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Charles Fischer

Moving to the B1G: Feeling Different NOW About it?

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I am curious if others have gone through the same stages on moving to the B1G as I have?  (I am sure you have seen my words of each stage written in this forum)

 

1. I WANT the Pac-12 to survive....I do NOT want Oregon to play in the "Truck-Stop" conference.

2. OK, I see the doubling of revenue and audience size...but this is WRONG. A century thrown away...this is WRONG, but I will make the best of it.

3. Boy, the Pac-12 deal is looking worse, and the B1G overall benefit is surprising me on the upside.  I wish the Pac-12 would work, but Oregon will be OK.

4. Geez, it seems that only if you are in the Big-2 conferences...will you survive and thrive.

5. Wow, the increase in audience and visibility for the Ducks is even more exciting--this is going to be cool to be in a Super-Conference.

6. I can't wait to be a part of it all! Five TV stations and two streaming platforms..."The Duck" is going to be everywhere!

7. I am SO RELIEVED to be part of B1G, and with what Lanning is doing?  We are going to kick-butt. I am good with it!

 

giphy.gif

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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Very similar, though I would add a “stage 8” as things continue to unfold nation wide, getting an initial half-share with all the juice we’re bringing while UCLA brings nothing to football with an immediate full share irks me a bit today. I guarantee our tv ratings will blow away UCLA’s, LA market or not. We’re a top-10 brand getting half of what Rutgers gets…UNC will not get a half-share when the ACC melts down.

 

I get that timing is everything in business and am very glad we’re in, but it does irk me a bit. Hindsight. 

 

What I’m really looking forward to is moving away from theory and getting into the schedule and playing games. Basketball is going to be really interesting as well.

Edited by JabbaNoBargain
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On 5/17/2024 at 2:37 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

I get that timing is everything in business and am very glad we’re in, but it does irk me a bit.

Great point.  That is not fair, and especially so considering what the viewership will be in total by the end of the season.  You will note that I said nothing about my frustration with the Pig-2 stealing 300 million, as that will always irk me.  But we will be fine, and our upside is so vast...

 

The Pig-2 are celebrating, as

they know what they're doing...

giphy.gif

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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I guess I'm still a skeptic in some ways. Charles's point #1 still resonates with me. I have hated the Big-10 since I was about 10 years old (almost seven decades) and still do. For better or worse the Ducks are now in it so I will root for them to kick butt. This is do-able I feel with Lanning at the helm, but maybe not as quickly as many of you suspect. But, hey, maybe I am wrong.

 

Charles's point 4 also strikes a cord--and that's tragic for college football IMHO. At this point, it is impossible to know what transpires over the next decade, but if the glory is distributed only among the 34 members of the Power-2, the ole game I knew and loved is badly diminished. I would sure as heck hate to see 30-40% of Div-! teams give up the expensive sport of football because they have little of any chance of hoisting the big glass trophy, and for this reason, no one much cares about football any longer.

 

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I am no where as giddy about recent events as many Duck fans seem to be. 

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On 5/17/2024 at 10:25 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I am no where as giddy about recent events as many Duck fans seem to be. 

Because you are not in our spot.  You are at the top of CFB, crunching most who dare to step on the field with you.  You have the luxury of being nostalgic, having ‘Nattys, and thus can be gracious.

 

If you existed in a conference that was almost invisible to 80% of the population, and then guaranteed to be relegated to permanent lower status forever....you would welcome the move-out, the move-up, even without immediate success.

 

You have no idea how much I've realized the time difference has been real, and Oregon could be on the moon as far as most think in the eastern time zone.  We will be top-of-mind this year, as the team we will present will be a challenge to most.

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 5/17/2024 at 10:25 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

I guess I'm still a skeptic in some ways. Charles's point #1 still resonates with me. I have hated the Big-10 since I was about 10 years old (almost seven decades) and still do. For better or worse the Ducks are now in it so I will root for them to kick butt. This is do-able I feel with Lanning at the helm, but maybe not as quickly as many of you suspect. But, hey, maybe I am wrong.

