Penix ... a Fatal Flaw Exposed?

[Duckster]

By almost any standard, Michael Penix is an elite deliverer of the football. Time and again I watched him thread the needle into almost impossible throwing windows. They were the types of throws that had pro scouts drooling. But after watching last nights game I'm wondering if many of those same scouts are having second thoughts about investing significant draft capital to acquire his services at the next level.

 

Now granted, pressure changes everything ... and Michigan was masterful last night at applying constant pressure. Their ability to dominate with their defensive front was arguably the story of the game. But what surprised me was Penix's response to that pressure.

 

His pocket presence throughout the night was shaky at best. He missed some easy throws early, even without significant pressure, and he rarely proceeded thru his progressions. Replay, on numerous occasions, would show wide open receivers and vast passing lanes downfield that Penix completely missed. As the game progressed, things got worse. Unable to maintain vision downfield he would lock on to his first read and the force the ball into double and triple coverage. The interception to open the third quarter was an egregious example.

 

The question becomes whether this was a one-off and just a bad night, or is Penix not an elite processor who has trouble seeing the field and making the proper reads under pressure. And be assured, the defensive pressure at the next level will be as, or even more intense. I haven't seen enough of Penix's games to make this call, but I do know that the NFL is littered with guys that came into the league with rare arm talent but failed miserably as starters. 

 

 After last night, I'm wondering if Penix is just another one of those guys?

[kirklandduck]

We've actually seen this over the course of the season: Penix doesn't do well under pressure.  See the ASU and OSU games.  When he's well protected he's able to throw some uncannily accurate darts to receivers, with good distance to boot.  But he's only done that in a clean pocket and time to read the field.  As soon as the pocket collapses he kind of freaks out and goes all wonky with his decision making and accuracy...I'm very sure NFL scouts have noticed this even before Michigan game.

[David Marsh]

He has had some big big time receivers to throw to. 

 

Odunze alone was able to just make plays on the ball. I think that's a massive part of Penix's success that he could just throw a 50-50 ball... Or worse... A 40-60 (def advantage ball) and Odunze would just get it what felt like every time. 

 

Penix is good... But I honestly think his receivers were better. 

[GangGreen2]

Michigan was really able to get Penix uncomfortable and out of rhythm.  They have an excellent pass rush, as well as terrific discipline and athleticism in the secondary, with tight coverage.

 

Penix's long distance throws were really 'off' last night (too high, wrong side of the receiver, etc.), and he had some plays where a receiver was open, but he didn't make the right read (threw to a covered receiver/into coverage instead).

 

You can be a quick processor, but when a defense can speed you up or get you off platform, it is the rare QB that can compensate for that.  And Penix wasn't able to last night.

 

I think he is an excellent QB, but against an elite pass rush and secondary, he wasn't able to elevate his game last night.  Hats off to Michigan's D.

[Steven A]

On 1/9/2024 at 4:40 PM, GangGreen2 said:

I think he is an excellent QB, but against an elite pass rush and secondary, he wasn't able to elevate his game last night. 

I am not sure anyone could have against that D.  I still think he is the best pure passer I've seen in years.

[AnotherOD]

On 1/9/2024 at 4:00 PM, kirklandduck said:

We've actually seen this over the course of the season: Penix doesn't do well under pressure.  See the ASU and OSU games.  When he's well protected he's able to throw some uncannily accurate darts to receivers, with good distance to boot.  But he's only done that in a clean pocket and time to read the field.  As soon as the pocket collapses he kind of freaks...

 

Yes.

[Washington Waddler]

     Penix entered that game fully aware what he was about to face, and still couldn’t rise to the occasion. Elite QBs know how to occupy the eye of the storm; in fact, they thrive on it. Didn’t see that quality in Penix.

[DuckFan93]

Other than performing poorly under pressure, Penix's other fatal flaw is fragility.   He is easily injured and broken.   In fact, last night's game may have hurt his NFL draft stock, seeing how he grimaced in the final 2 minutes of the game, being wrapped in that awful-looking tube in his mid-section.  And he wasn't really that badly hit in the game.   It will surely be worse in the pros.  Not good...

Edited January 10 by DuckFan93

[Duckster]

Watching our Bo these past years I became impressed by his ability to keep his eyes downfield while scrambling around and moving outside the pocket. It's a skill he obviously put work into and improved upon as his time at Oregon progressed. Hat's off to both Dillingham and Stein. With Brock Purdy's success at the NFL level (average arm/ elite processor) I could easily see some teams valuing Bo's skills over those of Penix.

