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Dan Lanning is Playing the Long Game

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The Ducks are 10-0 and it’s hard to find anything to complain about, but perhaps the biggest thing is that the Ducks haven’t been terribly exciting this year. This is probably by design; Dan Lanning isn’t coaching just to win that week’s game, but to win the whole thing — and to do that requires looking out weeks ahead. One ...

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The Ducks are 10-0 and it’s hard to find anything to complain about, but perhaps the biggest thing is that the Ducks haven’t been terribly exciting...
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I'm guilty. When I come up with my score for the prediction contest it has the Ducks covering the spread, For some reason that's important to me. It shouldn't be, and after all these weeks I should get it that Lanning couldn't care less about the spread either. (Michigan fans might feel otherwise, but who cares.)

 

The point is, Oregon is winning, just like when the Oregon teams used to be ahead, 21-0 in the 1st quarter the game is over. Jordan James isn't going to break off a 60 yard run, but 60 in 8 plays is just fine to me. This year's team has me more excited about Ducks football than I've ever been.

 

Ohio State @ Oregon was one of the most exciting games in college football this season. Neither team scored 40. Points doesn't equal excitement to me. Getting the key first down, stopping the other team on 3rd down. A sack, tackle for loss, all those make a game exciting. 

 

Tulane is averaging more points per game than Oregon is.

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On 11/14/2024 at 6:45 AM, 30Duck said:

(Michigan fans might feel otherwise, but who cares.)

That extra touchdown certainly made Duck fans happy. 

 

In the post game press conference Lanning basically said he wasn't sure what Moore was going to do with his remaining time outs. Was he going to get really aggressive and try and barrow the lead or just take a knee?

 

Turns out that Moore called a bunch of pass plays to end the game that didn't go anywhere. 

 

But Lanning wanted to be safe and wanted to ensure he won by more than two scores. 

 

I think for Lanning winning by three touchdowns is the goal. It shows dominance and creates a safety net if something wild were to happen. 

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It is interesting to see Lanning so unconcerned about developing his back-up qb's with game experience. I am sure he has a plan, and that doesn't seem to involve in game experience.

 

I imagine he can tell who is going to be ready. Seems like he thinks Novosad is the one who will be ready, but even that is hard to tell.

 

Next season we won't have a proven leader, and that leadership development seems to be passive at this point. Maybe he already knows the back-ups aren't ready to lead and will be hitting the portal?

 

In Lanning I trust, but this is one area I ponder as I watch games unfold and DG stays on the field. I doubt he is on the field to help his Heisman opportunity. Lanning doesn't seem to care about those goals, but maybe that is part of the equation, not too bad for recruiting?

 

The whole qb management, development is just another mystery we will have to wait to see unfold. I will agree Lanning is focused on the ultimate prize, for that I am grateful, GO DUCKS!

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On 11/14/2024 at 8:32 AM, Haywarduck said:

Seems like he thinks Novosad is the one who will be ready, but even that is hard to tell.

Maybe... I think it's just as much about ensuring Dante Moore has his redshirt preserved. Novosad used his redshirt last year. 

 

But I'm still surprised we haven't seen another QB in at the end of the game. 

 

But I'd also argue that I don't think garbage time reps are really that valuable anymore. 

 

FISHDUCK.COM

Some of Oregon’s back-ups got a chance to see the field against Colorado this last Saturday, and...

 

 

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On 11/14/2024 at 8:38 AM, David Marsh said:

Maybe... I think it's just as much about ensuring Dante Moore has his redshirt preserved. Novosad used his redshirt last year. 

 

But I'm still surprised we haven't seen another QB in at the end of the game. 

 

But I'd also argue that I don't think garbage time reps are really that valuable anymore. 

 

FISHDUCK.COM

Some of Oregon’s back-ups got a chance to see the field against Colorado this last Saturday, and...

 

 

This.
 

If a redshirt is even remotely in question I don’t read anything into who is subbing in.

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On 11/14/2024 at 9:47 AM, JabbaNoBargain said:

This.
 

If a redshirt is even remotely in question I don’t read anything into who is subbing in.

Just at this point I think Moore can appear in at least 2 more games maybe 3 and preserve his redshirt. 

 

Redshirt games played only count for the regular season so he'd still be able to play in the playoff if needed. 

 

So it will be interesting to see what happens if Wisconsin is a blowout and we see a backup quarterback. 

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TOTALLY agree with the article. The long game is in play.

