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A Split is on the Horizon. Where is College Football Going?

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You may have read from a prior article of mine that there is an NCAA champion of basketball, of baseball, of every college competitive sport except football. The NCAA does not recognize a football champion. But it should. Even Mr. FishDuck agreed with me when I pulled him from his favorite crypto sports betting site in SafeHamsters-that a football champion ...

 

FISHDUCK.COM

You may have read from a prior article of mine that there is an NCAA champion of basketball, of baseball, of every college competitive sport...

 

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This subject is dizzying to say the least. But, the shoe has dropped and there is no going back. Intercollegiate sports are NOT just for bragging rights anymore. 1984 made sure of that. 2014 took it to the next level and 2022 NIL was a body blow knock down. Allowing massive conference realignment is finishing it off.

 

The NCAA means nothing. I'm not saying that there doesn't need to be an oversight committee, but that the NCAA is bloated in their thinking and is fighting for relevancy. They are dying or at the very least, going second tier. Its football period. And, the NCAA doesn't have the hole card of rejecting schools other sports that one might think. If the Bigs take their (football) and go home???

 

Outside of Basketball, college sports will be relegated to intramural immediately. Just pick any sport and run the numbers. Do they produce a balance sheet in the black? Most, if not all the others, are simply negative funds producers. It doesn't matter whats best for students. If it did, we wouldn't be in this situation we are today. Quickly, Schools will reevaluate whether a sports program makes sense and then run the Title 9 numbers. The NCAA would be gutted within a couple of years to an office in a strip mall in Northern Minnesota in a town Noone has ever heard of. 

 

The NCAA is arrogant. But, they should be wide eyed petrified. This entire story smacks of the NCAA being dragged kicking and screaming to the table of the BIGS. The student, (SEC and B1G) is about to be the master. The NCAA better be careful or they will become the NIT in a hurry.

Edited by 1Funduck
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There are many percieved problems with what is going on, but what we are seeing is progress. What is progress, a movement toward a destination, a destination even further from what we are comfortable with. This isn't just football, it is everywhere.

 

I just think this is just another step where many of us, myself included, are saying get off my lawn. From social media, to the Tesla truck, to college football, to many other things I don't like the direction things are going. Problem is there going that direction no matter what I do.

 

I have come to the conclusion those in charge, and those younger than me are just going to have to live with it. I just have to tolerate it, and be happy with what I have. I can tolerate it, and am happy with what I have. Doesn't mean I don't sometimes wanna say.....

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Some very interesting perspectives in this article that gives an alternate view to the semi-professional league being bantered about.  The problem?  It would be the NCAA running it.  But the alternative of having the media companies control things is even worse, IMHO.

 

More to ponder--THANKS Mike!

Mr. FishDuck

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Thanks, Mike. Wherever CFB is going it is likely to get there sooner than we think.

 

BAMAHAMMER.COM

College football is changing so rapidly, predicting what will happen in the next five years is an impossible task. It feels as though fundamental change is inev

 

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In the end, the conferences that control the majority of the media money are changing college football, and thus college sports.  They have “cherry picked” top teams to expand their football media markets, which further expands their wallets. 

 

Universities that consistently receive higher football media contract payouts win. A level playing field has never existed, but now the gap is really insurmountable. 

 

If we are left with two major football conferences, who governs the money grab? Will that governing body, which is starting to look like the conferences themselves, assess strict penalties for rules infractions to members of their own conference?


Money is changing college sports, will we like who it becomes? 

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With all the flack the NCAA has received over the years people tend to forget their PRIMARY mission was always to promote, as fairly AND equally as they possibly could, the Student Athlete in ALL sports, and was always more focused on the Student aspect of that mission.

 

Massive television contracts,  seven figure coaching salaries, paying players as employees, a select few college sports being viewed more as professionals than amateurs, trying to satisfy all the college chancellors and athletic directors who all had different views of "amateur" athletics;  doomed the effectiveness of the NCAA.  Essentially "money" did an end run through and around their restrictions and here we are in this chaos today.

 

Granted the NCAA could have evolved their positions but having the responsibilities of ALL college athletics, it was going to happen way slower than the "money merchants" of the high profile sports, were willing to wait for.  So they now have NO real power or control, and people Not concerned about the student part of College athletics will continue to "tap" into the huge amounts of money that was previously kept at bay through the moniker of amateur athletics.