[Charles Fischer]

Yep, I don't think Oregon is green with Penix-Envy now...

 

[Jon Joseph]

JJ McCarthy threw for 140 yards. Michigan ran the ball for 303 yards. When the game was in doubt a big UW gain was called back for holding. Michigan OL held all game long and was rarely called especially after getting the ball back from UW on its holding penalty and its OL holding on a key play.

 

The Michigan D is of course legit. But UW after a lot of close games and a 6 day turn around was not prepared for this game. And Grubb's play calling, not attacking the Michigan edges on short to medium throws was suspect. The final score was not representative of how close this game was in the 2nd and 3rd quarters,

 

Michigan's OL and running backs came through. Far better than at the end of the season. No QB under that kind of sustained pressure is going to light it up. And Dillon was missed not only in the run game but also in pass blocking. 

 

Hail to the Victors but with what Michigan loses this season and with the 2024 schedule ranking up I will not be surprised, especially if Jim and JJ go to see UM finish 3rd or lower in the B1G next season. In week 2 Michigan has an OOC game vs Texas in Ann Arbor that will be very interesting.

 

BTW, the UNLV QB USC was after signed with Georgia.

[DUCKED]

On 1/9/2024 at 4:00 PM, David Marsh said:

He has had some big big time receivers to throw to. 

 

Odunze alone was able to just make plays on the ball. I think that's a massive part of Penix's success that he could just throw a 50-50 ball... Or worse... A 40-60 (def advantage ball) and Odunze would just get it what felt like every time. 

 

Penix is good... But I honestly think his receivers were better. 

Huskies could not run the ball, which emboldened the Michigan line to come after Penix, who never once looked comfortable in the pocket and by the end of the game was hurting so badly he probably should not have been on the field.

 

Really, it was line play on both sides of the ball that doomed the Huskies.

[HDuck]

The UNLV QB flipped from Georgia to USC.

[Nautique Duck]

I’m surprised at some of these takes. Penix shredded us twice while under the gun, in the face of pretty steady pressure. He can make throws with a pass rush in his face. 
 

He did the same to Texas last week. 
 

What he can’t do is hit those throws when he is hurt. He was injured, guys, plain and simple. 
 

We injured him toward the end of our first game against him this year, and he was not himself for the next several games, including missing throws he normally makes (Identical to the second half of the  NC game). 
 

Unfortunately for us, he had enough weeks for his ribs to heal up before the conference championship, and without Jordan Burch, we didn’t have enough pressure to get to him and rough him up a bit, so he could pick apart our secondary again.

 

He was healed up or the lidocaine shot worked a bit better for that game than it did at half time of the NC game. 
 

When the writing was on the wall, he definitely tried to let the world know through grimacing and limping and grabbing his side that he was hurt. Something he had refused to do when he still winning and competing. But once it was over, had to make sure we knew the reason (excuse). 
 

 

[kirklandduck]

On 1/9/2024 at 6:53 PM, Duckster said:

Watching our Bo these past years I became impressed by his ability to keep his eyes downfield while scrambling around and moving outside the pocket. It's a skill he obviously put work into and improved upon as his time at Oregon progressed. Hat's off to both Dillingham and Stein. With Brock Purdy's success at the NFL level (average arm/ elite processor) I could easily see some teams valuing Bo's skills over those of Penix.

I saw the same characteristic in Vernon Adams.  He and Bo not only thrive under pressure but I think they love it because they're gamers, they want to be in those situations.  Definitely ice in their veins!

[kirklandduck]

On 1/9/2024 at 9:55 PM, Nautique Duck said:

I’m surprised at some of these takes. Penix shredded us twice while under the gun, in the face of pretty steady pressure. He can make throws with a pass rush in his face. 
 

He did the same to Texas last week. 

Did an injury affect his performance?  Maybe.  But OBD and Texas didn't pressure him nearly as much as Michigan did.  In particular, Texas often only had 1 defender successfully penetrate the pocket, which Penix evaded easily.  Harbaugh had multiple defenders coming at him successfully from multiple directions all game long.  I think something like 16 or 17 out of 50 plays had QB pressures...by the 4th quarter he was constantly looking over his shoulder wishing he had grown eyes in the back of his head.  