 

The third quarter mystery isn't a mystery to DL. One of the announcers pointed out against a weaker opponent (Maryland? Illinois?) that Oregon wasn't calling plays with the O-line doing exotic things like we see against stronger opponents... it was mostly just strait ahead blocking. This is especially true in the 3rd quarter. We could be scoring in the third quarter with perfect execution of the bland plays, it's just harder to score when we are not using everything in the tool box.

 

One thing I have thought is that Dan is playing rope-a-dope in the third quarter so that everyone thinks that Oregon has a third quarter problem. I've been thinking that we won't see a pedal to the metal third quarter until the post season... then watch out!

 

The long game was not used until the an Ohio State game, when Dan announced during practice week, "we are going over the top" to his team, something we didn't learn until Ducks vs. Them came out.

 

The third quarter might not be used until CC game... or maybe not until the playoffs.

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On 11/14/2024 at 10:06 AM, Jon Sousa said:

 

One thing I have thought is that Dan is playing rope-a-dope in the third quarter so that everyone thinks that Oregon has a third quarter problem. I've been thinking that we won't see a pedal to the metal third quarter until the post season... then watch out!

 

How to Rope-a-Dope Your Competition in Three Easy Steps

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On 11/14/2024 at 6:45 AM, 30Duck said:

I'm guilty. When I come up with my score for the prediction contest it has the Ducks covering the spread, For some reason that's important to me. It shouldn't be, and after all these weeks I should get it that Lanning couldn't care less about the spread either. (Michigan fans might feel otherwise, but who cares.)

 

The point is, Oregon is winning, just like when the Oregon teams used to be ahead, 21-0 in the 1st quarter the game is over. Jordan James isn't going to break off a 60 yard run, but 60 in 8 plays is just fine to me. This year's team has me more excited about Ducks football than I've ever been.

 

Ohio State @ Oregon was one of the most exciting games in college football this season. Neither team scored 40. Points doesn't equal excitement to me. Getting the key first down, stopping the other team on 3rd down. A sack, tackle for loss, all those make a game exciting. 

 

Tulane is averaging more points per game than Oregon is.

Miami is #1 in scoring average this year.  Most Canes fans would sell their season tickets to be where the Ducks are and to have DL as a coach.

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I'm a little uncomfortable about apologizing for low offensive efficiency. 3 and out is never okay, and truncated scoreless drives that don't eat up much clock can't be part of the master plan either.

 

I think what is more likely is the team is simply coming out flat in the 3rd quarter after a dominant half, especially on offense. They just start to lose interest even before the half ends. After the other team starts to put up a challenge then, the team gets inspired again by the competition and closes out the game hard.

 

Also I'm guessing Lanning focuses on defensive adjustments at halftime, because as long as the other team doesn't score, then we win.

 

Lastly, Gabriel was put in harm's way too much last game. If Lanning is playing the long game, why is Dillion doing designed runs in the second half of a game were we have a decent lead?

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Great article David.

I believe no doubt that Lanning is playing the long game.

 

12 regular season games, (8 in a row!)

and then the potential of 5 or 6 more games in the playoffs?!

 

When you realize all the little play calls they have planned, prepared and executed: fake punt, crazy line up to kick a punt, drawing a penalty, the 12th man penalty, and so many more, I gotta believe that Lanning and coaches are very detailed oriented and have not only a master plan for the long season,  but specific plans for each game.

 

He will have them ready for the championship run.

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On 11/14/2024 at 11:46 AM, Solar said:

I'm a little uncomfortable about apologizing for low offensive efficiency. 3 and out is never okay, and truncated scoreless drives that don't eat up much clock can't be part of the master plan either.

The third quarter lack of scoring has driven me insane along with not scoring more than 40 points in a game.

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On 11/14/2024 at 12:33 PM, David Marsh said:

The third quarter lack of scoring has driven me insane along with not scoring more than 40 points in a game.

So,39 just doesn't do it?

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Thanks, DM, great take.

 

It's a long way to Tipperary and a long way to Atlanta.

 

Clock rules = fewer possessions. Playing in a ball-control conference = fewer possessions. We have not seen many 40+ but we have seen OBD cover some B1G spreads. 

 

In a ball-control conference time of possession matters more than it did it in the Pac-12. There are not as many opponents that can overcome a 2-score lead including a throw-first team like Maryland.

 

Dan's two main mentors, Nick and Kirby, taught him well.

 

BLOW OUT THE BADGERS!

 

And tie a record as a Newby B1G member, and Power conference member with 11 wins in season one in a new Power conference. 11 wins will tie Penn State which accomplished this feat in 1993. 😍

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I think the 3rd quarter is a "rope-a-dope" for coach. If it was really an issue does anyone, in their right mind, think that Lanning, of all coaches, wouldn't have addressed and fixed it?