 

So the "cat is out of the bag".  NCAA college athletics is no longer an even playing field.  Reminds me of the Olympic athletes back in the 80's through the early 90's.  We were constantly reminded how the "American Athlete" competing was an amateur.  Training as an amateur before and after work, school, or both.  Sacrificed living conditions, social interactions, lived in "student poverty", and was presented as making these sacrifices to be the best in the world.  This was held up as a reflection of the USA doing amateur athletics the "honorable" way vs. the "amatuer-professionals" of the eastern block athletes.  We, here, now, are doing the same with our student "amateur" athletes.  So much for equity in all of college sports.

 

Basically until the sports cultural shift in the mid nineties the NCAA was a relevant organization and actually did their jobs as was required.  Caused a lot of butthurt people who saw the restrictions as a deterrent to "growth" in both exposure and potential revenue generation and they took all the "legal" steps to get what they wanted, over what had been the acceptable status quo.  The overall effects and reprecussions will not be known, or even realized, for many many years to come.

 

NCAA was a regulating body that did not evolve with the warning signs that arose and has led to a significantly weaker entity.  My experience and learning has shown that Any large-scale human endeavour NEEDS some sort of regulation and control or that said endeavor will most likely empower a few over the many.  We are currently at that point now, and what if any regulating and control will arise from the turmoil will remain to be seen.  (Bet it ends up in Congress or Sup. Crt  in the next few years.)

 

Point is that the line is now forever blurred between amateur and professional and is only going to get more convoluted.  This makes the NCAA a nonviable organization for it was not created with this "blur" in mind.  Will this lead to a better world in college athletics?  Guess only time will tell.  However I see more issues than not.  (Even if they are "backburnered" as to not reflect poorly on the changes happening).

 

Go Oregon Athletics.

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Thanks, Mike. Fun to ponder, no doubt.

 

The NCAA, especially after Federal Judge Corker ruled against the NCAA last week and subject to final determination of the matter, has no leverage it can apply if the Big Boys want to play in their football sandbox and other sports sandboxes. The NCAA's basketball inventory that it takes to market would have far less value without the 18-team B1G and 16-team SEC participating.

 

As you suggested, both conferences could expand to 20 teams. The B1G takes in Notre Dame and Kansas. The SEC adds UVA, UNC, Clemson, and FSU. If the 2 conferences decided to host post-season events on their own, would the money to be made from a Power 2 football and basketball championship be significantly less without Liberty in the football playoff field and without Alcorn State in the basketball field? 

 

The NCAA's continuing support of the student-athlete model has been stiff-armed in court. Millions of member dollars have been spent on worthless litigation. Now, Judge Corker has advised the NCAA that it cannot enforce its own NIL rules. The NCAA's Charlie Baker sought protection from Congress for the NCAA and like in court, Charlie was stiff-armed by Congress. Based upon the Supreme Court's 9-0 decision in favor of Alston and against the NCAA, continuing to litigate the NIL Case in Federal Court would be a boon for the lawyers and a waste of NCAA members' money.

 

Spot On in citing the case that took away the NCAA's exclusive CFB broadcast rights in 1984. The media foot was in the door and it was every conference for itself thereafter. Conferences that made correct business decisions thrived; see the SEC. Conferences that made bad business decisions died; see the Pac-12. Thus be it ever in big business. CFB and Men's CBB are big business. 

 

I doubt that Tony Petitti and Greg Sankey will look to the NCAA for help. Both know this is a lost cause. On the other hand, both appreciate having the NCAA around to manage post-season sporting events but I don't believe that the two men any longer want the Pac-2 to have the same voting power as Ohio State and Alabama; especially, when it comes to the Money Ball sports.

 

Thanks again for the great take and the great ponder points.

 

 

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Judge Corker is one of about 860 US District Court judges.  My sense is his "decision" will have review and probably shouldn't be considered permanent precedent.

 

Another topic for review is athlete wages.  So, here is an interesting link:

 

WWW.SPORTICO.COM

It's increasingly likely that college athletes will be recognized as employees and unions. Universities then face hard legal and economic choices.

 

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Wherever CFB is headed, Oregon will have the money to compete at the highest level. And will be competing at the highest level. A level that has little relationship with the 'student-athlete' of yesterday.

 

WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM

College football is changing -- for the better. But there's 1 key to its new path. Plus: Ranking SEC nonconference schedules, Kalen DeBoer's key attribute and more.

 

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H Duck, I hear you. But what have you (and the NCAA) seen from the Supremes that convinces you that Corker's final decision will be overturned? Based on the language in the ruling that enjoins the NCAA, what new facts or information will the NCAA be able to produce to change the judge's current opinion? 