[David Marsh]

On 1/9/2024 at 9:55 PM, Nautique Duck said:

I’m surprised at some of these takes. Penix shredded us twice while under the gun, in the face of pretty steady pressure. He can make throws with a pass rush in his face. 

Oregon also failed to get consistent pass rush on him. I feel that was a a major flaw in Lanning and co's game.plan against the Huskies. 

 

If they schemed up some better pass rush and managed the line of scrimmage better those games end differently. 

[mikethehiker]

It's my observation that Penix was playing hurt most of the 2nd half of the season after the 1st Duck game.  There was a clear drop in performance after the initial injury.  He held it together for Oregon and Texas, but it doesn't take much to get hit the right way to aggravate a serious injury.  Penix looked and played as if the next hit he took could have been his last play which would have gave the game to Michigan.

 

Agree that our Nix was more effective under pressure this year and has proven to be more durable, but Penix has been the better pure passer making the more difficult throws all season.  Unfortunately for him, the long list of injuries may affect his draft position a bit.

[Autzen Magic]

On 1/9/2024 at 10:04 PM, David Marsh said:

Oregon also failed to get consistent pass rush on him. I feel that was a a major flaw in Lanning and co's game.plan against the Huskies. 

 

If they schemed up some better pass rush and managed the line of scrimmage better those games end differently. 

I believe the Ducks D regularly put Penix in peril during the first game.  The second game I was yelling at my TV “If you’re going to blitz, you’ve got to get there!”  I have not studied the reason for the different results, but I assume UW adjusted their protection.  
 

Like others, I also believe that the Ducks D injured Penix’s midsection (Ribs?) and he never fully recovered and he aggravated the injury during the championship game.  He couldn’t afford to stand in the pocket and take a hit. 
 

All of that aside, Penix and Andrew Luck were the 2 best quarterbacks I have seen throw the deep ball in tight windows. 
 

My $.02. 

[MikeJ]

I agree completely Nautique Duck, and Burch going down really hurt us in the championship game.

[David Marsh]

On 1/9/2024 at 11:09 PM, Autzen Magic said:

I believe the Ducks D regularly put Penix in peril during the first game.  The second game I was yelling at my TV “If you’re going to blitz, you’ve got to get there!”  I have not studied the reason for the different results, but I assume UW adjusted their protection.  
 

Like others, I also believe that the Ducks D injured Penix’s midsection (Ribs?) and he never fully recovered and he aggravated the injury during the championship game.  He couldn’t afford to stand in the pocket and take a hit. 
 

All of that aside, Penix and Andrew Luck were the 2 best quarterbacks I have seen throw the deep ball in tight windows. 
 

My $.02. 

Burch went down early in the second game and that really hurt our pass rush I feel... he got a lot better in Lanning's D by the end of the season than he was by mid season. 

[Dave23]

Penix didn't look right from the beginning, the whole team came out with a deer in the headlights look. Hard to win a big time game when you take the first quarter off, kind of like what the ducks did in the PAC-12 championship. 

 

I've often wondered if playing in a dome affects the QBs. In basketball it's very common for players to have off shooting nights in large domes when they're used to playing in small gyms. If memory serves me right Bo hasn't looked as good throwing in games in  domes. In the Georgia Dome and Allegiant Stadium his throws were shaky to start the game.

 

I haven't watched a lot of Washington games but Penix was missing some very easy throws at the start of the game.

Edited January 10 by Dave23
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[HDuck]

There was an interesting column in today's Athletic about how the Michigan D stymied Penix.  They were able to bring pressure using 4 down linemen, and would drop a 5th guy into coverage which rattled Penix who didn't have enough time to account for the extra defender in receiver territory.   That scenario was as compared to many of UW's earlier opponents having to use 5 guys at the line instead of 4.  Not going to go into all the details here that The Athletic column included.   But, without their best running back UW could not make UM pay the price for dropping the 5th guy which was also a factor.  Bottom line, UM had statistically the No. 1 defense this season, and those 4 guys at the line of scrimmage were a big reason.

 

I was surprised watching the game because I felt Penix was really good this season in getting the ball out of his hand quickly.  But, if receivers need more time to get open, or never get open, and he was also facing pressure to put him on his butt, I can see why several balls were off target.