 

Charles's point 4 also strikes a cord--and that's tragic for college football IMHO. At this point, it is impossible to know what transpires over the next decade, but if the glory is distributed only among the 34 members of the Power-2, the ole game I knew and loved is badly diminished. I would sure as heck hate to see 30-40% of Div-! teams give up the expensive sport of football because they have little of any chance of hoisting the big glass trophy, and for this reason, no one much cares about football any longer.

 

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I am no where as giddy about recent events as many Duck fans seem to be. 

Some good points for sure. Would have been nice to see what an expanded playoff could have meant for distributing the glory about 10 years ago. Unfortunately, I think the 4-team playoff created a concentration of opportunity, that resulted in about 10 teams really having a shot over a 10 year period.


Ultimately, I believe there will probably be a new level of CFB that will have 2 divisions (rooted in the SEC and BIG), 48 - 64 teams in total. Those not in the top level will still play, this is just a recognition of reality, which will have them playing similar schools for championships.

 

This will not be entirely equitable…I can’t imagine a scenario where the SEC or B1G actually kick members out. So getting into one of the big 2 before the ACC B12 “downgrade” is huge.

Edited by JabbaNoBargain
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I was happy from the beginning of the move because of Oregon being a national brand and needed more of the exposure that the Pac directors weren't willing/able to give. As far as tradition goes, I could care less about any of the other schools.

 

Since I work with SO many Beavis and their attitudes are all the same. "We deserve the money" since you left the conference! Both Beavis and Butthead fans all think that Oregon should have taken them along to the B1G because "it's only right."

 

It's amazing how the move and Lanning and staff has already changed everyone's view of OBD and we haven't even started playing yet! Bring on the B1G show!!

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I lament the loss of the Pac-12 but once the LA schools announced their move to the B1G, the hand writing was on the wall. The Pac-12 had a horrible media deal on the table when the LA schools were expected to the part of the league. With them gone, the deal would have gotten worse. And there are no other "western" schools that could have been added to make up for the loss of the LA market.
 

Once the four SW schools left, the "Pac-6" would have struggled to add enough other strong schools to remain a power conference. IMO, staying in the Pac-6 was not an option and the notion that Oregon could thrive as an independent was wishful thinking. 

 

I quickly moved to #4 and then #7.

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Those of you who replied (either directly or indirectly) to my skepticism make some really good points. I know well the way the PAC-12 was barely visible to those east of the rocky mountains except at r\Rose Bowl time. And even then, many had to look to see who had won the conference out West. I remember lamenting the fact that Christian McCaffrey, IMHO the far and away best player in college football during his senior year, was snubbed for the Heisman because many voters had never seen him play. I do understand your sentiments!

 

But I also still fear for the future of college football. Can't help it; it is a legitimate concern to me. 

 

Now I'll promise to go mute on the subject and see how it all plays out.

 

Oh, as for being at the top of the college football heap- how recent that has been. My Dawgs had spent what seemed an eternity wandering the wilderness, every so often putting together a very good team that always faltered at some point, robbing themselves of a chance to grab the brass ring. Yes, I can breath easier these days knowing that the Dawgs have a coach that will put them in position to win it all, almost on an annual basis.
 

But actually winning it all is not as important as being in position to win it all if things break right. Oregon is not that far away from being in the same position, and that is why, I think, that many of you are quite all right with the move to the B1G. But, nevertheless, I will still miss the ole Pac-12 and its traditions.

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I say, enjoy the ride while you can.

 

College football is not done with its changes yet, and I'm sure we will bemoan them as they happen. 

 

But Charles, you pretty well summed it all up. Sad, disbelief, to surprise, and now elation.

And now, there will be no excuse for belittling our Ducks from east coast pundits. In fact, the early preseason polls show our Ducks getting plenty of love.

Would that have been the case if we were still Pac12?

 

Plus it will be great fun to see all these B1G teams in Autzen. Or always on TV.

 

I too get irked that we have to take less$$, but it's more then it would have been.

And the advantage to recruiting!

