Bend but a non-conference loss. 14. Utah - Can the SC D hold up against the Utes run game and can the Trojans offense bounce back? At Cal 5. Washington - This could be a shootout. At 9. OREGON - The Ducks with a big edge on D in this game. 25. UCLA 4 ranked teams - 1 on the road ......................................................................................................................... PAC-12 Teams with 1 Conference Loss. 9. OREGON - 5-1/2-1 Washington State At 14. Utah - Tough, tough road game but Utah will be coming off of a trip to LA. And since joining the Pac-12, Utah has not fared well in LA. Cal 18. USC - The Ducks 'should' win this game. At - ASU 12. Oregon State - Do you think the Beavers will be fired up? 3 ranked teams - 1 on the road. Oregon is the last Pac-12 team, led by Justin Herbert, to win in Salt Lake City. ........................................................................................................................ 14. UTAH - 5-1/2-1 At 18. USC 9. OREGON ASU At 5. Washington Arizona - With home games vs. Utah and Oregon State, a good Arizona team has a chance to play spoiler. Colorado - Prime Time in name only. 3 ranked teams - 2 on the road. ......................................................................................................................... 12. Oregon State - 6-1/3-1 BYE At Arizona At CU Stanford 5. Washington At 9. Oregon 2 ranked teams - 1 on the road. ................................................................................................................................... USC has 4 ranked teams left on the schedule but only 1 game, at OREGON, is on the road. Utah and Washington have 3 ranked teams left with 2 on the road. OREGON - has 3 ranked teams left with 1 on the road. Oregon State has 2 ranked games left but as of today, both are against top-10 teams with 1 on the road at OREGON. ............................................................................................................................... Based on the post-Week 7 AP Poll, I have to give the toughest finish to Utah. Yes, USC plays 4 ranked teams but only has to leave LA once for a tough game in Eugene. A close second to Washington. UW defeated Oregon State by 3 points last season and if the Beavers had kicked 2 chip-shot field goals instead of going for 2 TDs on 4th down ...? Salt Lake City is a tough place to win a game. But OREGON with USC and Oregon State coming to Eugene has the Autzen advantage. It should be a whale of a finish. How did this conference become a fish out of water? SIGH. Gazing into the crystal ball, I see a rematch between OREGON and UW on December 1st in Las Vegas. The perfect result would be a Ducks win with both teams finishing 12-1 and 2 Pac-12 teams being in Final 4 consideration with a 12-1 champ a final Final 4 lock. 1 4 3 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Sousa No. 2 Share Posted October 17, 2023 On 10/16/2023 at 9:54 AM, Jon Joseph said: Gazing into the crystal ball, I see a rematch between OREGON and UW on December 1st in Las Vegas. The perfect result would be a Ducks win with both teams finishing 12-1 and 2 Pac-12 teams being in Final 4 consideration I was thinking this same scenario would give the Ducks and Huskies a chance to play each other 3 times in one year. The "impossible" could happen this year. Best 2 out of 3??? 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasDuck No. 3 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Ducks just need to win out. 2 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 4 Share Posted October 17, 2023 On 10/16/2023 at 8:15 PM, Jon Sousa said: I was thinking this same scenario would give the Ducks and Huskies a chance to play each other 3 times in one year. The "impossible" could happen this year. Best 2 out of 3??? And in the Rose Bowl! WOW! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 5 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Oregon State could give Washington all they can handle (same with Utah), especially since it's in Corvallas. Both those teams play tough defense and run the ball. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 6 Share Posted October 17, 2023 College football bowl projections: What Washington's win means as season hits halfway mark College football bowl projections: What Washington's win means as season hits halfway mark WWW.USATODAY.COM Halfway through the college football season there seems to be some sense coming to the weekly bowl projections but the... 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ktmguy2018 No. 7 Share Posted October 17, 2023 How awesome would it be to have two PAC-12 teams headed to the playoffs? ASSUMING that both Oregon and UW have one loss (UW losing to Oregon in the Pac-12 championship), it would be challenging to find any better one-loss teams with the strength of schedule. I don't know that Florida State will lose a game, Michigan could drop a head scratcher, Ohio State will lose to Michigan, and Georgia will lose one, especially if Bowers is out for an extended time. It would be fitting that the final year of the PAC sees two teams in the playoffs. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kamikaze Kid Moderator No. 8 Share Posted October 17, 2023 The beautiful thing about UO's schedule is that if they win out, they'd hang a second Pac loss on every team with only one loss as well as win a tie breaker with USC between the only teams with one loss. They still control their own destiny. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 9 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 10 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Where Oregon stands among teams with best chance to make College Football Playoff A week ago, Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks had the entire world in front of them. They still do right now, but their room for error has vanished after a 36-33 loss to the No. 5 Washington Huskies on the road in one of the best games of the season. That’s an important note for all Oregon fans reading this article. While the outcome this weekend was disappointing, with the Ducks suffering their first loss of the season, it’s imperative to realize that nothing has changed for the team. They still have a good shot at making the Pac-12 Championship Game if they can win the remainder of games on their schedule, and should the run the table from here on out, there’s a more-than-likely chance that they get into the College Football Playoff, as well. How likely is that to happen? To answer that question, we turn as we often to to the ESPN Football Power Index, where teams are given a probability to see the postseason. Here’s where Oregon stands among the top teams in the nation when it comes to the percent chance that they can make it to the College Football Playoff... Where Oregon stands among teams with best chance to make College Football Playoff DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM The room for error is gone, but the Oregon Ducks still rank among the nation’s best when it comes to percent chance they can make... 