cartm25 No. 1 Share Posted September 12 (edited) A topic I want to address because I've seen it said in the media, both nationally and locally. I've heard Colin Cowherd, Joel Klatt, and even our very own folks on Talkin' Ducks, make similar declarations: "If not for the punt return TD and kick return TD, the Ducks lose that game." This is a fallacy (not sure which one to be honest). Here are some of the faulty (or at least VERY uncertain) assumptions needed: - That the Ducks don't score in other ways on those two possessions (e.g., a long TD drive, an explosive play TD, long drive and field goal, etc.). - That every aspect of the game (including timing and play-calling) would happen EXACTLY the same way, just without the punt/kick return TDs . . . this is literally impossible. - That two 7-10 second football occurrences would take the place of those two TDs, both that result in the Ducks not scoring and losing possession. Don't get me wrong, the Ducks could have lost that game without the special-teams scores in that exact fashion at those exact times. Sure! BUT, the fallacy is in the "certainty" that a loss would be the outcome. Setting aside my displeasure with the Ducks' performance so far, I'm here to say that even without the special teams scores, the Ducks could very well have won the game. I even surprised myself with this rather optimistic take. Edited September 12 by cartm25 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kamikaze Kid Moderator No. 2 Share Posted September 12 If DAT picks up that block for Mariota against Furd, then we’re in the championship again. That’s my story and I sticking to it. 1 1 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 3 Share Posted September 12 On 9/12/2024 at 1:52 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said: then we’re in the championship again. And boatrace ND for the Natty. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 4 Share Posted September 12 If we didn't score TDs on special teams yeah we probably lose... However, special teams can score points and we did score points. It is outright discounting a part of the game. If special teams didn't exist yeah we probably lose but they do exist and as much as we managed to score on those plays Boise State played poorly those plays. We can flip that around too... If not for those two forced fumbles Boise State loses by double digits! See... we can ignore turnovers being a thing too. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 5 Share Posted September 12 On 9/12/2024 at 1:52 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said: If DAT picks up that block for Mariota against Furd, then we’re in the championship again. That’s my story and I sticking to it. Or... we hit the field goal in OT and win in another OT. I think we missed a field goal that game during regulation as well... though I'm not sure. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 6 Share Posted September 12 The ONLY time a game can be reviewed as if such and such didn't happen the result would be different would be a blown call on the last play of a game because the game ends on that play. Witness gutless MLB Commissioner Bud Selig denying Armando Galarraga a perfect game after the 1st base ump, Jim Joyce not Angel Hernandez, called the runner safe with two outs in the ninth. Next play was then final/4th out of the inning. MLB needs to go back and award the perfect game since had replay been in effect, the call would have been overturned. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 7 Share Posted September 12 What they are trying to explain is football is just a math problem. Yea football is a simple exciting math problem. 'Wow honey did you do the math 3+17 =20 7+7=14, isn't this exciting?' 'Should we stay for the second half and see how many more numbers we can add up, sure! Ok look at that 20 and 13 is 33 and we got 13 on top of the 14 so that is 37, yea we won.' If it was that exciting and it was simply a game of adding numbers, football wouldn't last! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cartm25 Author No. 8 Share Posted September 12 On 9/12/2024 at 3:33 PM, Haywarduck said: What they are trying to explain is football is just a math problem. Yea football is a simple exciting math problem. 'Wow honey did you do the math 3+17 =20 7+7=14, isn't this exciting?' 'Should we stay for the second half and see how many more numbers we can add up, sure! Ok look at that 20 and 13 is 33 and we got 13 on top of the 14 so that is 37, yea we won.' If it was that exciting and it was simply a game of adding numbers, football wouldn't last! Exactly!! They're looking at the score and saying, "Hmmm, if we subtract 14 points from the Ducks' 37 points, that's 23 points . . . and that's less than BSU's 34. Wow!! They wouldn't have won without those two special teams TDs." Completely ignoring the fact that the Ducks could still have scored in other ways. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cartm25 Author No. 9 Share Posted September 12 On 9/12/2024 at 3:19 PM, David Marsh said: If we didn't score TDs on special teams yeah we probably lose... However, special teams can score points and we did score points. It is outright discounting a part of the game. If special teams didn't exist yeah we probably lose but they do exist and as much as we managed to score on those plays Boise State played poorly those plays. We can flip that around too... If not for those two forced fumbles Boise State loses by double digits! See... we can ignore turnovers being a thing too. Unfortunately - or fortunately for the fun of discussion - this is all hypothetical and there's no way of knowing for certain. I would distinguish between your turnover example and the special teams TDs. The statistical relationship between winning and turnover margin is quite strong. With a turnover, a possession--and consequently a scoring opportunity--is taken from a team, and afforded to the other team. So I don't think we can ignore the impact of turnovers. However, in the case of a punt or kick-off, if it's not returned for a touchdown, what likely happened was the punt/kick returner caught the ball, ran 10-15 yards and got tackled. The receiving team didn't lose possession or a scoring opportunity. They could still score the same amount of points (or less, or none) as a punt/kick return for a TD. Another way to look at it: - Scenario #1: Post game report says, "Team A turned the ball over on every possession." It's 100% certain that Team A did not win the game. - Scenario #2: Post game report says, "Team A did not return a punt or kick-off for a TD." There's no way of knowing whether Team A won or lost that game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck No. 10 Share Posted September 12 (edited) On 9/12/2024 at 1:40 PM, cartm25 said: This is a fallacy (not sure which one to be honest). Perhaps correlation-causation. What I came up with is that taking the returns out of the game creates a completely different game. Suppose anything other than a return for a touchdown happens? The game plays out in completely different way. Edited September 12 by 30Duck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cartm25 Author No. 11 Share Posted September 12 (edited) On 9/12/2024 at 4:58 PM, 30Duck said: Perhaps correlation-causation. What I came up with is that taking the returns out of the game creates a completely different game. Suppose there was no punt, or a fair catch was called on the punt. The game plays out in completely different way. Yes! They could have fair caught the ball, and marched down the field to score a TD, taking lots of time off the clock. Thus, as you said, resulting in the game playing out in a "completely different way" than what occurred. It was actually Aaron Fentress (though the others nodded in agreement) from Talkin' Ducks that said "the Ducks lose the game without those special teams TDs." As if the combined 20 seconds of time is simply plucked from the game with no other opportunities or scenarios filling the space. Edited September 12 by cartm25 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck No. 12 Share Posted September 12 On 9/12/2024 at 4:10 PM, cartm25 said: As if the combined 20 seconds of time is simply plucked from the game with no other opportunities or scenarios filling the space. Precisely. No fallacies allowed at FishDuck 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 13 Share Posted September 12 If the officials didn't blow the Dyer call, Oregon would have won the national championship. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drake Moderator No. 14 Share Posted September 12 Length of time a fan of sports = perspective. So many ways to win, or lose in any sport. Given enough time we get to see most of them. The fact that we won was not because of two plays. My math tells me that two touchdowns does not equal 37 points. Btw…a football team can win if their defense scores more points than the opposing offense. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrw Moderator No. 15 Share Posted September 13 How about if BSU had not scored all those points, the Ducks would have not needed the contributions from the special teams. The "If not this, then..." blather is just one more cliché in the windbag sports commenters' giant bag of clichés. They're just filling all that airtime. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck No. 16 Share Posted September 13 Two of my favorites from announcers come from basketball games. No.1. After a made basket, "He can make that shot" No.2. When a team is down by say 10 points or so with time running out. "They can't keep trading baskets if they want to win" Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckley Palace No. 17 Share Posted September 13 The thing about the past is it's over. If your grandma hadn't accepted your grandfather's marriage proposal you may not be you. You may have been born and raised up a Beavis fan. Forget chicken or egg questions, being a Beavis follower is the real nightmare alternate reality. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MicroBurst61 No. 18 Share Posted September 13 On 9/12/2024 at 1:40 PM, cartm25 said: If not for the punt return TD and kick return TD, the Ducks lose that game." Whhhaaatttt??!!! You mean to tell me that the team that doesn't find the means to put more points up on a scoreboard, by Whatever options are available to do so in any particular game, will eventually come out as the losers of said particular game???? I swear football fandom life is soooo complicated and unfair. Maybe We, as fans, should have our own NIL to soothe over those "unrealistic" events! Thank the Football Gods that OBD figured this out before last week's game, whew. GO Quackers! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desert Duck No. 19 Share Posted September 13 Good teams, even when they sometimes play like crapola, somehow find a way to win. That's about all I know. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
woundedknees No. 20 Share Posted September 13 So, if LGB doesn't Clout Hout in the Snout, the Ducks never identify the electrifying talent in backup positions, thus avoiding other sensational careers... 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