 

How much support will the NCAA have from its member schools if it decides to appeal a final decision in favor of the states of Tennessee and Virginia, the plaintiffs in the case before Corker? Why would any SEC school or ACC school support an appeal? Why would Petitti and B1G programs support an appeal? Because the G5 doesn't have the money to compete at the NIL level with the Power 2.   

 

The separation Mike addressed in his excellent article has happened. The marketplace has caused it to happen and IMO, there is no going back.

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If, as I expect, Jon's suggestion of an NFL sponsored 36 teams comes about, or 40 treams as I suggest, will NFL-Lite become greatly different from AAA baseball?  Personally, I prefer to watch the college amateur, student-athlete, regular season football games over the NFL regular season games, Justin Herbert excepted.  

 

I can't even name a AAA baseball team, and, as far as I know, have never watched that league, or any of the other minor league baseball games on TV.  I've been to several Eugene Emerald games, and a few of the Springfield Drifter wood-bat games, so it's not about whether I like baseball.  As a high school player I was better at baseball than the other two major sports, but played, or played at all of them.  At baseball, I could hit, field and I could run, but was left out of the other important part.  No arm.  Second base was taken by a team mate with a better glove than mine.  So, I played right field.

 

Still, I have watched, both in person and on TV, more than 10 times as much college football than any other major sport, unless golf is a major sport.  To me, college football is greatly different from the pro game.

 

I often think about the experience of Chip Kelly when he brought the Ducks his philosophy that the team with better conditioned players would win the game in the 4th quarter.  He got the Duck players to buy in and bust their collective butt getting into shape.  Sure enough, it worked.  When he took that idea to the Eagles it worked there too, for about a year and a half.  Then the pros quit working at it.  

 

My fear is that once what used to be college football goes fully professional it's connection to the university environment will wane.  Student sections and great bands will drift away.  When that happens, just watch the minor league football TV ratings go to wherever minor league baseball ratings are.

 

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Again, 115 years of an illegal mandate the NCAA has been carrying around, and finally enough money to call it out legally.

 

If fairness restricts earnings of players on the whole, the NCAA has to butt out.

 

They can't regulate NIL, salaries and benefits in any way going forward.

 

The conferences are engaged in business and the players are the employees.

 

Any hope of the NCAA wielding a determination of the path forward from here is a pipe dream.

 

If you don't like it, then harass you US congressperson to put into law an exception to the Sherman Anti Trust act for college athletics. NCAA has been trying to get that done, but getting no traction whatsoever.

Edited by Solar
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This has been a lopsided and immoral story ever since the very first game was put on television. The TV execs made a fortune each Saturday putting a game on and then they enjoyed Jan1st Rose Bowl where they made a fortune by promoting the game After the Parade. Which player received a check from the University, NCAA, or TV execs? Yeah, not one of them.

 

If U.S. Steel took the steel made and sold it but told the 'Volunteer' workers that they couldn't enjoy some proceeds and also that they would be punished for getting tips because the product was so good, every one of us would be in an uproar!! All these institutions raked these kids over the coals with a base salary of a College Education. Each year 85 kids get 'paid' basically a $30-$40,000.00 salary with all that is involved with their education. $40,000x 80 is $3.2 million. The entire team combined gets about 1/2 of what the Head Coach takes in each year. Thats disgusting! 

 

Whats the annual proceeds for football alone? In 2022, according to "Oregon listed as top revenue earning Pac-12 school during 2022 fiscal year" dated June 14th 2023, Oregon football alone, generated over $80 million. The total revenue across all sports Oregon was $153,510,555.00. Total expenses were $140,565,297. Are you telling me that all programs are basically running net $0? Uh, no. 

 

Football is a money machine. Every program sans Football and Basketball is in the RED! Maybe there is an outlier in there but its football and its little brother basketball....period. So, if the coaches garner in the neighborhood of $10 million or so, this leaves an avalanche of cash to the university. And I hate it when these universities say it costs $40,000/yr to send these kids to school. There is some fuzzy math going on when they only take a seat in a lecture room. At some point, the prorated cost of a 'student athlete' isnt really an expense but a line item expense that is only for accountants to shuffle cash around. 

 

These kids produce the product that the fan in the stands, or watching on their 80" screens at home, are paying for. Getting a college education in exchange for being on the team was appropriate when it started, but the NCAA didn't keep up. They kept all the cash generated and split it with the schools. Just one problem, they left the kids behind in giving them their fair share. The NCAA and the schools have, in essence, held these kids captive and robbed them of their fair share. Thats why NIL, through the actions of a lawsuit, has been established. 

