Schedules Matter and Oregon Has the Short End of the 2024 Scheduling Stick

[Jon Joseph]

In 2024, college football has four (4) Power Conferences. The ACC, plus Notre Dame, the Big 10, the B12, and the SEC. The Big 10 and the SEC are considered to be the Power 2.

 

One P4 team in 2024, and only one, the Oregon Ducks, plays eight (8) games in a row against P4 competition (all B1G games) without an Off Week. In this eight-in-a-row gauntlet, the Ducks will play against 5 teams that went bowling in 2023, including NY6 bowl team Ohio State, and Playoff champion Michigan. And instead of having 8 home games as do Michigan and Ohio State, with Texas Tech off the board in favor of a road game at Oregon State the week before Oregon's first idle week, the Ducks will play 7, not 8, regular season games at home.

 

Forget about 'steel sharpens steel' and the other rhubarbs that discount the impact of a team's schedule in college football, One team that played 9 conference games and only one, Michigan, won a BCS title or a 4-team playoff title. In the last 3 seasons' playoffs bound Michigan had the advantage of playing a lightweight from the B1G West. In 2024, the B1G goes divisionless. The opponent in the 2024 B1G champ game will be the real deal.

 

8 in a row versus 8 B1G teams is a huge ask. It's a huge ask for any team to make it through a slate like this without suffering a few critical injuries. And if Oregon makes the Playoff as an at-large team, that will mean 3 games in a row vs. top-drawer opponents (a 5th-seeded Oregon would likely have the G5 12 seed in the 1st round) before the champ game in Atlanta on 1/20/25. Win the B1G champ game in Oregon's 13th game of the season and Oregon will still have to win two games against the CFB cream of the crop to make it to the Champ game.

 

Since being invited to join the B1G, Oregon's AD has participated in every B1G meeting attended by B1G ADs including meetings held before the 2024 schedule was finalized. I know that I have been tough on Rob in the past but this, I just don't get it. This is not how any officer should treat his troops. 

 

The only B1G team close to this kind of schedule difficulty in 2024 is USC with 7 in a row vs. P4 competition.

 

Welcome to the B1G and have a nice day. Ryan Day has a far easier schedule in front of him and his Buckeyes.

 

It is of course what it is and I am thrilled to be going B1G, but 8 in a row is going to be a tough row to hoe.

[Grandpa Duck]

We need to take advantage of being deep and rest players whenever possible, just as DL’s staff has been doing.  

[chrisjenn99]

Run the table and leave no doubt!

[kirklandduck]

The one silver lining is that the first 4 games are patsies then they get their first bye week.  That's 5 weeks for Dillon Gabriel to practice against opponents and get used to Stein's offense before heading into that gauntlet.

[Haywarduck]

I thought college initiation hazing rituals were frowned upon? I guess the BIG college football fraternities hazing practices are alive and well.

 

We better take them like a man this year or we might get it worse next year. 'Thank you may I have another, I mean 8 straight!' 'Also thank you for giving us a week off before we take it out on the dawgs!'

[Duxster]

The schedule is brutal. On the bright side, the only back-to-back road games are Oregon State and UCLA. Those are west coast trips with a bye week in between. The scheduling gurus could have made both Michigan and Maryland road games and then the travel would have been killer. 

[MicroBurst61]

With a schedule like that and a twelve team playoff next year; that is how you get into those playoffs with three losses vs two.  (Not! that I'm saying OBD will lose that many)  A "lighter" schedule would preclude that.

 

Injuries to key personnel, especially down the stretch, is more of a concern for me running through that gauntlet.  A major concern ten years ago but with the depth we have/are developing, hopefully will minimize any impacts of said injuries.

 

Now if the selection committee will start rewarding conferences playing 9 conference games and penalize the "one" playing 8 conference games, then losses incurred, regardless of strength of schedule, will be on a more even playing field going into the post season selections.

 

But WE all know that conference has had their "dirty lil thumbs" on the scale of college football since the beginning of the BCS era through today.  So I won't be holding my breathe. 

 

Lanning and company are just going to have to "prove out" and show that they TRULY are elite and master roster builders.  They do that and we are in for some outstanding football, year in and year out in the "new" B1G, regardless of each years strength of schedule.

 

Can't wait to find out!  Go Ducks!

 

[Jon Joseph]

Duxster, great take on the OR ST followed by the UCLA game.

 

The B1G designed the schedules through 2028 so no team would have to travel 2 weeks in a row from the East to the West coasts and vice versa without an idle week between trips. But traveling to Michigan, home for Maryland, and then travel to Wisconsin is a tough ask.

[Charles Fischer]

Jon, you are quite right about us getting hosed; the B1G gets marque games with Oregon, gets us for half-price, and then gets to set the schedule against us?  Feels like Pac-12 Refs!

 

 

But I think Oregon will make the B1G  jump

better than UCLA...

[Jon Joseph]

Nuts to the Bruins! Come on Man! Floor-dropping funny!

[2002duck]

I think you guys are overestimating how good Michigan will be next year. The schedule is fairly friendly to Oregon.

[Jon Joseph]

The schedule is ranked the 13th most difficult in the nation by ESPN's SP+. Other B1G teams with the most difficult 2024 schedules: No. 2 USC, No. 3 NW, No. 5 Purdue, No. 8 UW, No. 12 UCLA, No. 15 Michigan State.

 

9 games vs. teams that went bowling in 2023 including NY6 bowl participant Ohio State and the two teams that played for the 2023/24 CFB championship. Ohio State in the preseason AP Poll is likely to be ranked N0. 2. Despite Harbaugh's departure, Michigan will likely be in the top 10, at least in the top 15. UW will be ranked and Wisconsin and Boise could be ranked. Michigan and Ohio State both play 8 home games; the Ducks, 7. 

 

The game at Michigan will be the Ducks 6th game in a row without a break. Oregon has played in Ann Arbor in September but not in November. 

 

The 2024 schedule is extremely difficult. Oregon will get every opponent's best shot. Michigan loses a lot on O but check out the guys on D coming back to play for Moore. No portal exodus in Ann Arbor. Michigan at home is a very dangerous opponent, especially in November.