Great coaches. Great facilities. Top NIL deals. Great fan base. And without question, great competition and great exposure. 

 

Can't wait for season to start.

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I’ll miss Utah. If the conference genie granted me a “one team to go with wish” sorry bevis it's all Utes,

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Last August….Sources told ESPN that both schools will receive approximately $30 million annually when they join the league, a share that will increase by $1 million during the current media contract with Fox, NBC and CBS, which runs through the 2029-30 athletic season. They then would be able to receive full shares. The other Big Ten members are expected to receive more than $60 million annually from the new agreement this year. Previous Big Ten expansion additions Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland also did not receive full revenue shares immediately.

 

My add…what gets little ink are the other revenue sources which are 100 percent shares:  CFP payouts, NCAA Tournament payouts (expect women’s Tournament to go up too), bowl payouts, TV revenue from other non-3 networks airings.  There will be more B1G teams in the CFP and NCAA Tourneys than there would have been Pac10, Pac9, PacWhatever which adds to that revenue.  When detractors spout “half-shares” that really only applies to part of the total revenue pool.

 

Add…does anyone really believe that Oregon would have the level of season ticket sales in football for 2024 that it now has if it was a Pac10/9 schedule?  Could Oregon have raised ticket prices?  Would as many hotdogs and sodas be sold?  That, and more, are additional revenue streams that are not part of “half-shares.”

 

Travel?  Oregon has 3 football games in the Midwest.  How much more will that cost than the 3 or 4 (not counting UCLA trip) in the Pac10 that would have been incurred anyway?   The number of trips for some sports have been way overestimated based on inaccurate assumptions as well.  There are still 3 West Coast opponents, and some sports do not do weekly home-and-home schedules that require travel.

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Thanks, Charles, for the B1G subject to ponder and for the great comments.

 

Any doubts about the B1G move will be eliminated on 10/12/24 when the Buckeyes pay Puddles a visit in what could be the regular season game of the year. This game will be covered the entire week prior on a network that folks can find and watch. And without B1G membership would we see recruiting and portal picking like this?

 

Flying coach for a few years before moving up to First Class in 2031 is well worth the discounted 'ticket' price. Puddles caught the last Power 2 flight out and will no longer be buried on a loser network or a Left Coast afterthought. 

 

Vanquish the Vandals!

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On 5/17/2024 at 5:37 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

Very similar, though I would add a “stage 8” as things continue to unfold nation wide, getting an initial half-share with all the juice we’re bringing while UCLA brings nothing to football with an immediate full share irks me a bit today. I guarantee our tv ratings will blow away UCLA’s, LA market or not. We’re a top-10 brand getting half of what Rutgers gets…UNC will not get a half-share when the ACC melts down.

 

I get that timing is everything in business and am very glad we’re in, but it does irk me a bit. Hindsight. 

 

What I’m really looking forward to is moving away from theory and getting into the schedule and playing games. Basketball is going to be really interesting as well.

Being in LA matters and Fox wanted 2 LA teams. Rutgers and Nebraska took less than a full share to go B1G. Maryland after litigating with the ACC, still paid an exit fee of $31,361,788.00. Nebraska paid the B12 $9M.

 

Oregon paid no exit fee. The stupid 'settlement' payment to the Pig-2 need not have happened. Oregon could have left the conference not just owing one-twelfth of the liabilities but with @$30M.

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On 5/18/2024 at 1:25 AM, Nevada Dawg said:

I guess I'm still a skeptic in some ways. Charles's point #1 still resonates with me. I have hated the Big-10 since I was about 10 years old (almost seven decades) and still do. For better or worse the Ducks are now in it so I will root for them to kick butt. This is do-able I feel with Lanning at the helm, but maybe not as quickly as many of you suspect. But, hey, maybe I am wrong.

 

Charles's point 4 also strikes a cord--and that's tragic for college football IMHO. At this point, it is impossible to know what transpires over the next decade, but if the glory is distributed only among the 34 members of the Power-2, the ole game I knew and loved is badly diminished. I would sure as heck hate to see 30-40% of Div-! teams give up the expensive sport of football because they have little of any chance of hoisting the big glass trophy, and for this reason, no one much cares about football any longer.