 

How does one fix it? Its more simple than those slimey money grubbers at the NCAA can fathom. The entire NCAA should have negotiated rights for all players involved. Everyone gets a base salary, education guaranteed for as long as you are enrolled and actively pursuing a degree. 8 years? So what? Then its profit sharing. A certain percentage makes sense. Bonuses for the team that makes it to a Bowl/Conference Championship/CFB Playoffs/Natty. Collective agreement like the NFL. The NCAA would have been able to keep all the conferences intact and tradition would have reigned. Instead, we have the BIGS cherry picking the name brand schools and 80 schools along with their entire Athletic departments getting left out. 

 

Its just so disgusting and pathetic what the NCAA has done. Short sighted and greedy to say the least.

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People seem to forget that before the days of NIL....the estimated value a couple of years ago of the education and services provided at Oregon for the football players was nearly 2 million dollars over their total time at Oregon.

 

FISHDUCK.COM

Do Pac-12 football players really get it? While that may seem to be insulting to them, it is a question that many of us who do the donating and buying of…

 

Nearly two million in value?  You know, that doesn't suck.

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Mr. FishDuck

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I'm going to have to push back a touch on that Fish. These kids are getting in the door to the education by 'Investing' in their bodies prior to the interview and getting on the team. Its expected that if you 'Hire' them for their abilities, which they received through hard work at their families expense, then they should be paid for their contribution. They have received their 'training/education' over the last several years. You cant sell the game without having a team of players take the field. Those players need to be high quality athletes for the fan to pony up $500 for a season ticket. 1984 had a lot of empty Autzen stadium seats. Why? Because we sucked as a team and as players overall.

 

The school made money when the product on the field improved. 

 

A college education gives the average kid a fighting chance to make even more than the average HS grad. Ill give you that. But, why does the kid make more with that education? Because the job they get is with a company that needs that education to facilitate their complex business so as to make $million$. The company needs that kids education to make a fortune. The schools need highly trained physiques to produce a product that outdoes their competition. If a kid graduates Summa Cum Laude, should he be rewarded for how hard he worked and his achievement?

 

The kid worked hard to offer his resume of his body. He gets the base salary but should be rewarded for the product he produces. Every business does this. Sadly, the NCAA doesn't want to pay these legal military aged adults what they are worth. They aren't kids, as that would be child labor and HS sports is another hot topic that is going to bubble to the too and soon, but they are adults. 

 

An interesting and true story; my grandfather had his own seafood business. All of his kids, my aunts and uncles, worked the family business from the rime they could walk. Everybody did something. Then came the grandkids. As a young teenager, I was out working one day and my uncle said he was going to pay me piece work. I was incentivized through hard work ethics, to stick and stay and make it pay. Instead of playing, I went straight to work after school. When I received my check, my grandfather caught wind and about had a heart attack. He said " no kid is worth that kind of money. He isnt taking care of a family". My uncle quipped back, " if that kid is going to work like a man then you should pay him like a man". 

 

My uncle was making money off my work. I would have been overjoyed with a couple hundred dollars. But, I outworked other men at the job site. He saw my value and noticed the value to his business. I worked harder and I remember that to this day. And by the way, I never went to college and am financially independent with 15+ years before SSI retirement. University educations have their place, but most kids these days lack the common sense and the work ethic to get out of bed before 6:00am and work till sunset if need be. Those kids on the field have already proven they have the intestinal fortitude to make it. An education, or lack of one, wont stop them. Most are going to succeed.

 

One other thing: Calling these young adults, Student Athletes is a correct term but skews the idea of the individual in the minds of the beholder. We tend to think of Student Athletes as kids, children, in our minds. They are young, this is true. They aren't mentally and emotionally fully developed, this is also true. But, society has classified them as adults. They can move out from under the care of the it parents and can financially provide for themselves. They are legally responsible for any and all actions that they commit. 

 

A Student is simply one who studies a topic. They are young, true, but they aren't children. They are adults and should be paid as such and fairly.

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If the NCAA were a fish it would be a flounder. Much like the pac 12 too 2.

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No where good. Unfortunately. 

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SATURDAYBLITZ.COM

FBS college football will go from three independent programs to two following the report by Pete Thamel of ESPN on Monday that the UMass Minutemen will become a

 

Another take in agreement with friend Mike Whitty. It's time for CFB at the G5 and P4 levels to kiss the NCAA Goodbye.

Edited by Jon Joseph
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