 

Like I said in a other post one quarter out of four, with any points that OBD want to score, no team is making up the deficit. 

 

But what about osu part 2, you ask? Lanning's team will beat them again--if the refs call a clean game. If they don't, he and his staff probably have another play pushing the boundaries of the rules.

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Nice article David.

 

Another point I feel is vital is that it is very difficult to win 17 games.

 

The third quarter doesn't really matter overall if you're winning.  Pace matters by far.

 

OBD will have to play four, maybe five very good teams back to back to end the season.

 

They will absolutely bring out their A game in the third quarter for each game, just like they did for Ohio State. They "blew" a fourth down TD mid third quarter against Ohio State - trust me, Lanning has third quarter plays dialed up already. 

 

In my opinion, it would be better to lose this week in Madison.  The sting of that loss would get everyone's attention.  It would refocus OBD.

 

New England had the best team ever and lost to the upstart Giants because they survived a scare.  Had they lost, I believe they would have been entirely focused to obliterate Elon Manning and his "then lucky" Giants.

 

It's tough to win 16 or 17 straight.  

 

I'm rooting for Wisconsin this week.  

 

Sounds counter intuitive, but I believe a loss this week would make the players pay far more attention to detail than a close win.  The fear of losing big to Ohio State would look large over that three week period.

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On 11/14/2024 at 7:39 PM, Mike West said:

Nice article David.

 

Another point I feel is vital is that it is very difficult to win 17 games.

 

The third quarter doesn't really matter overall if you're winning.  Pace matters by far.

 

OBD will have to play four, maybe five very good teams back to back to end the season.

 

They will absolutely bring out their A game in the third quarter for each game, just like they did for Ohio State. They "blew" a fourth down TD mid third quarter against Ohio State - trust me, Lanning has third quarter plays dialed up already. 

 

In my opinion, it would be better to lose this week in Madison.  The sting of that loss would get everyone's attention.  It would refocus OBD.

 

New England had the best team ever and lost to the upstart Giants because they survived a scare.  Had they lost, I believe they would have been entirely focused to obliterate Elon Manning and his "then lucky" Giants.

 

It's tough to win 16 or 17 straight.  

 

I'm rooting for Wisconsin this week.  

 

Sounds counter intuitive, but I believe a loss this week would make the players pay far more attention to detail than a close win.  The fear of losing big to Ohio State would look large over that three week period.

Interesting take, but I wouldn’t advise rooting for the possibility of 2 late season losses in any way shape or form.

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On 11/14/2024 at 7:39 PM, Mike West said:

Nice article David.

 

Another point I feel is vital is that it is very difficult to win 17 games.

 

The third quarter doesn't really matter overall if you're winning.  Pace matters by far.

 

OBD will have to play four, maybe five very good teams back to back to end the season.

 

They will absolutely bring out their A game in the third quarter for each game, just like they did for Ohio State. They "blew" a fourth down TD mid third quarter against Ohio State - trust me, Lanning has third quarter plays dialed up already. 

 

In my opinion, it would be better to lose this week in Madison.  The sting of that loss would get everyone's attention.  It would refocus OBD.

 

New England had the best team ever and lost to the upstart Giants because they survived a scare.  Had they lost, I believe they would have been entirely focused to obliterate Elon Manning and his "then lucky" Giants.

 

It's tough to win 16 or 17 straight.  

 

I'm rooting for Wisconsin this week.  

 

Sounds counter intuitive, but I believe a loss this week would make the players pay far more attention to detail than a close win.  The fear of losing big to Ohio State would look large over that three week period.

I don't think a team needs to lose to learn their mistakes. It certainly makes it a whole lot easier if that happens because losing sucks. 

 

I think Lanning can hammer home poor performances that don't come with an L. 

 

Idaho and Boise State were both awful and then the Ducks went out and dominated the next stretch of their schedule. 

 

The sloppy play against Maryland could be enough of a wake up call if Lanning hammers it home and the team is receptive. I think this team has shown they can be quite receptive and that takes a lot of senior leadership who knows what losing feels like. And this team has that kind of leadership. 

 

Lots of players were on this team last who which loss twice to Washington. Those losses hurt real bad. 

 

Just need the coaches to remind them of what it feels like because the lessons have been learned but are easily forgotten.

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If Oregon is going to lose one, let it be a squeaker to tOSU in the B1G CG. No value whatsoever in dropping one to Whisky. The correction curve will be the same and the Ducks will be in the top five come selection day.

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On 11/14/2024 at 8:31 PM, David Marsh said:

 

I think Lanning can hammer home poor performances that don't come with an L

Absolutely, that's what ugly wins are for. The Maryland game was a break, with some plays to break up the monotony of 7 games in a row. It was like hooking the surfboard to the back of the aircraft carrier in the 5th month of a West-Pac deployment.