 

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I am no where as giddy about recent events as many Duck fans seem to be. 

A few guesses regarding CFB's future.

 

In 2031 the CFB 'playoff' will be a World Series between four to eight teams from the B1G and the SEC. As is the case in the NFL, there will be direct payment to players, plus the players retaining the right to market their own NIL. 

 

A direct payment salary cap will be in place as will restrictions on transfers as negotiated between the Power 2 conferences and a player's association. With these and other negotiated agreements, Congress will provide anti-trust and other protection from litigation.

 

The B1G and the SEC will have between 20 and 24 football-playing members. Schools such as Northwestern and Vandy may opt out of football but remain conference members for other sports. However, fewer non-revenue sports will be offered. 

 

The Power 2 conferences will regulate their own affairs free of the NCAA but will be able to participate in NCAA post-season tournaments.

 

Conference member revenue shares will not be equal, but based on playoff money earned, the amount invested in revenue-producing sports, and the eyeballs that watch a member team play, etc.

 

Oregon and UGA will be Leaders of the Pack.

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On 5/18/2024 at 2:35 AM, JabbaNoBargain said:

Some good points for sure. Would have been nice to see what an expanded playoff could have meant for distributing the glory about 10 years ago. Unfortunately, I think the 4-team playoff created a concentration of opportunity, that resulted in about 10 teams really having a shot over a 10 year period.


Ultimately, I believe there will probably be a new level of CFB that will have 2 divisions (rooted in the SEC and BIG), 48 - 64 teams in total. Those not in the top level will still play, this is just a recognition of reality, which will have them playing similar schools for championships.

 

This will not be entirely equitable…I can’t imagine a scenario where the SEC or B1G actually kick members out. So getting into one of the big 2 before the ACC B12 “downgrade” is huge.

I'm down with the continued concentration of teams but looking at the 2023 Nielson ratings for CFB games, 40 teams in the B1G and SEC would be more than enough. The 32 most watched on average CFB teams in 2023 are dominated by the SEC. Mississippi State has more viewers than the majority of the B12 teams, old and new.

 

Notre Dame and North Carolina make sense for the B1G to go to 20 and Clemson, FSU, NC State, and Miami could make dollars and sense for the SEC, but beyond 20 each there are not many viable candidates that would add financial value.  

 

Will programs like Cal, Stanford, Duke, and Vandy be able to carry the financial weight of competing at championship levels in football in particular? Will administrators at these schools be willing to bend academic requirements to accommodate portal transfers? 

 

With an AFL B1G and an NFL SEC and the two competing post-seasons based on results and not the vote of a committee, like the NFL why would need conference members with far lesser roster strength to beef up your record? 

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On 5/19/2024 at 2:26 PM, Flyin Vee said:

I’ll miss Utah. If the conference genie granted me a “one team to go with wish” sorry bevis it's all Utes,

I agree with the sentiment. But in 2023 more fans on average watched Mississippi State play football than watched the Utes. 

 

Oregon did not leave OSU and WSU behind. ESPN and Fox left them behind.

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After leadership failed the PAC 12 for far too many years, I accepted the move to the BIG 10 quickly.

 

To stay viable in collegiate sports currently costs the Ducks in excess of $130 million a year. Going down with the sinking wreckage of the PAC 12 was not a viable option. 
 

When billions of dollars are being paid for broadcasting rights, and salaries of coaches are starting to exceed $10 million per year, What possibly could go wrong? 
 

sigh….

 

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On 5/20/2024 at 8:31 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Puddles caught the last Power 2 flight out and will no longer be buried on a loser network or a Left Coast afterthought. 

AMEN Duck-Brother.

 

I'm sure the Pig-2 know

what they're doing....

giphy.gif

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 5/20/2024 at 9:20 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I'm down with the continued concentration of teams but looking at the 2023 Nielson ratings for CFB games, 40 teams in the B1G and SEC would be more than enough. The 32 most watched on average CFB teams in 2023 are dominated by the SEC. Mississippi State has more viewers than the majority of the B12 teams, old and new.