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 11 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Upon further review and FWIW, how I see it playing out. Oregon State is off in Week 8. A nice late week for a bye. (Not as nice as SC's bye before a potential champ game appearance but I see SC finishing with at least 2 and possibly 3 conference defeats.) The hinge game for Oregon State? On the road in Week 8 in Arizona. The Oregon State D is very good in Corvallis and not so much on the road. Jedd Fisch, an unheralded hire, has done a terrific job turning Arizona around as evidenced by the close home loss to UW and the road beatdown of the Cougars in Pullman. I think OSU at AZ will come down to the wire but I think that OSU will win this game. Oregon State's next big test post-Arizona will come the week before the Civil War when it plays UW in Corvallis. OSU lost by 3 in Seattle last season while eschewing 2-chip shot FGs in favor of going for the TD on 4th down. OSU will come into this game off a home game vs. Stanford. UW will visit Corvallis coming off games at USC and vs. Utah. I think Oregon State will win this game at home. Oregon's biggest test before the Civil War will come at Utah in Week 9. The last Pac-12 team to win in SLC was Oregon behind Justin Herbert in 2018, a 30-28 Ducks victory. I think Oregon will win a hard-fought game vs. the Utes. If I am correct (always questionable) the final week of the regular season will see UW vs. WSU at home in the Apple Cup and the Civil War. All three teams IMO will come into the final regular season game with 1 conference loss. UW will defeat WSU. So, the Civil War will be the game that determines which Pac-12 team from Oregon trips to Las Vegas. This will be a brutal game with OSU coming into Autzen as a 2024 member of the Pac-2. OSU will be ticked off and fired up to crush the Ducks conference champ and playoff hopes. ESPN's FPI gives Oregon a big Civil War win percentage. This game will be played on Friday the day after Thanksgiving. The game will kick off at 8:30 Eastern and is certain to be a game watched by at least 5M viewers. And on November 24th in Eugene, the weather (even though It Never Rains in Autzen Stadium) could be a problem. This is a rivalry game (DUH!) that Dan Lanning, now 3-0 in the last rivalry games and 0-For on 4th down attempts in these games, very much needs a win in what could be the final Civil War game. I think the Ducks win a game that will go into the 4th quarter and have a slight advantage with one more day of rest before the conference champ game on Friday, 12/1, likely to have an 8 PM Eastern kick-off on Fox. But, there is a lot of football left to play in a deep conference, with every team having a puncher's chance. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nevada Dawg No. 12 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Yeah this PAC-12 season is certainly the most interesting and competitive in (my) memory, which goes back a long, long way! What the h-ll kind of interdimensional phenomenon happened to do what has transpired for the ole Conference of champions? At least she went out with a bang and not a whimper! Too bad the media deal wasn't being negotiated during this glorious last hurrah as the PAC would have undoubtedly received better terms. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 13 Share Posted October 20, 2023 How would the BCS rank Oregon heading into Week 8 of the 2023 season? What about old rankings, though? There is a popular account on Twitter/X that goes back to “an era when the Harris Interactive Poll was really important to college football,” and brings those rankings to the present day, though that may have been a time that is frustrating for some fans, particularly in Eugene. We’re talking about the BCS era, a time when there wasn’t a committee of voters who decided the final rankings each year, but rather a set of computers that calculated the final rankings based on numerous formulas that often led to convolution and controversy. Just for our entertainment, we wanted to look at how those BCS standings would look if there in practice today. Take a look... How would the BCS rank Oregon heading into Week 8 of the 2023 season? DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM How would things look if we brought back the BCS rankings for this season? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 14 Share Posted October 21, 2023 On 10/18/2023 at 10:27 AM, Jon Joseph said: I think Oregon will win a hard-fought game vs. the Utes. I whole heartily agree. Glad it isn't a night game and probably no Cam or Kuithe. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrJacksPlaidPants Moderator No. 15 Share Posted October 21, 2023 The Ducks lost in SLC to Utah in 2018 by a score of 25-32. The last team to win at Rice-Eccles was USC in 2020. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 16 Share Posted October 21, 2023 (edited) On 10/20/2023 at 8:50 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said: The Ducks lost in SLC to Utah in 2018 by a score of 25-32. The last team to win at Rice-Eccles was USC in 2020. Good house call Doc. It was 2016 when the Ducks last won in SLC. My bad. JH threw 4 TDs after halftime. 24-7 all-time vs. the Utes. 9-7 in SLC. The last Utah home loss to a Pac-12 team was vs. USC in 2020. Often wrong, but never in doubt. Unless a good Doctor is on the scene to save me. Thank you, Sir. Edited October 21, 2023 by Jon Joseph 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