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On 11/14/2024 at 4:10 PM, criticalduck said:

I think the 3rd quarter is a "rope-a-dope" for coach. If it was really an issue does anyone, in their right mind, think that Lanning, of all coaches, wouldn't have addressed and fixed it?

 

Like I said in a other post one quarter out of four, with any points that OBD want to score, no team is making up the deficit. 

 

But what about osu part 2, you ask? Lanning's team will beat them again--if the refs call a clean game. If they don't, he and his staff probably have another play pushing the boundaries of the rules.

I'd like to think I'm in my right mind, and I think Dan has tried to address it and has not fixed it.YET.

 

Why? Because he's said that himself in the media sessions multiple times. He has acknowledged it's a problem and is working to fix it.

 

I think it is a problem that mostly takes care of itself though, I mean they play apathetic if the lead gets too big and dial back in when it's close enough to still be a game, or at least get sick of executing poorly for a stretch of time. 

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Perhaps, rather than focusing on the letdown in the 3rdquarter we could focus on the Ducks starting the games so well. "Every team is going to give them their best shot" That starts with the opening kickoff and the Ducks have handled that every week and taken care of business the rest of the game. 

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DM, thanks again for the terrific article. I agree, there is no excuse for a good FCS Idaho team that Oregon at this point in the season would blow out.

 

Perhaps this is why Bama is playing (Have) Mercer on Saturday?  Also. This is why I advocate opening against Portland State every season.

 

But Boise? No. 13 Boise would defeat many P4 opponents. Boise is having some late-season doldrums but is still odds on, especially after the Domers easily beat Army next Saturday to go 3-1 vs the G5, to be the PO's G5 representative. I do not want a rematch with a Boise team that has already experienced Autzen and would come in with positive vibes.

 

I love my friend Mike West's comments but I disagree a loss to an inferior opponent would be beneficial this late in the season. More than anything, Puddles needs a well-deserved nap. Lack of focus is understandable late in the season in the 7th game in a row vs P4 opponents against an opponent Idle the week before as will be the case when Oregon plays Wisconsin at night on the road. The circumstances on Saturday will test all of Danno's motivational skills.

 

Future odds have tOSU -3 in a conference champ game in Indianapolis. I get it but I do not want a loss and 17 games when a conference championship equals 16 games max, a chance to rest and heal up, and a 2nd-round game close to home in the Rose Bowl. 

 

We are in unchartered territory here and there will be playoff monsters. The fewer the monsters faced the better. 

 

WAX WISCONSIN!

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On 11/15/2024 at 6:39 AM, Solar said:

Why? Because he's said that himself in the media sessions multiple times. He has acknowledged it's a problem and is working to fix it.

Rewatch those pressers, Dan is very dismissive of those questions. He answers those like he answers most of Crepea's questions.

 

DG even jokes in the last ones saying hey we scored in the 3rd.

Edited by criticalduck
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Big thing to watch tomorrow is if Oregon wins in a dominant fashion and plays a relatively clean game then I wouldn't be concerned with the Ducks dropping a game by lack of focus later in the season. 

 

If they play as sloppy as they did against Maryland, then I'll be concerned because they didn't learn those lessons. Or the coaches need to continue to reteach those lessons. 

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All about the long game and OBD are ahead of the curve when it comes to adapting to this new paradigm IMO.

 

It’s mid-November and if things go according to plan we still have 6 games to go
 

Let the Terps go…let the Terps go…

 

 

IMG_1725.gif

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On 11/15/2024 at 7:59 AM, criticalduck said:

Rewatch those pressers, Dan is very dismissive of those questions. He answers those like he answers most of Crepea's questions.

 

DG even jokes in the last ones saying hey we scored in the 3rd.

Okay we are both right some of the time and wrong in our absolute statements

 

Here is what I was referring to from the post Michigan game presser:

On the lack of scoring in the third quarter over the course of the season

Lanning: "There is a trend. We're certainly aware of and attacking. They came out and we got a three-and-out on the very first drive of the third quarter, so something we want to look at and improve."

 

Note, he said this after being totally dismissive of the on field reporter lady at halftime an hour and a half earlier when she brought up what they would do to be better in the 3rd quarter than before.

Seeing how the 3rd quarter went, this was not DL's finest moment.

So he has a confirmed case already of not being truthful or at the very least dismissive of the issue with the press even though he is now on the record as saying he knows it is a problem that they are "attacking."

We'll agree to disagree at this point I have nothing further to say about this subject.

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