 

Notre Dame and North Carolina make sense for the B1G to go to 20 and Clemson, FSU, NC State, and Miami could make dollars and sense for the SEC, but beyond 20 each there are not many viable candidates that would add financial value.  

 

Will programs like Cal, Stanford, Duke, and Vandy be able to carry the financial weight of competing at championship levels in football in particular? Will administrators at these schools be willing to bend academic requirements to accommodate portal transfers? 

 

With an AFL B1G and an NFL SEC and the two competing post-seasons based on results and not the vote of a committee, like the NFL why would need conference members with far lesser roster strength to beef up your record? 

They don’t all make viable sense, but not all of this makes sense by any stretch. I think if they were being purely bottom line, then some teams would be getting cut and they’d go with a 32 team league that didn’t include Vanderbilt, etc.

 

I don’t think purely NFL lite is the way to go, so I’m guessing some programs like Utah will ultimately be included to balance out (if only a little) divisions geographically. For branding purposes, I think it needs to retain some of the charm of college football, which in my mind, needs to be at least 48 teams.
 

Any program that’s better than Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue, Vanderbilt, etc. could conceivably make the cut if those terrible football programs are being included.

 

I’m guessing that unless they cut teams, the super league/unholy alliance will be 60 teams.

Edited by JabbaNoBargain
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Posted (edited)
On 5/20/2024 at 2:30 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

They don’t all make viable sense, but not all of this makes sense by any stretch. I think if they were being purely bottom line, then some teams would be getting cut and they’d go with a 32 team league that didn’t include Vanderbilt, etc.

 

I don’t think purely NFL lite is the way to go, so I’m guessing some programs like Utah will ultimately be included to balance out divisions geographically. For branding purposes, I think it needs to retain some of the charm of college football, which in my mind, needs to be at least 48 teams.
 

Any program that’s better than Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue, Vanderbilt, etc. could conceivably make the cut if those terrible football programs are being included.

 

I’m guessing that unless they cut teams, the super league/unholy alliance will be 60 teams.

I get and respect your POV but what is the financial incentive for the B1G and SEC and ESPN and Fox and Friends (CBS, NBC) to add 26 teams and dilute the quality of the competition? 

 

Billionaires who would like to be NFL owners are waiting in the wings but the NFL and its myriad broadcast partners understand that there is no value in adding more teams unless international teams are added.  

 

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/college-football-programs-nielsen-ratings?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=BrettMcMurphy

 

CU, FSU (closing in on AAU membership,) Notre Dame, Clemson (not an AAU member,) Miami, Duke, and Utah, are viable expansion candidates as is UNC because of the state population and the B1G and the SEC not having a presence in the state.

 

I don't see Navy, Oregon State, and Washington State making the cut. 

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On 5/20/2024 at 11:51 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I get and respect your POV but what is the financial incentive for the B1G and SEC and ESPN and Fox and Friends (CBS, NBC) to add 26 teams and dilute the quality of the competition? 

 

Billionaires who would like to be NFL owners are waiting in the wings but the NFL and its myriad broadcast partners understand that there is no value in adding more teams unless international teams are added.  

 

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/college-football-programs-nielsen-ratings?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=BrettMcMurphy

What’s the incentive to keep the bottom half of the B1G? I think diversity of programs is what historically makes college football distinct. I think if the focus gets too narrow you might see national interest decline. I know my interest in the 4-team playoff disappeared until last year.
 

But hey, I’m just some hack with occasional insights, I make no guarantees!

Edited by JabbaNoBargain
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Thumbs up on the comment. Better to be a hack than posting numerous hackneyed comments like the guy I see in the mirror. 😁

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As Jabbar noted, cuts could be coming.

 

FLYWAREAGLE.COM

Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse could all be

 

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On 5/20/2024 at 12:05 PM, Jon Joseph said:

As Jabbar noted, cuts could be coming.

 

FLYWAREAGLE.COM

Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse could all be

 

That’s the big caveat to all my Monday theories. No way it goes to 60 if they actually make cuts in the big 2. That being said, I don’t see it happening. 

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On 5/20/2024 at 11:53 AM, JabbaNoBargain said:

But hey, I’m just some hack with occasional insights, I make no guarantees!

 

On 5/20/2024 at 12:01 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Thumbs up on the comment. Better to be a hack than posting numerous hackneyed comments like the guy I see in the mirror. 😁

Gentlemen, you exemplify the height of what we strive for on this forum, and what so many who left us do not have the guts to be.  You disagree, but do not take personal shots at each other, and are humble in your disagreement. (I wish I could say I was as noble...)

 

Was this the exchange of the year? 

Both you guys take a bow...

giphy.gif

 

And aside from being classy--I love both your takes on the topics!

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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The Playoff media deal with ESPN expires in 2031-32. But the playoff format will change come 2026.

 

BAMAHAMMER.COM

Was the CFB Playoff braintrust wrong to make a jump to 14 or 16 teams? Some college football fans thought so at the time the decision was made. Many more may ag

 

The playoff media deal with ESPN expires after the 2031-32 season.

 

The B1G is in the driver's seat when it comes to renewing the existing Power 4 media deals. 

 

The B1G deal expires 2029-30 (Oregon will be a full member come 2031.)

 

The SEC deal expires in 2033. The B12 deal in 2030-31. The ACC deal which is under attack, expires in 2036.

 

Follow the money. The B1G and the SEC are already getting the lion's share of the Playoff revenue and will dictate playoff format changes come 2026 and when the ESPN playoff media deal expires.

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Aw, shucks. 😘 Thank you Mr. FishDuck. It is fun jabbing with Jabbar.

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Gee whiz, and it's Jabba🤣

 

Hard to not respect JJ, his research is always amazing. 

 

 

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One Nielson sample size is not enough. Viewership will be affected by the opponents on the schedule. For example, Duke is in the top 32 and UNC is not. But Duke played Notre Dame last season and UNC did not.

 

CU is way up there not because of the team's results but because of Prime Time and a fast start that fizzled. 

 

The following teams outside of the top 32 drew 1M+ viewers in 2023 for Nielson-ranked games. Some are desirable additions, others are not. Some will come with the money to compete at CFB championship levels and others will not.

 

If the B1G and the SEC passed on all of the below-listed teams, would a team that could win a title be left out? In theory, of course. But in reality?

 

Arizona; ASU; Boston College; Cal; Georgia Tech; Kansas; UNC; NC State; Oklahoma State; Pitt; Stanford; Syracuse; TCU; Texas Tech; West Virginia. 

 

Add any of these programs to the B1G/SEC and ipso facto their viewership ratings would improve. But what would the Power 2 conferences and their media partners receive in return outside of bringing on a new 'profit center' in North Carolina?

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Part a; At some point between 2 & 3 I remembered the sordid history of how the PCC shed OSU, WSU and UO to become the AAWU in ‘59…then finally the PAC 8, in 1964.  Basically the bigs cheated, got busted…quit and formed their own lil’ conference of cheaters….leaving Oregon and Oregon State in independent purgatory…which took the Rich Brooks tenure to recover from.. Conclusion-  “Screw the Pac-whatever”

 

part b: the west coast conference made sense in 1915 because we were geographically isolated in the late fall and early winter as travel was restrictive unless going north-south.  God bless the turbofan engine…that isn’t the case now.  We’ve just been self isolating by time zone.  Time to end it!
 

part c…the Big 1G media and aggregate fan base have NO CLUE what they just let in…lolz

 

 

IMG_8159.jpeg

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Thank You Mr. FishDuck for the "Teds Talk" example of the classic seven stages of grief through the Oregon Football lens.

 

Your layout of what we have ALL been through the past year watching the TV Execs, implode, the once proud conference formerly known as the PAC 8/10/12, is the Perfect example of the grief process.

 

Bravo Senor'. Bravo!

 

Go Ducks!  🦆

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